thebruce44

You could be missing out on another 5 years of growth before the correction though.

If you withdraw over time it really doesn't matter if the cycle is based on timing or price. I am in crypto for the long run as I think it is a disruptive technology, so therefore I should be investing for the long term. That being said, I think the question to ask yourself is, if I withdraw now, will I be able to buy the same amount after the bubble bursts for a smaller amount. Yes- it is totally trying to time the market, so hopefully history continues to repeat itself and models are correct. I am not aware of another investment vehicle that has an event built into its protocol that changes its value in fixed intervals...and one that is still relatively unknown technically and with a low barrier to entry- the perfect storm for uninformed moon boys investing because of memes or Elon tweets to further drive the volatility. Anyway, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. We'll see how the next 10 months go.

The model I've been looking at models scarcity in terms of stock to flow ratio. You will find lots of good information if you Google BTC stock to flow. I won't pretend to fully understand it, but the cyclical nature of BTC seems obvious to me at this point. Essentially I think BTC will be worth more in the coming months than it was worth over the last year when I was buying. I think charting the past cycles can help estimate how this cycle will proceed. Cashing out throughout the run up means you don't need to guess at the peak.

My ETH and IOTA are doing very well over the last month. And looking at the historical cycles, we have a very long way to go this round. I'm not going to try to convince anyone to invest, because it is so volatile. That being said, most of the analysts I follow have the top of the BTC cycle at $250k - $280k. If ETH and other alt coins follow, that could mean ETH at $20,000. I plan to start taking profits at set intervals after BTC hits $100k. If everything crashes before then, so be it- I will still be up from all of my purchases over 2018/19. Getting in now is riskier, but I think can still be profitable. Just don't invest in Dodgecoin.

If by "publicly bash" you mean publish opinions based on thorough research on the financial performance, financial stability, competition, and industry, then I guess you can say they "publicly bash" the company they are shorting. Citron Research has one of the best track records of exposing fraud in the corporate sector, and many of the companies that they have recommended shorting were because they were engaging in fraud (including bulletin-board pump-and-dump schemes). Is that "publicly bashing"? This certainly isn't my area of expertise, but how do you reconcile what you are saying with this interview? It definitely sounds like manipulation and like it happens all the time. "What's important when you're in that hedge fund mode, is to not do anything remotely truthful. Because the truth is so against your view, that it's important to create a new view, to create a fiction." "Then you call the (Wall Street) Journal and get the bozo reporter in Research in Motion and you would feed that (rival) Palm's got a killer it's going to give away. These are all the things you must do on a day like today, and if you're not doing it, maybe you shouldn't be in the game." “It might cost me $15 million or $20 million to knock RIM down but it would be fabulous because it would beleaguer all the moron longs who are also keying on Research in Motion." "A lot of times when I was short at my hedge fund ... meaning I needed (a stock) down, I would create a level of activity beforehand that could drive the futures. It’s a fun game and it’s a lucrative game." "Who cares about the fundamentals? The great thing about the market is that it has nothing to do with the actual stocks." - Jim Cramer, hedge fund manager from 1987-2001, Dec 2006 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpMEFtPZJLc

I think most people are understating how big of a deal this is. Here is a post from WSBs, edited so it can be posted here. Of course its overly dramatic, but interesting none the less. At this point, you've got millions under 40 who have been screwed over repeatedly and with nothing to lose. Their spite can outlast these hedge funds. There doesn't need to be an actual end goal besides stirring the pot.

This is why I like crypto. I don’t own much, but its very existence might force central banks to act more responsibly. Competition is good. The text attached to the Bitcoin genesis block was "the Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks". This was the ultimate goal. You can argue Bitcoin has strayed from the original vision, since it is now somewhat centralized in mining pools and requires so much energy. It is also not an efficient way to transfer money. The protocol has not advanced, hence the idea of it being a store of value. I am not going to argue for Bitcoin though. I own a bit because I see it as a good investment in this current cycle. Most of my investment is in Ethereum and I hold a lot of IOTA, though that hasn't been a great investment so far. I view ETH as the next stage of distributed ledger technology, and IOTA as the next stage after ETH. These technologies could change so much more than just finance in the long run.

Go put your house money into it and let us know how it goes. I did break out $5k to put into Btc and Eth. Everything else will sit on the sidelines for 10 months. Adding that $5k to some Eth and IOTA I've had for a long time. Looking at historical cycles, I hope that needing to pull money back in the fall will make me not wait too long for everything to fall apart again. Of course, I know this is not sound investing, but at least I'm not putting in more than I can afford to lose.

Still no discussion here about Bitcoin or other Cryptos...that tells me there is still a long runway to the next peak.

If you are not going to be making a big purchase any time soon like a car or a house then this is of little concern. Or if you plan to purchase auto insurance, change jobs, etc. And your credit score isn't something you can quickly change when you do want a loan. Just sayiing, something to keep in mind. Something to keep in mind, absolutely. If done correctly, opening cards to get free stuff can actually improve your credit.

