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Fear The Chorizo

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Everything posted by Fear The Chorizo

  1. Not sure I've seen the angle of retaining Schoop for 2019 should Hiura be used as part of trade package to land a stud starter with a few years of team control this winter, either. Or if Schoop rights the ship, he'll still have good value to trade this offseason should Hiura be deemed ready to play everyday in Milwaukee starting Opening Day 2019. I have a very difficult time seeing any reason why Schoop would just be released - that would be terrible roster management even if Schoop doesn't get another hit this season. The likely 2019 gameplan is for Shaw to shift back to 3rd after Moose likely opts for FA this offseason, then Schoop is the opening day 2B with Hiura biding time at AAA until he's called up in Juneish.
  2. What Jonathan Villar have you been watching? Villar has 83 Ks in 278 ABs and Schoop has 85 Ks in 374 ABs. Noticed that too...I think that marks the first time ever that villar was viewed as a contact hitter. Must be because he's on a different team now.
  3. Look at Javy Baez's 2018 statline for confirmation that's very possible, even for superior offensive players.
  4. This game has the feel of needing to take whatever advanced scouting reports the Brewers had on Padre hitters and burn them - thankfully there's another game tomorrow
  5. All indications are Evan Phillips is at the point in his development as a late inning reliever where Hader was around this time last year - he's got a live arm with some command issues, and his struggles as a starter point him towards a career in the bullpen. Hader appears to have had more success in the minors as a starter than Phillips, but don't underestimate how valuable a MLB-ready late inning reliever is with basically 6 years of team control. Phillips was the Braves' best relief prospect in terms of actual onfield production in a loaded system this year, regardless of what his top 30 ranking was preseason. I'm not trying to equate Phillips' value at the time of this trade exactly to what Hader's would have been had the Brewers dealt him at last year's deadline, but if in July 2017 we knew that Hader would be a reliever only and not known how dominant he's been at the MLB level since as a shutdown reliever, most of us wouldn't have flinched if he would have headlined a trade for Quintana. Maybe a 2018 Brewer comparable to Phillips would be Woodruff in terms of value? The article below on Zimmerman in mid July indicates he should have been rated much higher in the Braves' system than what he was preseason - lefty collegiate starter drafted in 2017 that led the Brave minor league system in Ks and was already doing well in AA. Not going to throw it through a wall but a fastball in the low 90s with a good repertoire of pitches isn't bad, either. https://www.talkingchop.com/2018/7/10/17551486/the-rise-of-atlanta-braves-minor-league-prospect-bruce-zimmermann IMO, he's a peg below a LH version of Zach Brown, another prospect many here (including myself) highly value. Cumberland seems like a guy who could become a MLB backup catcher with a little offensive ability, and there's value in that - he's definitely had a down year in 2018 compared to what he did across 2 levels in 2017. He's below Nottingham in terms of prospect value, but he's probably about where we saw Nottingham last year in terms of value. Preseason, Encarnacion was probably the highest rated prospect in the Braves' system included in this deal - still a ways off, but his tools remain very projectable for a player that could develop into an all star caliber IF. Essentially a lotto ticket with big upside and a floor that is better than "total flameout". In terms of a comparable Brewers' prospect right now, he's 2 levels below Erceg but 3 years younger, putting up better offensive numbers - tough to pin a completely similar Brewer prospect - I'd say a shade below Erceg's current offensive ability but with Lara's tools to work with at an age where he could really blossom and turn into a big time talent. Encarnacion has a few more years of minor league control to work with compared to Lara, even though they are basically the same age. So, had the Brewers offered Woodruff, Brown, Nottingham, and Lara, plus picked up ODay's $9 million salary and sent $2.5 Million of their international bonus pool money to Baltimore, we'd be ok with that for Gausman? I'd think that was a significant overpay - If anything going through these prospects made me realize just how much better the top end of a system like ATL's is compared to Milwaukee's right now. Baltimore fans might be happier with the return they got for Schoop simply because they're looking at prospect rankings within individual organizations without comparing the actual prospects to each other. Plus, they get to see an initial hot streak from Villar to give them a false sense of him being a controllable asset for the next 3 seasons.
