Brewers Video
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates had a supremely strong start to the season, led by MVP-level months from ex-Brewer Andrew McCutchen, Jack Suwinski, Bryan Reynolds, Rodolfo Castro and Connor Joe. Ji Hwan Bae was stealing bases at will, and they were almost impossible to contain offensively. Since then, however, only Suwinski has maintained his form, with 11 home runs and an .859 OPS, with McCutchen and Reynolds cooling off a little, and overall, they have produced a 4.78 ERA with a .636 OPS in the last 30 days.
While Suwinski’s breakout may be legitimate (with his 92nd percentile barrel rate, 97th percentile chase rate and raw speed), he does swing and miss a lot in the zone, with an xBA of just .212 and a strikeout rate of 32.5%. The Pirates need more over-performing players to mount a realistic challenge, especially given that their pitching staff has shown real potential. Mitch Keller is having a breakout season, and Vince Velasquez looks promising for a change, while Roansy Contreras is finding his feet at the major-league level.
Threat level: 3/10
The Pirates look more like the team we expected in this past month, and barring a surging offense, appear more likely to have a significant drop off than to tread water and emerge with even a .500 record.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs also struggled mightily in the month of May, going 10-18 after riding a revived Cody Bellinger (albeit with his underlying stats not quite so promising), exemplary performances from Justin Steele and Marcus Stroman, as well as some solid Drew Smyly starts to a strong April record. However, their rotation tails off considerably with Jameson Taillon recording an 8.04 ERA, and Hayden Wesneski still figuring things out.
Their bullpen has been anything but solid, with only Mark Leiter and Adbert Alzolay showing up well. Ex-Brewer Brad Boxberger has a 5.52 ERA, and Michael Fulmer has pitched in 25 games to a 7.36 ERA.
On offense, they’ve looked much more solid and consistent than in previous seasons, with Dansby Swanson’s 19 extra-base hits to go with a .366 on-base percentage; and Patrick Wisdom doing his best Keston Hiura impression, hitting .213 with 14 home runs and a 35.9% strikeout rate. Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ are as solid as ever, with .385 and .394 on-base percentages and .800+ OPSes.
They’ve also brought in another Keston lookalike in Christopher Morel, who has hit nine home runs in just 75 at-bats, with a 38.7% strikeout rate, taking his form from Triple A straight into the majors and igniting the Cubs offense.
Threat Level: 7/10
The Cubs have the lineup to hurt teams, with big sluggers and men with high OBPs complementing each other well, but they need more pitching help behind the big two starters. If they pick up someone solid for the back end of their rotation, they could be a serious threat to the Brewers, and they look much more likely to string together a winning streak than Milwaukee do at this point in time.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds came into this season hoping to show some signs of future promise with their talented farm system coming through, but not to be in the mix for a playoff spot. However, they are currently three games back, and have some real life about their team.
The pitching staff hasn’t been what they hoped, with Hunter Greene (4.18 ERA) and Graham Ashcraft (5.55 ERA) expected to lead the rotation and be a formidable 1-2 punch. Greene has serious strikeout stuff, but a WHIP of 1.38 with an average of 1.28 home runs per nine, and an inability to go deep in games is hurting him. Ashcraft was exceptional last season, but has a 1.96 K/BB ratio and a 1.49 WHIP which has caused him serious trouble.
On the brighter side for the Reds, their infield has been one of the best in the big leagues since Matt McLain arrived. He has a 1.056 OPS, albeit with a .531 BABIP which isn’t sustainable. TJ Fridel has also benefited from a little luck in posting an .891 OPS, but with Spencer Steer, Jonathan India and McLain posting .800+ OPS, and the versatile Nick Senzel and Kevin Newman posting solid hitting numbers, the Reds’ infield has been exceptional. They have struggled a little more from the corner outfield spots, but this lineup has been a big reason for their recent success, maintaining a .500 record through May.
Threat Level: 6/10
If the top of the rotation can return to the levels they were producing in September last year, which gave the fan base a lot of hope coming into the season, then they are a legitimate force. Also, the main reason for a slight bump in their threat level, is the large, looming Elly de la Cruz, who is on a Tatis-esque tear in Triple A and could make this lineup truly fearsome. This may be a season too early for the Reds, but they have the potential to stay close and cause some havoc, especially if the pitchers can turn it around.
St Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals endured one of the worst starts to the season in their history, but have rebounded well with a couple of win streaks against the Brewers and the Dodgers. They have petered out a little in their last few games, going 5-5 over their last ten, and still struggling with a pitching staff comprised of an aging Adam Wainwright, an almost unplayable Steven Matz, and an up-and-down Jack Flaherty; Jordan Montgomery struggling recently; and only Miles Mikolas showing some consistent performances (after a rough start).
Hitting-wise, Jordan Walker was projected as a phenom early doors, but his atrocious defense in right field (-6 DRS) as well as his over-hyped bat just wasn’t quite ready the first time around. The outfield, outside of currently injured Lars Nootbaar, has struggled both defensively and offensively, even playing Tommy Edman in right field, and Alec Burleson being both a liability in the field and underperforming with the bat (given his minor-league numbers last season, they may have expected a hitting machine). Paul Goldschmidt has been his usual self, with 2.1 WAR through May, and Nolan Arenado has had a hot streak that carried the Cardinals for a few weeks, but they are still struggling for consistency. This is a potent lineup, with Donovan, Goldschmidt, Arenado, an on-fire Paul DeJong, and Tommy Edman all going well this month.
Threat Level: 6/10
Realistically, the Cardinals can’t expect to win every game by scoring double-digit runs, but it’s also clear they don’t need quite as good a staff as the Brewers to eke out wins. If several of the starters can perform on a consistent, sub-4.00 ERA basis, then they could ignite their challenge, but they are still eight games below a .500 record and can ill afford another bad run. They also haven’t dealt with key player injuries (Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill weren’t exactly performing strongly when they went down), and if any of their pitchers, or senior hitters, go down for a while, that could snuff out their season for good.
June will be a key month for them in terms of how they approach the trade deadline, as they have a lot of hitting talent in their farm system, and they will be wanting to reinforce their rotation, most of whom are free agents at the end of the year.
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