Fear The Chorizo

Hoping that big Wily's complete game shutout last night is a sign of promising things to come from him the rest of this season. Even with as bad a season it's been for the Brewers, the right combination of deadline trades combined with the continued big league establishment/development for Peralta, Segura, Hellweg, etc. could really help brighten the outlook moving forward.

To say the signing of Ramirez the following offseason should have led to the team exceeding its 2011 win total is pretty silly, especially considering that the 2012 Brewers didn't have Prince Fielder like the 2011 team had every day. Plus, the 2011 bullpen outperformed even overly optimistic projections. Much the same bullpen drastically underperformed in 2012, which was probably the biggest reason they didn't seriously contend for the playoffs. In 2011, the Pirates, Astros, and Cubs were very bad teams that the Brewers got to feast on within their division for almost 1/3 of their regular season games - which probably inflated their record by 5 wins compared to NL East and West contenders. The Reds couldn't pitch in 2011, so they scuffled, too. They don't have that luxury anymore, as the Pirates are good, the Cubs are building towards being respectable, and the Astros play in the AL West. logan's talking about how gm's evaluate a roster's talent level based on projections. throw the actual records out the window from one season to the next when trying to predict what future records will be. The 2011 Brewers team wasn't a 96-win team talent-wise, but they exceeded their win projection by having alot of breaks go their way and capitalizing on 3 weak teams in their division. The 2013 Brewers team is what happens when a team drastically underperforms projections - they were a low 80's win projection team going in, but injuries, slow starts from a few key players, and horrible starting pitching have totally buried them.

TLB, should have edited the start of my last post on this thread - after going through that exercise on 2014 payroll obligations, it became apparent to me that they absolutely need to find a way to gain more payroll flexibility via trades this year/offseason, and they need to bite the bullet and go through a few down seasons in order to do so. I started out my post not necessarily thinking it was criminal going into the 2013 season, but I would argue it would be criminal to keep the status quo going into 2014 now that this season is lost and contending next year would rely on even more things to break the Brewers' way than they were hoping for this season. This all was directly a product of going for it in 2011 and then trying to sustain that success by signing Ramirez and Lohse in the following offseasons. Those two players owed all that money were signed AFTER the 2011 season. That's what makes those decisions look even worse now.

Given the overall lack of quality on the roster, that's practically criminal in terms of the GM world. I would argue that it isn't criminal - the problem is there isn't enough cheap talent to fill the rest of the roster out. I did a very crude analysis of 2014 payroll commitments of every MLB organization. The following includes club options, player options, and mutual options, but does not include any arbitration or pre-arby amounts. obviously the actual figures will be different based on some roster decisions, but it gives you the general idea of what each team has to plan to shell out in 2014 assuming none of the contracts are traded off their books. this is what each team is committed to paying in 2014 salary, followed by the number of players it's owed to: Dodgers 180 Million to 14 players Phillies 114 Million to 8 players Angels 112 Million to 10 players Blue Jays 110 Million to 14 players Tigers 108 Million to 6 players Yankees 100 Million to 6 players Red Sox 100 Million to 13 players Giants 95 Million to 11 players Rangers 94 Million to 10 players Nationals 86 Million to 10 players Cardinals 85 Million to 9 players White Sox 80 Million to 8 players Reds 78 Million to 10 players Dbacks 76 Million to 11 players Brewers 75 Million to 9 players Rockies 70 Million to 8 players Indians 62 Million to 7 players Cubs 58 Million to 8 players Mets 54 Million to 5 players Orioles 52 Million to 8 players Royals 51 Million to 7 players Twins 48 Million to 7 players Mariners 46 Million to 4 players Braves 45 Million to 5 players Pirates 41 Million to 7 players Athletics 40 Million to 5 players Padres 30 Million to 6 players Rays 24 Million to 5 players Astros 9 Million to 2 players Marlins 6 Million to 2 players These totals also include dead contracts, where teams are paying salary portions of players traded away. Overall, many teams are in a similar position to the Brewers from a salary commitment standpoint compared to how many players that commitment covers. The problem for the Brewers is there isn't much cheap, pre-arbitration talent in the organization that will make a big impact in the short term, especially compared to other organizations in similar financial shape. That's where I consider the Brewers and White Sox to be almost mirror images of one another moving forward - teams with aspirations to contend in 2013, fell flat on their face, little impact talent in the farm systems, veterans that could be tradeable for value if health and contract issues weren't factors, both having more questions than answers at this point with no clear way out of the wilderness. Other things that stand out include the craziness that new TV money has brought to bigger market clubs, how ridiculously low the Astros and Marlins commitments are compared to the rest of baseball, and how much higher the average payroll in baseball will be once each organization fills out their roster with arbitration and other free agent signings.

