Pitch Recognition Issues Plaguing Brewers' Brice Turang

His surface numbers have become really concerning over the last two months, and while part of this is an abnormally low BABIP for someone of Brice Turang's speed, there is some serious concern at this point. He’s not hitting the ball quite as solidly as he did earlier on, with a lower average exit velocity on non-bunt attempts, but it’s not to the extent you’d expect to see from a .600 OPS player. He's maintained reasonable whiff rates and isn't striking out at a calamitous clip. So, what's causing the slump?

Well, he is striking out almost 50% more, with that rate rising from 13.8% in the first eight or so weeks to a 19.8% mark from May 26 onward. He's also chasing outside the zone 33% more often than he was in that first eight weeks. Is this a change in his approach at the plate, or is it a byproduct of pitchers challenging him in different ways?

(Note: All of the below statistics have excluded bunt attempts.)

What Are Pitchers Doing Differently?

Well as you can see above, the pitch mix he’s facing hasn’t been all that dissimilar. There have been a few fewer sinkers and a few more cutters, but on the whole, what he’s facing from day to day is the same as ever. However, there’s something distinct to remember about Turang earlier in the season.

He wasn’t doing a lot of damage early in the count. Instead, his strength came in his ability to foul off pitches until he got something he wanted to drive, whether that be a fastball he slipped to the opposite side of the field or a slider in the zone. He had a lot of success with this approach. Due to the lack of damage earlier in the at-bat and a heavy foul ball rate while working the pitch count, it may be more relevant to see how pitchers attacked him when they got ahead:

Grouping the pitch types together (sliders, sweepers, curveballs as breaking; changeups and splitters as “soft”) gives a fairly clear indication that pitchers have found a weakness in Turang’s game. While he did so well earlier in the season going to the opposite field on fastballs (especially on four-seamers, which he hit to left field over 60% of the time) and staying up the middle or pulling breaking pitches, the one constant has been a struggle with off-speed pitches. They were the only pitch category he had a sub-.200 batting average against in the early part of the season, and those struggles came with just a 14% hard-hit rate, so it’s no surprise to see pitchers target him more often in that way and find success.

I think Turang may have an issue picking up changeups and splitters out of the hand until it’s far too late, treating them like the fastballs he’s trying to take opposite field and being caught way out in front. I say that because you would expect that, with his approach, he’d be pulling breaking balls more often than “soft” pitching options, but that hasn’t been the case--especially in the last two-plus months.

Turang has been rolling over changeups and splitters at a discouraging rate, averaging just 76.6 MPH (after excluding bunts) in terms of exit velocity on changeups since May 26. He’s pulling them over 62% of the time. Pulling the ball is fine for a lot of hitters, but the problem for Turang is that he’s pairing a high ground-ball rate with nowhere near enough exit velocity to get through the gaps, because he’s not actually trying to pull the ball. It’s just weakly rolled-over stuff born of misdiagnosing soft stuff as fastballs, and it’s causing him some serious issues, highlighted well by the double play groundout on Kyle Finnegan’s splitter to finish Sunday’s game against the Nationals.

Has His Approach Changed?
In some ways, yes, but it takes a little bit of digging. Earlier in the year, Turang was elite in terms of how he hit the fastball. He had almost a 90% contact rate on heaters through May 25, and was one of the best in the league against 97+-mph fastballs. He was patient, waiting for his pitch and then looking to get on base by taking it the opposite way when pitchers left the four-seam fastball up in the zone. Since that date, however, his contact rate has dropped to 85%--still a good rate, but it's not just about the quantity of contact. It's also about the quality.

The reason for this is his aggressiveness when he gets ahead in the count. Whereas in the first eight weeks he chased fastballs just 9.5% of the time in hitter’s counts (1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0,3-1), since that date, he’s chased outside the zone at an alarming 26.5% rate, which has resulted in some really poor contact and very cheap outs. Instead of staying patient and using the count leverage to demand a better ball to hit, he’s letting pitchers back into the count with their fastball too easily, or making substandard contact when he does swing.

The above is taking into account his chase rates against all pitches when in hitter’s counts, but the vast majority of these are fastballs above the strike zone. His discipline hasn’t been what it was earlier in the season, despite the still-strong walk rate, and it seems to be he’s lost a little sight of who he is as a hitter. He can cause havoc just by getting on the basepaths, and he can rope balls into the gaps and leg out extra-base hits, so he will have some power production in that sense. That, though, is not his role in this lineup. 

After some home runs and big moments in May and June, it’s quite possible Turang has lost the cold focus that underpinned his early success, when he was one of the best in the league at finding his way on base. His struggles of late have impacted his offensive production, not just in terms of getting on base, but also in his ability to affect the game with his speed on base. The changeup problems are of definite concern, and if he can’t pick it out of the hand, there’s only so far he can go in terms of his ceiling. He’s made adjustments fairly well throughout most of his minor-league career, and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t find a way to adapt to its usage in those two-strike counts.

Either way, a little more patience will go a long way toward helping him provide the offensive production the Brewers desperately need coming down the home stretch, in their intense August schedule. He just has to find a cue to let him know when the change is coming.

What do you think of Brice Turang's recent struggles? Is it an easy fix? Do you see something else in his plate appearances? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!