Fear The Chorizo

I think the Dodgers have a pretty good shot at being this year's version of the 2012 Marlins. They have alot of talent, but they also have talent with question marks and injury problems. They could end up being incredibly disappointing if a few key guys don't have great seasons, including Greinke

Cigarettes, chewing tobacco, and alchohol have been proven to cause long term health problems - people that justify banning PEDs from sports for the health of the kids are a bit shortsighted when our society as a whole has no problem with nonstop advertising and marketing for these legal substances. PEDs are more scrutinized in baseball because IMO it's the one major sport where individual statistics carry significance. Nobody cares about individual football or basketball statistics for players. If baseball as a whole continues to view individual player statistics as a way of judging the all time greats, then by all means PEDs need to be kept from the game. Then again, if you'd ask an old timer I bet they'd also think lasik eye surgery, Tommy John surgery, and many of the advanced training room treatments are versions of performance enhancing things in their own right.

here here! My early season whipping boy is whoever plays 1B while Hart is out, because 90% of posters will have someone else in mind that would obviously be a much better option. Top candidate for a season-long whipping boy is the pitcher who starts the season's 2nd game (probably Estrada). He will technically be our #2, but he's unlikely to put up pitching statistics warranting that label. Darkhorse candidate is Kyle Lohse - even if he never throws a pitch for the Brewers, the threat of him signing and costing the Brewers a draft pick is reason alone to warrant "whipping boy" HOF status on this board.

Record 86-76 (2nd wildcard) Division 2nd (Reds win) All stars - Braun, Weeks, Gallardo Surprises - Narveson, Gomez, Axford Disappointments - 1B (Hart and everyone replacing him), Fiers World series - flip a coin (Al) vs flip a coin (NL) The Reds are the class of the NL central, but they have warts. The Cardinals arguably have more question marks with their rotation than the Brewers currently do with Carpenter out and other injury question marks with Garcia and Miller. Not having the Astros around to beat on for 17ish games and facing decent Cub pitching will make things more difficult to pad win totals within the division, though. I see some of the young Brewer starters solidifying the rotation, and there's enough rotation depth and flexibility to keep the bullpen from burning out. Offense will be solid, and overall this will be a very entertaining season for the Brewers.

I criticize them for never doing anything that may look towards the future, instead making every decision based on making "right now" a little better. Trying to figure out how trading Greinke at the deadline last year isn't looking towards the future. Frankly giving a group of young arms their chance to earn long term big league roster spots this spring training instead of paying 12 million a year for Kyle Lohse is looking to the future too. Tough to deal in absolutes. The only two prospects Melvin traded away in recent years that could develop into quality big leaguers are Lawrie and Odorizzi, neither being sure things. If he doesn't make those two trades, we're talking about how this team hasn't made the playoffs since 2008. Viewing the MLB roster as a pile of trading chips to pick up prospects is looking at how to build an organization entirely the wrong way, especially when there's no depth in the high minors ready to replace the big leaguers. That would lead to starting arby clocks on guys too soon, and forcing the team to trade/release more of their best players during their prime seasons instead of at the start of their decline. The minor league system goal has to be to improve the big league team. I agree that the Brewers need to improve talent and depth throughout their minor league system in order to achieve that goal consistently, but that doesn't mean having to blow the big league club up to get as many minor leaguers as possible. There's always room to question a baseball GM's roster and organization management - overall I think Melvin has done a good job with the hand he's dealt working in baseball's smallest market, knowing some personnel decisions have to be made to maximize revenues for them to remain competitive.

That leaves Narveson, Rogers, and Thornburg for the last spot. And there's your #5 starter. Thornburg starts in AAA and is the "next man up" if injury or ineffectiveness plagues the rotation. Rogers and Narveson battle it out in spring training for the opening day spot, but neither of them can be counted on to give a full season of start innings. #5's typically pitch around 170-180 innings if I'm not mistaken. I'd rather start the season with Rogers in the rotation and Narveson in long relief, but I'm fine the other way around, too. The advantage the Brewers have in this year's rotation is they don't have #4-#5 starters making 10 million dollars this season, ala Randy Wolf or Suppan. They seem to have a handful of younger pitchers that can fit into that role, and it will be easier to make personnel changes if some struggle. They have options that don't include overpaying veteran starters to eat innings, which I like. To get quality starting pitching, teams need to pay through the nose to get true aces. The Brewers aren't a team that should be dedicating 10% of their payroll for a #4 or #5 starting pitcher.

