Robert Gasser and the Brewers Must Find the Sweet Spot of Efficiency

Robert Gasser’s Memorial Day start was the most memorable of his first four big-league outings, but it was not just because he blanked the division-rival Cubs in front of a sellout crowd. Gasser also recorded a season-high seven strikeouts across six scoreless innings. That more than doubled his total of six from his first three starts combined.

It starkly contrasted his previous start, in which Gasser also logged six innings against the Miami Marlins but did not record a strikeout. It’s a step in the right direction for the left-hander, who needs more strikeouts to continue producing as a starting pitcher.

Gasser sports a shiny 1.96 ERA and 2.52 FIP through his first four starts, but those strong figures are carried by a few unsustainable trends. He has walked just one of the 92 hitters he has faced, and none of the 24 fly balls he has allowed have gone for home runs.

As a result, other estimators like SIERA (4.04) and xFIP (3.99) offer more tempered evaluations of Gasser’s performance. Baseball Prospectus’s Deserved Run Average has assigned him a 4.75 mark that grades out 8% worse than average. These figures will worsen once he starts issuing more walks and allowing some home runs.

The lack of strikeouts entering Monday was not entirely Gasser’s fault. Most aspects of his performance are a product of the game plan the Brewers have mapped out for him. According to Statcast, Gasser is hammering the strike zone at a 58.1% rate, which towers over the league average of 48.6%. His pitch usage is dramatically different than it was in Triple-A last year. Instead of relying heavily on a four-seamer and cutter mix, Gasser has limited his cutter usage and turned to his sinker just as frequently as his four-seamer.

The focus when Gasser throws fastballs has been on getting the ball inside to right-handed batters to jam them.

Everything about the approach Gasser has executed on the mound so far is geared toward eating innings. Throwing strikes and inducing weak contact for outs early in counts is a surefire way to keep one’s pitch count low to work deeper into games.

“It’s great to have the strikeouts,” he said after Monday’s outing, “but I think it’s the pitch count. Sticking right around that 80 mark. I’ve been getting deep into games. As long as I can do that, I’m happy.”

"William [Contreras] is catching, and he understands the pace of the game, and he understands what stuff he has, and he's getting guys to put the ball in play weakly," Pat Murphy said. "Realizing, hey, I don't have to punch out everybody. I punch them out when the chance is there, but in the meantime, I'm attacking the zone."

It’s a sensible plan given the state of the Brewers’ injury-ravaged rotation, and it’s worked well so far. Gasser has completed six innings in three of his four starts and pitched into the seventh on Monday. His quality of contact metrics (84.5 mph average exit velocity, 1.3% barrel rate, 21.3% hard hit rate, .272 xwOBAcon) are elite.

"Why would we try to throw more pitches?" Murphy said. "This is the way he's been effective up here."

It’s not a sustainable path to success, though. The plan should change when Milwaukee’s need for innings becomes less dire. Gasser’s previous start against the Marlins exemplified the pitfalls of an extreme pitch-to-contact approach. He allowed five runs (four earned) on 10 hits. The average exit velocity on those hits was 88 mph, and just 20% were hit 95 mph or greater. Nine of them were singles, including two infield hits. From one lens, it looked like Gasser was snakebit with bad luck that afternoon. However, Gasser’s BABIP through three starts sat at .295 after the game, and his 3.13 FIP was still higher than his 2.65 ERA. Those metrics are not indicative of bad luck.

An extremely low strikeout rate leaves a pitcher vulnerable to outings in which outcomes and sequencing do not go their way on weakly hit batted balls. It’s almost statistically impossible for a pitcher to maintain the .235 BABIP and 90% left-on-base rate that Gasser did in his first two starts with such a low strikeout rate, and some correction came almost immediately against the Marlins.

Murphy revealed that Gasser came off the mound that day expressing frustration over not recording a strikeout.

"If I had a taser at that point, I might have tased him," Murphy said. "I might."

While the Brewers may not want Gasser's execution on the mound to be motivated by a desire for strikeouts, he'll eventually need to reintroduce elements of the game plan that produced a 28.9% strikeout rate across 299 1/3 minor-league innings. That starts with how he uses his fastballs.

The focus on pitching right-handers inside has kept Gasser from elevating his fastball, which plays as a swing-and-miss pitch in the upper third of the zone due to his low arm slot. He pounded that location in Nashville, helping the pitch achieve a 27.4% whiff rate.

That whiff rate is down to 15.6% in the big leagues. Unsurprisingly, many of the swings and misses Gasser has gotten with his four-seamer have come on elevated ones.

The Brewers should also reincorporate Gasser’s cutter as a more prominent player in his arsenal. It spins at a similar axis to his four-seamer out of his hand but moves glove-side with nearly 10 more inches of vertical drop. That separation helps his four-seamer play up even more.

Finally, Gasser is better served in the long run throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone. His sweeping slider excels at inducing chases off the plate, and he can get uncomfortable swings on four-seamers above the zone. He is sporting a robust 32.6% chase rate through his four starts. Throwing more pitches outside the zone will result in more walks, but the added strikeouts would make it a net gain.

The pitch-to-contact version of Gasser has been exactly what the Brewers needed, but Gasser’s needs as a pitcher also matter. The ultimate goal for both parties should be to make Gasser as efficient as possible. His newfound ability to generate weak contact bodes well for his outlook, but marrying it with his swing-and-miss approach from his minor-league career is the best way to achieve consistent efficiency in the long term.