TooLiveBrew
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Everything posted by TooLiveBrew
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Time to start looking at Melvin?
TooLiveBrew replied to bklynbrewcrew's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think there is a lot more "cherry picking" involved when trying to find Weeks hot streaks. I'm sorry, this is getting frustrating. 50% of his healthy time in MLB he's raked. The other 50%, which happens to be most recently, he's struggled. Please tell me how that is possibly categorized as 'cherry picking.' -
What interests me about the rises & falls is that early in a season -- or more accurately, any small segment of a 162-game season -- certain teams will have inherently played tougher schedules, & certain other teams will have played softer schedules. It's funny to me how 2007 was the polar opposite of 2008 for the Brewers in this regard. It's easy to forget the schedule was the main reason the Crew jumped out to that 24-10 start. I have to remind myself on a daily basis that the record which matters is the aggregate over 162 games, no matter how many ups & downs a season sees.
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Time to start looking at Melvin?
TooLiveBrew replied to bklynbrewcrew's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It's fine for fans to fall in love with players. We're just fans. But when management starts doing it, we're in trouble The ironic part is that the people erroneously 'in love' are those cherry-picking less than two months at the beginning of a season while ignoring other relevant data... then muddling the argument by claiming those pointing out the relevant data that's being omitted are just homers, essentially. Injuries matter because they don't give a true picture of player talent. If you want to continue to analyze Weeks on 50% of his healthy time, intentionally omitting the 50% where he was productive, then I guess you feel like that's the way to go. -
What is the best stat for judging relievers?
TooLiveBrew replied to sweepscc's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
WHIP is dicey for RPs, since they operate over so relatively few IP. I'd agree with BTTM that FIP & xFIP are decent measures. -
If Rickie can even finish the season with a .250 BA (I think he'll be more in the .260-.280 range), his OBP would be among the league leaders at any lineup slot. I still like him as the leadoff hitter, even though right now he's obviously struggled to get going.
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I still want to wait & see with Soto. After posting a (MLB) BABIP of .486 last season, he's currently sitting at .378. While Soto could theoretically prove to be a player that sustains a relatively higher BABIP, no one sustains it at the clip he's had over his first 230 MLB plate appearances. Once the luck starts running out for Soto, I think we'll have a much better view of what he is as a batter. Basically, he's batting .317 with a BABIP that's 78 points above 'normal'. Let's see where he is when that BABIP levels out a bit.
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Having a 2 hitter that is a 3TO kind of guy is actually a bit of a boon, in my mind, because it removes a lot of the temptation for the manager to employ 1 run strategies that give up outs right before the best hitters come up. Well-said. I do like this one thing about Ned -- he doesn't play small ball very often. We're lucky in that regard. It's shocking to me how many MLB managers 'know' that giving up outs is the way to 'get things started.'
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But what if, instead of just dumb, it was something arrogant & trite? Basically telling you to go pound sand, to borrow from FtJ. What bugs me about Haudricourt is his unfounded arrogance. He's got facts to report, like that trade of Greg Gross.
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Time to start looking at Melvin?
TooLiveBrew replied to bklynbrewcrew's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Well, they do have the talent though, that's the problem. When people selectively sample players' production & largely ignore the impact injuries have had, they can make a lot of statements like 'They don't have talent'. Rushing judgment is certainly on the fans that choose to do so. -
It'd be far more professional to just ignore someone when contrasted with the baiting/taunting that TH has been known to do. Iirc, he does much of the same stuff in the comments segment of the blog.
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Cameron has more K's than Hardy in 24 fewer games. Hall has twice as many. Both Cameron & Hall are high strikeout guys. I don't think there's any reason for JJ's OBP being higher other than his 40-points-higher BA. it is a tight three way battle for worst hitter between Hall, Cameron, and Hardy, with Weeks in the mix. I would go for Hall as the worst hitter right now, just because of his terrible average, OBP, and K's. But a good argument could be made for the others. It sucks having so many candidates for this title. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif
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Weeks isn't injured right now, having an awesome month and a half to end 2007 is great, but he's had an awful first month and a half of 2008..kind of cancels itself out if you ask me I never said he was injured right now. We have roughly 4 months of 'healthy' data. What's troubling to me is that not only are people willing to use that small a sample to start saying that 'he's not right', they're using half that sample to say so... when there's an equal or greater portion where Weeks put up MVP caliber numbers. Does it not count since it was last season? If you're arguing that it "cancels it out", shouldn't your opinion be that we need to not make a rushed statement about Rickie? That would put him at 'neutral' if it cancels out.
