LouisEly

There are risks with acquiring Guerra, but those risks are mitigated by the fact that he is cheap and under team control for a while. He doesn't have a track record, but guys who produce at a high level for >100 IP at the major league level AND are cheap and under team control for a while are rarely if ever available. There are quality starters with a longer track record who are available, but they will cost $15-20M/year. A quality major league starter who makes less than $1M/year is a huge, huge asset. Simply the fact that he is cheap, under control, and has produced at a high level as a starter in the majors makes it highly unlikely to me that the Brewers can't obtain a couple of top prospects for him. There are risks with Guerra, but there are risks with prospects too. Guerra may flame out, but so do prospects.

Pretty good salary dump by the Dodgers to unload Kendrick and his $10M salary for 2017. Now sitting at $171M committed for 2017, if they can move Puig and McCarthy to the Brewers they will be sitting at $152M. The x-factor is going to be Grandal; MLBTradeRumors is estimating him at $5.3M in arby. I think that's a little low, but let's say $5.5M. If the Dodgers can get someone to take Arruebarrena off their hands ($5.5M) there is a chance that they could add Braun and still come in under the luxury tax limit, but that would likely mean neither Turner nor Jansen are back. Pretty huge if the Dodgers can get under the luxury tax and add Braun. If they can be creative with Jansen - not sure what the rules are for salary increases from one year to the next or over the life of a deal - they have another $29M coming off the books in 2018 with Crawford and Guerrero, and possibly another $15M if Ethier's option doesn't vest.

Liberty Mutual. First, they won't let you get a quote for moving to a new state on-line, you have to call. I called a couple of weeks ago, and they quoted me $1400/year for the same policy I had in St. Louis, an almost 50% increase. Well, I have 30 days, so I want to shop around. AAA quotes me $920/year on-line, same limits. Not so simple as switching, I have overarching umbrella liability and business owners (rental property), and usually they want the umbrella to be with the same company as the other policies, so it likely means moving all of my policies. I just called Liberty Mutual back, as the quote I got a few weeks ago was expired. The rate is no longer good, and the rate they quoted me today is... ... go ahead and take a guess... ... $1887/year. A 33.6% increase over what they quoted me on October 18th. Who in the hell do they think they are that they can get away with that? Next stop, AAA, followed by a letter with the two quotes to the state insurance commissioner because that type of increase over a couple of weeks is criminal.

It's not just the thin air there, it's also pretty dry with low humidity. Curveballs work by the seams creating friction with the air, and humidity in the air will slow down balls once they are hit. When the air is thin there isn't as much to create friction with the seams which results in less break on curveballs. The most effective pitchers there change speeds (Burgos is a changeup specialist). Read a couple of months back that players commented that it's tough pitching there, but they admit that it makes you a better pitcher because you really have to execute - you can't get away with being lazy and having poor technique. The flip side is that it can effect your confidence, which is very important, but we've seen Peralta, Jungmann, and Lopez pitch very well after leaving there. Hopefully it's because CS forces you to develop good habits and really focus on mechanics.

Cook County just passed a "soda tax", similar to what some other cities have done. This I have no issue with. I do have an issue with the fact that it is not just soda, it includes iced tea and lemonade. It's a penny per ounce, which doesn't sound like much, until you factor that it takes my ~$3 gallon of diet green tea - of which I have a glass every morning - and turns it into $4.28. (It's 25 miles from where I work to Woodman's in Kenosha... I wonder what the break-even point is on the number of gallons I have to buy.) Beverages are already taxed at a supplemental 3% on top of sales tax - a total of 13.25% - adding another $0.40 to my green tea. Isn't green tea supposed to be healthy for you? The biggest issue I have is that my diet green tea is far, far healthier than sugary things that aren't taxed. A 12 oz. can of regular soda has about 40 grams of sugar, or about 3.33 grams/ounce. Just about every flavored version of Chobani Greek Yogurt has about 15 grams of sugar in it per 5.3 ounce cup, or about 2.83 grams of sugar per ounce. So 3.33 grams/oz gets taxed but 2.83 does not? My diet green tea is taxed at a penny per ounce, but Chobani Greek Yogurt isn't taxed? Really??