from the Cubs' perspective, throw out the players they got in return - they traded Feldman for the slot money for international FA signings this offseason. The new CBA screwed one of Theo's avenues to quickly build the Cubs from scratch with restricting the amount teams could pay for international free agents regularly (Cubs would have been big players for Puig had they not spent most all of their available pool on Soler). The result of this trade is that the Cubs will likely be able to sign two top international free agents this offseason.

it will never happen because pitchers use these stats in contract negotiations, but I think MLB should stop tracking wins, losses, saves, holds, etc in pitching statistics. You don't see anything like that from an offensive statistical standpoint. So much goes into winning/losing a baseball game that's outside a pitcher's control, why pin W-L record to their statline? Maybe take a different approach and track a team's W-L record in games started by certain pitchers.

It's not trades, as others have mentioned most of the players he's traded away wouldn't be improvements over what their current major league roster currently has - it's that the pipeline of young talent capable of being quality big leaguers has run dry due to poor drafts, questionable development, and bad luck. The trades to get postseason berths with major league pitching gutted the top end of the farm system that had no depth to begin with. The move the Brewers need to make is trade veterans that can get them something projectable in return or at a minimum provide salary relief - then bite the bullet for 2014 and go young with their bevy of AAAA players so some of the prospects that have potential to be be good big leaguers have room to keep developing in AA/AAA without burning service time. The Brewers' organization has the stench of having too many marginal veterans hanging around too long, not really contending but taking up payroll and 40-man roster space that a small market team can't have. It's the look of a team whose window closed a season ago but didn't want to admit it and instead went into this season on the fence between contention and rebuilding...not a good place to be. Their American League mirror image? The White Sox.

you can't view that trade in a vacuum though - standing pat that offseason likely meant not having one more shot at a world series with Fielder on the roster. Could he have gotten more for Lawrie had he waited for him to develop or just hold onto him and give him a shot in Milwaukee? Absolutely - but that would also imply that Melvin should have traded Fielder that offseason to maximize his value to the organization instead of going for it in 2011. And, as other posters have pointed out, the longer Lawrie has been in the big leagues, the less valuable he's looking as a player. He's still young and could easily develop into a great player - but it's just as likely he's going to be an average MLB regular that isn't a franchise cornerstone.

Based on plenty of prior occurrences, it's always best to wait at least 24-48 hours after OTL sends out another "BREAKING NEWS" bulletin, because it tends to take that long for the side of the story they don't want reported to make its way out when it comes to this Biogenesis/Braun saga. Hearing from other outlets who have MLB sources saying there's been no decision on issuing suspensions yet, only that MLB is continuing their investigation by interviewing players and they're willing to throw out their frivolous lawsuit against Bosch if he's willing to talk to them. ESPN's breaking news nugget is that MLB is seeking to suspend ARod, Braun, and possibly others? Hasn't that been the case since the Biogenesis story was broke in ARod's case, and ever since Braun's arbitration hearing ended up overturning the 2011 suspension? Sounds like the MLBPA is going to be paying close attention to how far MLB wants to go beyond the collectively-bargained JDA while going after players they so obviously want to suspend. If the list of players Bosch talks about starts growing too much, this whole thing could result in a labor dispute if suspensions start being issued without failed drug tests, with the only proof coming from a fake doctor who's trying to keep himself out of jail and/or endless legal trouble. Specific to Braun's situation, he either used or didn't use drugs that violate MLB's drug program - after all this scrutiny passes, unless we get an admission directly from Braun that he used, or a statement directly from MLB exonerating him, there won't be closure to this story. Unfortunately, I don't think either of these will ever happen regardless of what the truth is, and because of it both MLB's and Braun's reputations are likely to remain sullen.

My look in to trade deal would likely have gone Oakland's Trevor Cahill for Lawrie. That's the value the team should have sought. Ok - so who's to say Melvin didn't inquire about that and was shot down? That goes back to my argument of possible trade scenarios in poster's minds that turn into strawman arguments, because nobody knows what was on the table and what was considered/pursued aside from the moves that were actually completed. So far, Lawrie hasn't exactly profiled to be a perennial allstar, either - more along the lines of a talented prospect that isn't making the most of his tools because he's a headcase. Also, if I remember correctly, Marcum was the 1st pitcher the Brewers traded for during the offseason prior to 2011 when their rotation had more holes than swiss cheese and people were wondering whether Fielder was going to be dealt and Melvin would consider starting a mini-rebuild then. Part of Melvin's trouble with trading prospects for major league pitching in the past is that he was counting on compensatory picks when those pitchers left via free agency. As others have posted, Marcum didn't give them that opportunity to get an extra pick because he got injured. He was by far their best pitcher for the 1st half of the 2011 season, and while the Brewers made the playoffs by 7 games, without his contributions a playoff spot would have been much more dicey.

