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The Milwaukee Brewers are in for a potential rebuild. Since the Brewers had an early exit in the 2023 Postseason, they have declined their options with Justin Wilson and Andrew Chafin, Mark Canha and Abraham Toro were traded in efforts to cut some cap from their payroll, and Rowdy Tellez was non-tendered after the Crew acquired 1B/OF Jake Bauers from the Yankees. But the biggest difference was the loss of two different arms from their starting rotation in Wade Miley and Brandon Woodruff. One opted out of their contract and elected free agency, while the other was sidelined with a shoulder injury and was non-tendered prior to Friday night's deadline.
If the season were to start today, the rotation would include a combination of Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser, Colin Rea, Aaron Ashby, and potentially starting pitching prospect Robert Gasser. With Burnes's trade rumors looming, the organization may need to target the free agent market to stay competitive with their young core. Here are the top five realistic free agent pitchers the Brewers can realistically sign to help retool their starting rotation.
Honorable Mention: LHP Wade Miley
Despite Miley turning down his 2024 mutual option to play for the Crew, he is still interested in returning to the organization.
Since his great 2018 campaign with the Brewers, Miley has been a constant cog in a rotation when he’s healthy. Besides his injury-plagued 2022 season, his ERA hovered around the 3.50 area.
Last season, the southpaw had a 9-4 record with a 3.14 ERA in 23 starts. Miley’s pitching has only aged like a fine wine and could put up similar numbers next season.
Miley was set to make $10 million in 2024, a sizable pay raise from his $3.5 million salary. With Woodruff gone, the team has an extra $10-12 million that could bring in a pitcher. Who’s to say they can’t bring Miley back with that price tag? Heck, maybe the Brewers were willing to bring Woody and Miley in next year before injuries anyway.
5. RHP Lucas Giolito
This one is highly unlikely compared to the other four options, but if the Brewers are looking to fill the void that Woodruff in the rotation, Lucas Giolito would be the best option. The 2019 All-Star was the veteran presence for the Chicago White Sox and putting up numbers that you would see from the second spot in a starting rotation. From 2019-2021, he had a sub 3.50 ERA and a WHIP around 1.10. The man known as Big Foot was putting up similar numbers at the start of the 2023 season, sporting a .500 win/loss percentage and a 3.79 ERA.
Giolito was traded to the Los Angeles Angels before the deadline in hopes of continuing the same magic he had and helping the Angels earn a spot in the 2023 playoffs. Unfortunately, this did not happen as Giolito only completed six starts with the team, ending his tenure with a 1-5 record and a 6.89 ERA.
Things only got worse for Giolito as he was claimed by the Cleveland Guardians a month later, and his numbers were similar to his Angels stint. Combined with his numbers from Los Angeles, he gave up 21 home runs in two months.
Entering his age-30 season, he may have played out of a huge contract, which may have given the Brewers an advantage. Giolito may be looking for a prove-it deal. A two-year, $30 million deal with an opt-out for 2025. If he were to muster up the same numbers he put up in Chicago, the Brewers could have another ace in their rotation, giving more time for Gasser and prospect Jacob Misiorowski to develop.
4. LHP James Paxton
With the current state of the roster having no veteran left-handed pitchers, the Brewers might add one in former Boston Red Sox, James Paxton.
Over the last few seasons, injuries have held up his production in the early stages of his career. While part of his second stint with the Seattle Mariners in 2021, Paxton underwent the dreaded Tommy John surgery that kept him off the field for a good part of two years. During his recovery process, the pitcher signed a deal with Boston even though he didn’t throw a pitch during the first year of his deal.
It wasn’t until 2023 that Paxton started for the Boston Red Sox. It was a tale of two seasons for the veteran lefty. Paxton had a 6-2 win/loss record for the first half of the season with a 3.34 ERA. He was the subject of trade rumors before the deadline but wasn’t traded due to injuries within the rotation. His second half of the season was lackluster, with a 1-3 record and a 7.62 ERA. His season was cut short due to right knee inflammation.
