Fear The Chorizo

I guess my outlook is the exact opposite, honestly... Q1 growth stalled because companies imported a ton of stuff end of Q1 to stockpile prior to tariffs taking effect in part due to confusion, but also as a safeguard - even if whatever they stockpiled wouldn't be enough to sustain a longterm trade war without alot of pain stateside. We are now not even 1 month into OMG TARIFFS!!!!!! and China is already foregoing a ton of their imposed tariffs on imports because if the US doesn't totally cave, China's economy implodes if they can't sell their crap elsewhere - not in a couple years, more like months. Factor in the corporate behemoths who rely on China for way.too.much. and all parties involved don't want that sort of implosion to happen overnight. Low level tariffs will get carried through in a deal that still allows for the flow of cheap stuff coming in stateside from the far east, and a smaller can gets kicked further down the road. Deals are gradually being sorted out with friendlier nations to reset the marketplace to a new normal. Meanwhile prices on essentials continue to drop. The market has been gradually coming to terms with the fact that sometimes what the 🍊 man says either isn't exactly what he means or isn't an absolute that things have to shift 100% his way to "make a deal" . That should come as no surprise to anyone who's got a pulse over the past decade, but apparently it still does with far too many. I think now is still a very good time to buy, and it will continue to be, for awhile. When the market tries to play the jump to conclusions game based on what comes out of Washington verbally, or even on a sandwich board in the Rose Garden, it tends to overreact more than a touch.

I honestly think if you don't get an early long term extension with a bonafide stud prearbitration (Chourio, Braun, etc), small market teams are almost always better off trading away players the offseason before they reach free agency...I think at times it's ok to hang onto position players until their free agent year (adames, fielder) and just recoup the comp pick for them declining the option. For really good pitchers, I think it's better to trade them ahead if time to replenish the cupboard (Hader, Devin, Burnes) rather than risking injury that last year. Look at the Dodgers' current IL pitching staff's payroll - the Brewers can't take that financial risk to have a bunch of pricey veteran arms on the roster only to see them cashing checks to be injured. You get those mid to late 20's years of prime production of their arms before moving on from them and having to pay crazy money to watch them get injured or regress. Cortes and Woodruff are among the highest paid Brewers' pitchers....enough said

Yeah, they simply don't - their pitching as constructed is too thin to sustain a team that will be able to win 7 out of every 10 games, regardless of who they are playing. The Cubs could opt to empty a decent farm system to bring in veteran arms and probably will need to at some point, but with how fast pitchers are dropping like flies with the Dodgers there's going to be other huge market teams driving the price of pitching up via trade, too. One thing about their offensive barrage to start the season - Their early season schedule has been incredibly favorable towards games with good hitting conditions. Most of their Wrigley home games in April have been good weather, most with wind howling out - which makes that park a bandbox. And then playing most of April in CA or AZ also limits those 40 degree, misty nights where hitting is no fun. The Brewers have uncharacteristically lost a handful of games they should have won with their own bullpen struggles here and there - that's magnified early in the season standings, because adding those ~3 games in the win column now would have the Brewers equal to the Cubs in 1st.

I think Johnson might still be available tomorrow, too

I see Golden's potential as Amon-Ra St Brown, but with much better speed - I'd take a shot at that 2/3 into the first round in every single draft year.

Golden might resemble a few of the Packers' current stable of wideouts, but he plays more physically and is faster than anyone they have in the room, even with a healthy Watson (if that ever happens again). Not a reach to pick him where he went, and a big need position - hard to fault the pick looking at it from any number of ways.

I think there's a knee concern in there, too - if a corner can't run a 40 at any point leading up to the draft, you can't take him in the 1st round.

This is the player some of us thought he could develop into once he filled out a bit and didn't look like a gust of wind could send him into orbit. It's also the type of player a bunch of draftniks though he could turn into one day when he was considered a potential 1st overall draft pick heading into his senior year in H.S. for a time. He'll never give you 30HR in a season, but man he can give you just about everything else on a baseball field.

