Fear The Chorizo

How many innings has Jimmy Nelson pitched so far this season, and what is the likely innings limit the Brewers would want to have for him? Wondering if he'll be at or above the desired total by the end of August, leaving the Brewers with more tough rotation decisions. If Estrada can be optioned to AAA, I'd like to see Nelson called up to get an extended look - even if he pitches well if he reaches his innings limit in late August/early September, Estrada could be recalled to take a few September starts. What's the status on Thornburg and his DL stint? Is there any chance the Brewers decide to get him stretched out for the rotation during the season's 2nd half while he's rehabbing? for a change it's nice to have options that are performance-based, and not forced by injury and lack of depth.

I don't honestly think people are comparing the long term career potential of a Gennett to a Polanco, Taveras, or Trout - part of the debate has to be that the very best prospects with the best physical tools often need time to adjust to MLB, just like the late 20's callups who don't have the physical tools to be All Stars but have the ability to carve out a solid MLB career in their own right...it's all about what players make out of their opportunities when they get them. Trout's likely overblown expectations for all prospects getting called up by how historically great he was almost from the moment he got to Anaheim as a 19-20 yr old kid. ESPN hears that Taveras is getting called up, the next thing they do is have Eric Karabell on for 5 minutes talking about fantasy baseball projections that top 5 outfielders produce...it's silly season with this stuff, and often rookies and young players who never make top 100 prospect lists get completely overlooked early in their careers even if they produce at the MLB level. Jonathan Lucroy is a pretty good example of a player that never was a top 100 prospect who's turned into a guy a few teams would want on their roster. The Pirates or Cardinals aren't going to suddenly be dominant teams just because they call up 22 yr old corner outfielders with a ton of talent - the other 24 guys on their rosters need to be better at baseball in order for them to make an impact at the MLB level. That said, Polanco and Taveras are the type of talents the Brewers hope some of their recent high school draftees turn into by the time they are 22.

Didn't Gibson play college football? by the sound of him, he may have gotten a few too many concussions earlier in life.

I just find it ironic that Law was always first to criticize the Brewers for going too safe in recent drafts (admittedly correct analysis), then with the Brewers already having a farm system full of limited upside roster filler they go with boom/bust type players with high ceilings and high risk, and he criticizes them for not going safe enough. He's correct on a highschool prospect's floor being not getting out of single A...but that's pretty much the floor of 90% of the players drafted. I think he's way off thinking Harrison's ceiling (best case scenario) is as an above average ML regular. To me that's the likely outcome of a guy with his athletic abilities being allowed to focus on baseball for the first time. The ceiling for him is franchise cornerstone, IMO.

Going to file this tidbit from today's Keith Law chat away, and hopefully beat him over the head with it a few years down the road...interesting in that most of his responses to long-winded chat questions are barely a sentence, but when given the opportunity to get a dig in at the Brewers' F.O. he turns a question about one kid that needs a very specific answer into a discussion on the whole Brewers' draft. also having a hard time understanding how a player who likely has the best set of natural athletic tools in the whole draft has a ceiling of being just above average - I wonder what his answer would've been had the Red Sox drafted Harrison. Tony (Alabama) What do you see the ceiling as for Monte Harrison? Klaw (1:34 PM) Above-average regular in RF. Floor is that he never gets out of A-ball, though. The Brewers took too many of those kids in this draft, and not enough probability for me.

what the heck is he supposed to say? "Meh, we'll probably just regress to the mean and won't be contending by mid-August, so I'm going to watch Packers training camp practices instead"? Far as I can tell an owner of a team is ALL IN constantly...after all, he does own the team.

sort of related, but what's the current word on the health of both Gorzelanny and Henderson? Can we expect one or both to be back in the bullpen by the AS break? I think you put Estrada in the pen and give Fiers a handful of starts between now and mid July. If Thornburg's injury isn't serious and he's able to have a relatively short DL stint, maybe you get him stretched out in the minors to come back starting games. If injuries don't keep these guys out of Milwaukee, use the 3-4 Fiers starts as a showcase and possibly trade him for bench help...I don't think Estrada would be worth much more than Fiers at this point, anyway. If Nelson continues to stay healthy and dominate in AAA, he needs to become part of the MLB equation, too. I think that when an organization's best prospects show they are ready to make an impact at the MLB level, they need to be called up. Nelson's in his mid-20's and has little/nothing left to prove pitching in the minor leagues. I think it's time. This is often the time period when minor pitching injuries start popping up that can be mended with short DL stints or skipping a start here and there...with the amount of options currently available, I'm hoping the Brewers are smart about giving some of these arms needed rest between now and the AS break - doing so should pay dividends come August/September.

very likely that him starting to walk more batters is directly correlated to him realizing that when he throws strikes, he gives up alot of HR. Estrada's effective by deception - when his stuff stops being deceiving and hitters lay off his changeup and force him to get them out with strikes, he's been getting shelled.