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I wasn't using only this year's performance, but indicating his BA is going the wrong direction. Players of his age should be improving, but he's not improving offensively. Something is wrong. What I think is wrong is that you're trying to use appx. half of the healthy service time Weeks has had in MLB (the past month +) to make a definitive statement about his skill. You still seemingly choose to ignore that he's had an equal if not greater length of time with monstrous production while healthy. Using BA as the measuring stick to boot is just not an accurate way to get a feel of player development... especially when you're basically cherry-picking the most recent 2 months when he's struggled. I'm not saying you're intentionally doing so, but why you wave the 'he's in trouble' flag without being objective is confusing to me. Rickie would probably benefit from being moved down in the order, but I don't think the lineup overall is hot enough for it to make much difference. Moving Hart to leadoff would just create a hole behind Fielder, and I think Hart at #5 is more important than Rickie moving down. Kendall moving to the leadoff spot is not a good idea imo. Weeks is one 5 or 6-game hot streak away from people starting to ignore his BA, since it could spike quite a bit with such a spurt. I don't question 'if' with Weeks, but 'when' -- and both of these statements apply to Cameron for me as well.
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Time to start looking at Melvin?
TooLiveBrew replied to bklynbrewcrew's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'm really starting to believe that Melvin would rather go down with Yost than just fire him. I really think that Melvin sees the situation if he were to fire Yost & the team didn't pick up its play -- he'd likely be out the door at the end of the season, too. I think Yost will only be fired if Doug's job security becomes imminently threatened. He may prove to be the safety net for Melvin. I'm starting to believe Attanasio doesn't have the stones to fire either one of them. Or maybe he recognizes that it's not exactly a GM's or manager's doing when guys with as much talent as Weeks/Cameron/Hardy, etc. just haven't gotten hot at the plate yet. I don't know what other managers' tenures have to do with evaluating Yost. -
I have no idea how old you are, but i'm in my 30's so i grew up watching the Brewers play in the AL. During that time, i had no real strong opinion about the DH, i just loved baseball and certainly wasn't against the DH. Once we moved to the NL, i was older and now i watch the game differently and more in depth compared to my younger days where i mainly just like seeing home runs, exciting plays, and hopefully the Brewers winning. I'm mid-20s, and still very much remember the DH @ County Stadium. It's not that I miss it, per se, as I enjoy many of the (NL) strategical elements that you mentioned. I just don't want to see pitchers bat. I think it's unnecessary & antiquated -- and honestly it doesn't have anything to do with my desire to see 9-7 ballgames as opposed to 3-2 games. I just want to see people that are trained to hit at the highest level doing so, bc imo that's the best quality & most competitive game being put on the field. The interesting wrinkle to me is the few SP that can hit. I love how that changes the competitive balance. I enjoy watching a good hitting pitcher like Gallardo or Owings get to bat. And they still can on any AL club. I think there should be a way to 'reward' teams for batting the P, but I have no idea what that reward should be.
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No they don't -- each of the 4 off-days is used to help get their body & mind back into starting shape. There's some time here & there for hitting, but not anywhere near the amount that position players have. I can't begrudge you the point on Ortiz, but I think the views taken on this issue are contrarian to a degree (yet ironically complimentary) -- I like the DH bc it takes a poor bat out of the lineup (& it's not mandatory, either... so YoGa, for example, could still hit), not because it gets a poor glove off the field.