Marquette with a pretty impressive win over Vandy. Shot 53% from the floor and 42% from 3, even with Reinhardt and Rowsey combining to go 1-9 from 3. Jajuan Johnson with 21 points, 6 steals, Hauser with 14 points and 4-7 from 3 - pretty good first college game. Prediction: Marquette will be top-10 in the nation in steals.

False - Rizzo was #75 pre-2012 on BP and BA but was unranked on MLB.com pre-2012 (the trade was made in January of 2012). (Funny how what #75 ranking comes into play.) Cashner was in the majors two years after he was drafted. I also believe he was off the prospect lists pre-2011 because he had >50 IP and 123 days of major league service time - and thus no longer qualified for rookie status in 2011 - but I could be wrong about that. I was also the first person on this message board who thought that Mike Fiers and Jacob Barnes were legitimate pitching prospects. I've been proven right on a few things over the years. I hope Brinson is the top-20 prospect that everyone on the planet except me thinks he is. However, if the Brewers shouldn't trade him because he is a 5-tool talent and the best CF prospect in the system... then why did the Rangers trade him?

Take away any team's top three corners, top three RBs, #1 TE and #1 pass rusher and they will struggle. I'm not sure it's on the WRs as it is the OC and the play routes. Don't see them running plays that are designed to clear out an area and have a WR cross through that area. I agree with the sentiment of too many back shoulder throws; seems like a lot of routes are to run to a certain area and depending on the pre-snap read a ball may or may not be coming your way. Rodgers has seemed kind of lazy in that he's not stepping into throws consistently. Having no running threat doesn't help. Jalen Hurd and his former teammate Alvin Kamara would make nice 2nd/3rd round picks, especially if Hurd is the 6'4" 240 that he's listed at.

There's no guarantee that EE will sign with Boston. The Yankees will be looking to retool quickly, the Angels will have money to spend, Ilitch still doesn't have a WS, the Braves will have a ton of money to spend, etc. A trade guarantees you get the player, free agency is blind bidding that often causes overpayment. Look at how much the Angels spent on Pujols, the Tigers spent on Upton and Fielder, etc. Someone could come over the top of Boston. A trade also allows a team to send some salary back, and in the case of the Dodgers, if it can get them under the luxury tax threshold that will have huge implications financially for the organization. That, to them, is probably worth giving up some prospects for.

I think you can take And That's statement and substitute Yadiel Rivera for Tyrone Taylor and it would be pretty much true. I'm hoping that Barrios being removed is a function of not being ready to pitch any time soon, as I'd keep him over Rivera 10 times out of 10. Same with Liriano. I don't think the Brewers will have any open spots on the 40-man. They are 9th in line in the Rule 5 order, and by that point I don't think there will be anyone left who will have more upside than anyone the Brewers are debating adding from their own system.

I like to provide context too: Yes, you do - you trade from positions of depth (OF) to shore up positions of need (3B). Brinson isn't the only CF prospect they have in the system, and it's highly unlikely that they sign a FA 3B who is going to be anything special, therefore they likely have to trade for a 3B. The extremely high BABIPs suggest he may be overrated, and if that's the case then an argument could be made that you sell high on him before he starts looking like Byron Buxton or Delmon Young, both of whom put up great numbers in A/AA at 19/20/21. The Cubs traded a top prospect at the most premium defensive position (SP) for a 1B - a position that is relatively easy to fill via other means - and I don't think they've regretted it one bit.

Which Anderson are you referring to? Because Chase Anderson put up a 3.02 ERA and 2.65 K/BB in the 2nd half of last season. That's a bit better than "mediocre".

Of course he has 30/30 potential. The question is, what is the probability of reaching that potential, and what do his other numbers besides home runs and stolen bases project to be? I remember 2.5 years ago when everyone was really excited when the Brewers drafted and signed Monte Harrison. He has 30/30 potential. What are the odds of him reaching that potential? Pretty low. I never said Brinson is not a great prospect. I just happen to think that he's more of a top-75-ish prospect than a top 25-ish, and here is why. Brinson has never put up great numbers anywhere that weren't: 1) a small sample B) in a hitter-friendly league (Cal, PCL) 2014 - .985 OPS over 43 games/186 PAs in low-A - small sample (.413 BABIP) 2015 - 1.044 OPS over 64 games/298 PAs in High A at High Desert - hitter friendly league/ballpark (.402 BABIP) 2016 - 1.005 OPS over 23 games/93 PAs in AAA at Colorado Springs - hitter friendly league/ballpark and a small sample (.455 BABIP) Look at his BABIP in those leagues/seasons - that simply is not sustainable. (For reference, Tony Gwynn's career BABIP in the majors was .341.) Add in the low walk rate... and there is significant evidence to believe that he is not a top-25 prospect and that his composite AA numbers with the Rangers (.251/.293/.461, .754 OPS) might be closer to reality than what he did at AAA for the Brewers this year.