Mr. Nelson, I believe your table is ready

What many believed to be the best team in the AL before the season started has become a complete pile of flaming garbage. The pitching injuries and other injuries obviously hurt them tremendously, but they've completely cratered. They can't hit for power, their bullpen is a suckfest, and their starting pitching has been decimated by injuries. Other than that, I guess they're alright. Joe Madden might be looking around wondering if there are greener pastures in different MLB dugouts right about now. I've been watching Jake O as he's gotten his first extended look at facing big league hitters this season, too...not going very well so far, although his K rate is quite good. Pitch counts and working much past the 5th inning in games has been a big problem for him, though. If the Rays don't have a fantastic next 4 weeks, and everything indicates they're not turning this sinking ship around, they do have some good players to shop by the trade deadline. Their minor league system has lost quite a bit of luster in recent years, and their management may be looking to try and add some pieces via trade. Price will probably command too much, but it depends how many are actively trying to acquire him. Zobrist would be a nice player that could significantly upgrade the flexibility of the Brewers roster, and I've always rooted for him since playing him in college a few times.

Seniors have little/no leverage in bonus negotiations compared to high schoolers or college juniors...if they actually want to be professional baseball players, they sign a deal and get into a minor league system right away. At their age, if they dawdle around trying to play hardball, there are plenty of younger and likely more talented options ready to take their place.

If the Marcum trade doesn't happen when it did, Greinke probably never becomes a Brewer, and Fielder may get traded that offseason, too. Had the Brewers not filled multiple slots in their starting rotation, that team doesn't come close to the playoffs. People forget that Greinke missed the first month of that season because he got injured playing basketball, IIRC. Marcum was essentially a 1.1 WHIP starting pitcher through August in 2011. As much as his late and postseason struggles were magnified, the Brewers don't win the division in 2011 without him - simple as that. the way the Cards had to grab the wild card on the last day of the season, there's no guarantee a Marcum-less Brewer team makes the playoffs at all. In retrospect, the Lawrie/Marcum trade worked out well for the Brewers. Right now it's tough to argue otherwise.

Lawrie's having a 2TO type season...strike out or hit a bomb. Until he corrects the swing and miss in his game a bit more and develops into a hitter that can draw walks, he'll never reach the potential he obviously has as a hitter. Immense talent that hasn't been fully developed into a polished hitter...at least yet. The HR he hit a few games ago against the Cardinals to center/right center was just an absolute rocket - seemed like it was still going up with it crashed off the seats out there.

Gameday once again is marvelously behind...what the heck is going on? I see 1 out 2 outs, back to 1 out, 2 outs again...all while it shows Ike Davis walking???

I wonder what it will take to get Keith Law on side. who cares? Honestly I think many on this board are perfectly ok with him never being "on side". He's spent multiple years griping about the Brewers drafting "safe" and not going after kids with bigger upsides. The Brewers went with nothing but kids with bigger upsides early this year and he still doesn't like it. And of course he thought Boston had a great draft...his post draft analysis/reaction template is pretty much "Boston had a great draft here in (insert year)". and I guess I'm still confused why an 18-yr old high schooler with a mid-90's fastball that moves everywhere and a plus slider/developing changeup would be viewed by anyone as a reliever only at this point, regardless of what his arm slot is. maybe that's Law-speak to justify a reason to criticize Brewers management for picking him. Jim Bowden had all 3 of the Brewers top picks rated in the top 25 of the whole draft on his board, and it's looking like a good plan to pick someone they liked at 12 who would take an underslot bonus and follow up by picking guys at 41 and 50 they could overslot who were there simply because of signability concerns. Had they picked someone else at 12 that would command slot or even overslot money, picks 41 and 50 wouldn't have been nearly as exciting, I guarantee you that.

Really confused by the Cubs draft so far...are they actually that budget-strained by the Wrigley renovation/rooftop fiasco and the big bonus they had to pay Bryant last draft? Really thought they'd go over slot with their 2nd round pick and then they drafted a college senior You always hear their management poo-poo any speculation about limited financial resources delaying their rebuilding plan...but sometimes where there's smoke you have to wonder. ...and then I just read that Sands is likely an overslot high school arm, so I guess I gotta do some more homework!

well, they wasted no time in diving into the ranks of the very signable college arms.

I'll begrudgingly give Law props on his mock having the Brewers selecting Modeiros with the 12th pick...but how he framed it in his predraft chat and in his "analysis" says alot about his disdain for the Brewer F.O. From what I can tell the two things that make Modeiros a 'reach' pick at 12 are his arm slot and limited exposure being from Hawaii. I know team workouts aren't the end-all be all and the Brewers have a well-documented track record of falling in love with the wrong guys during them, but if Modeiros truly hit 97 on the gun and everything moves as much as some of his showcase highlights showed (catchers hoping to get drafted or sign D1 scholarships were having problems just catching the ball at times), it'd be hard not to notice. Seems like many of the other MLB draftnicks that don't get ESPN paychecks were quite high on Modeiros, some basically saying he was just a tick below Aiken as a LHP due to Aiken's prototypical frame and delivery - with actual stuff being a wash between the two. I can also see the Brewers F.O. looking at their bonus pool money, not necessarily wanting to go over slot at 12 for any one particular player in the pool of talent available there, and opting to draft a slight risk with upside that would sign under slot and free them up to go after best available on their board for picks #41 and #50.

