MJLiverock

I think you and I are on the same point TheCrew07. Free agency is tough to build from and tough to just replace a guy with 3 others because of the various reasons I listed. Monty and some others have hit on the point that it does help the team keep Weeks and afford a few of the arby years of the other guys. It just takes time to build from the farm system and only a rare player can step in and play at Fielder/Braun level from the get go. I am not trying to be arugmentative but I don't agree that it is simple to just replace a talent like Fielder with 3 other cheaper guys and not see a step backwards. I would rather get some prospects in the AA area and hope to see them develop quickly and use money to plug maybe one spot via free agency but have it be better than some run of the mill $5-$7MM guy. At some point clinging to mediocrity or treading water at 80 wins is counter productive. The wac a mole analogy is a good one, every year the team scrambles to fill some glaring hole with a stop gap measure in the short run. It does seem at times there is no long range plan, which (I don't mean to put words in your mouth) is a problem and a side affect of Melvin's seeming unwillingness to trade talent for talent. By this I mean you have to give to get and sure trading minor pieces here and there but trading a guy who is still useful and talented for a useful talented positon player or pitcher hasn't been the norm. He dumped the Lee contract and got a return on a future free agent but I mean a true young guy for young guy or something beyond the obvious. Teams like the Twins, Rays, Braves, Tigers, have all been willing to swap out players with talent for guys they thought were better or helped them more. Being completely risk averse is a poor strategy, you have to take some risk to have above average upside especailly with limited resources. Melvin gets paid to know more than fans and as an owner I would want him to know more than other GM's or be better at his job of evaluating talent than other GM's because that is his peer benchmark. It will be interesting to see how the catching situation plays out. If LuCroy becomes the guy will Melvin trade Salome if offered something of value or will he hang on until Salome's value declines as he sits in AAA. (I don't see both being on the ML roster together, they will want some gritty veteran to back up LuCroy). Salome, playing a premium position and showing ability to hit, may have value that could bring some other team's prospect, be it a low level pitcher, or infielder. Wow I went way off the course here, this probably makes more sense in the "Why do some want to fire Melvin" thread.

Expectations have sunk so low that a Suppan 1 IP, 1 run allowed is "not bad". I wonder if the over under on his ERA for cuttiing him is 9.00?

Weeks is already on the team so I wasn't counting him as a replacement for Prince's production. I understand what you are rluz and I agree to a point. I think it is a lot easier said than done. There is a good chance that money will be wasted as well since finding three quality guys in the free agent pool for team friendly deals is a tall order. If a guy like Prince doesn't live up to his $25MM deal and "only" really gives you $18MM of production, you still have a very good player that produces at a level above almost everyone on the team. A $7MM a year guy not living up to his production may well be pretty much worthless or at a level that could have been had by calling up a young guy and plugging him in so are you really better off wasting that $7MM? Or having 2 of the 3 guys suffer bad seasons or injuries? I just wanted to point out going the 2 or 3 slightly above average guys in place of Prince isn't without risks either. You have to find guys that fit by salary, position, and attainablilty and they have to produce as well. It isn't that easy to just wave the hand and pick up a .800 OPS player or above average pitcher in any given year even without factoring in where the player fits on the diamond given what the team already has.

I looked around just briefly at some of the guys who have moved around recently via FA or trade even that fall into that mid 3 WAR and $10MM a year area. For hitters you see guys like Ibanez getting a 3 year deal for $31MM, Granderson is getting paid $10MM next year and then a FA, Swisher gets $9.1MM in 2011 then FA, Damon signed a one year deal for $8MM, Berkman gets $14MM then FA. Those are basically the type of hitter that falls into that category. Guys that sign 3 year $30MM deals are on the northside of 30 or guys on short term deals that leave you open again in a year to finding that 3.0 WAR guy. Pitchers that fall in there are guys like Jason Marquis, who signed a 2 year $15MM deal in the offseason, Carl Pavano who got a 1 year $7MM deal or Edwin Jackson who was traded but will get $8.75MM next year and them hit FA. Ted Lilly gets paid $13MM this year and is a FA next year. John Lackey gets $18.7MM this year and $16MM per for the next 4 afterwards. Realisitically that is the type of deal the Brewers would be looking at if they went FA to try and replace Fielder with two of the mid 3 WAR players. Some combination of an old hitter on a one yer deal leaving you open to the risk of finding another guy the next year but limiting money tied up to just one year, signing an aging player to a 3 year deal around $10MM and then on the pitching side getting a younger guy about to hit FA or signing an againg or injury historied pitcher to a short term deal. I don't think anyone would be too excited about replacing Fielder with Raul Ibanez and Jason Marquis. The question is do you think the team would be better? I don't think the team would really be any better in that situation. A team likely ends up with two middle of the road guys who are either aging, or have durability questions, or coming off possible career years. It still doesn't remove the risk that at least half the money will be squandered on a guy who fails to perform, gets hurt, or is gone in a year leaving you open to replacement risk again. The risk weighting is probably how much of chance of failure do you put on Prince not living up to his deal 25%? 50%? verus how much of risk is signing 2 $10MM guys and having them or one of them being a failure? If you put 50% on Prince his expected outcome is around $12.5MM of value received. If you think one guy will pan out for sure and give him a 100% likliehood to succed and the other guy only a 50% chance of succeeding the expected value received is still only $15MM for these two $10MM players. Is it better value than Prince? Yes, but you have to assume Prince fails miserably to live up to his deal, if he is even 75% he makes up the difference. That is why elite players get the money, they receive a scarcity premium for their services since they only become available at rare opportunities and although they are not without question , the alternatives also tend to have big questions and limited upside.

