MJLiverock

I didn't watch a single pitch of the playoffs this year due to a number of personal factors like hating so many of the teams involved (Cardinals, Yankees, Giants, A's) and just a busy family life right now. In past years I would always end up catching some of the game, even watching the Yankees or Cardinals just because it was on. Now with the DVR and backlog of other shows I like available at anytime I found the brief windows of TV time at night spent watching my favorite shows and I was able to FFWD the non stop political ads as well. As a kid I always watched the games but now I have way less time and far more choices thanks to the DVR. Not to mention by season's end I've watched tons of baseball which in years past wasn't as easy prior to nearly every Brewer game being on TV.

Projected Arbitration #s from MLBTraderumors.com Brewers (9) John Axford - $5.1MM Carlos Gomez - $3.4MM Nyjer Morgan - $2.6MM Jose Veras - $2.6MM Kameron Loe - $2.6MM Manny Parra - $1.6MM Marco Estrada - $1.6MM Travis Ishikawa - $900K Chris Narveson - $800K Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2013.html#SVC6OJ3JhEvrkRee.99 Also saw a note that Marcum, Gonzalez, and KRod have elected Free Agency.

I think it had to do with the self promotion and constant in your face, Lance Armstrong is the greatest of all time, adoration heaped upon him while he constantly denied any accusation of doping and intimidated and threatened people who spoke against him while everyone around him and associated with him was getting busted for it. There are still people who think he didn't dope, my boss (not even a hard core cycle fan, more of a wannabe) used to argue vehemently that he was clean and that someone like him couldn't have doped, he is a cancer survivor, blah blah... as if that exempts him from cheating. Barry Bonds is/was one of my favorite players, I know he took steroids along with most of the league when he played. I think the government going after him was a waste of time and money especially given how many other guys have been busted or admited/denied and failed tests. But Bonds was never put on the pedestal of Armstrong and even Armstrong didn't have to face a U.S. Government attack and attempt of jail time. I liken the Armstrong supporters to the PSU fans who delusionally keep acting as if their institution did no wrong and punishment heaped upon them is unfair.

If you want to make the argument that WAR really tells us precisely how many wins a player is worth vs. another player then why does the cumulative WAR of hitting, pitching, and fielding for the Angels indicate they should have won 14 more games than the Tigers despite only winning 1 more game? Maybe WAR really doesn't precisely tell us that 1 WAR is 1 Win when comparing players.

What WAR numbers are you referencing and what are they taking into account (offense, base running, fielding and pitching?). What level of correlation between team WAR and team record do you expect? There are huge discrepancies between team wins and team runs scored and runs against. Do you find that troublesome as well? If we want to have an intelligent discussion about WAR, someone start a thread on it because I don't think we are having one here. This isn't the place anyway. It was just straight WAR from Fangraphs by team. As far as expected correlation I would expect there to be some positive correlation but not a direct 1 WAR is 1 win which is often used when people say things like adding player X will really only get a team 1 more win or losing a player is only going to be a 2 win change based on comparing WARs between two players. That is what I find troublesome the over reliance on the predictable strength of WAR and wins because of the messed up defensive metrics and the completely arbitrary and fictional "replacement level" which is the base of the stat. It stuck out to me that the Angels have such a higher WAR than the Tigers yet that hasn't translated into a much higher win total, in simple terms either the WAR for the Angels is inflated or the Tigers is suppressed relative to the actual results. This may all fall into the timing of hits etc. hence the completely awful WAR level of the Orioles relative to their win total but that too leads directly to the MVP race in that is a hit or stolen base as valuable when up by 7 or down by 1? WAR makes zero attempt at that rather difficult situational hitting adjusment or the hated clutch factor but obviously something in the timing of hits, K's, SB's results matters or the Brewers and Orioles wouldn't be on such opposite ends of WAR spectrum relative to their wins. Or in the MVP race, the Tigers/Cabrera may have just been better at getting the big hit when needed than the Angels/Trout. I think it is interesting here as WAR has been used as the basis for claiming Trout is hands down the MVP and it isnt' close. I think it is very close and I don't disagree that Trout plays a tougher position and plays D very well but winning a Triple Crown is very rare and hasn't even happened in my lifetime. I won't be upset if either wins it.

