Article: What Level of Threat Does Each NL Central Team Pose to the Brewers?

[Jake McKibbin]

The Milwaukee Brewers’ failure to capitalize on the few soft spots in their schedule, such as series against the Giants and the Rockies, have enabled other teams in the division to claw back to within four and a half games of the lead. So how are those rivals doing, as we leave May behind?

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates had a supremely strong start to the season, led by MVP-level months from ex-Brewer Andrew McCutchen, Jack Suwinski, Bryan Reynolds, Rodolfo Castro and Connor Joe. Ji Hwan Bae was stealing bases at will, and they were almost impossible to contain offensively. Since then, however, only Suwinski has maintained his form, with 11 home runs and an .859 OPS, with McCutchen and Reynolds cooling off a little, and overall, they have produced a 4.78 ERA with a .636 OPS in the last 30 days.

While Suwinski’s breakout may be legitimate (with his 92nd percentile barrel rate, 97th percentile chase rate and raw speed), he does swing and miss a lot in the zone, with an xBA of just .212 and a strikeout rate of 32.5%. The Pirates need more over-performing players to mount a realistic challenge, especially given that their pitching staff has shown real potential. Mitch Keller is having a breakout season, and Vince Velasquez looks promising for a change, while Roansy Contreras is finding his feet at the major-league level.

Threat level: 3/10

The Pirates look more like the team we expected in this past month, and barring a surging offense, appear more likely to have a significant drop off than to tread water and emerge with even a .500 record.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs also struggled mightily in the month of May, going 10-18 after riding a revived Cody Bellinger (albeit with his underlying stats not quite so promising), exemplary performances from Justin Steele and Marcus Stroman, as well as some solid Drew Smyly starts to a strong April record. However, their rotation tails off considerably with Jameson Taillon recording an 8.04 ERA, and Hayden Wesneski still figuring things out.

Their bullpen has been anything but solid, with only Mark Leiter and Adbert Alzolay showing up well. Ex-Brewer Brad Boxberger has a 5.52 ERA, and Michael Fulmer has pitched in 25 games to a 7.36 ERA.

On offense, they’ve looked much more solid and consistent than in previous seasons, with Dansby Swanson’s 19 extra-base hits to go with a .366 on-base percentage; and Patrick Wisdom doing his best Keston Hiura impression, hitting .213 with 14 home runs and a 35.9% strikeout rate. Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ are as solid as ever, with .385 and .394 on-base percentages and .800+ OPSes.

They’ve also brought in another Keston lookalike in Christopher Morel, who has hit nine home runs in just 75 at-bats, with a 38.7% strikeout rate, taking his form from Triple A straight into the majors and igniting the Cubs offense.

Threat Level: 7/10

The Cubs have the lineup to hurt teams, with big sluggers and men with high OBPs complementing each other well, but they need more pitching help behind the big two starters. If they pick up someone solid for the back end of their rotation, they could be a serious threat to the Brewers, and they look much more likely to string together a winning streak than Milwaukee do at this point in time.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds came into this season hoping to show some signs of future promise with their talented farm system coming through, but not to be in the mix for a playoff spot. However, they are currently three games back, and have some real life about their team.

The pitching staff hasn’t been what they hoped, with Hunter Greene (4.18 ERA) and Graham Ashcraft (5.55 ERA) expected to lead the rotation and be a formidable 1-2 punch. Greene has serious strikeout stuff, but a WHIP of 1.38 with an average of 1.28 home runs per nine, and an inability to go deep in games is hurting him. Ashcraft was exceptional last season, but has a 1.96 K/BB ratio and a 1.49 WHIP which has caused him serious trouble.

On the brighter side for the Reds, their infield has been one of the best in the big leagues since Matt McLain arrived. He has a 1.056 OPS, albeit with a .531 BABIP which isn’t sustainable. TJ Fridel has also benefited from a little luck in posting an .891 OPS, but with Spencer Steer, Jonathan India and McLain posting .800+ OPS, and the versatile Nick Senzel and Kevin Newman posting solid hitting numbers, the Reds’ infield has been exceptional. They have struggled a little more from the corner outfield spots, but this lineup has been a big reason for their recent success, maintaining a .500 record through May.