I was downtown this morning and at least 90% of the people I saw in Cubs gear fit this description (when you said "cute in a shirsey" you left out "and black leggings"). Yeah, like they know what this championship drought was about. Hey, if the Brewers win a World Series in the next 70 years it will be a shorter streak than the Cubs. And for almost half of those 108 years, there were only 8 teams in the NL and 16 in MLB. Think about that.

Why did Gomes not have the take sign on 2-0? Chapman was gassed, you make him throw a strike. Neither slider was a strike, could have had two on and the inning still going.

Take a good read through the top 25 prospects fan poll threads in the Minor League forum - that will give you a really good idea who the young players are who are expected to be stars. Another place to look is mlb.com's Top 30 team prospects page: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=mil Also, the Rule 5/40-man roster threads will give you a good idea of perceptions of Brewers players. Not sure if the Transaction Rumors/Proposals forum will be a good place to start off in - there are some good things in there, and some pretty wild things in there. If there are specific players you are interested in, use the Search function on this forum and search on their name - you can read all of the posts that their name was brought up in. Welcome aboad! Always glad to have anyone from Chicago defect to the Brewers.

Woodruff was 1.2 years younger than the average AA player this past season. Age is not a reason to knock him down. And who cares how many years you get from a guy and when he becomes a FA? A great pitcher is a great pitcher. I think if you read your description, what you are looking for/expecting is a guy who is the #1 or #2 pitching prospect in baseball. How many pitching prospects fit that definition? Yes, there are guys who throw 98, but most of them walk a lot of guys - they don't have a 4.13 K/BB ratio. Lopez never had scouting reports that said he was throwing 98 late into games, and he had a lower K rate than Woodruff (9.8 vs 8.6) and worse K/BB ratio (4.13 vs 2.65) at Biloxi last year. His 2015 was not at the level that Woodruff's 2016 was. Peralta isn't comparable either - he had a lower K rate (8.1) and lower K/BB ratio (2.08) at AA. Jose De Leon didn't spend much time in AA, but in that small-ish sample he had a better K rate (12.3) but a higher BB rate and lower K/BB ratio (3.62). He also gave up 1.3 HR/9 where Woodruff was 0.3. Woodruff was six months older this year at AA than De Leon was at AA last year, but that hasn't stopped De Leon from being a top prospect.

He was drafted in 2012 at 18, and this is the 5th Rule 5 draft after he signed so he is eligible. If they are 19 or older on the June 5 preceeding their signing they are eligible on the fourth Rule 5 after signing; if they are 18 or younger on the June 5 preceeding their signing they are eligible on the fifth Rule 5 after signing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft Having one of the top minor league systems means that there is a good chance you will lose talent for nothing over the offseason. The Brewers gambled with Liriano trying to sneak him through but lost; they won (so far) with Nolin. You have to think that Capuano and Boyer are likely to be released, and there are a lot of other guys on the fence (Rowen, Scahill, Goforth, Rivera, Pinto, Nieuwenhuis, Reed, Barrios, Houser).

It's more about pitches than innings. He threw only seven pitches in the first inning of tonight's game. His pitch count tonight for two innings was something like 25 pitches. Easy to do that in one inning and then come back the next night.

