TooLiveBrew
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Carlos Gonzalez: the Coors Field wonder
TooLiveBrew replied to The stache's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
AT&T Park (.605 OPS), PetCo Park (.657), & Dodger Stadium (.736) account for 329 of his career 1,093 road PAs (30%). You can't just shrug it off. On the other hand, you also can't just shrug off the drastic gap in AVG for his career, H v. R. But like I said, Matt Holliday had a very extreme H/R OPS split as a Rockies player & has proven the idea (which I actually subscribed to at one point) that he was an overrated product of Coors Field to be simply false. I'm not sure how we can explain Gomez's stark career H/R splits, but I certainly don't think it's as simple as "Coors Field!" That would require believing a guy with a true OPS talent of ~ .740 would magically be transformed into a 1.000+ OPS hitter by one ballpark. While it's most definitely a tiny sample, Carlos Gomez's career OPS at Coors is .544 (& .842 at Dodger Stadium!). Check out Holliday's career, season by season, & ask yourself if it's reasonable that he was really a low-.800s OPS true talent all along & Coors Field was simply masking that. There's zero doubt that Coors Field helps hitters -- and especially with regards to singles. But I'm not convinced that H/R splits alone prove that a player is simply a product of the park. After looking at numerous longtime COL and/or AL West players, the 'normal' gap in OPS btw. an aggregate of 'other' parks v. Coors Field looks to be somewhere around .200 OPS points (disclaimer: that is a very rough estimate). So unless Gonzalez has figured out how to be .100 OPS points better at home, or .100 worse on the road, I think the best thing to say is that 1,000 PAs isn't exactly a large sample when talking about career numbers. Keep in mind he's played precisely one season (2010) so far that would qualify as a 'full' season over his career, as he's just 26. Two fulltime seasons would tack on roughly 600 road PAs to his career tally, & if he hit well on the road, the production would significantly improve his road OPS. For an example of a very well-regarded hitter, Andre Ethier's OPS at Coors Field is ~.80 OPS points lower than at Dodger Stadium. It's not as simple as just H/R splits being infallible proof. Maybe Gonzalez is thrown off a little by being on the road, and it's not as much about any particular park... as in, perhaps he'd have a significantly lower OPS even if his home park were neutral. I realize that's not particularly likely, but it's certainly possible. With all that said (congrats to anyone who's made it this far)... this is certainly an interesting case to examine. I love threads like this. -
More importantly, how'd the Italian do in the Sausage race? The Italian only won once, I believe. (I wasn't at all seven games.) Interestingly, Kalle informed us that Italian sausages are not a traditional Italian food. Also: instead of "knocking on wood" as superstitious Americans do, Italians instead "touch iron." It's true! He actually told me that (paraphrasing) everything they'd seen so far in the U.S. that was "Italian", they'd never heard of before... including italian sausage... which they wound up liking
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Random MLB News And Discussion 2012
TooLiveBrew replied to RightFieldCoder's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'm sorry I can't get an actual quote, but to paraphrase Adam Dunn in an interview ESPN just played mid-game (NYY@CHW), Dunn said he can see why A.J. Pierzynski has the reputation he has, and that he's one of those guys you like on your team but hate as an opponent... and that he will absolutely run Pierzynski over if he ever has the chance as an opponent. Pretty funny quip, as is made obvious by my masterful re-telling. -
Same here. Adam McCalvy has a blog post with the reaction from Randy, & he definitely keeps it classy:
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@Mississippi 2, Huntsville 0 Huntsville Box The story in this one was Braves 2011 4th rounder J.R. Graham, who allowed just a 1B & a BB over six shutout innings. Josh Stinson was no slouch, going 6 IP himself & allowing just 1 ER, but Graham was dominant. Back-to-back throwing errors from Scooter Gennett in the 2nd directly led to the Braves' first run. Then, in the 3rd, three Mississippi singles generated one more run... and unfortunately, two was enough tonight. Brian Garman worked a perfect 7th, and R.J. Seidel pitched around a leadoff 2B and a BB to get through the 8th unscathed. Gennett (1-4, 2B), Hunter Morris (1-4), and Kentrail Davis (1-2, BB) were the only Stars to reach base in this one. Huntsville PbP I don't have anything to add here, aside from saying that this is the most feeble looking game log I can recall since I took over Huntsville L.R. duties earlier this season. I think you just have to tip your cap to Graham & the Braves tonight. Huntsville Gameday
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Everton was well organized on defense for most of the game, and Fellaini was a beast on the attack. Fellaini was clearly the most impactful player in this one for me... just seemed like he was able to do almost whatever he wanted, whenever he wanted. Even though he didn't play particularly well, I still have yet to watch a game where I wasn't thoroughly entertained by Nani's skill.