If the Brewers didn't make the trades they did in 2008 and 2011 to get impact MLB pitching, they don't make the playoffs those two years, and they probably aren't in any better shape as an organization. The problem forever with the Brewers' organization is that they haven't had any quality pitching depth in their minor league system. Great high-ceiling pitching prospects are hardly ever acquired via trade anymore, they're the most valuable thing there is to MLB teams. I'd argue what Melvin got in return for Greinke is about as good as you can get nowadays for a quality MLB arm. You have to draft and develop ace-caliber arms to at least have those potential franchise-builders in the pipeline. The Brewers haven't done that, which is why their MLB pitching staff is in the shape it is now. Matt Moore was a 7th round pick Tampa signed for less than 200K. David Price was one of their many can't-miss, top 5 overall picks signed to a big bonus. Jake O was part of the trade that James Shields netted them. Tampa's built quality pitching depth in their system in many ways (high draft picks, mid-round picks on projectable arms, trades), but hardly ever with a significant free agent signing.

too many "potential" trades are being tossed around like they were all on Melvin's desk to make the call and he opted not too...it's a straw man argument to criticize a GM for hypothetical trade scenarios that weren't completed. Criticize him for the moves that were made and his overall approach to building the organization. The Brewers organization as a whole needs to be better at identifying and developing pitching talent, period. For the most part, the Brewers have swung and missed with many early round draft picks on pitching, they used minor league prospects to acquire major league pitching via trade with a high level of success. Getting hosed on draft pick compensation for losing CC stunk, but they got great return value for trading Greinke last year (2 pitching prospects and Segura) to replenish their farm system after it was gutted prior to the 2011 season. bottom line, they need to hit on some draft picks the next two years in a big way, and they need to acquire some minor league talent by trading pieces off their current big league roster by the deadline.

To me it's not so much having 5 prospects on the top 100 list every year, it's at least having 5-10 prospects sprinkled within the organization that have the talent to develop into top 100-level prospects at all times. Even the best organzations have plenty of failed prospects - it's the nature of baseball. Right now it feels like the Brewers' minor league system is lacking on both a pure talent and a developmental standpoint. It's not like there are tons of extremely raw and talented minor leaguers in their system that only lack good instruction. And it's not like there's a steady stream of middling talent available to hold their own at the major league level after being taught the 'Brewer Way' of playing the game.

Going into this season, I viewed it as a transition year from the 2008-2011 playoff cores to what would make up the everyday roster and pitching staff moving forward. I expected struggles due to the lack of pitching experience/depth/quality, and the transition of young players filling everyday roles. Then both Gamel and Hart got injured, throwing the 1B situation into a tailspin. Ramirez got hurt and set him back a solid month. At the last minute, the Brewers decided to sign Lohse and forfeit their 2013 1st round pick. It felt like instead of ripping the band-aid off and making some tough decisions with the future of this roster, the Brewers took the "safer" approach and signed more veterans to ease the MLB team's decline. In Melvin's defense he almost had to, since there really wasn't anything ready to step in and contribute consistently in their minor league system right now. It's starting to feel like the Houston Astros about 4 seasons ago... More than anything, I think this organization needs some fresh faces, on and off the field. Many of the middling veterans that have filled roles over the past few seasons need to be sent elsewhere if any kind of trade value develops with them. Players like Hart, Weeks, Ramirez, and even Aoki should be dealt if the right deal materializes around the deadline. Veteran bullpen arms that are tradeable for value need to go. I'm advocating for a fire-sale type of trading deadline to add whatever they can to the farm system, something that also takes alot of payroll off the books. Off the field, if the prospects in the minor league system drafted by the current people in the front office don't make strides this season, I think both the scouting department and player development departments need a complete housecleaning. If Melvin's unwilling to do that with his guys, then Melvin probably needs to go as well. I think things have gotten stale with this organization, and a feeling of 'meh' from this fanbase is a horrible thing for the Brewers, because any significant decline in revenues from that fanbase drastically impacts what the team can do financially.