For Harrison, the $500K extra isn't what he'd base his decision on - it's whether he starts his professional baseball career now or if the injury risk of playing football for a big time program is worth it to have a blast in college for 3 seasons and likely get drafted much higher in future MLB draft. I think he knows his best sport is baseball, and I'm optimistic the Brewers find a way to sign him.

Harrison probably could turn down $2 million because he'd project as an NFL receiver, or a top 5 MLB draft pick in 3 seasons if his bat develops to match anything close to the rest of his baseball tools. If the Brewers can get him signed along with Gatewood it's a major coup to get two 18-yr old position player prospects with their kind of ceilings in the organization during the same draft.

Have to think the Brewers have an under slot agreement in place with Modeiro now, both Gatewood and even moreso Harrison are going to be tougher signs where they were drafted...but, if the Brewers can pull this off AND potentially get Lara in the fold about 1 month from now, it's very likely that their farm system won't be ranked at the bottom of the league anymore - especially with what some of the lower level prospects are currently doing with the Brewers. Exciting night full of draft picks with potential...and likely following a draft night plan that appears to have worked out very well

This is why some guys who generate prospect lists and MLB mock drafts like KLaw grind my gears...they obviously have favorite organizations/gm's/scouts who they prefer to get information from, and those organizations get positive spin directed towards them, while organizations they have poor or no relationships with get pounded. So Klaw is slamming the Brewers' brass based on a hypothetical selection Klaw himself made for them in a mock draft...It'll be interesting to read the positive spin he'll put on whatever team picks him that he does like at #16 or so! The MLB draft is such a crapshoot with an impossibly large talent pool at drastically different stages of development - variables like signability and level of competition play huge roles on where players get picked once you're outside even the top 5 picks. Mock drafts are made for webpage clicks...you get an idea of the top few dozen players who could go in the 1st round, and that's about as useful as they get.

The disaster of the 2009 draft coupled with the 1st round Covey debacle in 2010 is why this farm system is so poorly regarded...losing out on Trout sucks, but they still had a pile of picks early in 2009 and pretty much missed on all of them. Then having a top 15 pick not sign due to diabetes for the 2010 draft stung even more. I think the Covey 1st round issue drove the decision in 2011 to draft college pitchers instead of high schoolers at similar spots in round 1. Jungman and Bradley may turn out to be MLB-caliber pitchers, but star power was missed. The results for the 2013 draft (without a true 1st round pick, mind you) so far are promising, although it's obviously too soon to know. The 2012 draft is actually looking pretty decent, too. The minor league prospect void created by the 2009 draft and the trades shortly thereafter to acquire the impact MLB pitching that wins teams championships is why the farm system has been poorly regarded recently. Maybe I'm too much of an optimist, but it seems like that perception is turning around a bit, and a solid day 1 of the 2014 draft could really bolster that. Hitting on an occasional Corey Hart (mid-late round obscure pick a scouting staff unearths that develops into a MLB regular) a bit more often sure would be nice, too.

Paul Molitor, Prince Fielder, Richie Sexson, Jorge De La Rosa, Matt LaPorta, Ben Sheets among others are fine examples of players the Brewers either let go prematurely or at precisely the right point. Molitor and De La Rosa made this off the top of my head list as players the Brewers let go prematurely...be it for financial reasons or just giving up on a talented lefthander who's had a pretty good career since leaving the Brewers. Fielder, Sexson, LaPorta, and Sheets made this list because IMO they were let go at exactly the perfect time in their Brewer careers. The Brewers got the prime years of a homegrown slugger in Fielder, made the playoffs twice, and didn't overpay to keep him around during his decline which is well underway right now. Sexson was traded for a boatload of players who helped turn the culture around in Milwaukee before the homegrown prospects were ready. LaPorta was traded at his highest value to bring in C.C. and get the Brewers a playoff berth. The Brewers got the best years out of Sheets at a great price (although I'll always regret them pushing 230+ IP out of him when they were godawful as a team, only to see him break down once they started contending), and didn't try to resign him in free agency. I'm sure there are better examples on both ends that show roster management can't be judged by absolutes...yes the Brewers have seemingly kept some aging veterans or scrap heap guys around longer than they probably should have, but that's the case for pretty much every organization - especially when viewed by their own fanbase who always think there are better options available between the minor leagues, FA, or hypothetical trade scenarios that typically are unrealistic 90% of the time.

Molitor made my list as a guy whom the Brewers let go prematurely...