Ahh the good old inconsistencies of WAR and the abuse of trying to prove player Z is worth X number of wins over player Y. It looks pretty strange when the Angels have the highest aggregate WAR of 37.8 and 89 wins while the Tigers have a WAR of 21.2 and 87 wins, so 16.6 difference in WAR is 2 wins? In reality once you start looking at team WAR and compare to actual wins the numbers are all over so I have a hard time buying into any of the a 5 WAR player is worth 1 win over a 4 WAR player. After the Angels the Brewers are #2 in WAR at 35.1 with 82 wins, Cards at 34.9 and 87, Giants 30 and 93, Braves 29.8 and 93, Yankees 29.7 and 93, Nats 29 and 96, Reds 27.4 and 96, Diamondbacks 27.3 and 80, Rangers 26.6 and 93, Padres 25.6 and 75, Phillies 24 and 81, A's 23.1 and 92, Tigers 21.2 and 87 down at the bottom the Astros are 10.1 and 54, Indians 12.5 and 73, Mariners 12.5 and 67 and the Orioles 15.9 and 92.

Well Jim I saw a stack of biographies at Barnes and Noble the other day about that guy called the "The Situation" from Jersey Shore. Granted they were in the deep discount bin but somehow a publisher thought he was a worthy subject. I almost bought one as a gag gift but thought better of feeding that hype machine.

It's not like the Seahawk's offense did anything in the game to claim they deserved to win either. I would argue that managing a whopping 214 yards of offense prior to the hail mary would equate to getting beat just as much as the Packer's giving up sacks in the first half.

Which is why I say just put the best players of the generation in the Hall of Fame, I don't care that some have admitted using PEDs, they were so rampant that in relation to the competition in MLB the gain didn't matter.

I think you answered the Bedard issue with anyone could have him now for league minimum and no one is biting. I want no part of him as long man/spot starter. He's not even being brought in by teams like the Astros, Cubs, etc. to see if he has anything left. He doesn't deserve a spot on a 25 man roster now and won't next year.

Looks like the last game Ishikawa played before injury was May 25th and was out for a month. Gamel went down on May 1st so May was really the time of trying to find a first baseman. Hart started appearing at 1B in box scores by at least May 15th so just before Ishikawa went down. It looks like the Brewers were trying to give Green and Ishikawa some playing time at 1B but Ishikawa was forcing the playing time by putting up much better numbers than Green. In May Ishikawa was .375/.525/.900 in 40 ABs vs. Green at .300/.326/.626 in 43 ABs. I think Hart started working in as they looked for a RH option at 1B because they actually had used Brooks Conrad at 1B in May. Aoki appears quite often in CF and RF during May racking up 73ABs so I wouldn't say he was rotting on the bench prior to Ishikawa going down.

Ran across this article from the Milwaukee Mag via Twitter about Trenni Kusnierek that was interesting. Always kinda wondered why the MLB Network gig didn't seem to last very long. http://www.milwaukeemag.com/article/9182012-TheTrenniKusnierekYouDontKnow

Given the bullpen situation in Milwaukee I could see protecting Wooten instead of Bucci and seeing if he can be of use next year. I think the other 4 may be the consensus picks.

Given the bullpen situation in Milwaukee I could see protecting Wooten instead of Bucci and seeing if he can be of use next year. I think the other 4 may be the consensus picks.

I know this has delved way off topic and I know what you are getting at with which is causing which and I thought of that point as well but when I looked at the numbers again it still looks like a 1.0 WAR is about what the true mythical "replacement level" pitching level is. No one is going to sign a starting pitcher they don't expect to throw 120 innings or probably even more. In 2011 of the 130 guys with 120 IP 17 had an ERA or higher, and 11 of those guys had a WAR of 1 including John Lackey and his 6.41 ERA putting up a 1.6 ERA. Even using xFIP of 4.7s are generating WARs over 1. That looks a lot like replacement level pitching. If a team is willing to just let you sit there an throw a bunch of ineffective innings it will generate a 1 WAR. Or if they pull you at 100 innings and put the next ineffective guy in who likely isn't any better, basically perfectly defining Pitcher A as replacement level, you can add the two totally ineffective guys WARs together at get over 1.0 pretty easily just because combined they threw 150+ innings even if they both had ERAs over 4.8.

