Fear The Chorizo

Look at their schedule for next season - 3 rebuilding NFC North teams probably good for 5 or 6 wins, NFC East probably 3 auto wins, AFC East probably 3 auto wins, and then the other 1st place teams who will either be decimated (Tampa Bay), retooling (Tennessee), or both (Rams) due to cap issues/retirements/etc in 2022....If Rodgers and Adams are back on even a diminished roster, assuming their Oline is reasonably healthy you can almost pencil another 12+ win season by default. Plus, the NFC looks ripe for the picking with the Rams likely taking a big step back, the 49ers breaking in a new QB, the NFC south being a trainwreck, and the NFC East being muddled led by an overrated Cowboy Squad once again.

I'll give the Bengals credit for winning their last two playoff games and squeaking by an uneven Raiders team at home on this run - but Tennessee and the Chiefs in particular did everything they could to keep them in the game and their own breakdowns led to those losses. They've got playmakers on offense for sure - but what's impressed me the most about Cincy this playoffs is the plays their defense has made at key moments to put them in position to win. That's what's carried them more than dropping 35 points on quality opponents.

Doubt I watch much of this one - seeing these two teams in the Super Bowl makes me even more sick at the thought of Packer special teams knowing GB and 2-3 other teams knocked out of the playoffs would win head to head matchups against either the Rams or Bengals 8 out of 10 times. Hope the Bengals win and then promptly give Burrow a Mahomes extension and then have their trainwreck of an Oline lead to him running for his life the rest of his career. I have a hard time seeing Aaron Donald and the rest of that front being denied while playing a home Super Bowl, though. Cincy would probably be better off setting out a 7-man sled to pass protect.

According to this article, it has happened several times in the past few seasons: https://lionswire.usatoday.com/lists/history-of-the-tag-and-trade-outcomes-for-franchise-players-and-teams/ Adams is arguably more valuable than any player on that list. I would expect at least a 1st, or a good player and a 2nd or 3rd. And frankly, if the Packers don't get the value they want in a trade for Adams, they likely would've already freed up cap room to get him tagged and they could hold onto him until a good trade package materializes or just roll with him into the season. I'm sure he wouldn't want to play under the franchise tag - but then again a 1 year deal around $19M is tough to pass up for a receiver in his age 29-30 season. Hearing random rumors that Rodgers wants the team he plays for next season to have Adams and MVS on it....honestly the one team capable of making all that happen that isn't the Packers is Denver - and they'd be mortgaging their own future both on the salary cap and draft pool side if they want to pull the trigger in a conference that is loaded with young quarterback talent and seemingly tougher competition to reach the Super Bowl.

I think the Packers are looking forward to their 2022 season with Alexander and Stokes playing cornerback, and they'll need to pay the piper before too long to extend Alexander. Would love to have Surtain, Jr., but honestly CB isn't the position the Packers should focus on adding young impact talent to their roster. Jeudy at WR, or perhaps Fant at TE - but the picks coming back should headline any trade of Rodgers.

I think they can still have plenty of confidence in Love eventually being the guy, but also really want to keep around the quarterback who has won the last 2 league MVP awards for the next year or two if he wants to finish his career in Green Bay. If that winds up costing the Packers a chance at seeing whether Love could be a quality starting QB for them, I honestly could care less if during that 4-5 year stretch the Packers were routinely among the top Super Bowl contenders. The next longterm QB option will be available to pick whenever Rodgers is done if Love isn't around. Completely agree that Love was drafted in large part based on what Rodgers looked like in 2018-2019. Rodgers regained MVP form, and when you have the best player in the league the Packers aren't at fault for trying to ride that wave as far as it takes them - even if it means staying on the ride a little too long. Hell, I don't even consider it a wasted 1st round pick if that resulted in rededicating and motivating Rodgers to become MVP-caliber again the past two seasons. After the 2nd year of Rodgers as a Packer, he gave zero indication he'd eventually be the heir apparent to Favre and that was viewed as a wasted 1st round pick, too.

Its too bad the Giants are a salary cap mess and most of their roster in the trenches stinks....that pair of top 10 1sts would look pretty good headlining a trade package for #12, and including Golladay as a cap relief receiver in his prime on a market value contract (assuming he can ever stay healthy) would be a good way to offset losing Adams in a hypothetical package deal. Even if Golladay is talented, I doubt GB would want to take on a big cap number receiver as part of this sort of trade, and the Giants are definitely in rebuild mode. Otherwise, playing in NY would definitely be attractive to Rodgers.

I'm pretty certain thats not how it will work, especially once Rodgers signs a new contract. Teams aren't going to send multiple 1st round picks for a qb on a 1 yr deal and then have him be a free agent for 2023. And even if Rodgers stays in GB, it will be under a new contract. His 2022 cap number is an incentive to deal Rodgers if he wants to move on - but if he wants to stay its just as big an incentive to hammer out a new contract and lower his 2022 cap number themselves.