Signing Lackey instead of Wolf really wouldn't have made that much difference in the future fo the Brewers and still would have left a need for more pitching, even with Wolf the team is still pretty bad in the rotation. It also means the Brewers probably would have had to pay more the Boston since I think given the choice for a similar contract a player will pick Boston over Milwaukee. What incentive is there for Washington to trade Dunn for two mid level prospects? His example is he is not that expensive for the production so why would Washington give that up? A team likes to have at least a couple players to keep the fans interested and if anything they would want pitching in return which the Brewers can't give up. I think it is pretty hard to just replace elite players or pick up a few guys and cobble together production of offset the loss of great players. That was a big part of my arguement that the Brewer pitching staff would be awful last year because it is very hard to replace the 300 elite innings the team got from Sabathia and Sheets. Replacing a 1.000 OPS hitter like Prince isn't going to be easy either. A team like the Phillies has the money to spend they may as well spend it, especially when this close to being on top of the game. I think that is a point that is missed in many of these is it worth it arguments. If they don't spend it are they going to piggybank it and spend it later? How much heat and lost near term revenue does the team take for just piggybanking money and letting star players walk? If they play in a couple more World Series in the next few years and then fall back to the middle or bottom of the pack in 5 years it would be worth it to me as fan rather than playing for a hypothetical wins per dollar spent trophy. I always think of the analogy of high end sports cars, you could buy a Ford Fusion and get somewhere, you could by a nice higher end Acura and have some extra bells and whistles or you could buy a Ferrari. It may be a pain to get fixed, may break down, be poor in the winter but if you have a few extra million laying around versus just a few thousand then why not? It sure is fun to drive and you were probably going to blow the money on something anyway and this one just happened to be available when you had the money to spend. Maybe in two or three years you will wish you blew it on a that Piccaso sketch instead but it wasn't for sale at the time. Luckily for you another boatload of money has been delivered to you and you can now become that art collector instead. And that old Rolls you had in the garage sold for a decent amount of cash as well freeing up more of your massive disposable income to blow. That to me is why the big market teams spend the ridiculous money they spend. They have it, they have to spend it on something, so they throw it at whatever the best on the market is available at the time knowing they will have money in the future as contracts roll off and revenues keep coming in.

I wouldn't trade Braun even up for Heyward. Braun isn't that much older and is a proven elite hitter and under a nice contract.

Yeah...that's the thing. You can sign a guy like Adam Dunn to play 1B, and even ace type starters can be had for $15 million a year (I think that's what Halladay is getting paid).I agree in principal to the idea but in reality those type of players have to be 1. available in the year you need to sign them. 2. willing to sign a short term deal 3. pitchers that get $15MM/year typically are trying to get 4 and 5 year deals 4. better hope some other big market team or more desirable team doesn't need the same player that year. Any of these things go against you and the gamble is lost and Joe Koshankyor Mike Jacobs, or someone of that ilk is playing first base. For instance if this had been the year Prince was gone who would have been available to sign to take his place? What pitchers would have been brought in besides Wolf that would have helped? We have also seen that just signing two $12MM/year people doesn't necessarily offset the loss of one $25MM/year player. The Brewers have $20MM sunk into Suppan and Hall and that production isn't worth anything. Guys that get paid $25MM/year get paid because they are really, really good, using two slightly above average guys to replace that talent isn't an easy task.