While contracts for the marquee players are going to continue going up with rising revenues, I think the emphasis leage-wide on developing young talent from within and trying to avoid longterm contracts to aging veterans is going to actually lower team payrolls overall. The steroids era did more to prolong the careers of veteran players than anything, and now teams like the Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, and Red Sox have recently struggled to correct their inflated payrolls. The Brewers are actually in decent financial shape moving forward - they obviously need some of their young pitching to stick at the major league level, and 2 years from now I think their minor league system will look much better than it currently does as some of their young talent develops.

I've been a Braun defender, but I'd actually want them to provide everything they have to MLB. The New Times didn't include Braun in their initial report, and I think they absolutely would have if there was enough evidence to link him to PEDs in the clinic records/Bosch documents. Also, if there is damning information out there on Braun and he's been lying this whole time, I want to know. I want MLB to be able to do a full investigation and will live with the results of it - I think the worst scenario for both fans and Braun's public image is for MLB not to get all the documents and have the cloud of a stalled investigation hanging over Braun's head indefinitely.

ESPN is notorious for citing unnamed "sources", or "reports" without actually citing specific individuals or media outlets - that way it appears like they're breaking news when all they're actually doing is regurgitating information that was already published or known. They just happen to have the biggest bandwidth to bomb information out. Happens all the time with their NFL/NBA/MLB "insiders" who pull stuff off twitter accounts and websites of reporters working for different companies that actually scoop new information. Outside the Lines appears to operate the same way. The Gio Gonzalez "source" might be a new development, but not making it public calls into question who the source actually is and why they would only have information on 1 of the dozen or so players named. And as Ennder said, there were plenty of 'sources' during the Braun appeal process (that was supposed to be confidential but obviously wasn't) that indicated Braun's team was able to present a powerful argument to discredit the sample result, but media outlets who already wrote articles bashing Braun for being a PED cheat before the appeal hearing didn't have the stones to present information that was favorable to Braun. There were probably "sources" that Braun's team instructed not to speak with the ESPN's and Yahoo "media" outlets, because of how they were protraying him during the appeal process.

And in mentioning Gio (and ONLY Gio), are we to believe that the Biogenesis sources are not giving a pass to the others on the list (including Braun)? Since new stuff surfaces publicly every 2-3 days, tough to say for sure who they're not giving a pass at this point. Have to keep in mind the "media" outlets that are continually writing about this investigation and new information aren't the ones who initially got all the records, researched them, and wrote the one story that doesn't include speculation. For all we know 3 days from now another story will surface that claims another 2-3 players previously mentioned have nothing to do with PEDs. In reality, none of the information ESPN, Yahoo, etc have been writing about since the Miami New Times piece is new, it's just info the people who have looked at all the records didn't include in the initial story. More speculation from me, but that's my takeaway from the latest news. Might as well keep speculating, because that's all the latest reports have been doing since the Miami New Times article.

also looking like as each day passes, the list of players being named in these records is growing - yet little to no details about how these players are connected to Bosch, or Biogenesis...turning into the complete witch hunt of shoot first, aim later that I figured it was going to be once media outlets with agendas started getting their hands on bits and pieces of documents. When is the story going to get written that clinics similar to Biogenesis provide LEGAL supplements to professional athletes in all of the sports? The list is going to be so watered down with players who haven't violated any testing policy that the investigation is going to result in no suspensions or discipline of any kind. The media will blame MLB for not busting anyone, but the media will be the actual culprit.

While that certainly sucks for Gamel and I do feel bad for the guy, I hope the Brewers do the right thing at the end of the season and cut ties with him, if not sooner. Can't see him as a corner outfielder after continued knee problems, as a 3B he can't play there defensively, and as a 1B he won't put up good enough offensive numbers to play everyday. The brewers should make sure all his medical bills are taken care of and then wish him the best. Remember that second wave of talented Brewer prospects knocking down the big league door in 2008? That sure fizzled. Of that whole group, I think the best to expect of any of them is replacement level-caliber production, with the exception of Escobar if he improves offensively. I hope Gamel finds a way to get another shot at a big league career, but it's very hard seeing that happen as a Brewer. Even had he stayed healthy, I think he would've been hardpressed to get PT once Hart made his way back into the lineup.

