Why do we all assume in these scenarios that the Cubs and Cards are going to win all their remaining games when they aren't playing each other? The Cards have to face Scherzer today, then travel to AZ to face a decent Dbacks squad after a 4 game road set in Chicago. I'd say the Cards have a better chance to finish 2-2 than 4-0. If the Reds' offense shows up today, the Cubs will have their hands full with them once more and also will have a road series at Pittsburgh. 3-1 seems likely for them, but it's not out of the question for a 2-2 based on how they've been playing away from Wrigley. If these teams play 2-2 against their other competition, then the ceiling win totals for these teams would be 93 for the Cards and 91 for the Cubs. Those win totals would assume either team wins all 7 games they have to face each other, which is extremely unlikely. A more realistic scenario would have a 4-3 game edge, meaning the Cards' win ceiling is likely 90 wins, and the Cubs' ceiling is at 88 wins. That means if the brewers go 9-2 they are very likely to win the division outright even under the rosiest Cards scenario, and they could win the division outright by playing 8-3 under the rosiest Cubs scenario (which would leave the Cards at 89 wins). I don't think either of those teams is capable of rattling off an 8-3 or 9-2 stretch of baseball based on how they are playing and who's left on their schedule - that means if the Brewers keep playing well they win this division, even if it's still a 20-ish percent chance of happening entering play today.