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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. I would let Hardy walk and hope we get the good draft pick personally. That same hope didn't work out real well with Sabathia and Sheets. If the Yankees have another offseason like this year it could be a 2nd round pick... or a 3rd round pick... I'm still not sold that Escobar can hit at the big league level. If he repeats his 2008 numbers this year in AAA then I will become a believer.
  2. Costco is to Sam's Club what Target is to Wal-Mart.
  3. I've been saying that for quite some time as well. Unfortunately it doesn't sound like JJ is that open to it. He's hitting his peak in value, but I love his attitude and he is a team leader (see: Prince Fielder vs. Manny Parra). So I'm torn between maximum trade value and internal value to the team. I don't think it is all that difficult to envision trading Escobar. There are plenty of teams out there that are looking to dump salary and/or are lower payroll teams than the Brewers, and if they have some talent approaching arbitration/free agency that fits the Brewers needs I could easily see them dealing Escobar. Go back to last year - would you have dealt Escobar for Sabathia (or as part of the package)? I would in a hearbeat, and I'd swap Brantley for Escobar in that deal.
  4. As Russ's mini-study apparently supports, the effects will cancel each other out. If you're a .600 team, you are going to win 60% of your games if your odds of winning are 0%/0%/100%/100%/100% or 60%/60%/60%/60%/60% over each set of 5 games. Right, but the theory is not reality in baseball. In the history of baseball, almost every single team won at least 1/3rd of their games and almost every team lost at least 1/3rd of their games. So what matchups do is try to tilt the remaining 1/3rd in your favor. So every team has no worse chance than 33% to win any game and no better chance than 67% to win any game. So the most you can change the odds are 16.67% each way. So by putting Suppan out there as the #1, say they reduce the odds of winning to 35% for that game. But it increases the odds to 60% in the remaining games by the matchups. So you lose a net of 3% (15% divided by 5 for weighting) but gain a net of 8% (10% divided by 5 multiplied by four), and you increase your net odds by 5%. That results in 8 more wins in a season.
  5. If this theory holds true in reality, I'm all for it. In baseball you only need to win three out of every five and you're looking at 97 wins. If "giving" away one game creates more favorable matchups in the next 3 or 4 games then I see little fault in it. I also think that they will still need to watch Gallardo's and Parra's IP this year, so moving them down a little may give them a chance to pace them a little more if needed. Also, Suppan isn't falling off a cliff like people think; in August last year he was 5-0 with an ERA of 3.00; September was a disaster but I think he was hurt more than he led on to, and they needed innings so he sacrificed himself to give what he could.
  6. Because we have Gamel as out starting third baseman in Nashville. Which means that McGehee would have to play regularly at some other position, which wouldn't prepare him to replace Hall if need be. True, but McGehee would sit on the bench in Milwaukee also, so that wouldn't prepare him to replace Hall if need be. And both McGehee and Hall are RH hitters, so it wouldn't make much sense to spell Hall with McGehee when they face tough righties. So it's a no-win situation with McGehee - wherever they put him he won't play. They can't even stick him at AA because Taylor Green will be there. On the other hand, it's kind of nice when your 3B depth from the majors to AA is Bill Hall, Mat Gamel, and Taylor Green, and a guy like McGehee is only being considered for bench duty anywhere. That's progress. Hopefully Hall reverts back to 2006 form, which would make all of this moot.
  7. I've walked in Costco dozens of times and never have been asked if I have a membership or not. They want you to come in and look around at the selection to entice you to join. You can't buy anything, but you are free to walk around. You don't even have to be a member to use the pharmacy. If you have any meds that are not covered by insurance and pay cash for they often will have a better cash price than many pharmacies. Some other things they have cheap (but in bulk/large sizes) are HABA (health and beauty aids) things like vitamins/supplements, pain relievers (aspirin/ibuprofin/etc.), anything OTC, both name brands and the store brand. They occasionally have name-brand clothes for good prices. People that I know who have memberships have had good things to say about food. If you have freezer space to freeze meat/fish that can be a good bargain. Personally I don't have a membership because as a single person who travels a lot I just don't use that much stuff. But for a family, or if you have friends/family members that want to go in together and split things that come in bulk it can be a good deal. I would recommend looking at anything you buy on a regular basis (or things you occasionally use that have a long shelf life like ibuprofin, shaving cream, batteries, etc.), jot down the prices at the nearest grocery store or Target, and then walk into Costco and compare prices. But if you don't have a Costco nearby, also factor in how much it will cost you in gas, wear/tear on your car, the value of your time, etc., to see if it is really worth it.