Whether people believe Braun's story or not, the more his name shows up in Bosch's paperwork the harder it is not to be skeptical. Having what appears to be a dollar amount in line with other players on these lists that were more directly linked to PEDs in the initial report is a big red flag, at least to me. I find it interesting that the same ESPN article mentions one of Braun's attorneys that weren't part of his appeal threatening legal action on ESPN if this report aired. For them to go ahead and air it more or less tells him to put his money where his mouth is. If Braun isn't telling the truth, things are going to start unraveling for him as media keep digging. I hope MLB does its due diligence and issues suspensions as they deem appropriate. Would any suspensions levied by MLB from this story be subject to the same appeals process (under assumed confidentiality) as per their testing policy? It's been eerily quiet regarding some of the players more directly linked to PEDs in this story - wouldn't surprise me if there has already been a round of suspensions issued with appeals looming. Based on how this story has unfolded, I don't see Braun getting suspended. Had his name been part of the initial story that apparently included players with direct PED links in Bosch's records, I think he would be facing another suspension. He may not plan on answering any questions about this investigation, but he's not going to be able to avoid being asked those questions - refusing to address them directly will just make things worse publicly.

In essence we're talking about 4 pitchers competing over 3 rotation and 1 bullpen spots. Narveson, Rogers, Peralta, and Fiers. At this point Thornburg starts the season in AAA and is ready as an injury/performance replacement if some of them fall flat on their faces. Barring injury, I think Fiers and Peralta are rotation locks. They need to at least have every opportunity to prove they belong there. That leaves Narveson and Rogers - barring injury both end up on the big league staff, one as the #5 starter and one in the bullpen. Narveson would make a good long reliever, and while Rogers' stuff is better suited for late innings, he could also fill the long relief role. I fully expect both Narveson and Rogers to get plenty of starts this season due to how much the Brewers are relying on young and relatively unproven starters aside from Gallardo and Estrada.

Maybe he needs to be impassioned like Rafael Palmeiro and point his finger at Congress while denying it - oh wait, that was a lie. If Braun really is a PED user, it will become public knowledge before he retires, either through a future suspension or from people in the know squealing on him. He's too big a name to not have somebody provide evidence he used that knows about it - Roger Clemens and Arod can attest to this. I'm actually happy Braun isn't making the rounds on the airwaves and talking to anyone with a microphone about why he's innocent - seems like athletes who feel inclined to do so always end up being liars. What kind of discipline (legally or otherwise) would Braun face if he waits until he retires before trying to tell his full account of these events (via interviews or in a book)? MLB wouldn't be able to suspend him from playing for breaching confidentiality, and if Braun is being truthful what sort of legal risks would he be taking by making his story public?

then again, posting anything on a message board is a waste of time, so we're all idiots

Actually, if MLB doesn't suspend Braun it's fine with me and it indicates he cooperated with their investigation and is telling the truth. Likely that MLB is looking out for their own PR interests much more than an individual player's. MLB won't do him any favors in the press, they've already proven that. If there are any ties between Bosch and Braun's appeal process that are backed up by a paper trail Braun's team gives MLB, MLB will continue to keep it confidential - whether Bosch was directly used during the actual appeal or not.

But your arguement really has no basis in reality either. Braun has not shown any evidence he really used Bosch for consultation. Until I see any real evidence I will assume that money was for PED's. He will have to prove his innocence before I believe anything he's saying. Talk is cheap. So is having your name written on a notepad being considered hard evidence of PED use. But, that's where we're at, apparently

Great point. I know it isn't like picking up prescriptions from Walgreens, but when the players linked to PEDs by the story have a single cost for what they owed by their names (and often a description of what PEDs it was for in other records), why wouldn't there be a similar detail for Braun, who apparently owed a ton more than the other players? Having a payment dispute of $10K over purchase of PEDs probably isn't something a professional athlete wants when working with a drug dealer.