  6. Hitting for power had nothing to do with why Turang was among the players considered to be a potential 1st overall pick in this year's draft following the 2017 Draft - and ironically his change in approach to try and hit for more power before he developed the physical ability for that to come naturally is probably what caused him to drop into the Brewers' lap. Turang will develop plenty of pop - he doesn't have to turn into early career Tulowitzki to be a quality MLB SS a handful of years from now. I think today's game of extreme shifting and emphasis on trying to get everyone to adjust launch angles and strive for HR/slugging has created a market inefficiency for hitters that get on base a ton, don't strike out much, and can put the ball solidly in play by spraying to all fields - exactly the type of player Turang projects to be.
  7. If the Brewers could ever get more than 2-3 hitters in their lineup hitting well at any point this season, the "Sunday Lineup / Rest Day" lineups wouldn't be nearly as troublesome. We notice this because if a lineup has only Cain and Yelich (or insert any 2 Brewer regulars) hot, giving at least one of them a day off leads to "surrender lineup" designations. I think part of the reasoning behind the Moose and Schoop trades is to hopefully have enough decent offensive options at as many positions as possible to try and eliminate feeling like any time a top of the order bat needs a day or goes on the 10 day DL, the offense doesn't turn into a collegiate women's softball team. In theory, having Moose, Shaw, Schoop, Perez, and Arcia on the roster to man 3B, 2B, and SS positions is far superior offensively to the combination of Shaw, Perez, Arcia, Villar, and Sogard/Saladino. It leaves catcher as the one position where they are essentially stuck with internal options to try and muster some offense. Pina/Kratz have been ok recently. When you actually look at what the Brewers have offensively on paper right now, they should be much better moving forward. All that said, the Sunday game results really are maddening and need to improve - however if those losses keep coming after the Brewers have already won a weekend series, we might be hoping for more than what we can realistically expect from a team whose pitching staff isn't built around 3-4 quality starters that can consistently give you 7-8 innings of work and keep the bullpen super rested. The way the Brewer staff is constructed, it can shut teams down most of the time, however the premium bullpen arms need to have consistent rest days. If sacrificing a couple games every 2-3 weeks is what's necessary to prevent the back end from imploding and making many more late inning leads shaky, I'm actually ok with what appears to be their weekly approach to lineup construction - especially now that their secondary options are much more interchangeable than what they were even earlier this year offensively.
  8. I'd guess that Stearns believes he has more than 40 guys he'd like to protect this coming offseason, so some he's using some of the "iffy" guys in trade to acquire players who can help this year's team in their playoff run. When you factor in some of the prospects who don't have to be added to the 40 man just yet for protection, but who are knocking loudly on deserving to be MLB players, there are absolutely still more than 40 guys Stearns would want to protect - even after the deadline moves that included sending 5 of those guys packing (Medeiros, Ortiz, Phillips, Villar, and Lopez)
  9. I was one batter off on my hero AB prediction....Schoop will eventually get his, and I'll take this one!!!
  10. Because it makes absolutely no sense based on what we've seen so far, it's gotta happen. I'm calling Schoop for a hero AB in this game.
  11. I honestly love it - this lineup plus Braun on the bench...and I like Schoop lower in the lineup - had a difficult time understanding why he was instantly the cleanup hitter, particularly with his obp issues
  12. Schoop is 5 years younger, has a full more year of team control, and is a better defender. Their career statlines have OPS separated by ~30 points - which include all of Dozier's prime and essentially the 1st year of Schoop's. Much superior hitter at this stage in their careers, Dozier is not.
  13. If Schoop truly does play SS a few games, that's the reason he was acquired instead of Dozier - we also have to remember Schoop had to face Kershaw in his second game, immediately after his 1st game that occurred following a short notice cross-country flight and insertion into the lineup as a cleanup hitter. Give the dude a week or so to settle into his new surroundings, my goodness...