I don't want the Cubs to have any shot at Rondon Isn't it Carlos Rodon, not Rondon? And wasn't he drafted by the Brewers in the 16th round in 2011? Looking back at how that unfolded, the Brewers called him to ask if he'd sign for the slot bonus of 250K in the 4th round and he said no, then drafted him 12 rounds later and were unable to offer a large enough bonus for him to sign. Granted, every other team had at least 15 opportunities to draft the kid and these situations constantly happen with how the MLB draft is structured, but it's a prime example of how being able to identify a projectable arm and take a gamble by offering a few hundred thousand more than slot value for a high schooler may have landed the Brewers' organization one of the best amateur arms in college right now. Keep in mind that in 2011 the Brewers' major league payroll was stretched to the limit, which probably restricted any budget for mid-round draftees well over slot. Hindsight's always 20-20 and I hate playing 'what if', but I'm pretty sure the Brewers' brass wouldn't mind trading both of their top 15 draft picks that year (Jungman and Bradley) for another chance to get Rodon signed back in 2011.

Unfortunately I also like what the Cubs have done realigning the front office and the talent evaluators they have brought in and the Cubs will be able to draft a top of the rotation MLB starter that they so desperately need in 2 weeks. While I agree with your assessment of the improvement the Cubs have made in talent evaluators, it doesn't mean the Cubs are automatically on the verge of adding an ace to their rotation for the next decade with the #2 pick...Mark Prior says hello. They do have better people making decisions on players than when Jim Hendry ran the show (which is much more important longterm than picking high), but that isn't exactly saying much. Jim Hendry took the Cubs minor league system from good to hopeless in very short order. Both the Cardinals and Cubs have more resources to pour into scouting & player development, both stateside and internationally, without impacting the size of their major league payrolls. The Brewers have conducted themselves like a mid-market team at the major league level over the past few seasons, and it's likely that the player development/scouting side has suffered because of it.

I think the role of a MLB team's manager has more to do with how he handles players/relationships around the team than in-game strategy. Evolution of the game has largely taken alot of the managerial pitching decisions away (bullpens with 7th inning, setup, and closer roles doesn't leave much room for pitching change decisions aside from righty/lefty matchups). Fans always complain about batting order when in reality it doesn't make a whole lot of difference where guys hit. Roenicke's philosophy on stealing bases has to do with giving certain players the green light to start games based on pitcher times to the plate and catcher times throwing to 2nd - I think that's better than relying on a pitch-by-pitch series of signs coming from the dugout to the 3rd base coach. At the end of the day, players determine whether teams are successful or not - managers do play a role in keeping their rosters in harmony and putting individuals in positions to succeed. Managers that don't last long tend to have several things in common - management has given them a poor roster to work with and they do a bad job at maintaining clubhouse chemistry.

I think the biggest issue is the Brewers haven't had top-5 draft pick position for a long time. The Rays got their organization off the mat by drafting top 2 or 3 for almost an entire decade - they've been great since at identifying pitching in the draft and via trades. The Pirates system is currently well regarded because they finally started paying the going rate for top-5 draft picks. The Royals built their current roster largely through very high draft choices. The Nationals got two #1 draft picks in a row and lucked into Strasburg and Harper. The Orioles have been drafting high forever and now have a young roster showing those results. Unless you're consistently drafting very high every year, it's tough for a small-mid market team to build a deep farm system full of high-impact talent, especially from a pitching standpoint. The big market teams that normally draft later have the advantage of international scouting and academies to find young talent outside the draft more consistently than the Brewers. They also tend to have much better financed and organized scouting departments in the U.S. that do a better job of identifying players. In a way, Milwaukee's run of decent - good seasons over the past 5-6 years has limited how many high-ceiling prospects they've drafted. That's not the sole reason, I think their scouting department and organizational instruction share the blame, particularly on the pitching front. They've dedicated enough 1st round draft picks over the past 10 seasons to expect some of those arms to have an MLB impact - at this point the closest ones have been Mark Rogers and Jeffress, which is pretty pathetic. But then at the same time arms like Peralta and Burgos are pitching in the majors. As a whole, I think the Brewers minor league system has built some depth on the pitching side, but what they lack are 2-3 high-talent arms with alot of polish. They'd have those arms if some of their recent 1st round picks weren't total flameouts (Covey, Arnett, even Jungman/Bradley if they keep scuffling in A+/AA for their ages) - it goes back to being able to identify the best arm available from a scouting standpoint, having the funds available to sign them, and then having the right people in place to properly develop that pitching prospect.