Regardless of who the new special teams coach is, job #1 is getting a kicker in here that is as close to an automatic kickoff touchback machine so their return units don't have to do anything, like pretty much the rest of the league. Crosby really hurt them on kickoffs this season with his diminishing leg strength

All of his NFL coaching experience has been with special teams. Based on how that's gone in GB since 2018 - particularly coverage and return units - over the past 3 seasons he's been in town, I want no part of Drayton taking a coaching role elsewhere on the staff. Sure, an instant firing earlier this week right after coaching exit meetings would indeed have placated fans, but that doesn't mean doing so would've been unjustified or the wrong approach to immediately move forward as an organization, IMO.

Unless the guy you want is coaching on a team still playing football this weekend. Considering his Rams ties, wouldn't be shocked if he'd go to that well. I stated in my post above that I'd have no problem having the position open for awhile to accommodate this sort of scenario if MLF indeed has someone in mind still coaching/assisting on a team alive in the playoffs - but there's zero reason to delay Drayton getting fired because of it, IMO.

Publicly, there's a fine line to walk between trying to be respectful to an individual by waiting a bit for the pitchforks to get put away and waiting too long to make the obvious move official that leads to the pitchforks to start getting directed towards you - and that timing varies by just how bad the on-field results are in the case of a coordinator's role. In this case, special teams were awful the entire season and appeared to get worse, not better, as the year went on. Posters here were calling for the in-season firing of Drayton by midseason along with team reporters asking about Drayton's job security and they were justified in doing so. I hope Drayton would've been pleading for better personnel on his ST units - in a way that's probably why the Packers wound up using a bunch of starters on those units down the stretch as a last ditch effort to prevent that unit from costing them a playoff game. That didn't work, either. If the person they hire comes from completely outside the organization, I'll be happy - because they honestly can do no worse than the internal ST hirings over the past few seasons. Isn't it also entirely possible he's already been told he's fired and it just hasn't been a public announcement? Don't you think if they're firing him they already have a candidate(s) in mind, perhaps one that is a lower profile and not likely to be poached elsewhere? Honestly, if that's the case then there's no point waiting to make it official/public. And if they have a candidate in mind, why risk losing that candidate by delaying this firing? I'd have no problem with them having a ST coordinator opening for awhile if they do have someone in mind who they currently can't hire if their team is still alive in the playoffs.

A new coordinator can't get interviewed & hired until the current one gets fired - and this is the perfect time to be actively interviewing replacement candidates, since many of the new coaches/GMs recently hired haven't yet gotten their full staffs on board. What makes me question why this hasn't moved more quickly is Tabor's hiring to Carolina. Carolina had a poor special teams unit, fired their coordinator right after their season ended, and promptly hired a highly respected coordinator who was available after the Bears' house cleaning two weeks later. If a non-playoff team can make that move so quickly, why can't the #1 seed in a conference who got bounced in the playoffs because of special teams? Since the Packers now have the deserved reputation of special teams futility that has continued to try and fix the problem with internal hiring, if I'm in their front office I'd want to leave no stone unturned and change that perception by making it obvious the position is open and they are seeking to bring in someone external in effort to change the culture. The Pettine example actually supports my point, because he was fired sooner than whenever Drayton gets canned (5 days after that NFCCG compared 6 and counting for Drayton). I guess if they want to be consistent with Friday afternoon being a deserved whacking day for coordinators following playoff loss debacles, we should be hearing something official later today.

Almost a full week after the debacle that lasted an entire season and was the primary reason the Packers aren't playing this weekend, how on earth has Drayton not been fired yet? I don't care what the optics are, or frankly the current professional/personal relationships - the entire special teams coaching staff need to go, and the Packers need to bring in a new coordinator who can bring in their own staff to run that unit. I know their offensive coaching staff is in a state of flux with Hackett being hired by the Broncos and potentially taking some other staff with him - but in no way should that preclude the Packers from aggressively looking to revamp their special teams coaching staff. Other teams have already been poaching respected coordinators with a history of solid special teams units from staffs whose coaches were fired (Tabor from the Bears just went to the Panthers). Why is this taking so long??

So did the last one - nailing an introductory press conference is probably the easiest thing a GM has to do, and honestly one of the most pointless to actually turn a franchise into a perennial contender. Spielman never struck me as all that bright when he was doing the ESPN thing prior to the Vikings. He was on ESPN for 1 season in between GM and personnel director/VP gigs after he left Miami during the 2005 offseason and updated his resume for the next round of front office openings the following offseason. He left the Dolphins after they basically handed Saban the keys to everything there, so he jumped ship/was forced out at the onset of that debacle even if some of his personnel decisions prior to that prompted Saban's hiring - he also had an extensive background in scouting/personnel departments for multiple NFL organizations prior to that. The ESPN gig was simply a paycheck for him with perks of staying in touch with NFL organizations - if he came off sounding like a football dunce while in front of a TV camera I'm certain a big part of that was just matching the acumen of other talking heads and personalities he was surrounded by on that network. I'm not saying Spielman is a genius, and many of his personnel decisions over the years prove otherwise - but he definitely knew how to talk the talk and say the right things at a press conference. I wish the new Vikes' GM luck - he's got alot of tough decisions to make in order to try and quickly improve the mess the previous regime left him, and not alot of time before the thin but talented roster requires a full-on rebuild.

