MJLiverock
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Everything posted by MJLiverock
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I just saw that Kendry Morales will need season ending surgery to repair scar tissue in his ankle. The bone is healed but that injury has cost him 2 years now. I wonder if this increases the Angels interest in a certain free agent first baseman/DH rather than count on a guy who has missed 2 full years to be the everyday first baseman next year.
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Greeg35 I'm not sure what you are asking. The difference between a .294 OBP and a .335 this year for Gomez is 5 outs. The point is that the Brewer's offense wouldn't be dramatically better had Gomez not made a whopping 5 outs. Look around the lineup no one is hitting, putting Hart in the two spot? He's been terrible in his short return. Morgan can't stay on the field. LuCroy? He started hot and his coming back down, don't forget despite all the random comments of him being a top hitter he put up a Gomezesque .300 OBP last year with very little power. Betancourt? you know the firestorm that would set off. Counsell in place of Betancourt? I wouldnt' bet that Counsell could outhit Betancourt at this point going forward he may well be done at a major leaguer, especially if asked to play more than 1x or 2x a week.
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His offensive problems would be masked if he wasn't making so many outs between Weeks and Filder/Braun.The difference between Gomez's .294 OBP and a .335 OBP which would put him behind only Weeks, Fielder and Braun for the season long OBP rankings is 5 outs.
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I think you are thinking too much about frustrating players that always seemed to come up big against the Brewers and prescribing a lot more ability to them than they really have. Guys like Miles, Theriot, Schumaker, Ryan, Fontenot really weren't very good, and were best used as role players or utility infielders who mostly played below average defense which would only add to the complaints about defense. The other thing that stands out is these guys and their scrappy ilk are often 2nd baseman or poor shorstops. The Brewers already had a 2nd baseman who is better than any scrappy, bloop hitting guy you could want to get. It wouldn't matter if the Brewer's developed some "scrappy, gritty, battler" because they aren't going to play 2nd base in Milwaukee which seems to be the place where all these types end up. Or you can go back to some guy like Brady Clark in CF who played awful defense with his heels on warning track and managed a year or two of good hitting. The best option to fit that scrappy (i.e. minimal power, bloop or seeing eye single hitter) mold right now is probably LuCroy.
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I don't know where you live JoeHova, but in the Madison area Steve's Liquor stores had some very good German Rieslings last time I bought some. Riesling is my wife's favorite white. I just picked a bottle and when I checked out the clerk told me it was the best Riesling they had, I know it was under $20 but I can't remember the name, I have to check and see if we have any left.
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When Does Our Hitting Cause a Change?
MJLiverock replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The team had a .199 BABIP during the previous 7 days prior to las night's game, that is unsustainably low. Just getting that to a normal level would have probably won a game or two in this stretch and eased a lot of concerns. I dont' think the team is going to go out and start making big changes based on one bad road trip early in the season. And frankly I don't see what big changes that could make a difference there are even available at this point in the year. The most obvious was playing Morgan more but he is hurt again. I am not sold on LuCroy in the 2 spot simply because he a ground ball machine without a lot of power thus far. His major league walk rate is nothing special, he managed a .300 Gomezesque OBP last year, he's had a hot start for 60 or so plate appearances but I'd like to see him keep it up before I annoint him the next Joe Mauer. -
When Does Our Hitting Cause a Change?
MJLiverock replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I really like rluzinski's chart there, maybe even move Hart down a little more but it shows how reliant the team is on Braun/Fielder. An interesting study that falls into the naked eyes test but not have a real idea if it is true or not is the correlation of Brewer hitters to one another. It seems that the team is either all hot or all cold at once rather than 2 or 3 hot guys 2 or 3 performing to normal, and 2- 3 slumping. Like right now, is there anyone on the team hot? Answering my own question for anyone hot? Nope, over the last week Kotsay has the best batting average at .286 in 8 PA's, Weeks has the best average has a regular at .273. Everyone else is at .227 or lower - - pretty miserable week. Even stretching it out the last 2 weeks show Weeks at .359, Kotsay .348, Betancourt .317, Braun .292 with a bunch below .250, not a surprise given the lack of runs but showing no one is really hitting. The Cardinals for instance have Berkman at .463, Holiday at .392, Freese was at .394 before getting hurt, those are some hot guys. The Brewers are dead last NL in the last 7 days in BABIP at .199 (2nd to last is at .243) compared to the Braves on top at .329. -
Using last night is the epitome of small sample, of course picking a game where errors or bad plays occur shows how important defense can be. If I posted after a game where the team made the same mistakes and had won and used that as an example of how defense doesn't matter I am sure there would be an uproar. The Brewer defense isn't good but last night's game wasn't the norm. The Cardinals made two errors last night and lost the game does that mean they are terrible all the time as well? There isn't much that can be done about the D because as has been mentioned, Fielder being one of the weakest and making others even worse, happens to be one of the two best hitters on the team so he can't be benched or easily replaced. Betancourt isn't good but there aren't any viable replacements out there, maybe some guys who would be marginally at best better but also much worse at the plate. McGehee -- the Brewer's have been looking for a 3rd baseman since the days prior to Braun. Weeks is O.K., he has his moments of gaffs but every player does, range usually isn't his problem, and if Fielder could catch or stretch it would make Weeks a lot better. The one area of D that I think gets over rated the most is corner outfield. Given the limited number of chances that are even questionable out there, there is way too much emphasis on their impact in stats like WAR. I don't worry too much about Braun or Hart out there having any more impact negatively on the team than an average corner guy.