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why stop with using the current DH system so bad fielders don't have to pick up a glove and pitchers not have to hit? Because all the position players have enough time to fully prepare to hit... P don't. Is a major disconnect btw. our stances that you feel the DH is in place more to get a bad glove off the field... whereas I see it as a way to get a bad bat out of the lineup? Honest question. MLB is full of terrible hitting catchers and nearly all backup catchers are extra bad hitters. So let's not make them bat either and add a second DH. Who would rather see poor hitting catchers bat when we could instead insert a better hitter in their place with a second DH? Just go ahead and specialize the game completely so only good defensive players are on the field and only good hitters have to bat. I think the hyperbole involved in your post illustrates why it'd be a bad idea to arbitrarily let any position get a DH (not to mention that the quantity of great-hitting DH is not nearly as big as some people believe). I'm not in favor of that at all. All position players get enough time/reps in to hit to the best of their ability, even C/backup C's. To me the question is like the 'courtesy runner' in little-league for the catcher. It wasn't created to get a faster runner out in place of a slow one, but to give the C more time to get his gear on for the next half-inning. The fact that it makes the most sense to use a fast(er) runner is independent from the goal of the rule.
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What else does a manager do besides write out a lineup card and then make a few changes during the game? He manages SP/RP usage, has input on roster moves like callups, helps formulate scouting reports (I'd hope), and I'm sure much more that I don't know, including player morale -- I just disagree that the morale angle is or should be near the top of the list, and further disagree that it's just 'mak[ing] a few changes during the game'. That kind of roster management is crucial to a team's success. My point is that bashing Ned has turned into something that is cool to do. Does it matter if it's cool or not? I think both sides of the debate have very relevant points.
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I personally don't agree that it's apples to oranges (the CP/platoon examples are great imo... specialized roles...), but I also don't think we'll accomplish much by carrying on. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
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"(Owner) Mark Attanasio and I sat six feet from Ned (at Fenway Park) and we saw him cheering and rooting on his palyers. He was on the top step, trying to get the guys going. When players don['t perform well, they will hang their heads at times. Ned was there to make sure that didn't happen. "He doesn't sit back on the bench. He's a cheerleader, on the top step, showing them he's behind them." How much does cheerleading actually have to do with a manager's duties? Couldn't that be described as a bench coach's duties? If Melvin is convinced that a manager rah-rah-ing his players is one of the position's top responsibilities, that concerns me.
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Honest question -- You would rather watch Fielder struggle along defensively & Ben Sheets batting than seeing Overbay at first, & both Prince + Lyle in the lineup? The opinion that a guy 'has' to be good defensively is one I don't share, since all 8 defensive positions are played anyway... it's not like AL teams get to automatically use a GG'er in place of their DH. So to me, the question does come down to preferring to see a P or a batter at the plate. If the argument is that there should be no DH bc a guy has to be able to field a position, it inherently means P's need to bat. I think a guy like Ortiz would still be getting everyday PT, since a hitter like him is too important to not have in the lineup. The product on the field is a better one with the DH -- less butchers in the field, & less 'butchers' (P) at the plate. It's not that Ortiz 'can't' play 1B (he'd probably be about as good as Prince), it's that the Red Sox have a better gloveman in Youkilis, and they can put an overall better team on the field (offensively & defensively) utilizing the DH. I understand the 'purist' stance, I just don't necessarily agree with it. What I want to see as a fan is that 'best' team on the field. If that meant Overbay at 1B & Prince DH'ing, that'd be fine for my personal tastes.
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I just think it's wise to keep in mind that Rickie was injured for 2006 through the beginning of Aug. 2007. Imho we've had roughly 4 months of healthy Rickie Weeks. I don't want to base any analysis off 4 months, especially when there's an extreme split nearly right down the middle in terms of his production. I don't think Weeks is going to produce those Aug./Sept. #s for a full season, but I certainly don't think the first month + of 2008 is where his true talent lies, either.
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Do you have a source for that?! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
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Definitely below, man. I 'got' it.
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.500 by June 1st...all will be good
TooLiveBrew replied to BrewCityUnit's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
On May 19th, 2007 Milwaukee 26-17 Chicago 20-21 5.0 GB On June 1st, 2007 Milwaukee 31-24 Chicago 22-30 7.5 GB So... wait -- two months of a season doesn't tell you everything?