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@Mississippi 4, Huntsville 3 Huntsville Box Ariel Pena turned in a good outing tonight, and the Stars took a late lead after scoring their first three runs of the game in the 7th. Unfortunately, the bullpen wasn't able to hang on for the win. After getting shut out by starter David Hale (who pitched around 6 BBs in 4.1 IP by allowing just 1 H) & reliever Brent Leach through the 6th, Huntsville got consecutive singles from Josh Prince, Hainley Statia, and Scooter Gennett to lead off the 7th and break into the "R" column. Hunter Morris added an RBI single, and Brock Kjeldgaard's FC also plated a run. The Stars exited the top half of the frame with a 3-2 lead, and a new lease on life in this one. Kyle Heckathorn took over in the home half of the 7th, & retired the Braves in order. He also drew a one-out BB in the top of the 8th... and wound up getting thrown out at the plate trying to score on a 2B by Prince. I'm not sure why, with just one out, you'd send the pitcher -- that you clearly think is important enough to leave in for a plate appearance with a one-run lead in the 8th -- to try & score from first on a 2B. Heckathorn retired the first two batters he faced in the bottom of the 8th via the groundball. Then he walked a batter... and another... and another... to load the bases before he was removed. Josh Butler came on and plunked the first batter he faced to force in the tying run. Fortunately, he then induced a groundball out to escape the mess with minimal damage. Dan Meadows came on for the 9th, and allowed a leadoff infield 1B. The Braves put down a successful sac bunt, and Meadows issued an IBB to the next batter. He got a FC at second base for the second out of the inning, but Joey Terdoslavich lined a 1B into right for the walk-off win. Prince: 2-4, 2B Statia: 1-4, RBI, BB Gennett: 2-5, CS Andy Gonzalez: 0-2, 3 BB Morris: 1-4, RBI Kjeldgaard: 0-2, RBI, 2 BB Kentrail Davis: 0-4, SB, OF assist (at home plate in the 1st... check the PbP section) Adam Weisenburger: 0-2, 2 BB Pena: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R/ER, 2 BB, 5 K, WP, HBP, 6:2 GO:AO, 84 TP (53 strikes) Heckathorn: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 1 R/ER, 3 BB, 1 K Butler: 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K, HBP Meadows: 0.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R/ER, 1 BB, 0 K I had a much longer editorial rant typed out, but I'll just go with this instead: the 85-ish pitch starts to which many Brewers farmhands seem to be limited frequently this season are driving me crazy. If it's some organizational strategy, I wish death to it soon. I realize Pena's 6th inning didn't go smoothly, and that it's entirely possible that that was due to him tiring. But if our young starters aren't allowed to learn to work deeper into games in the minors, when exactly are they going to develop the ability to do it? I also understand that player confidence is an important part of development, but this is really bothering me right now... especially given the Brewers' undeniably terrible track record of developing pitchers. Huntsville PbP Kentrail Davis flashed his strong arm once again, in tonight's opening inning: Mississippi Bottom of the 1st -Todd Cunningham grounds out, pitcher Ariel Pena to first baseman Hunter Morris. -Keenan Wiley walks. -Joey Terdoslavich singles on a line drive to right fielder Kentrail Davis. Keenan Wiley to 3rd. -Evan Gattis flies into a double play, right fielder Kentrail Davis to catcher Adam Weisenburger. Keenan Wiley out at home on the throw. The only thing you'll find from the Stars' offense in innings 2-6 is frustration, so fast forward to their 7th: Huntsville Top of the 7th -Josh Prince singles on a line drive to center fielder Todd Cunningham. -With Hainley Statia batting, Josh Prince advances to 2nd on a balk. -Hainley Statia singles on a ground ball to left fielder