  8. DiFelice had also been impressive before Sunday, allowing one run and just two hits in eight innings over three appearances. He also pitched four scoreless innings for Italy against a potent Venezuelan lineup in the World Baseball Classic. People forget that in 15 appearances last year encompassing 19 innings, he gave up 17 hits, 4 walks (1.11 WHIP), struck out 20 and had an ERA of 2.84. A small sample, yes, but pedestrian journeyman numbers, no. Take out his ML debut in Boston, a tough place to make your major league debut much less against a very potent LH lineup, and his numbers were even more impressive. Outside of that game he gave up three solo HRs, and that's it. If DiFelice learns not to throw low inside strikes to LH power hitters (like Ortiz) he will be a very good pitcher.
  9. Billy Spiers and Darryl Hamilton (though Hamilton moreso) were decent hitters but not power hitters. Spiers OBP (not OPS) in his five years as a starter, not including 1992 when he was injured: .298, .274, .337, .302. .316. That is no where close to decent. Hamilton could hit for average but that was about it; never walked more than 47 times in a season. I will grant you "decent" status for him, as his OBP during his tenure was .333, .361, .356, .367, and .350 (not including 1994 when he was hurt). But those are not impressive OBP numbers for the batting average he had, or lack of power.
  10. Chris Saenz got hurt after his callup and was never the same again. Thus why you never heard from him again. I think no one prior to 1993 is eligible because the Brewers placed zero value in prospects. Joey Meyer (and Robidoux) wasn't even given a full season of plate appearances before they gave up on him (and his OPS+ his rookie season was 103), and they were jettisoned for the likes of Greg Brock and Franklin Stubbs. LaVel Freeman was given three whole ABs. Steve Stanicek was a first round pick, #11 overall, and he was given seven whole ABs. But Bill Spiers, he of only one season with an OPS+ above 79, got almost 2000 career ABs with Milwaukee; yes he was good defensively, but he was one of the worst offensive shortstops to every play for Milwaukee. He would absolutely be run out of town today with those numbers. Daryl Hamilton was nothing special either; in only half of his seasons his OPS was above league average.
  11. Has the scenario been presented such that I think the organization will be better in the long run by accepting the short term cut? I'm not taking a voluntary cut just to save jobs if those jobs don't really add value to the future organization, regardless if my friend is in one, or someone else supporting a family. This exact scenario is the one that has plagued many unions, particularly the auto workers unions. It wasn't that long ago in the early 80's when AMC came to the union in Kenosha and said they needed to build a new plant but in order to absorb the cost they would need wage concessions. The union said no, so AMC pulled out of Kenosha and the whole area took a huge economic hit. Now AMC was going under anyway, but had they taken the pay cut and built the plant there would have been a new plant that Chrysler would have taken over and with all of the hugely successful cars Chrysler came out with in the mid-80s to today it could have made for an economic boom in that area. Instead a lot of people lost their jobs, which caused other people to lose their jobs/businesses. Hammer makes a great point. We just went through an expansion and realignment and have 47 positions open nationwide (in a sales force of ~320). I was in Chicago this week to help run interviews and we had the best panel of candidates I've ever seen, and had several people that I would hire in a heartbeat actually not be our first choice because there were better candidates. We screened 5000 resumes to come down to 150 to interview for 47 positions. So my answer is "yes", I would take a 5% pay cut under any scenario. Because there's no guarantee that declining it means eliminating just someone else's job.
