Problem-Solving in an Unexpectedly Demanding Role, with Colin Rea

One look at the Brewers depth chart is all it takes to realize just how grim the starting pitching picture is. Jakob Junis and Wade Miley were both placed on the 60-day IL, joining Brandon Woodruff. DL Hall was placed on the 15-day IL with a left knee sprain and, according to Pat Murphy, he’s progressing slowly and is still without a clear timeline to return. Things are so bad that Bryse Wilson has been moved from long reliever to starter on a quasi-permanent basis. With the team also trading Corbin Burnes in the offseason, the rotation is a mere shadow of what it was just last year, when it had the sixth-best ERA in baseball at 3.94. 

Without their two best pitchers from the past few years, the remaining arms have to step up in a big way. As the new ace, Freddy Peralta has been fine, but not (yet) mind-blowing. His 3.63 ERA is in line with his career average of 3.81, so it’s not like he’s had a meteoric improvement. Arguably, the most impressive pitcher so far has been Iowa’s favorite son, Colin Rea.

After struggling for years to find a stable roster spot in MLB, Rea signed for a second stint with the Brewers in 2023. Thanks to ample injuries that year, too, he made more than 20 starts for the first time in his career. He was all right, posting a 4.55 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over his 124 ⅔ innings of work, giving them what a modern contender needs from a back-of-the-rotation guy. With names like Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta in front of him, he didn’t need to be anything more than that, but after re-signing with the team this year, his role has grown considerably in scope and expectations. Since his bump in responsibility, he’s posted a 3.45 ERA.

A quick peek at his arsenal shows that it’s more or less the same as last year’s. He still primarily relies on his sinker/cutter tandem, and his four-seam fastball is still one of his best pitches. However, his sweeper has made some drastic improvements. Last year, batters averaged .226 against it--not bad. This year, he’s increased his usage of the pitch from 10.9% to 17.1%, but opposing batters have yet to get a hit against it. He’s added some extra movement since last year--three more inches of vertical drop and three more inches of horizontal break, to be specific.

In exchange for more movement, he seems to have lost a few ticks of velocity, averaging 81.7 mph on the pitch vs. last year’s average of 83.1 mph, increasing the difference between that pitch and his fastball and making the sweeper more effective. Batters are also averaging just .118 against his fastball, even though that pitch hovers around 92 mph, hardly a fireball of any sort.

Despite the good ERA, though, there are some concerning secondary indicators here. Rea's strikeout rate of 15.7% is the lowest it has ever been in his career. His WHIP of 1.26 is respectable, but dependent on his defense. His walk rate of 6.8% is satisfactory, but his opponents' batting average of .243 is slightly up from last year. He also has an expected opponent average of .304 and an expected ERA of 5.77, pointing to some good fortune.

The culprit behind these numbers are clear: he’s getting pounded on his two most frequently used pitches. Here are the numbers for his sinker and cutter.