Not picking on you specifically, as there are plenty of others who have expressed a similar sentiment. Over the last 1.5 seasons there have been multiple scouting reports of Brandon Woodruff hitting 98 late in games, and he led all of MILB in strikeouts this past season. It took him a few games to adjust to AA - and the death of his brother probably didn't help - but over the last three months of the season his OPS-A was .373 in July over five starts (yes, that is OPS, not OBP or SLG), .563 in August (6 starts), and .333 in his one start in September. His OPS-A on the season was .552 (with a .285 BABIP, so minimal if any good luck at all) and his WHIP on the season was 1.019 with a 4.33 K/BB ratio. Yes, he was an 11th round pick, but deGrom was a 9th round pick and De Leon was a 24th round pick, both out of college. Given the velocity, the strikeouts, the K/BB ratio, the OPS-A, the WHIP, the low-luck-suggesting BABIP... what more do you need to see to think that no one in the Brewers minor league system has TOR potential? Nevermind Hader, whose cumulative numbers at AA (181 IP, 141 H, 70 BB, 216 K, 2.73 ERA, .291 BABIP for 2016 suggesting minimal if any luck) and cumulative for 2016 (.652 OPS-A on the entire season with a .330 BABIP, suggesting some bad luck, and 11.5 K/9) were pretty darned impressive too. Hader's K rate in 2016 (11.5) was almost exactly the same as Jose De Leon's (11.6). De Leon walked fewer (2.6 vs. 3.9) but had a higher HR rate (0.9 vs 0.4), and that showed in his very small sample of major league innings this season. I'm not convinced that De Leon is that much better of a prospect than Hader. TOR doesn't mean the #1 pitching prospect in all of baseball. In the majors, TOR means one of the top 20 or so SPs in the majors. TOR prospect means one of the top 20 or so pitching prospects in the game, and I think the Brewers have at least one, possibly two. I don't think there are more than 20 better pitching prospects than Woodruff or Hader. There are some, but not 20.

As someone who recently lived in downtown STL (yes, downtown - Washington and Tucker, next to the Washington entertainment corridor), I wouldn't get too excited about this. As RWA mentioned, if there isn't a game (Cardinals or Blues) going on, downtown is fairly deserted. The convention center will bring some activity during the week, but when people go out they go to Soulard (the brewery)/LaFayette Park, Clayton/Forest Park, etc. I lived in one of the nicer condo buildings in downtown and you can get 1200 sq. ft. in that building for $150K. You can find 1500-1600 sq. ft. warehouse lofts with upscale finishings for $200K and 3-4000 sq. ft. for $400K. There just isn't demand for housing in downtown STL. I don't think this is going to change it. Ballpark Village is nice, but nicer restaurants in downtown STL were closing left and right when I was there. Mike Shannon's - closed. Joe Buck's - closed. Ballpark Village draws people in because they have free parking until 9pm and will host smaller concerts, but people drive in - and then drive away at night (typically the Metro-East - i.e. Illinois suburbs - crowd). I don't know what they expect to get for "luxury housing", but if they think they can get a lot more than $200/sq. ft. they might be in for an unpleasant surprise. Particularly if they have 29 floors of residences to sell. There is a possibility that this could be a financial loss for them.

The biggest issue I've had is TT's refusal to part with late round picks (6th-7th) to shore up positions of need during the season. Over the last few years some big names have been traded for 6th/7th round picks (Vernon Davis, Jared Allen, etc.), and the Packers have usually had the cap space to add players with bigger contracts. Yes, every once in a while you might get a Corey Williams or a Mason Crosby or a James Starks, but for every one of those guys you get five Rickey Elmore's, Brennan Curtin's, Craig Bragg's, Kennard Backman's, and Caleb Schlauderaff's.

2 of the top 3, 5 of the top 10, and 14 of the top 25 are pitchers. Considering where the organization was just a few years ago, and considering that some feel this is the top organization in MLB in terms of prospects, that's a pretty good change.

But not just any fan. Game 7, bottom of the 9th, 2 out. Fly ball towards the LF stands. Zobrist over to catch it, reaches up, fan reaches out and knocks it away. Zobrist and the Cubs furious. Game goes on. Grounder to Russell at SS... and he boots it. Cubs don't get another out. So who is this mystery fan who - questionably - interferes with a ball right at the edge of the stands? Turns out his name is... ... honest to God... ... Taint McFadden. Who goes on to become a legend in the city of Cleveland, but disappears shortly after and is never heard from again. (Homer just bought plane tickets to Cleveland for game 7.)

Better yet, runner on 3B forgets to touch home plate. Indians appeal, runner called out. What about the bat breaks and is found to be corked? The ball would be fair in this instance meaning its a Grand Slam win celebration ongoing, only to have tv camera pan over to ump looking at bat and signal the batter out. Or Terry Francona notices something about the bat...