The Brewers Only Appear to Have About $15 Million to Spend This Winter--So Far

At a cursory glance, the Brewers might appear to have a good chunk of money to spend in free agency this offseason. In each of the last two seasons, they've spent just over $130 million on their 40-man roster by season's end. Meanwhile, according to Cot's Contracts, they have just $96 million in expected outlays for 2025, and that includes arbitration-eligible players and the buyouts on various options.

Alas, that's only part of the story. Firstly, it's best to assume that the total budget for next year will be lower. The end of the Brewers' relationship with Bally Sports Wisconsin will mean more flexible forms of distribution to fans, but it figures to meaningfully decrease their local TV revenue. Put the number in the ballpark of $120 million, and you're probably much closer than at $130 or $135 million. That's not the extent of the bad news, either. Most calculations of expected expenditures, like that on Cot's Contracts, don't include the full salaries of players likely to have their options exercised.

The Brewers will almost certainly retain Colin Rea, but his contract calls for a 2025 salary of $5.5 million. Only the would-be $1 million buyout is part of the $96 million figure mentioned above. Ditto for Freddy Peralta, whose buyout would be $1.5 million but who will certainly be paid $8 million to stick around, instead.

Option buyouts on Wade Miley, Gary Sánchez, and Frankie Montas are part of that number, as are the buyouts that will lie forgotten for Rea and Peralta. So is a $250,000 buyout on the $10.5 million option the team holds on Devin Williams for next season, an option they're likely to decline because he'll make about $2.5 million less than that via arbitration. Teams don't really think of option buyouts as part of the budget for the year in which they pay out that money, though. They count those dollars with the money spent in the previous season, when the player was actually on the team. So, you can mentally lop off all those buyouts from the number Cot's is using, but they don't even quite offset the unaccounted-for salaries of Rea and Peralta.

Then, we have to add Williams's projected arbitration award back in, because he's not going to get that $10.5 million via the option. MLB Trade Rumors projects Williams to get $7.7 million, so we'll use that estimate for now. Add it in, and the real expected salaries of existing Brewers players for 2025 total about $105 million. If their payroll does get reduced as expected, that sure doesn't leave much room to make external additions.

Of course, Williams is the most notable--but not the only--player whom the team could trade as a means of opening up more such room. A trade that took his salary off the books would leave the Brewers with roughly $22 million to spend in free agency, or by acquiring players with significant guaranteed contracts or arbitration projections. It's also possible, though less likely, that the team will try to move other players with rising salaries, like Peralta, Aaron Civale (projected for $7.9 million), Joel Payamps ($2.65 million), Hoby Milner ($2.6 million), or Jake Bauers ($2.25 million). They could give themselves $30 million to spend with relative ease, given that the trades that would result in that much savings would also patch at least one of the holes they created.

Sadly, $30 million doesn't go all that far on the modern free-agent market. The Brewers would be confined to a lone high-end player signed to a long-term deal that could quickly become onerous, or a trio or quartet of lesser targets who would provide depth, rather than star power--similar to the way they attacked last year's market by signing Rhys Hoskins, Sánchez, Jakob Junis, and the returning Brandon Woodruff.

There's nothing wrong with the latter approach, but the team needs to get a better return on its investment than it did last winter. It's the one aspect of team-building at which they didn't do especially well in 2024. Hoskins, Sánchez, Junis, Joe Ross, and Eric Haase weren't a disastrous set of signings, but there wasn't a true hit in the bunch. To maximize their chances of securing a third straight NL Central crown next year, the Crew needs to perform better in free agency, and $30 million would lend them a thin margin for error.

Playing and winning perennially in one of the smallest markets in the majors requires tradeoffs--literally. The Brewers can't stand pat, even after proving twice in a row that they stand well clear of their division rivals. They also can't throw endless streams of money at the task of sustaining their regional hegemony, especially because they consistently choose to invest heavily in their farm system as an alternative to lavish big-league spending. This winter, they'll have some money to spend, but it needs to be spent wisely. Deft moves will be key, as will a trade or two to augment the front office's optionality.