  12. RP - VDLS or Angel Miranda
  13. Catcher - Jason Belcher or Kade Johnson Or Lou Palmisano?
  14. Not sure if "we" means a couple or a family. If "we" means a couple, then I would recommend one night in the Gaslamp district. There is a lounge at the top of the Marriott Gaslamp that has a panoramic view of the city; great place to catch a drink before or after dinner while the sun sets, can be a nice romantic spot (if you're not next to someone who is smoking). It looks right over Petco so it gets busy on gameday. (Best value for parking is the ramp that is right across the street from that Marriott). For dinner I would recommend the Gaslamp Strip Club - it is a "grill-your-own" steakhouse but with a burlesque theme to it. No one under 21 allowed (nothing too racy - some artistic nude paintings high up on the wall but not obscene), so you don't have to put up with any families with kids. If "we" means family with kids, then forget what I just said. As for going up the coast, Pacific Beach is a smaller town along the coast with lots of shops/restaurants/beach to walk on.
  15. It seems like Marquette and Wisconsin generally get lower than what fans expect/think they deserve. They should get a six but I'm expecting a 7 or 8. Yep, happens every year. I expect nothing higher than a 7 for Marquette, probably an 8 seed with a matchup against UNC in the second round. Look for a 9 seed for Wiscy with a matchup against Pitt in the 2nd round (if they beat the #8 seed they are matched against, Maryland).
  16. Joel, remind me on Friday. I've been out of town a lot the last few weeks and will be until Thursday night. I'll be home on Friday and can do it then.
  17. Did it eight years ago... yep, best $2700 ever spent. Still 20/20 if not better. Make sure to follow the post-op instructions to the letter, and wear the eye shields for at least two weeks at night if not a month. Seriously, the people who have things go wrong are the people who don't follow the post-op procedures.
  18. Hammer - the way you answer that is with this response: "If I can prove to you that everything on my resume is 100% accurate, will you hire me?" Trial closing always flushes out whether or not that is the real issue or if they are just blowing smoke up your dress to see how you respond.
  19. While I would agree that HR has more than its share of people with personality issues, generally when it comes to resumes, screening, and setting up interviews, that is usually handled by recruiters. I don't know about other industries or companies, but generally in my industry during the hiring process HR usually just does or signs off on the background check, drug screen, etc., and the recruiters are the ones who are screening resumes and putting candidates forward for us to interview. I would also recommend seeking out private recruiters - they get paid if they refer someone who gets hired, so they have a vested interest in finding you a job.
  20. I put all of the spices on the bird, but that might not be a bad idea to put the leftover spices in the bowl in the beer. Do me a favor and take a picture of how you prop up the turkey so I can see exactly what you mean with the forks and the skillet.
  21. I disconnected the fans, monitor, and second hard drive one by one, and it is not any of those. I opened up the case and it sounds like it is coming from somewhere on the motherboard. Not sure how to check the primary hard drive while being able to run the computer; I'm not sure if the installation disk is a boot disk or not, but I'll try. It definitely is related to the issue I have with going to the Paypal website in Firefox - it starts whistling when I go to the page and is waiting for it to respond and stops when the script error message comes up. Valpo - if it is a capacitor on the motherboard, is that something that is easy/cheap to fix or would I have to replace the entire motherboard?
  22. Thanks for the tips, but I did start Firefox in safe mode and had the same problem and same error message. I have a sneaky feeling it is related to the whistling problem I have. For reference, this is the exact error: A script on this page may be busy, or it may have stopped responding. You can stop the script now, or you can continue to see if the script will complete. Script: https://www.paypalobjects...t/pp_jscode_080706.js:193
  23. I have the Packers taking this guy in the 5th round in my Mock draft!
  24. He has the five tools, but personally I need to see more than the month and a half he has spent at AA/AAA before banking on him for any role in the future. I'm certainly rooting for him, but I don't count on anyone until they have had at least a full season at AA or above to prove they are worthy of true prospect status.
  25. I tried cleaning out the fans and no improvement. It doesn't whistle much when it is idling, but it whistles a lot when I am on the internet and going to a new page. See Firefox/Paypal thread - I have a feeling these things are interrelated. Anyone have any ideas?
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