But seriously, the theory that Bosch may have been the leak is especially intriguing... Honestly with everything that's happened I could see Braun being guilty or innocent, but I'm kind of leaning toward innocent at this point. IIRC, ESPN was the outlet that broke Braun's positive test after the currently unknown source tipped them on it. TJ Quinn knows who that source is. Funny how ESPN was among the last sports news outlets that picked up the recent developments on Braun's name in Bosch's records after it was everywhere in the media, and TJ Quinn has been very hesitant to even paint a link between Braun & PEDs from Bosch/Biogenesis. There are alot of signs pointing to Bosch being that unknown source right now if you look at the history of the whole story: - MLB emphatically denied the leak of Braun's failed test coming from them - Braun's team indicating it likely came from one of the consultants they used when preparing for the hearing - Braun's statement indicating a payment dispute for Bosch's consulting services during his appeal - Braun's lead attorney indicating Bosch's contributions were "negligible" with the appeal - Braun and one of his other attorneys having their names in these clinic notes/records, without direct links to PEDs - The paper who broke this story not including Braun's name initially because they couldn't link him directly to PEDs with the full set of documents they reviewed to write the story. The other ironic thing about Braun's statement is that he's the only player on Bosch's list that has openly acknowledged a relationship with Bosch and provided a reasonable explanation why his name shows up in Bosch's ledger. All the other players listed are in total deny mode or have shied away completely from making statements. If Braun needed to make up a story, I would think he would have conjured up something that distances himself from Bosch. He knows he's inviting everyone to try and look into this story further - not something I'd want if I'm trying to hide from the truth, especially when I'd have no idea what sort of evidence there may or may not be out there.

So, players like ARod, Melky Cabrera, Cruz, and Gio Gonzalez are on this list of money owed to Bosch at amounts much smaller than Braun's 20-30K - they are the ones that Bosch had records of their PED regimens in his notes, not Braun. If Bosch's notes were detailed enough to show the regimens to these players who owed him a little $, why didn't he have a similar record for Braun, who apparently owed him significantly more?

good point. Not saying there's anything for certain in this situation. I keep going back to the paper who broke the original story - they included names of players who both admitted use previously (Arod, Melky) and didn't (Nelson Cruz, Gio Gonzalez) in their initial report that linked all of them to PED regimens from the clinic. Braun's name wasn't in that story, and one would think the reporters who researched clinic records looked through everything they had to link him the same way so they could add his name to the list. The statement Braun made is either a well-crafted lie that is sure to fall apart once enough people start digging, or complete truth that will clear his name but not his reputation in the court of public opinion.

A full cycle of anabolic steroids can be priced out around $500 for 10-12 weeks. I'm sure designer PED's cost more, but 20K would buy Braun about 8 years' worth of steroids if he restarted cycles with no breaks in between. That's not how PED's are used, however. $20-30K in PED's is what people who deal them to a bunch of customers have onhand, not individuals using them. Put it this way, how much of the top shelf stuff at a GNC can you buy if you walk in with $20K?

Braun's other lawyer issued a statement indicating Bosch's contributions were "negligible" during the appeal - Assuming Braun is telling the truth, the part of Braun's statement indicating that there was a dispute with what was owed Bosch leading to the 22-30K amount next to his name would lead me to believe that: Braun's team would have paid a lump sum retainer for a consult fee to Bosch (and probably to several other people/organizations as they were gathering information). After determining Bosch wasn't going to be useful, they didn't need his services for the full fee. 22-30K is a pretty big gap in money owed for PED's, but a realistic amount for legal/consulting fees.

This story is going to end up turning into more of a witch hunt than anything else, IMO. The initial names mentioned by the story that were linked to PEDs in their records are the story. Now various other news outlets are hunting for other names and leads to show they can be investigative journalists, too. Doesn't exactly surprise me that players with university of Miami ties are being linked to this clinic since it's in their backyard. This clinic and many others provide other services than PEDs to athletes. Yahoo sports, MLB network, ESPN, etc are proceeding to muddy up the waters on a well researched piece of investigative journalism, and it's going to end up discrediting the entire story to a point that the players more directly linked to PED use won't be punished by MLB. The initial story was extremely detailed and documented. Had Braun been more directly linked to PEDs by clinic records/similar evidence his name would have been right next to Arod's and Cabrera's. The fact that he wasn't indicates to me that Braun's story is believable. Unfortunately for him he's guilty until proven innocent, and he'll need to show the paper trail proving his work with Bosch and the clinic was strictly for consulting fees during his appeal. Or the paper who broke the story may indicate they have more of the clinic's records that they didn't provide to Yahoo Sports which provide a more detailed paper trail of Braun's statement than a notebook kept by Bosch. I'm no legal expert, but would some of these records/documents fall under HIPPA confidentiality laws? Some of these news outlets running with stories based on notebook pads with lists of names may want to lawyer up if that is the case - seems like now they are throwing every athlete's name they see on anything out there in print.