The Brewers Have A Willy Adames Decision To Make This Winter & All Have Risk-Reward Potential

Overview
Willy Adames came to the Brewers in a 2021 trade that saw pitchers Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen get shipped to the Rays. The deal has worked out well for Milwaukee, with Adames becoming one of the best shortstops the Brewers have had in their history, posting a .773 OPS with 91 home runs and 304 RBI for the Crew as of July 24.

His defense has also been superb carrying him to 3.0 Wins Above Replacement or more from 2021-2023. As of July 24, he’s posted another 2.4 WAR.

The box score contributions aren’t the full measure of what Adames provides for the Brewers. He’s been a crucial leader for the team and a vital clubhouse presence, neither of which show up in the box scores, but those contributions count big time. So, what are the Brewers’ options?

Option 1: Let Adames Walk After The Season
If Adames walks, the Brewers are not short of contenders to replace him on the field. Both Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang could slide over from third base or second base, respectively, and the defense would not take a hit, with Ortiz offering perhaps the closest thing to a straight-up replacement for Willy’s right-handed power bat. Turang has been an OBP/speed machine who has figured out how to do damage against MLB pitching.

Sliding one over to shortstop as an Adames replacement is the easy part. The hard part is that the hole in the clubhouse Adames would leave behind would be very hard to fill, to put it mildly. Can this be avoided? The Brewers have some options.

Option 2: Make A Qualifying Offer After The Season
Following the season, Milwaukee can extend Adames a qualifying offer (QO). In the 2023-2024 offseason, the figure was $20.325 million. That’s a lot of money for the Crew, which is in one of the smaller markets in MLB.

That said, given his contributions to the Crew on the diamond and in the clubhouse, no one can argue that Willy Adames isn’t worth the money. The question becomes fitting him in. If Adames takes the QO, the Crew has to come up with about $8.1 million to reflect the increase in salary from the $12.25 million he gets. Wade Miley comes off the books (an $11 million mutual option likely to be declined), as does Jacob Junis (an $8 million mutual option that’ll probably be declined).

The buyouts for those options are $4.5 million, leaving $14.5 million – more than enough to cover Willy’s salary boost. It costs the Brewers any hope of draft pick compensation, but Adames would be a crucial contributor for a team poised for a championship run in 2025.

The problem with this strategy is that Adames can decline the qualifying option and enter the free agent market this winter. While the Brewers lose Adames in this situation, they gain a supplemental draft pick in the 2025 MLB Draft.

Option 3: Extend Adames In A Long-Term Deal
Okay, that’s the scenario of Adames taking the QO. But let’s think longer. There is a chance that the Brewers could get a long-term deal with Adames. It’s a slim chance, but let’s figure out what it might cost. Javier Baez landed a six-year, $120 million deal with the Tigers, following some monster seasons with the Cubs (which included a 2nd-place MVP finish, a Gold Glove, and two All-Star game selections. Dansby Swanson received seven years and $177 million from the Cubs following two Gold Gloves, two All-Star game selections, and three top-20 MVP finishes with Atlanta. Compared to them, Adames is hardware-poor with one top-20 MVP finish.

These oversights of Adames, while they stink, could make it very possible for Milwaukee to reach a deal before the QO even comes up. A five-year, $112.5 million ($22.5 million AAV) deal, with a significant amount deferred (say, $37.5 million paid out over 30 years), could have Adames remain a fixture in Milwaukee alongside Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio to the end of the decade (2029 without the QO).

Yes, it would be another big contract alongside Yelich’s, and that might tie the team’s hands a little. On the other hand, locking down Adames – even at a high price – gives the Crew a superb infield through 2029 and retains a crucial clubhouse leader (in addition to the on-field production).

Overview
Willy Adames has been a major contributor since his acquisition in 2021. It may well be in the Crew’s best interests to hope he takes the QO (with the 2025 team looking ready for a championship run) or to knock out a long-term deal to keep him in Milwaukee. In this case, given that Adames provides big-time production on the field and is also a key contributor in the clubhouse in ways that don't show up in box scores, the deal is probably well worth the cash.