  14. I am surely hoping that for 2019, we have an actual RF and Thames is traded. Domingo version 2.0 - hopefully more 2017 than 2018...or that guy leading the Southern League in HR (although Ray probably needs a bit more time to develop)
  15. I remember a few years ago, the waiver wire kind of came back to bite the White Sox with Alex Rios - oftentimes teams with waiver priority based on prior year's record put out claims on players to try and block some of their competition from potentially acquiring them. However, the team placing a player on waivers could simply give the team putting in the claim the player and remaining contract to just get out from under the $. The White Sox put a claim on Rios in effort to prevent him clearing waivers and being dealt to the Tigers back in 2009, IIRC - Toronto simply gave the White Sox Rios without any prospects/compensation in return for getting out from ~$60 Million in remaining salary.
  16. Obviously with the Rangers chipping in $ and Hamels' contract being prorated the Cubs aren't paying the full amount...but it's still fun to compare the cost of rotation options #1-7ish for both teams: Cubs - Lester, Darvish, Chatwood, Quintana, Hendricks, Montgomery, Hamels - approximately $101.1 Million for 2018 Brewers - Anderson, Chacin, Guerra, Peralta, Miley, Davies, Suter - approximately $17.7 Million for 2018. 2018 Team starting ERA prior to tonight's game - Cubs 4.14, Brewers 3.85 2018 Team starting IP/game - Cubs 5.36, Brewers 5.30 2018 Team starters Ks - Cubs 476, Brewers 500 LOL!
  17. What makes Nelson's injury unique is it was a non-throwing injury. The other guys listed above all had bad shoulders due to throwing a ball. Seeing Jimmy throwing from a mound is at least a good sign - God knows AA suddenly has a lot of innings to have someone pitch with Medeiros, Ortiz dealt and Brown recovering from that ankle injury.
  18. Gotta think it will be saladino, since I think he can be optioned back to aaa
  19. Did a little digging - Schoop has outperformed Machado offensively over the past month or so, and his above average defense at 2B probably translates to being a better SS defender than what Machado was there as well. It will be very interesting to compare the contributions these two provide LA and the Brewers from here on out. With Schoop having 1 more year until free agency, I'm guessing DS got a statistically comparable player to the top rental bat on the market using a similar trade package that he offered for Machado, and he'll have Schoop for another year of team control to either play in Milwaukee or eventually trade to restock the farm next year.
  20. Turang would have taken Carmona's spot in the SS prospect pecking order as early as next season - a guy who was in discussion to go top-top in this year's draft about 1 year earlier has a high enough ceiling, IMO. The draft pick compensation for Schoop definitely adds some value, but it may also add some value should they decide to shop him this offseason if they truly deem Hiura as ready for MLB come opening day 2019.
  21. Not sure if the Brewers have had a deeper bench than what they'll be able to have active on any given night. Looks like the AAA bullpen shuttle may morph more into the AAA #5 / piggy back starting pitcher shuttle while the bullpen gets leaned on heavily and ample PH options present themselves...I'm expecting to see a story soon mentioning Jimmy Nelson headed to Biloxi to start building some innings up off the mound - with Medeiros and Ortiz gone plus Brown injured with that ankle, that staff suddenly has a lot of innings to dish out... I kind of like it considering what it would've taken to bring in a stud starting pitcher that we'd only get to hand the ball to every 5th game.
  22. I believe Schoop isn't a FA until 2020, so one more season of control
  23. wouldn't shock me to see Villar part of the trade headed to the Orioles
  24. Sometimes a blockbuster trade surfaces just as the deadline passes...this Schoop smoke has the feel of being a precurser trade to incrementally improve the MLB club at 2B and free up a big time prospect in AA to be available to headline something we've assumed was extremely unlikely to happen. Not saying this is what's happening here - but with how the Brewers seem to play so close to the vest there's a chance... Trades often made right at the deadline take a bit of time to get reported...there are still a ton of names we haven't heard anything about that are all but certain to be part of this deadline flurry of activity.
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