Evan Gattis. Josh Prince scores. -Scooter Gennett singles on a soft fly ball to right fielder Keenan Wiley. Hainley Statia to 2nd. -Andy Gonzalez strikes out on a foul tip. -Hunter Morris singles on a ground ball to right fielder Keenan Wiley. Hainley Statia scores. Scooter Gennett to 3rd. -Brock Kjeldgaard grounds into a force out, fielded by second baseman Philip Gosselin. Scooter Gennett scores. Hunter Morris out at 2nd. Brock Kjeldgaard to 1st. -Kentrail Davis grounds into a force out, third baseman Jason Christian to second baseman Philip Gosselin. Brock Kjeldgaard out at 2nd. Huntsville Gameday
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Kalle said yesterday that he really wanted to see at least one game with the roof closed. Not only did he get that, he got to watch it close. I was smiling today at home when I saw they were closing the roof. I remember thinking that was pretty dang cool to watch in MP's first season (iirc they'd close the roof after each game it had been open, just for the fans to see). Also... I'll paste my response from the 8/18 IGT here, since I'm guessing it might have been missed-- THANK YOU. I apologize for interrupting your other activities today, I feel genuinely bad about that. But if not for you, we literally wouldn't have met up with Kalle & Rosanna. You saved this thing, and I can't thank you enough. Sorry that I didn't provide more updates in the thread devoted to it. I was communicating with the people I knew were coming via Facebook, & just forgot to add more info in the thread. We were in the second row of the Yount lot, right in front of Gantner's Gardens. If I'd been thinking straight, I would've posted that info to the thread. Sorry we missed you! It was an awesome time, and we actually wound up getting to the game in the top of the 2nd, because we lost track of time. It was great to meet Dustin (pretendastronaut) & a friend of his (non-BF.net infected) who stopped by as well. I encourage anyone who's going to any game through Weds. to look up Kalle's seat locations (Off Topic, private subforum) & go say hello. He & his wife are wonderful people.
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Huntsville 4, @Mississippi 3 Huntsville Box After a rocky 1st, starter Johnnie Lowe tossed five shutout innings. He allowed a solo HR to lead off the 7th, but was able to finish the inning without allowing another baserunner. All in all, a good outing from Lowe. Unfortunately, he was matched up against Jose Lugo, who also went seven strong innings... but allowed just one hit, two BBs... & zero runs. Well, let's just say the Stars were happy to see Lugo out of the game. They wasted no time, and put together a four-hit, four-run 8th to take the lead they wouldn't relinquish. Brian Garman pitched around a walk to hold the Braves off the scoreboard in the 8th, and Darren Byrd slammed the door with a perfect inning for the save. Hainley Statia led the way on offense, including notching the only Huntsville hit against Lugo. After seeing his 12-game hitting streak snapped yesterday (going 0-5), Scooter Gennett again went hitless, but still contributed with a sac fly that plated the fourth run in the 8th. Brock Kjeldgaard, Kentrail Davis, Adam Weisenburger, and Statia were the four players to come up with hits in the crucial 8th-inning rally. Josh Prince: 0-3, BB Statia: 2-4, 2 RBI Gennett: 0-3, RBI, SF Andy Gonzalez: 0-3, BB Hunter Morris: 0-3, BB Kjeldgaard: 1-4 Davis: 1-4 Weisenburger: 1-3, BB T.J. Mittelstaedt: 0-1 (PH appearance) Stinson: 7 IP, 7 H, 3 R/ER, 1 BB, 5 K, WP, Balk, 8:6 GO:AO, 85 TP Garman: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 K Byrd: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K Huntsville PbP RALLY CAPS! Huntsville Top of the 8th -Pitching Change: Erik Cordier replaces Jose Lugo, batting 9th, replacing Jason Christian. -Brock Kjeldgaard singles on a ground ball to shortstop Jaime Pedroza, deflected