Paxton is on the wrong side of thirty but has been serviceable throughout his career. His career ten strikeouts per nine innings and sub 3.70 ERA are eye-popping. He won’t be looking for a long-term commitment at his age but may still want to get paid despite his late-season numbers. A deal similar to the one Kyle Gibson signed Tuesday at one year, $12 million should work, as he was supposed to make around $13 million before the Red Sox declined his option.
3. RHP Luis Severino
At first glance, this seems like a step backward. Severino only had 19 starts and gave up 23 home runs, averaged 11.4 hits per nine innings, and a 1.65 WHIP. But when you deeply dive into his career, this was one of his rare off-seasons.
If you look at the former Yankee starting pitcher’s stats, 2023 seems like a fluke. His career numbers are a 3.79 ERA, averaging eight hits per nine, and a 1.19 WHIP. Not to mention, this pitcher was a two-time all-star.
It is worth mentioning that Severino did have Tommy John Surgery in 2020, has suffered groin and lat injuries, and ended his season with an oblique injury. Despite these injuries, he was still putting up consistent numbers before last season.
Severino is entering his age 30 season and is coming off of a four-year, $40 million contract. But with his injury concerns and lack of consistency, last year can scare some teams away and may lower his asking price. History shows a change of scenery can help your career, and a move to the midwest can kickstart his career and return to winning ways. With the Brewers needing a middle-of-the-rotation arm, signing him to a deal might benefit them. Let's go with a deal similar to Matt Garza’s three-year contract for $38 million.
2. LHP Martin Perez
When you look at the left-handed free agent market, few options are available. Clayton Kershaw and Eduardo Rodriguez are the top lefty options but are way out of the Brewers' budget. After those two, it becomes murky as most pitchers share time between the rotation and the pen.
While that is not entirely bad for the Crew, as they will need both in the long run, the best lefty option for the Brewers to make a run at is the World Series champion lefty, Martin Perez.
Perez has had two separate stints with the Rangers dating back to 2012, where he was utilized as mainly a starter. After a season with Minnesota and two with Boston, the Venezuelan returned to where it all began, putting up the best numbers of his career, representing the Rangers as an All-Star in 2022.
He accepted the qualifying offer during the offseason, returning to the team, but it was different from the year prior. As a starter, Perez had an 8-4 record with a 4.98 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in 20 starts. He had 15 appearances from the pen with a more comfortable 2.70 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP.
Should the Brewers sign him, they can utilize him in the rotation or the pen. If we are to assume Robert Gasser makes his debut and eventually starts for the team, they can sign Perez to a 2-year deal that includes an option for the 2025 season. If the Brewers are okay with spending around $12-13 million a year, then it might be an excellent option to fill out the rotation.
1. RHP Michael Lorenzen
We would not be kidding when we say nobody can replace what Brandon Woodruff has done with the community and the organization. But if the Brewers need someone to replace Woodruff in the rotation, then Michael Lorenzen is the closest player from the free-agent market they can find.
Those diehard fans may remember that this pitcher hit a grand slam off Jacob Barnes in June 2018 with the Cincinnati Reds. He may not have picked up a bat since 2021, but he has been pitching for the Angels, Tigers, and the Phillies. Lorenzen is coming off his first all-star appearance and had a no-hitter with the Phillies.
His ERA with his two-month tenure in Philadelphia may show some signs of concern. Yet, Lorenzen had a 4.06 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 25 starts last year and is hovering around the 4.00 ERA for his career. He might be the number 2 or 3 guy for the rotation that the Crew would need.
With an $8.5 million salary last year, the Brewers can sign Lorenzen to the deal Woodruff would have had if he were to have gone through arbitration this last year. Should the Brewers want to keep Lorenzen for over a season, a three-year, $33 million could work. Otherwise, a one-year, $12 million deal would work just the same.
Whether the Brewers will trade Burnes and/or Peralta this offseason, the team must prepare for the 2024 season. Bringing in one of these guys for a short-term deal could be the best way to stay competitive. If things look bleak, they can flip these guys for prospects and start a rebuild or continue retooling this team.
What other players on the free agent market should the Brewers consider signing? Do you think the Brewers will settle for the starters that they have now? Will they look elsewhere to complete their rotation? Comment on this piece and let us know.
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