Threat Level: 6/10

If the top of the rotation can return to the levels they were producing in September last year, which gave the fan base a lot of hope coming into the season, then they are a legitimate force. Also, the main reason for a slight bump in their threat level, is the large, looming Elly de la Cruz, who is on a Tatis-esque tear in Triple A and could make this lineup truly fearsome. This may be a season too early for the Reds, but they have the potential to stay close and cause some havoc, especially if the pitchers can turn it around.

St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals endured one of the worst starts to the season in their history, but have rebounded well with a couple of win streaks against the Brewers and the Dodgers. They have petered out a little in their last few games, going 5-5 over their last ten, and still struggling with a pitching staff comprised of an aging Adam Wainwright, an almost unplayable Steven Matz, and an up-and-down Jack Flaherty; Jordan Montgomery struggling recently; and only Miles Mikolas showing some consistent performances (after a rough start).

Hitting-wise, Jordan Walker was projected as a phenom early doors, but his atrocious defense in right field (-6 DRS) as well as his over-hyped bat just wasn’t quite ready the first time around. The outfield, outside of currently injured Lars Nootbaar, has struggled both defensively and offensively, even playing Tommy Edman in right field, and Alec Burleson being both a liability in the field and underperforming with the bat (given his minor-league numbers last season, they may have expected a hitting machine). Paul Goldschmidt has been his usual self, with 2.1 WAR through May, and Nolan Arenado has had a hot streak that carried the Cardinals for a few weeks, but they are still struggling for consistency. This is a potent lineup, with Donovan, Goldschmidt, Arenado, an on-fire Paul DeJong, and Tommy Edman all going well this month.

Threat Level: 6/10

Realistically, the Cardinals can’t expect to win every game by scoring double-digit runs, but it’s also clear they don’t need quite as good a staff as the Brewers to eke out wins. If several of the starters can perform on a consistent, sub-4.00 ERA basis, then they could ignite their challenge, but they are still eight games below a .500 record and can ill afford another bad run. They also haven’t dealt with key player injuries (Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill weren’t exactly performing strongly when they went down), and if any of their pitchers, or senior hitters, go down for a while, that could snuff out their season for good.

June will be a key month for them in terms of how they approach the trade deadline, as they have a lot of hitting talent in their farm system, and they will be wanting to reinforce their rotation, most of whom are free agents at the end of the year.

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[BlightyBrew]

By the end of June, unless the Crew makes significant upgrades to their lineup, the Crew will not be in contention for anything in this division and July articles will be focused on "What the Brewers need to do to rebuild" and "who should be traded at the deadline".  

[Jake McKibbin]

This month and early July is going to be a real big melting pot of teams seeing how their season will turn out in this division

 

The Brewers play the Reds seven times, Cubs four times, Pirates six times before the all star break, and six more games against the Reds before the end of July

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, BlightyBrew said:

By the end of June, unless the Crew makes significant upgrades to their lineup, the Crew will not be in contention for anything in this division and July articles will be focused on "What the Brewers need to do to rebuild" and "who should be traded at the deadline".  

Significant trades this far before the deadline like Sabathia in 08 or Adames in 21 are pretty rare, who would you target?

Going down the wRC+ leaderboard for non-contenders (min 100 PA) there is Brent Rooker (145) and Ryan Noda (143) from OAK, Jake Burger (145) and Luis Robert (123) from CHW, Zach McKinstry (138) from DET, Nick Pratto (133) and Sal Perez (123) from KCR, and Randal Grichuk (131) from COL. That’s pretty much it for guys over a 120 wRC+.

Right now there is one guy on the team over performing, Owen Miller (135 wRC+). I would say Rowdy (120), Anderson (109), Contreras (108) and Yelich (105) are right around where they should be, so we’ve at least got 5/9ths of a lineup.

The #1 thing that needs to happen is for Adames to come back and hit closer to the 120 wRC+ he posted from 2021-22 than his current 84 mark. If he doesn’t that’s probably a lose lose for both the NLC and trade deadline.

Next up, Urias coming back and hitting around the 111 wRC+ he posted from 2021-22 would be a huge improvement over Turang currently at a 51 wRC+.