Right now 3/5 of the Brewer starting rotation are pitchers the Brewers drafted or found in Latin America and developed (Yo, Burgos, Peralta). Estrada was either a minor trade or waiver claim from the Nationals (can't recall exactly). There are a pile of minor league arms in the Brewer system between high A and AAA that have the potential to develop into MLB starting pitchers. Is there a perennial Cy Young candidate among them? In all likelihood no. But, you can see the shift in the minor league system going towards pitching - unfortunately it takes a long time and often a lot of luck finding a true ace to build the type of pitching depth teams like the Rays have. Jake Odorizzi, Jeremy Jeffress, Escobar, and Cain essentially netted the Brewers a playoff berth and Segura, Hellweg, and Pena. Not making that trade to get Greinke, the Brewers don't make the 2011 playoffs before Fielder left via free agency. I'd call that good use of a projectable pitching prospect. I think the biggest challenge for the Brewers' pitching system is to build enough depth to fill their MLB bullpen on a consistent basis. That will greatly help to keep the team's payroll in check and give the Brewers the ability to add veteran talent in areas of need. Just get more arms into the system that have the potential to pitch in the majors - eventually the good ones weed themselves out. No depth in the minors makes the 1st round failures of drafting Covey, Arnett, Rogers, etc all the more glaring.

I disagree that the Brewers haven't tried drafting/acquiring high school impact arms - I think their efforts have been disastrous the times they've tried it, and now they are leery of going after high school arms high in the draft. Nobody had a better arm than Jeffress, and he basically threw away any chance he had at developing into a starter because of minor league drug suspensions. Dylan Covey was a well regarded high school arm the Brewers drafted, then couldn't sign him after the diabetes/health issues popped up. Those are two top 15-top 20 draft picks that were a waste without giving their organization any chance to develop them. Rogers arm issues have been well documented and unfortunate, also. When the Brewers have swung for the fences and picked a high school arm with upside, they've gone down in flames without fail. That said, Jake O is looking like a good pick, and he was the centerpiece that helped get the Brewers Greinke (and eventually Segura, Hellweg, and Pena) for 1.5 years and a playoff birth. That's pretty good value for a sandwich pick. I completely agree that the organization needs to take a long look at the scouting and development staff they have on the pitching side and make some changes (although some of that may have already started happening in the past 1-2 seasons)

I'd love for Melvin or RR to get in front of a camera and call these teams out - tell them to "prove it". I'd love to hear the theories...is Bernie Brewer glassing the catcher signs from atop the slide with binoculars and signaling down to the clubhouse? Is Tony Plush hiding out somewhere inside the CF scoreboard relaying information? My guess is whatever theories they have about sign stealing will make them look like they deserve tin foil hats. If it's the players stealing signs from 2nd or coaches are picking them up from the catcher somehow, it's the opponents fault for being terrible at giving them away. Here's a thought - change them up every once in awhile.

Frankly, this story and more importantly the credibility of this "investigation" died about 2 months ago once the media starting running every direction looking for notebook pages with hand-written names on them. Problem is, nobody told the media. That "interview" was a complete joke and shouldn't have even had an article written about it (much like most of the articles about this story written recently).

PFx1, Waiting another full season to evaluate Segura before approaching him on a contract extension isn't going to drive Segura's price into the stratosphere and it definitely wouldn't drive him & his agent (if he even has one) from the negotiating table. We're not talking about a player about to enter arby here - he's got a few seasons before he's even arby eligible. The security of a contract extension will feel no different for Segura 1-2 seasons from now compared to if the Brewers were to foolishly extend him now. Buying out that many arby years just to buy one free agent season, IMO, is very risky unless we're talking about MVP-caliber players (Longoria, Braun, Trout, Harper, etc.). If Segura sustains himself as a 0.370 hitter with brilliant defense and steals 75 bases a year, I'll eat my words. I think his ability is somewhere between what he did last season and the start of this year - that definitely means he's a solid MLB player, but not one that would warrant a contract extension this early in his career so the team could avoid crazy-high arbitration salaries a few seasons from now.

What's Mike Trout's 2013 salary? 450K? He put up one of the best regular seasons statistically in the last 100 years, and he didn't get a contract extension. Segura's off to a great start, but I need to see a full season of production out of him before shelling out a longterm contract to guy under team control for more than the next handful of seasons. Don't get me wrong, I'm as excited as anyone regarding Segura - why not let things play out a bit more before committing?

Strikeouts aren't that bad, unless they are the result of nearly 1/2 of your plate appearances and the other 1/2 of the appearances contain little/no solid contact. Whether Rickie wants it or not, I think he needs a game or two off. That and his pregame bp sessions should include nothing but sliders on the outer half - he has the look of a hitter who's completely lost and not able to make the adjustment to get him out of this funk right now.