We’re Finally Getting to See What a Healthy Garrett Mitchell Can (and Can’t) Do

Last month, Matthew Trueblood put out a great article looking into the early numbers being put up by Garrett Mitchell, and brought a couple of key things to light. First, he had an oddly high whiff rate, despite having an excellent chase rate. Second, he was striking out at a reasonable rate while walking >10% of the time. Third, his BABIP was incredible, perhaps unsustainably so. All of these statements were made when he had 78 plate appearances under his belt. Now that we’ve got 167 plate appearances worth of data, I wanted to revisit how he’s progressed (or regressed) in each of the areas of concern.

To start, let’s unpack his whiff and chase rates. He’s still chasing at an elite percentage of 15.8%, the best mark on the team. Unfortunately, his issues with swinging and missing seem to be chronic. His cumulative whiff rate is a whopping 32.8%, and he has an in-zone whiff rate of 26.8%, the highest mark of any Brewer with at least 110 plate appearances. Here’s how that in-zone whiff rate breaks down by pitch type.

Given this breakdown, I wondered if this was due to Mitchell not being able to time up velocity very well. This would make sense given his long layoff and how darn tough it is to hit a baseball when it’s thrown really hard. However, his in-zone whiff rate against fastballs thrown 95 mph or harder is just 24.4%, better than his cumulative rate. Against pitches slower than 95 mph, it jumps up to 35.4%, but even more interesting is how bad he has been against 94 mph fastballs, specifically. He has 17 total misses against four-seam fastballs thrown between 94 and 95 miles an hour, and an in-zone whiff rate of 57.7%. This holds little to no statistical significance, but I thought it was peculiar enough to mention.

Because of his swing decisions, it makes a ton of sense that a player who both chases at an elite rate and whiffs worse than the majority of MLB would have correspondingly high walk and strikeout rates. If he had a penchant for hitting home runs, he'd be another great example of a three-true-outcome player, but with just four homers to speak of so far, he's missing the final piece of the puzzle. Furthermore, this has been his M.O. since he was called up. His career whiff rate is 34.0%, so fans can be glad that at least he's mostly missing on pitches inside the zone.

When Mitchell does manage to make contact, things tend to swing his way. His cumulative BABIP of .371 is the best on the team of anyone with >60 plate appearances. This isn’t necessarily due to a wicked-high launch-angle sweet-spot rate or tremendous exit velocity that blasts baseballs off of outfield walls for doubles and triples. Instead, it’s likely due to his speed. His 97th percentile sprint speed allows him to leg out hits that would otherwise be routine groundouts. Take this hit against the Reds that was only made possible by Mitchell’s wild wheels, or this play against the Marlins.

With his extended stay with the Brewers in 2024, Mitchell has shown himself to be a capable outfielder. Despite the lopsided nature of his intrinsic hitting profile, his .252/.341/.422 slash line and 111 OPS+ mean he’s capable at the plate, and if nothing else, he’s got good on-base skills. Defensively, he’s primarily been playing center field, with some time in right field as well and has already accumulated 8 Defensive Runs Saved.

So what does this all mean for his future with the team? There is a ton of talent in Milwaukee’s outfield, and Mitchell doesn’t have the same star power of Christian Yelich or Jackson Chourio that almost demands a starting spot. He’s proven himself to be valuable and perhaps an offensive upgrade over the likes of Blake Perkins and Sal Frelick, but it would be hard to definitively say that he’s a clear step up.

Perhaps the future for Mitchell lies outside of the Brewers, and his greatest use is as a trade piece. Before Joey Wiemer was ultimately packaged and sent off to Cincinnati in exchange for Frankie Montas, Mitchell was seen as the most likely outfielder to be shipped off. His numbers have cooled off since the trade deadline, but they haven’t drifted far enough for his value to significantly change. With his abilities, years of team control, and existing competition in the outfield, he’d fetch a hefty haul in the offseason, and could help set the Brewers up for deep playoff runs in the future. Until then, he’s a critical piece of the outfield sans Christian Yelich.