Almost $40M in cap savings would happen if they cut the Smiths, Cobb, and Crosby. Of those 4 veterans, only P. Smith had a 2021 worth wanting to try and keep him around. IF Rodgers wants back in GB, it will certainly be under a new contract that is structured to significantly reduce his 2022 cap hit from ~$46M down somewhere in the $20s - those moves alone get the team into the ballpark were a few other restructures and targeted cuts free up enough space to resign Adams if they want. It all hinges on Rodgers, but the Packers have options on how to run it back again next season and not have the salary cap severely limit what they do with their own roster.

So did the last one - nailing an introductory press conference is probably the easiest thing a GM has to do, and honestly one of the most pointless to actually turn a franchise into a perennial contender.

Rodgers didn't start until his 4th year, so if Rodgers comes back I think you keep Love around as the backup to potentially have him as the 2023 starter if Rodgers retires/leaves after next season. With Love's 5th year option, I believe the Packers would have until early May of 2023 to decide whether or not they would exercise that escalator. Assuming Love doesn't get much of any significant playing time through year 3 (very likely if Rodgers sticks around next season), his 5th year escalator would be somewhat difficult to predict but not debilitating. I believe the rule would be his 5th year option would be the average of the 3rd-25th highest QB salaries headed into the 2023 regular season. That would be a significant jump, but one the Packers would probably be ok with making knowing that cost wouldn't come until the 2024 regular season if they view him as the heir apparent and presume Rodgers will be gone in 1-2 more seasons. Love's cap hit in 2022 will be ~$3.4M, for 2023 it will be ~$4M. It's the 2024 season when his cap hit would jump to around $15M assuming the 5th year option is picked up. However, if Rodgers does ink a longterm extension this offseason that makes sense for him to be in GB for at least 3-4 more seasons the Packers should just go ahead and deal Love now.

Good for him - hopefully he can take some of the concepts he developed with Arians/Brady to improve Lawrence's efficiency and see that team take a big jump in year #2 of Trevor.

Agreed that any trade of Rodgers shouldn't include a veteran starting quarterback with a sizeable contract in return as the primary part of the package. If another team really wants to trade for Rodgers and has a different quarterback with a contract they need to unload to avoid instantly putting themselves in their own cap hell, let them figure it out on their own - hell, let them deal the other QB away for additional picks they can send to GB as part of acquiring Rodgers. If Rodgers is gone, the Packers need to hand the team over to Love for the next two seasons to see what they have in him - that along with making the necessary cuts and veteran contract restructures (and trading Adams after franchising him) will get the team in a much better position longterm with the salary cap, and will allow them to extend other key young players as the cap progressively increases the next few years (Alexander, Gary, Jenkins, etc). I'm torn between wanting this to happen this offseason, or for Rodgers to want back after redoing his contract to resemble what Brady did in TB to make his cap number the next couple seasons very manageable and defer the cap hits into years where the salary cap will be higher. There will be a way to make both options happen if Rodgers and the front office are truly in a good spot and on the same page a few weeks from now.

I think some of those lineman that make their line great are set to be free agents, too.

Sort of, but this year's special teams were so bad that the Packers were actually sending starters to play coverage/return units on special teams - Dillon getting hurt early in the 2nd half on special teams really diminished the Packers' offense on a field where they really could've used their hammer RB to move the chains on a snowy, slick field. Their backups were so poor on special teams that they resorted to playing starters and risking their health to try and improve that unit. I think their roster construction approach, which tends to hold onto more OL and TEs compared to RBs and LBs diminishes the overall athleticism of special teams units. Along with a coaching staff change to bring in fresh blood, the Packers need to view the bottom 3-4 roster spots on next year's squad from the lens of prioritizing the best special teams players and potentially cutting other backups who may be more offense/defense development candidates a few seasons from now.

I believe Tampa has a ton of pending free agents and will likely be the team that just guts itself and goes full rebuild mode (at least for 2022) if Brady hangs up the cleats. They found a way to bring the band back together this past offseason, but they are a team that's long in the tooth and will have to pay the piper for their approach to last year's Super Bowl title. They can say retool, and they do have some core pieces to build around - but it will no longer be a team just in need of a quarterback once Brady retires. I thought for a hot minute they may be a potential destination for Rodgers via trade if Brady does indeed retire and Rodgers/Pack move on from one another, but after looking at their current roster construction I don't really see it being a good fit for 2022. Not saying in any way it was the wrong approach because it won them a title - just that they knew the piper would need to be paid for it.

That play towards the end of the game where Rodgers heaved to a double-covered Adams is a very good illustration of a predetermined throw, even if the play was likely designed for Lazard cutting wide open across the field towards the void Adams creates by streaking deep. It's either that or Rodgers didn't anticipate the 49ers blitzing from so far off the line of scrimmage and just assumed Lazard's route would be covered up and had no faith in the play developing as designed. If he wanted to go deep, he had ESB in 1-on-1 on the other side of the field on that play, too.

Definitely something to this - There are multiple long snappers and core special teams players on other teams that were once on the Packers and let go because they weren't capable backups/developmental starters on offense or defense, but wound up making nice careers on special teams.