Not 'cutting the cord' related, but a youtube channel I sometimes watch is of a younger couple who traveled the world for two years. They said that for a year before they left they signed up for a huge number of travel cards to get those sign-up bonus miles and those "spend $2000 in the first two months for a bonus" cards. Definitely a lot to manage, but it did get them a lot of free flights. Similarly, I have a planned $4000 purchase coming up, so I got the Capital One card just to get that initial-spending bonus. You should check out the churning subreddit on Reddit. The Chase Sapphire Reserve or Preferred are typically the most coveted first cards to get. When my wife and I got married I signed up for a couple cards and payed for everything that way. A decent amount of our honeymoon was free or upgraded because of that. We've also managed to stay at some of the nicest Hyatt hotels in the world for free or very cheap. Of course, I haven't kept up and stayed as organized as I used to. My New Years resolution is to look through my cards and figure out what to cancel.

I just had the same conversation with my mother in law who claimed you can always get a safe 3-4%. It just doesn't exist right now and I am not going to spend a ton of time trying to eek out an additional .05%, which equates to $100 over the course of a year. Sadly, I will just plan to park that money and will probably have to buy back into the housing market sooner than later. I'm in LA, so things are still increasing roughly 10% year over year.

A year or two is too long to have that money sitting on the sidelines. Bitcoin or anything volatile? No. But there's plenty of "safe" stocks that will yield 2-3% in dividends, and if the stocks go up even a little you'll get a total return of 5-7%. Even if you're not comfortable with an individual stock, get an ETF that maximizes dividends. I basically keep my emergency funds in a money market that regularly get 2-3% for no risk. Unlike CDs, I can take out the money as needed. Check out: https://fundsus.dws.com/us/en-us/products/money-market-funds.html I'm not seeing a money market account on there that is 2-3%. I have been unable to find anything over 0.75%. Obviously if I can make 2-3% with no risk that would be ideal.

Our house is finally selling today. I should get a large amount of cash from the deal and will hopefully need that again in a year or two as another down payment. I so want to throw some of it into the market or Bitcoin, but I know better. It is going to suck to watch housing increase in value while I make a .01% return in a savings account.

I'm with turbo on this one. Maybe because we're from the same generation? Just turn on the TV and click to 31..and the Brewers! Also my eclectic taste in sports, so the niche channels offered get utilized often. This reminded me of how my parents used to call me from Milwaukee when I lived in Chicago and tell me to turn on 31 because a local highschool game was on. I would have to explain that the channel was local to Milwaukee only, and even if it was a national channel the numbers were different in different areas. The extreme example of the generational thing.

If you stick with just season 1 of True Detective you'll love it. Started this last night, and I'm absolutely hooked after 1.5 episodes. Is it truly best to just stop after Season 1? Are there any redeeming qualities of 2 or 3? I'll go against the grain and say that I thought Seasons 2 and 3 of True Detective were both pretty good. As good as the Wire, no. As good as Season 1 True Detective, no. I think these seasons got a bad wrap just because of how high the bar was set. TD episodes 4-8 were the best TV I've ever watched, and that includes recent viewings of The Wire, Sopranos, and Better Call Saul (& some BB refreshing). If TD Season 1 never came out I feel like Season 2 and 3 would be pretty highly regarded.

Living in Chicago, and now LA, I have been able to watch the Brewers for free the last 2 years because I get a free MLB account through T-Mo. It's been awesome.

The Wire has been on my to do list for ages, have just never gotten around to seeing it... So HBO is currently free? No, a selection of HBO shows are free. Here is a link: https://www.hbo.com/hbo-news/watch-hbo-free-no-subscription My wife and I also enjoyed Big Little Lies- it was pretty intense. We plan to watch Sopranos next.

My wife and I are finally binging The Wire. We have HBO, but just so everyone knows, a bunch of their shows are free right now online.

Why would you be saving for retirement while working to establish your emergency fund? Or were you comfortable having less than $10k as your amount? Just curious. I'm guessing we are around the same age. Our generation will have been hit by two massive recessions while trying to start families and get our lives in order. My family is in a really good place at this point in time, but man has it been exhausting. I don't think people should have to be as frugal and financially educated as my wife and I have become. Yes, we did it through hardwork, but I don't blame anyone else for not also doing so. FWIW, I'm 37, own investment property, have been maxing 401ks and IRAs for 7 or 8 years, have taxable investments, and still do not feel financially secure.

People like me who own rental property and have to pay that mortgage, whether my renters pay their rent or not. Don't you have a safety fund in place to be able to weather this lack of income?

The S&P 500 crashed, what, 30%? The question is if that priced in all the damage to come. I'd say it really happens how long this lasts. I think that drop priced in a significant shelter in place order. If those restrictions are eased and another wave of this hits, I think there is going to be another drop.

I completely hated Ad Astra and I can't remember why but I hated it. Having your plane land and missing the end is probably the best possible way to watch Ad Astra.

Believe me that annoys me to only being able to embed three quotes...how do you get around that?? I don't know how to do it. If you're going three quotes deep you're doing something wrong. Just delete what isn't relevant, make your point, then move on.

I think this is another case of the Brewers FO being creative at the deadline. We can't just look at the individuals players to evaluate the trades- we have to factor in their role on this team in September. These players will hopefully keep us in the playoff picture through August, and then come September we now have a bunch of 2-3 inning high 90s out-getters to throw at the opposing team in whatever order matches up best. We are going quantity over quality as that is were Stearns sees potential value right now. Let your quality starters get healthy and align through the next 2 months and hope you make it into the show. Its the best we could do this year and doesn't mortgage 2020, 2021, or 2022.