by pitcher Erik Cordier. -Kentrail Davis singles on a ground ball to center fielder Todd Cunningham. Brock Kjeldgaard to 2nd. -With Adam Weisenburger batting, wild pitch by Erik Cordier, Brock Kjeldgaard to 3rd. Kentrail Davis to 2nd. -Adam Weisenburger singles on a line drive to right fielder Keenan Wiley. Brock Kjeldgaard scores. Kentrail Davis to 3rd. -Offensive Substitution: Pinch-hitter T. J. Mittelstaedt replaces Johnnie Lowe. -T. J. Mittelstaedt strikes out swinging. -Josh Prince walks. Adam Weisenburger to 2nd. -Pitching Change: Billy Bullock replaces Erik Cordier, batting 9th. -Hainley Statia singles on a line drive to right fielder Keenan Wiley. Kentrail Davis scores. Adam Weisenburger scores. Josh Prince to 3rd. -Scooter Gennett out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Todd Cunningham. Josh Prince scores. -Andy Gonzalez grounds out, second baseman Philip Gosselin to first baseman Joey Terdoslavich. Garman issued a one-out BB, but induced a timely 4-6-3 double play to keep the lead intact: Mississippi Bottom of the 8th -Pitching Change: Brian Garman replaces Johnnie Lowe, batting 9th. -Keenan Wiley grounds out, third baseman Andy Gonzalez to first baseman Hunter Morris. -Joey Terdoslavich walks. -Evan Gattis grounds into a double play, second baseman Scooter Gennett to shortstop Hainley Statia to first baseman Hunter Morris. Joey Terdoslavich out at 2nd. Byrd wasn't having any drama in his frame: Mississippi Bottom of the 9th -Pitching Change: Darren Byrd replaces Brian Garman, batting 9th. -Shawn McGill grounds out, pitcher Darren Byrd to first baseman Hunter Morris. -Philip Gosselin strikes out swinging. -Jaime Pedroza strikes out swinging, catcher Adam Weisenburger to first baseman Hunter Morris. Huntsville Gameday
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I guess I get that Dempsey wants to play CL soccer, but he's just another in a long line of footballers who use ugly tactics to force transfers while they still are under contracts they agreed to with their current clubs. For all the economic inequality in MLB, at least when a guy is under contract with his current team you don't see moves forced like this very often. Club football is really in need of financial reform, but I seriously doubt anything effective comes to pass anytime soon. Really fun to have the '12-'13 season underway, & good call in starting a thread for it, Funketown. That Soton-Man City game was really fun to watch, especially the second half of course.
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Melky Cabrera suspended 50 games
TooLiveBrew replied to crossface21's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Wait, are you being oh so clever in posting that! OMG I get it! Twice in the same thread... -
Carlos Gonzalez: the Coors Field wonder
TooLiveBrew replied to The stache's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Keep in mind that Gonzalez on the road will include playing a significant amount at three of the best pitchers' parks in the league (LAD, SDP, & SFG). Matt Holliday had significantly worse road stats when he was a Rockies player, but his game has translated well after leaving Coors. I like Gonzalez's swing, and I agree his numbers are inflated by Coors, but I think he'd be more of a mid- or upper-800s OPS guy with a more neutral home park. -
THANK YOU. I apologize for interrupting your other activities today, I feel genuinely bad about that. But if not for you, we literally wouldn't have met up with Kalle & Rosanna. You saved this thing, and I can't thank you enough. Sorry that I didn't provide more updates in the thread devoted to it. I was communicating with the people I knew were coming via Facebook, & just forgot to add more info in the thread. We were in the second row of the Yount lot, right in front of Gantner's Gardens. If I'd been thinking straight, I would've posted that info to the thread. Sorry we missed you!