Tyrone Taylor (104 wRC+ from 2021-22) is due for massive positive regression from his current 8 wRC+.

From there it gets admittedly murkier. Frelick and Hiura coming back from injury could be two internal options for improvement coming up before the deadline. How crazy would it be if a “fixed” Hiura came back and gave us a boost similar to 2019, time being a flat circle and all that.

Brewers full season position player wRC+ since 2018 has been at 105, 102, 98 and 104 last year. They have a recent history of being able to put together cromulent offenses.

I don’t believe their current 87 wRC+ (which would tie 1997 for the worst Brewers offense ever) is representative of their true talent level with essentially four black holes in the lineup at the moment.

Some combination of improvement from current players, plus both internal and external lineup additions over the remainder of the season should hopefully get that team wRC+ closer to where it’s been over the last half decade.

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, BlightyBrew said:

By the end of June, unless the Crew makes significant upgrades to their lineup, the Crew will not be in contention for anything in this division and July articles will be focused on "What the Brewers need to do to rebuild" and "who should be traded at the deadline".  

Health, and the people they already have performing on a level more consistent with their individual abilities, are more important than acquisitions from outside the organization (I'm assuming that's what you mean by "upgrades") & always will be.

[yourout]

Current standings aside its the Cardinals division to lose.

 

[brewers888]

40 minutes ago, yourout said:

Current standings aside its the Cardinals division to lose.

 

I agree completely.

[BlightyBrew]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Significant trades this far before the deadline like Sabathia in 08 or Adames in 21 are pretty rare, who would you target?

Going down the wRC+ leaderboard for non-contenders (min 100 PA) there is Brent Rooker (145) and Ryan Noda (143) from OAK, Jake Burger (145) and Luis Robert (123) from CHW, Zach McKinstry (138) from DET, Nick Pratto (133) and Sal Perez (123) from KCR, and Randal Grichuk (131) from COL. That’s pretty much it for guys over a 120 wRC+.

Right now there is one guy on the team over performing, Owen Miller (135 wRC+). I would say Rowdy (120), Anderson (109), Contreras (108) and Yelich (105) are right around where they should be, so we’ve at least got 5/9ths of a lineup.

The #1 thing that needs to happen is for Adames to come back and hit closer to the 120 wRC+ he posted from 2021-22 than his current 84 mark. If he doesn’t that’s probably a lose lose for both the NLC and trade deadline.

Next up, Urias coming back and hitting around the 111 wRC+ he posted from 2021-22 would be a huge improvement over Turang currently at a 51 wRC+.

Tyrone Taylor (104 wRC+ from 2021-22) is due for massive positive regression from his current 8 wRC+.

From there it gets admittedly murkier. Frelick and Hiura coming back from injury could be two internal options for improvement coming up before the deadline. How crazy would it be if a “fixed” Hiura came back and gave us a boost similar to 2019, time being a flat circle and all that.

Brewers full season position player wRC+ since 2018 has been at 105, 102, 98 and 104 last year. They have a recent history of being able to put together cromulent offenses.

I don’t believe their current 87 wRC+ (which would tie 1997 for the worst Brewers offense ever) is representative of their true talent level with essentially four black holes in the lineup at the moment.

Some combination of improvement from current players, plus both internal and external lineup additions over the remainder of the season should hopefully get that team wRC+ closer to where it’s been over the last half decade.

I don't think any trade, realistic trade, can fix this offense.  If Arnold trades for Ohtani or Trout then that is a different story(not being serious)

 I'm not convinced that as the roster stands this team can't contend nor am I as high on their talent ceiling as you are.  I think June is going to be tougher on the Crew than most.  However, I realize that I'm more of a half empty type of person.