Willy Street or the proposed 1st and E. Washington are horrible location for anyone except near east siders to get to and still isn't really downtown. Getting to that area of town is a pain in the neck from the West side or southwest side, especially in the mornings or evenings. Proponents of these locations cite the need to take a cab from the airport to get to downtown or the UW but neither of these locations solve that question. Business commuters aren't going to walk a mile each way so they still will need a cab. Getting to these locations from Middleton and the far west side takes you right past the airport if you go around the north way to avoid the bottleneck of the beltline, John Nolen, University avenue logjams. Uggh, how I hated having to drive thru downtown or up John Nolen in the mornings for meetings on the east side of the square. Plus, this isn't a commuter train for Madison, it is a high speed rail from Chicago to Minneapolis with basically a whistle stop in Madison. Not everyone will need to go downtown or even get off the train here. I sometimes wonder if peopel realize how many Madisonians rarely actually go downtown to the isthmus, most of the large employers have moved to the perifphery of the city.

Hall and Hardy were run out on a rail? Wasn't everyone complaining about how many chances Bill Hall was given and how he just kept getting playing time before finally being forced out because of McGehee, Counsell, and Gamel being available and able to handle third. Hardy was nearing expensive territory and being pushed by the top prospect in the farm system, trading him made perfect sense. I'd hardly call either situation being run out on a rail and especially in Hall's case, multiple chances were given when it questioned why, sort of similar to Suppan. I don't want to see Suppan in the rotation or even in the bullpen but he was only given 2 starts this year (should have been none) but really not much more "favoratism" than other veteran the Brewers have strung along over the years, Kendall starting 130+ games, Counsell playing over Escobar late last year, Gamel barely playing, numerous younger middle relievers who had to wait for vets to flame out, Gagne's deal, Turnbow given multiple chances after his contract, etc. Melvin's press comments yesterday or Saturday also gave no hint he was pressured into keeping Suppan in the rotation, if anything he sounded like he was trying to justify his own mistake. You were right earlier about rumors and Melvin hinting at Attanasio forcing the Yost move but if anything that shows me he stepped in and made Melvin get rid of a guy who wasn't getting it done and that Melvin was dragging his feet on cutting ties or ending the multiple chances thing.

Kind of interesting you question evidence of Suppan's community involvement when he has been the Clemente nominee for community involvment from the Brewers for 3 straight years in the same post you are sure Suppan is Mark A.'s guy with really no evidence other than a dinner while also citing another aging vet Melvin tried to sign for too much money.

I completely agree, there has not been one shred of evidence that Attanasio is calling the shots. Attanasio had dinner with a guy who lives nearby whom his GM wanted to sign to a big long term deal early in Attanasio's ownership tenure. Nothing suspicious or controlling about that in anyway. No one has any idea how many players Attanasio has met or not met. But this is always used to excuse Melvin for the deal like he was forced into it. Attanasio has always maintained he lets the baseball guys make the baseball calls and it isn't like Melvin has a stellar track record with other pitchers or building a staff. No one seems to blame Attanasio for Gamel's situation last year, Stetter getting sent down, Turnbow and Hall's deals and continued playing time, Counsell playing over Escobar often late last year, Jason Kendalll starting 130 games, Eric Gagne's $10MM deal, etc. Seems to me the mounting evidence is the team gives veteran players and high paid players a very long leash and this situation is no different. Why would this theory be that Attanasio wants to hang on to Suppan in the rotation to prove he was right? He probably didn't make the deal and if anything it is Melvin that wants to keep him around to justify the deal or try and prove he has something and Macha continually starting him since he has shown he preferes veterans over young guys a number of times. Suppan is a sunk cost, the Brewers are paying for him either way. My guess is Macha/Melvin want to see if there is anything at all there before cutting him loose.

Any idea when a new Power 50 may be up? Not trying to rush you guys, just curious. I noticed in the archive link under Power 50 there is a date of 04/20/10 but it just brings up a technical difficulty page holder. Thanks in advance for the work you guys put into it.

I wouldn't say it is the worst idea to trade one. You have to give something of value in order to get something of value in return and catching prospects who can hit tend to fall into that valuable trade chip area. Letting one guy rot on the bench for years or sit in the minors longer than necessary will only diminish the value of the player. Dealing from a postion of strength allows the team to fill weaknesses in say pitching.

I'll guess Brad Penny, just because he is coming back from injury, is a little older, and still throws gas.

Check out this site http://www.antennaweb.org/aw/welcome.aspx They provide a lot of information on not just the antenna's but the compass headings for the direct line for the best signal. I know a lot of people who live in a city but can't get one channel in particular because it's best line is directly opposite all the other channels in the area so without an amplified antenna or a much bigger antenna they have to move the rabbit ears. When I lived on the SW side of Madison I could not get 15-1 (NBC) unless I moved the antenna and then lost most of the other signals. Now living in Waunakee I can get everything except 47-1 (FOX) without moving the antenna.