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I've got some Cabernet's (maybe 6-7 left) that are probably in the neighborhood of $100 each retail, to $150+ in a restaurant based on when I've seen them listed and I can tell they are very good in comparison to a $10 bottle. I probably crack one a year at the holiday's and have to admit they are smooth almost velvety with none of the tannin or bitter taste in comparison to regular old cheap bottles that are also open and normally drank. These are early 1990's Private Reserve wines from a California Winery that a buddy out there got me a great deal on about 8 years ago. I always laugh that if I could afford it I would drink the good Cab's over the cheap ones all the time. It isn't that the cheap ones are bad it is that some of the expensive ones are so good.
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Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder: Double Standard?
MJLiverock replied to TexasAggieBrewer's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think people turned off by Braun being cocky are just looking for something to nit pick about. I personally don't find him overly cocky at all, at least not in comparison to other superstars. I think a lot of that comes from a generation of fans who think anyone who doesn't look at the ground and say aww shucks a lot is too cocky. Then again I have a much higher tolerance and even enjoy players who show emotion and seem to be having a fun time playing a game, I hate it when people whine about a player not looking ashamed he hit a home run or daring to pump his fist after a big hit. I'm not disagreeing that Fielder could be even more popular but I think it would be more to do with 1. He is a HR hitter and people love the long ball 2. He is a large man and WI loves their large athletes - - think Gilbert Brown (decent player for a short while but people loved him) Ron Dayne - - people loved to talk about how big he was, B.J.Raji-- the dance in Chicago has made him very popular. -
Who do you think will get a bigger suspension or fine - - McDowell for non PC words or Lowe for recklessly driving while drunk?
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The problem is that having the 19th best or 17th best or 21st best player at a position isn't any sort of meaningful upgrade, especially when those guys in any given year can end being ranked in any one of those postions. Sure I'd like to improve the SS position but not a the expense of giving something up to bring a player who's range of production puts him right at YB's level of production over any one given year. That is why I don't wring my hands over not getting Punto, Izturis type players to play the spot. Replacing bad with bad doesn't gain anything and when the margin of improvement is likely 5% or less over YB I just fail to see how making a change just to make a change is any sort of improvement. I dont' even see that platooning Counsell at this point will be help, he looks like he may well be done as a hitter and I'd have serious doubts that he could hold up over the course of a full season playing the big half of a platoon. The real question may be that counting on Counsell for one more year as the super sub in the infield may be one year too many and you know no matter how he does this year he isn't going to be replaced until he retires at year end.
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Ravenswood Vinters Blend is a decent $10 or less bottle of wine, especially the California / Red Zin and the Cab. My wife likes the Rosemount Estate Shiraz as another $10 or so bottle of Red. I'm not a huge fan of whites, but Sauvignon Blanc is probably my best bet for finding a cheaper bottle, a lot of the Chardonnay are either way to sweet or way to acidic for my tastes. I think it is either the Australian or New Zealand's Marlboro coast that is an up and coming producer of Sauvignon Blancs that are decent on the cheaper end. I tend to stay away from the local Wisconsin wines as they are way too sweet for my taste. There a couple of southern WI wines I have had and consider them quite possibly the worst wine I have ever tasted.
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Mobile Phone Internet Connectivity at Miller Park
MJLiverock replied to jjkoestler's topic in Off-Topic Forum
I was at the game on Tuesday and my iPhone on Verizon didn't seem to have any troubles, but my friend who was calling and trying to meet up with me couldn't get a call out on his iPhone on AT&T. We laughed about it because he always has trouble at Badger football games and I have never had an issue on Verizon while there, even during the Ohio State game last year. I was taking pics and sending them out no problem after the game and he couldn't send anything. We've noticed it at his cabin up near WI Rapids, the iPhones on AT&T can't get a signal but Verizon & US Cellular (which share a network in much of WI) were fine as were non iPhone AT&T phones. -
Betancourt isn't good and neither were the alternatives, Punto, and all the other marginal players aren't any better. That is the point of strawboss and many other posters, including myself. Citing a stat like WAR and trying to say a guy is .1 or .6 or whatever better is assigning way to much certainty and accuracy to that stat than is possible. Given that list of alternatives like Punto, Cabrera, Renteria, Cruz, I'd wager one will be better than YB, one will be worse, and one will be about the same by the end of the year. Which one will be better? No idea because they are all bad and the differences will likely be marginal. Punto would have been a terrible choice to pencil in as the starting SS given his lack of history there, age, and hitting. If he was the back up infielder utility guy, fine, but that would have meant no Counsell (which may not have been a bad thing given how bad he looks at the plate and may have hit the wall for his age). The team wasn't going to keep two weak hitting back up utility infielders around. If Punto and Counsell were on the team, that still wouldn't have convinced Cruz to stay. And as mentioned, any of these scenarios are a wash to having YB who is bad, just like the rest of that bunch.