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Both last night & tonight, I've been absolutely giddy about how great the games have been for Kalle & Rosanna. I sent him a message on Facebook as tonight's game was getting started that I hoped we could be discussing a possible sweep tomorrow at the tailgate. Kudos to the Crew for keeping that hope alive!
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@Huntsville 9, Montgomery 8 Huntsville Box The Stars didn't disappoint in the exciting finish department, and came up with a big two-run rally to take the lead for good in the 8th. They jumped out to a huge lead thanks to a six-run 1st, but the Biscuits fought back with two in the 4th, and a six-run inning of their own in the 5th to take an 8-6 lead. The Stars got a run back in the 6th to pull within one run & set the stage for the 8th inning dramatics -- definitely check the PbP section below, it's worth it. I really want to let the game log speak for this one & provide context for the important innings. Starter Evan Anundsen struggled in pretty much every inning tonight, but was able to keep Montgomery off the scoreboard until the 4th. Dan Meadows came on in relief of Anundsen after three batters in the 5th, before an out had been recorded, and yielded 1B-1B-WP-1B before getting lifted for Josh Butler. Butler got the three outs to escape the inning, but also allowed a single & had to work around an error behind him... a 5-4-3 double play stopped the bleeding. He then worked a scoreless 6th. Kyle Heckathorn stepped up with two huge perfect innings, and kept the Stars in this game. Darren Byrd was able to bounce back & slam the door on Montgomerey while keeping them off the scoreboard, after allowing BB-1B to start the 9th. -Scooter Gennett extended his hitting streak to 12 games with a single to lead off the 2nd. T.J. Mittelstaedt: 1-4, 2 RBI, BB ... 8th inning hero Josh Prince: 0-4, BB Gennett: 1-3, SAC, CS Andy Gonzalez: 1-4 Hunter Morris: 2-4, 2B (38), 3 RBI (98) ... bases-loaded-clearing 2B in the 1st Brock Kjeldgaard: 2-3, 2B, HR, 2 RBI Kentrail Davis: 1-2, SAC, HBP Domnit Bolivar: 1-2, RBI, SAC, E (fielding) Anderson De La Rosa: 0-4 Hainley Statia: 0-1 (PH for Bolivar in the 8th in a L/R matchup move) Anundsen: 4 IP, 8 H, 5 R/ER, 3 BB, 1 K, WP, 6:4 GO:AO Meadows: 0 IP, 3 H, 3 R/ER, 0 BB, 0 K Butler: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K Heckathorn: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K Byrd: 1 IP, H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K Huntsville PbP First things first, the six-run 1st: Huntsville Bottom of the 1st -T. J. Mittelstaedt walks. -Josh Prince walks. T. Mittelstaedt to 2nd. -Scooter Gennett hits a sacrifice bunt. Throwing error by pitcher Nick Barnese. J. Mittelstaedt scores. Josh Prince to 2nd. Scooter Gennett to 1st. -Andy Gonzalez singles on a line drive to left fielder Brad Coon. Josh Prince to 3rd. Scooter Gennett to 2nd. -Hunter Morris doubles (38) on a line drive to left fielder Brad Coon. Josh Prince scores. Scooter Gennett scores. Andy Gonzalez scores. Hunter Morris advances to 3rd, on a missed catch error by catcher Mark Thomas. -Brock Kjeldgaard doubles (7) on a line drive to right fielder Brett Nommensen. Hunter Morris scores. -Kentrail Davis hit by pitch. -Domnit Bolivar singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brad Coon. Brock Kjeldgaard scores. Kentrail Davis to 2nd. -Pitching Change: Shane Dyer replaces Nick Barnese. -Anderson De La Rosa flies out to center fielder Mikie Mahtook. -T. J. Mittelstaedt pops out to second baseman Derek Dietrich on the infield fly rule. -Josh Prince