So in the end we are back to the results on the field are what matters. Not projections, not under or over performers, or excuses but wins and losses. For some being around .500 every years is good enough, for others reaching the playoffs more often than once a decade or more is expected. Just speaking for me, being a perennial middle of the pack team isn't good enough, I'd take a few last place finnishes if it also meant a few 1st place finishes.

Or it just means that no amount of runs scored or lead generated is enough with this pitching staff.

I don't think fans think of being in the World Series every year is realistic but I fall into the camp of not being satisfied with barely scraping and clawing once during his tenure and then slowling slipping back to the morass of mediocrity. I don't really think of the team as really competitive last year. The team wasn't the worst in the league but being below 500 and having the worst pitching staff in baseball has to put some negative light on the guy. The question for me is was the one playoff appeareance it, and now we have years of 3rd place finishes as upside and winning 82 games or wil the team consistent be a contender for a playoff appearance. I mean really a contender, not just a team having a good May or something and being 2 games out in June, but playing meaningful games in September with a realistic shot. As Joepepsi said, Melvin doesn't make the obvious blunders but that was sort of my point in an earlier post. He doesn't take big risks so he doesn't make huge mistakes but in trade for limiting the downside, he also limits the upside. This may be why he has been able to turn a miserable state of affairs into a .500 type team but it also makes it hard to get up to that next level of 90+ wins. The window is closing on the current crop of cheap players with Fielder nearing free agency, Hardy already shipped off, and the talk is already on the next group of guys. At some point if the team plateaus here in the 79-83 wins year in and year out I think Melvin will get dumped. He will probably catch on with another rebuilding team like KC, PITT, maybe even Houston and proably do a good job picking them off the bottom.

I guess that's probably not so bad then. Just didn't want him to start feeling like he was getting thrown at purposely.

Not able to watch at work but did I read correctly that Fielder was hit by 2 more pitches today? I know he crowds the plate but it seems like he is getting hit fairly often, did they look like just inside pitches or brushbacks? I just wonder when he is going to get pissed about getting hit so often.

I thought of this scenario as well, Suppan pitching well through some magical combination of stiff breeze blowing in and hung over cubs or something and then Macha/Melvin using it as justification to watch him get lit up for the next 10 starts before giving up. I imagine the press conferences where the two of them remind everyone of those 6 solid innings he threw in April and depite 30 or 40 wreteched innings since he is real close and just needs a chance to regain his form.

If that's all you can get for Fielder, then you just let him play out the next two years and walk. I'm not arguing that you could get more, because I wouldn't be surprised if that was all they could get. The Brewers always seem to have bad timing with these sorts of things, while other teams make out like bandits. A 20 year old AA player with upside and 2 type prospects may still be better than rolling the dice on a late first round pick and a sandwich pick. A team rarely gets equal value when an elite level player leaves via trade or free agency but in the case of trading for minor leaguers you may have little more surety in the quality of the return versus the even bigger crapshoot of the draft.

Once again TheCrew07 has put my thoughts into a much better more concrete post. I say thanks for taking the time to write out the multiple paragraphs. I agree, prospects are not guarantee but they have at least passed one hurdle even if it is just competing versus low minor league talent and probably played more games in a season than ever before to help judge how their body holds up. No talent is really can't miss but the closest ones are going to be taken in the top 10 which won't be available draft picks as comp. I know this is just a repeat of TheCrew07's post but it bears noting that those top picks won't be available as comps. It will be middle to late first round and sandwhich picks.

You're right no one should ever be critical of the their team or mad about bad losses. That is why I love Cub fans so much, they always tell everyone how great every player on their team is and why this is their year.

I was afraid to check the box score again after seeing the Brewers with a nice lead late in the game. After picking up my jaw that they blew it again I came here to read what happened. I am totally ticked and dumbfounded to try and figure out why a LHer or anyone wasn't brought in to face Fukudome. I can see saving Parra if Macha thinks he may need him to cover a short Soup outing tomorrow but why on earth is a LOOGY sitting in the bullpen unused in that situation? Because we can't possibly have a LOOGY pitch in a save situation? When a reliever has thrown 35 pitches and clearly isn't getting it done why leave him in when there are options? I know it sounds like a vent but it is so frustrating to watch a team that is probably only a low 80's win anyway givng away games. I didn't like Macha as a hire in the beginning, he has only grated on me more as time went by last year and now this makes me just want him fired now. Sort of like the having Shouse walk Ryan Howard to face Pat Burrell debacle of the Yost demise.