Adames was surprised the Brewers never called after he declined the qualifying offer....and after the Brewers approached him about longer term contract extensions an offseason or two earlier that he declined. I mean, what did he expect would happen once he reached free agency and the GM has all but indicated if he got to free agency he most certainly would get more $$ elsewhere? A great guy/great teammate is more than fine in my book to earn a good year to year salary playing through his prime years. A guy past his prime making a ton more guaranteed money for multiple seasons is a franchise-crippling anchor, no matter how great of a teammate he is. That's, quite frankly, what Adames is now that he signed for $182M as a 29 yr old SS showing signs of defensive decline on top of the extended stretches of bad at the plate.

They don't have the pitching - but they'll score alot of runs, especially if the wind blows out of Wrigley more than it blows in.... If all goes right with them, they just might claw up over that 83 win total for a change...and they should considering their payroll is roughly $60M over the Cardinals and ~$75M over the rest of the teams that would be among the threats to win this division. Pittsburgh just isn't there yet.

Wanted to steer some discussion away from the daily "OMG the sky is falling" in the markets and see if I can get any recommendations for dividend ETFs people would recommend looking into to further diversify my mix of investments. I'm in good shape with my 401k/roth retirement account, and now have a healthy rainy day savings account built up to the point where I'll have extra cash month to month to invest elsewhere. I'm at a spot where I'm thinking of using the routine funds that built up my rainy day savings to invest in a low fee ETF that also pays a dividend instead of further increasing how much I'm putting straight into my retirement plan. Anyone have some solid ones they'd recommend? Looking for one that's a good option to continually invest in over time that does pay a decent sized dividend. I've done some research on my own but also looking to see if there's similar ETFs others like to what I'm considering. With the market chaos unfolding it actually feels to me like a good time to dip a toe into this type of investment. thanks in advance!!

Unfortunately for the Cobs, they still have all of their remaining g games against the Brewers left to play a full month into the season

lol, guess that comp pick is starting tonight in Milwaukee for the Brewers!

It's not that I dislike Adames....he seems to be a great guy and good on him for securing a generations-changing contract from someone to play baseball past his prime. I'm just happy it wasn't the Brewers who paid Adames given how the economics in baseball works, and I'm looking forward to the comp pick in this year's draft. He's just off to one of his typical extended cold streaks where he kills the lineup he's in, but good for the Giants to have been finding other ways to win without expecting Adames to carry them.

I'd actually wager quite a bit that won't be the case - i think he'll muddle into obscurity in short order due to middling performance and/or injury and wind up on some other team's AAA squad 2-3 seasons from now. Nothing but my Easter dinner-filled gut to base that on, but I'll stick with it, lol.

They signed the top safety and one of the top RBs to their team last offseason in free agency. Gute signed the Smiths in the same free agent offseason. Despite the current cap room, they do have in-house talent that will need to get paid over the next calendar year if they don't want to have cap issues again in the near future, and some of this year's cap room will get eaten up with extension signing bonuses. Gute has been fine in free agency when both a need and the right players are available to sign. You can't play in that sandbox every offseason as a GM though

Call it anecdotal I guess - an athletic 3B with a wet noodle arm who could run down more pop fly fouls than a statue with a rocket arm probably doesn't create many more outs in a season since foul territory is so small and since most fair pop flies towards left get run down by SSs. The range a guy built for middle infield excels when they're playing ~125 feet plus from the plate compared to ~90-100. There's just not enough time for balls hit towards the gap between third and short for a 3B to move towards the hole to field before it's past them. That's a dive play, and if it's an athletic but short player at third their dive is a range-limiting factor, too. There's a reason 3B has seen players with frames like Arenado, Machado, Mike Schmidt, etc playing there over the decades.

Range just isn't as important at 3rd - if you have to cover alot of ground to get to a ball at 3rd the SS should probably already have gotten to the ball. Arm strength/accuracy is probably equal with reaction time/sure handedness to catch shots at you cleanly for 3B defensive ability. Not having a quality arm over there is forcing a square peg in a round hole for defense, which is something the Brewers shouldn't be doing longterm if they prioritize run prevention to win games

Yeah, I can see Ortiz being the odd man out, too - or packaged with some blocked prospects when another SS is ready in the brewers system