grounds into a force out, shortstop Shawn O'Malley to second baseman Derek Dietrich. Domnit Bolivar out at 2nd. The Biscuits' two-run 4th certainly wasn't pretty for Anundsen & the Stars, but it looked downright gorgeous compared to the 5th: Montgomery Top of the 5th -Mikie Mahtook singles on a line drive to center fielder Josh Prince. -Derek Dietrich walks. Mikie Mahtook to 2nd. -Kyeong Kang doubles (18) on a line drive to right fielder Kentrail Davis. Mikie Mahtook scores. Derek Dietrich to 3rd. -Pitching Change: Daniel Meadows replaces Evan Anundsen. -Michael Sheridan singles on a line drive to center fielder Josh Prince. Derek Dietrich scores. Kyeong Kang to 3rd. -Brad Coon singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brock Kjeldgaard. Kyeong Kang scores. Michael Sheridan to 2nd. -With Mark Thomas batting, wild pitch by Daniel Meadows, Michael Sheridan to 3rd. Brad Coon to 2nd. -Mark Thomas singles on a line drive to left fielder Brock Kjeldgaard. Michael Sheridan scores. Brad Coon to 3rd. Mark Thomas to 2nd on the throw. -Pitching Change: Josh Butler replaces Daniel Meadows. -Shawn O'Malley pops out to shortstop Domnit Bolivar. -Brett Nommensen singles on a ground ball to center fielder Josh Prince. Brad Coon scores. Mark Thomas scores. Brett Nommensen to 2nd on the throw. -Omar Luna reaches on a fielding error by shortstop Domnit Bolivar. Brett Nommensen to 3rd. -Mikie Mahtook grounds into a double play, third baseman Andy Gonzalez to second baseman Scooter Gennett to first baseman Hunter Morris. Omar Luna out at 2nd. After Kjeldgaard launched a solo HR in the 6th to cut the Montgomery lead to 8-7, and Heckathorn had worked his six-up/six-down magic, the Stars loaded the bases with zero outs in the 8th... only to wind up needing some two-out heroics from Mittelstaedt: Huntsville Bottom of the 8th -Hunter Morris singles on a line drive to right fielder Brett Nommensen. -Pitching Change: Marquis Fleming replaces Neil Schenk. -Brock Kjeldgaard walks. Hunter Morris to 2nd. -Kentrail Davis hits a sacrifice bunt. Hunter Morris to 3rd. Brock Kjeldgaard to 2nd. Kentrail Davis to 1st. -Offensive Substitution: Pinch-hitter Hainley Statia replaces Domnit Bolivar. -Hainley Statia flies out to left fielder Brad Coon. -Anderson De La Rosa strikes out swinging. -T. J. Mittelstaedt singles on a ground ball to right fielder Brett Nommensen. Hunter Morris scores. Brock Kjeldgaard scores. Kentrail Davis to 3rd. -Josh Prince bunt pops out to catcher Mark Thomas in foul territory. And here's how Byrd was able to navigate through the 9th to secure the win: Montgomery Top of the 9th -Hainley Statia remains in the game as the shortstop. -Pitching Change: Darren Byrd replaces Kyle Heckathorn. -Kyeong Kang singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brock Kjeldgaard. -Michael Sheridan walks. Kyeong Kang to 2nd. -Offensive Substitution: Pinch-runner Ty Morrison replaces Michael Sheridan. -Brad Coon grounds into a force out, third baseman Andy Gonzalez to shortstop Hainley Statia. Kyeong Kang out at 3rd. Ty Morrison to 2nd. Brad Coon to 1st. -Mark Thomas strikes out swinging. -Shawn O'Malley grounds into a force out, second baseman Scooter Gennett to shortstop Hainley Statia. Brad Coon out at 2nd. Huntsville Gameday
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I really like Rock. I know he can say some stupid stuff sometimes, but I genuinely like him. But listening to him talk about instant replay tonight made me want to punch something. The dealbreaker for me was when he said something like, 'Pretty soon they won't even need umpires... that's the road they're going down'