I know it a lightning rod but WAR is a garbage stat to me, even for pitchers. Anyone who throws 150 innings can get a WAR of 1.0, look at 2011 (picked for last full season) of the 107 guys, only 10 didn't put up a 1.0 WAR. Dropping it to only 130 innings only 16 of 126 guys didn't generate a 1.0 WAR. Pretty much any back of the rotation guy can put up a 1.0 WAR, which the Brewers don't need more of, or at least aren't anything to get excited about in my view, every year there are guys like that out there or filling in AAA until injury. Looking at 2012 Roy Oswalt gets a 0.6 WAR for 54 poor innings, if only the Rangers would let him get blasted for another 50 innings he too could get to a 1.0 WAR. I just don't look at this free agent pool as anything special, especially knowing the Red Sox have a ton of money to toss around, the Dodgers and Cubs are wild cards on spending and a number of teams are looking for guys to fill out their rotation creating lot of competition for the limited guys who could improve the Brewers rotation beyond filling from within at the back end of the rotation. Regarding Bush v Blanton if you mean fatter by bigger I agree, both are 6-2 or 6-3 depending on site, Blanton has him by 40 lbs or so but their velocities are pretty similar Blanton 89.4 vs. Bush Career 88.4 both K the same 6.1/9, walk the same 2.3/9, GB similar at 44.1% vs. 42.3%, HR 10.3% and 11.7% even with the help Blanton received by playing in Oakland. http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=4849&position=P&page=4&players=4635

I guess it depends on how you define "deep" - the talent level of the group of free agent starting pitchers relative to the group of starting pitchers that will remain under contract this offseason isn't great, and it never will be. However, the group of free agent starting pitchers is quite deep when you compare it with previous offseasons. It isn't a bunch of top end guys (though there are a few of those), but there are a bunch of starters who will deservedly get multi-year deals, if they want them. Among them, Joe Blanton, Ryan Dempster, Zack Greinke, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Colby Lewis (if healthy), Francisco Liriano (maybe not deserving, but probably will get one), Kyle Lohse, Shaun Marcum (if healthy), Brandon McCarthy (if healthy), Anibal Sanchez and Joe Saunders. Other guys like Ervin Santana (if his option is declined), Carlos Villanueva, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jeremy Guthrie, Kevin Correia and Erik Bedard will all get major league deals, if not for more than a year. Some teams will fill rotation holes via trade, which further dilutes the pool. That's kind of a lot of guys who are capable of giving lots of at least decent major league innings. Here is how I look at that list: Grienke - - expensive big contract, not likely but still a good pitcher Dempster - - old and likely to get a mulit year deal for more money than he should Blanton - - back of the rotation guy but not someone I would get to excited about in Miller Park - Dave Bush Jackson and A. Sanchez- - interesting, inconsistent but probably the most reasonable combo of age, upside, and salary Kuroda - - old and likely to stay in NY or go back to LA if on a short deal Saunders -- similar to rolling the dice on Randy Wolf 3 years ago, maybe OK or maybe terrible depending on money and length Ervin Santana - HR's have killed his ERA this season, not sure why velocity down and K's down. at least not old and washed up or coming off injury Lohse - - scares me with his smoke and mirrors putting up results as a Cardinal. low BABIP, high strand rate, no K's Villanueva - - hasn't been a full time starter, interesting because could be a bullpen, spot starter help Bedard got cut by the Pirates, he just might be done. Dice-K also appears pretty bad after never living up to the hype and then injuries. Guthrie and Corriea are 4th or 5th guys something the team already has plenty of. the rest are all prayers that injuries won't make already not too inspiring results. McCarthy's numbers don't look so good outside of the A's park. Jackson and Sanchez, or Santana are probably the only guys I'd be interested in signing out of that group. Dempster maybe if no more than 2 years, maybe Marcum on a 1 year pending how his arm really is and since the team has seen him up close to getter better feel. Outside of Greinke and Kuroda the rest are 4th or 5th starters when the Brewers should be using Peralta, Rogers, Estrada, Thornburg, in those slots. I just don't see the #2 or #3 starters I would expect to call a free agent class deep, mostly a bunch of usual offseson chaff, back of the rotation guys and reclamation projects.