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I've never understood the booing of former players unless the guy was a jerk or he took the same or less money to play elsewhere just to get out of Milwaukee. Lee played well, and got offered stupid money after he was traded, nothing I could get to upset about. Are people going to boo Overbay because he got traded to make room for Prince? You know Prince will get booed if he signs some 7 year $200MM deal elsewhere, but I can't fault him if the Brewers "only" offered up something like 5 years $100MM. The guy played hard, did well, and never said a bad thing about Milwaukee. There is probably somebody out there who will boo Capuano if he pitches in Miller Park for the Mets.
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Bernie, I always think of those guys along with Gross whenever I see the dire predicitions and lamenting of loss for such great talents when they get cut or traded. I can't think of any pitchers off the top of my head that fall into that camp though. I know there was that pick up from Philly a couple years ago that had the real slow curveball that had done well in low minors and independant league but nothing at the ML level that some hopes were pinned on and a few posts about why let him go but other than that I can't remember a pitcher getting the man crush beyond his abilities like those guys. Maybe DeFelice?
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I don't know that the Brewers have had a catcher in recent years I would trust to make a snap throw from the knees behind the batter to first, especially with Fielder being on the receiving end. I don't think the risk of shortening the lead compared to the number of balls that end up in RF would be worth it with the Brewers catchers over the last 5 years.
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Gross was always vastly overrated by some on this board. He couldn't hit LH pitching at all and his split even vs. RH pitching weren't astounding. He was just a worse version of Kevin Mench.
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I think sbrylski06's table sums up my thoughts very well. A 5% inflation discount factor for a supestar level player is not far fetched. Even in 2010 when baseball was supposedly going to be tight with money because of the economic recession and fears, the total baseball salaries went up 2.35%. As the wage recession ends and inflation in the regular economy picks up a bit the 5% factor for top players is probably fair. http://bizofbaseball.com/...=26:editorials&Itemid=39 7 or 8 years ago when guys like Vlad Guerrero signed a $10 Million per year deal it seemed like a ton of money. Today there are over 50 players making over $10 Million per year, with something like 25 or so making over $17 Million per year. Guys like Randy Wolf are getting paid over $10MM per, Adam Dunn a guy who can't field is 32 gets $14MM. Braun making an inflation adjusted $13MM per for his age 32-36 seasons doesn't seem excessive at all. He probably won't even be in the top 50-75 highest paid players in the game at that point, because even today a guy making $19MM per barely cracks the top 20.
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With wage inflation and performance, Braun could have been looking at $30Million a year for some of those years. $21MM a year in 5-8 years might be more like $15MM a year in today's terms. I am sure the Cardinals would have like to extended Pujols a few years back at something like $25MM which people would have said was crazy but now that the time has rolled around wouldn't think twice about paying him $25MM a year for the next 3 or 4 years.
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I think it sends the message to Fielder that he welcome to leave because the team is being built around Braun. The money saved from Fielder will be spent elsewhere, like pitching.
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I've noticed more than a few gripes when YB swings at the first pitch but he actually hits better when he does. He has a .308 avg. if he puts that first pitch in play, much better than his career numbers. The guy is never going to foul off a ton a pitches and draw a walk so he may as well swing at that first one if he likes it. I have never really been bothered by guys swinging at the first pitch, as long as it is a strike. Letting the pitcher get ahead 0-1 on a grooved fastball just to take a pitch seems silly. Hardy used to drive me crazy watching a fastball down the middle of the plate to fall behind 0-1, especially knowing he was a fastball hitter. It looks like YB is better served swinging at the first pitch. Not picking Hardy because he plays the same position as YB but because he always stood out to me as letting good pitches go by just to take a pitch.
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I have a friend from Iowa who is a Brewer/Bear fan. He lived in Milwaukee for a while, but hated the Cubs because so many of his friends back home were Cub fans who annoyed him. He is a hard core sports guy (I believe he has every Iowa football game on VHS and DVD from the last 15 years.) and can't stand the so called fans who can't name players on the team or have no clue about their abilites so he found himself rooting against the Cubs growing up. Of course his wife is a huge Packer/Cub fan, she is also a sports nut and her dad has Packer season tickets and drives from Iowa to GB for every home game. To top it off while she was in grad school at Marquette she worked for the Brewers front office and her sister worked for ESPN then the Big 10 Network. It is always fun to have sports discussions with them because I side with him on baseball, her on NFL and neither on college football as both are Iowa fans.
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As nullbyte said, the show was picked up for a second season by HBO. http://latimesblogs.latim...for-a-second-season.html