I understand your point that you stated we have 5/9 of a lineup of guys performing where they should be at.  Taken as an offensive unit, it just doesn't work and it goes beyond a couple of guys performing better.  The offense side of this team has been so poor and we are at the bottom of nearly every offensive category that I don't believe there can be a quick fix by just adding a couple of pieces.    These are the Crew numbers:

R/G - Crew 3.95(26th)

R - Crew 221 (26th)

H - Crew 418 (29th)

2B - Crew 69(30th)

3B -  Crew 4 (29th)

HR - Crew 65(15th)

BB -  Crew 188 (13th)

K - Crew 519 (5th)

BA -  Crew .219(30th)

OBP -  Crew .306(25th)

SLG -  Crew .379 (26th)

Above is 5/9 of the lineup that you mention.  We are a station to station offense that needs 4 hits an inning to score a run and because of the high K rate it just won't happen.  Take the last series in Toronto.  3 games.  The Crew K 27 times in total.  17 Hits and 13 BB. That is one complete game of just nothing of strikeout and a WHIP of 1.11.  We don't get on base enough so when they do hit a HR it's not meaningful.  

I am more of the mind of trying to either secure talent through trades that might be a solution going forward for seasons in the future.  For example, I'm thinking is there anything that the Crew might have to offer willing to make Baltimore trade Jordan Westburg or Cody Mayo?  That might be a solution for our revolving door at 3B that might be a solution.  I'm not sold on Black at AA being a fit there.

[DR28]

Reds are gonna be a legit team possibly as soon as 2024...

They have Votto and Moose money coming off the books (wouldn't be surprised to see them spend now)

ELDC, CES and Marte are legit power hitters

Have a nice 1/2 punch in Greene, Lodolo and Diaz is tough at the back end of pen

If we don't make some changes in the near future, we could easily be looking up at the Reds and Cardinals for years to come.

[Jake McKibbin]

1 hour ago, yourout said:

Current standings aside its the Cardinals division to lose.

 

I have to say given their rotation I think the cubs are far more likely, with the cardinals and injury in the rotation away from the almost unplayable Matz and Woodford starting again this year

The Reds are looking good with definite reinforcements to come though Elly de la Cruz isn't really as sound at shortstop as the hype

[DR28]

8 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I have to say given their rotation I think the cubs are far more likely, with the cardinals and injury in the rotation away from the almost unplayable Matz and Woodford starting again this year

The Reds are looking good with definite reinforcements to come though Elly de la Cruz isn't really as sound at shortstop as the hype

They'll just move him to 3B then, McLain is a good SS.

[brewers888]

This offense is not going to get meaningfully better; we just don't have good hitters. Sure this team can win a division where all the teams are bad but the smart move is to trade the players coming up on free agency after the 24 season and even listen on Devin. Fact is this team is the 7th or 8th best in a weak national league and is certainly no championship contender.

[Jake McKibbin]

2 minutes ago, DR28 said:

They'll just move him to 3B then, McLain is a good SS.

His cannon arm would play there for sure, I think they've also talked about center field

His bat has been breathtaking and really lowered the strikeouts in May, he may take a little adjusting but the exit velo's are crazy

[brewers888]

It would almost be better for the future of the team if we didn't play in such a weak division so we would be sure to sell instead of hoping to scratch into the playoffs to get crushed by whoever we play.  

[DR28]

12 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

His cannon arm would play there for sure, I think they've also talked about center field

His bat has been breathtaking and really lowered the strikeouts in May, he may take a little adjusting but the exit velo's are crazy

I havent heard De La Cruz to CF, you may be thinking of McLain... He played some CF at UCLA.

But Elly is gonna be a star... Reds are gonna be an exciting team to watch going forward.

[Jake McKibbin]

42 minutes ago, DR28 said:

I havent heard De La Cruz to CF, you may be thinking of McLain... He played some CF at UCLA.

But Elly is gonna be a star... Reds are gonna be an exciting team to watch going forward.

I think they thought his speed would play there as well as overall athleticism, kinda like the Marlins sticks Jazz Chisholm in CF

But third seems a more natural fit, and with Encarnacion strand tearing up too, that's just an electric infield

[DR28]

1 minute ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I think they thought his speed would play there as well as overall athleticism, kinda like the Marlins sticks Jazz Chisholm in CF

But third seems a more natural fit, and with Encarnacion strand tearing up too, that's just an electric infield

CES may end up being DH... Spencer Steer is having a great rookie season, they moved him to 1B not that long ago.... ELDC - 3B, McLain - SS, India - 2B, Steer - 1B, yea that is one hell of a young, dynamic INF.