I had this thought myself last night, I wondered what the record has been since the firing of Stan Kyles. I don't think it made some huge difference and as others have said, it is probably just an evening out of truly historically bad performances. I don't agree that it was a bush move, it is common practice to fire some assistant, position coach when things aren't going well. These guys all know that they are hired to be fired at some point. Sure it is usually scapegoating but it is the reality of the job.

Where is this deep FA pitching pool I see mentioned? Outside of a small group all I see are a bunch of old, oft injured guys, reclamation projects, and has beens.

This reminded me of my birthday experiences at small company. In my mid 20's I worked for a firm with about 25 employees, 4 guys and 20 or so women. Birthdays were a huge deal, lunch was usually brought in and a fairly expensive gift was given. I'm talking $200 gifts for your birthday from the office and coworkers. (Everyone was encouraged to chip in $5 plus the company usually kicked in $100). The problem was as a mid 20's guy, the gifts pretty much sucked. I received a bunch of decorative plates from some art fair one year, a bunch of gigantic wooden bowls one year, etc. It was like on Christmas as a kid when you opened a present and got socks, you had to fein happiness and make up some lie about how you liked it or had some use for it. The gift were expensive so I could never really point out how utterly useless they were to me but no one ever seemed to think, "Hey maybe a single 25 year old guy doesn't have a use for a boxed set of Christopher Radko ornaments and wreaths." A few of the younger women would always laugh privately with me about the total disregard for getting me something I might like, instead of my boss buying things she liked or thought I should like. The rule was always no gift cards or gift certificates but they all knew I was a huge sports fan so it wasn't like they couldn't have bought tickets to a Brewer game or Badger game.

It actually doesn't bother me that Molitor doesn't have a statue. If he got one I wouldn't be opposed to it, he is the Hall of Fame after all so if the team said, all HOF Brewers get a statue out front I can't argue with that. But if they want to keep it more special and reserve statues for more face of the franchise all time greats I can see how he wouldn't get one. Aaron, is a no brainer even though he played mostly for Milwaukee Braves, Yount and Uecker too. Molitor didn't play his whole career here, and although he got to 3000 hits, it was elsewhere and 2281 hits as a Brewer doesn't scream needs a statue to me. Cecil Cooper had 1800+ hits as Brewer and is third on the franchise list and had 7 year run from 77-83 that was as good or better than any stretch for Molitor as a Brewer and no one is looking for a Coop statue. Don't get me wrong, Molitor was a great player when healthy but his career numbers as a Brewer don't make me demand a statue for him. He missed so many games and was limited to DHing during what should have been the prime of his career in Milwaukee only to have a remarkable resurgence from age 34-41 over his last 8 seasons which only 2 were spent in Milwaukee. Amazingly he raised his career BA, SLG and OPS during those usual decline years while amassing 1449 of his hits. Prior to his final 8 years he had a .798 OPS and 1800 hits before exploding but again most of that was in other uniforms.

Hungry and cheap doesn't guarantee good however.

I agree jericho, $15MM and $20MM just isn't going to get what it used to so the idea that all these other teams are stupid for taking on big contracts or that the Brewers are going to get above average players at $10MM or less is just going to be harder and harder to believe.

Excerpt from a Barclays research report on Disney's new deal today. According to Sports Business Daily, ESPN signed a new 8-year deal with Major League Baseball for $5.6B, which equates to an annual cost of $700M, up from the ~$350M rights increase is substantial, we continue to believe in the rising value of sports content, particularly in a world where content is increasingly viewed on a time-shifted basis. ESPN now has the rights for the three most popular professional sports (NFL, NBA, MLB) locked up through at least 2016. Reported 8-year deal for $5.6B: As part of the new deal, ESPN gains the rights to 10 additional regular season games, any potential regular season tiebreaker games, a wildcard game, and hundreds more studio programming hours. Similar to the Monday Night Football deal, the MLB deal also includes more expansive digital and online rights. NFL, NBA, and MLB locked up through at least 2016. ESPN has locked up the rights for Monday Night Football through 2021, NBA basketball through 2016, and now MLB baseball through 2021. Laterals include NWSA (FOX) and TWX (TBS), whose MLB deals also expire in 2013: Fox and TBS currently pay roughly $250M and $150M, respectively, to the league for their MLB rights packages. We think a new deal could see increases in the same ballpark as the ESPN deal. My comment: More money for teams means more more money for salaries.