I know the batting average and uneven start to his career is a large red flag, but I still have hope that Wilken is going to be the longterm answer at 3rd (or potentially 1st) in the next couple of years. You've got to give power like that as many chances as possible, and he's sitting in AA with a 0.421 on base percentage despite currently hitting below 0.160. The Brewers also have a wave of IF prospects in the low minors, where one of them could fill that 3B void. Hoping Durbin makes the most of his opportunity at 3B, because he's the type of player that can wreak havoc in a lineup with his speed. He just doesn't have the frame or arm to play an above average defense at 3B. I see him as an ideal utility IF, or potentially as a trade chip to bring in a legit 3B from a team looking for an everyday 2B. If Turang is going to be the Brewers 2B longterm, Durbin is blocked at his best everyday position,

Yeah I don't buy the Packers are the worst drafting team in the NFL....how much of that metric is based on consistently picking towards the end of most rounds? Every team has significant misses - I think the current Packer front office does a great job in the middle rounds finding starting caliber players on both sides of the ball, but where they struggle is drafting a guy at one of the marquee positions in today's NFL (WR, DL/edge rusher, T) early and have it be obvious they hit a HR as soon as that player steps onto the practice field. Frankly, a big part of that issue is the Packers either don't draft those positions in round 1 (WR, T), or they take raw development projects like Gary/LVN who take years to sort out if they're going to make an impact. At some point they need to target obvious holes on their roster in round 1 drafts at positions like OLB or WR, with the expectations that those players turn those existing roster weaknesses into strengths simply by entering the building. The Packers have hit on QBs drafted early - they've only had to attempt doing it twice in the last ~25+ seasons, which is insane, but assuming Love is at minimum an above-average NFL starter you can't question their approach with how they've maintained quality at by far the NFL's most important position compared to pretty much any other team in the league over the same timespan.

He's always going to be slight in build, and the hope is that as Turang fills into his frame he'll hit with a bit more pop - but more importantly be able to get through the grind of a MLB season without wearing down. That definitely happened with him last year. Frelick had similar struggles with staying fresh/strong as the season wore on last year, too. It's part of what made Chourio's 2nd half so impressive to me - for a kid to figure out MLB pitching at 20 and then seemingly not wear down through the dog days of a season is bonkers. With his defensive ability and baserunning, Turang OPS-ing anything over 0.700 makes him a perennial all star. Proof is in the pudding to see if he can maintain this start and carry through the offensive improvement through September.

With the exception being the Chiefs, who have the best quarterback of this generation playing for one of the best coaches ever that leads what is probably considered the best coaching staff in the league, Being among the top 5-10 teams in the NFL consistently is about all you can ask for a GM to give his organization the best shot at winning a Super Bowl. The difference between last season's roster being a playoff participant and it going on a run towards a title is primarily Love taking the next step in his development. The fact the past two seasons led to Packer playoff berths while unraveling the accumulated salary cap purgatory the last few years of the Rodgers era put them in speaks to Gute doing a very good job at replenishing the roster with talent without having to crater their onfield results. I do think the Packers need to do a better job in general at landing instant impact talent at key positions in today's NFL (DL/OLB, WR) in the 1st round instead of having to wait on 2-3 year development of athletic freaks or guys coming off injuries who aren't great NFL players yet. The one criticism I have for Gute is to make better 1st round draft picks that instantly enter the building as a starter - regardless of the organization's veteran depth chart at their position. This Packer defense is better than what they consistently ran out through most of Rodgers' Packer tenure - but they don't have the horses on the line right now for them to take over games. It's on Love to take that next step for the offense, which now has plenty in the backfield and upfront on the line to run the ball. The Packers have got to get more pass rush upfront, and that has to mean new faces in the DL and OLB rooms via the draft along with LVN showing up and Gary rebounding from a disappointing 2024 season.

Pretty decisive 2nd opinion after what was probably an initial undesirable one. Stinks for Steele, as this likely costs him any shot at a mega contract after spending the max number of seasons in the minors and then also in the majors under team control, but then again he's never, ever been able to establish himself as a workhorse starter who would deserve crazy pitching money.

stay 500 miles away from giving that guy any sort of longterm contract...that elbow is probably putting him on the shelf until middle of 2026. He's somehow still in arbitration through the 2027 season, at which time he'll reach free agency heading into his age 32 season. Checks notes, my God he's been in the Cubs organization for 11 years already (minor + major) and still needs to go through 3 more seasons counting this one before he's a free agent.