Fear The Chorizo

Chourio is still younger than a good number of draft prospects who will be picked in this year's draft....and currently OPS-ing around 1.0000 despite an 0-5, 5K Opening Day that accounts for 10% of his at bats so far this year. Truly a generational talent.

Gotcha and makes sense - just the timing of how Smith's career began with the Brewers put them behind the 8 ball. Not saying Smith didn't deserve to be protected and added to the 40 man last fall, but who know what other irons were in the fire at that point that prevented them from doing so.

We will see the longevity of this "mistake"...to me this has alot of the same feel as Phil Bickford winding up on the Dodgers after the Brewers DFA'd him, saw him have success for a bit and then has been with multiple organizations (major and minor leagues) since then trying to hang onto his career. Smith looks to have all the stuff you'd want to see in a pitcher - but he does have the injury history that initially made him an undrafted FA signee by the Brewers just 4 years ago...and the jury is out on his durability due to limited innings pitched while in the Brewers' system over the past few years. I hope he is great and stays healthy - he couldn't have asked for a better team to pick him (one that is terrible and has no intentions of contending) in the Rule V to give him an extended MLB opportunity. I'm sure it was explained late last fall when it was apparent Smith would be Rule 5 eligible - the rule states if sign at 19yrs of age or older and play 4 professional seasons in the minors you are Rule 5 eligible. I know Smith signed in '21 but I don't think he logged any minor league innings that year because he was rehabbing from TJ that he sustained his senior year of college - his minor league stats only span 3 seasons. Shouldn't Smith have still needed to log a fourth minor league season in 2025 before being Rule 5 eligible?

This is a great big game of chicken that won't last very long, and it's one a whole bunch of other countries hope the US caves first to return back to the "status quo" of what the tariffs on US exports were without the US raising tariffs on imports. There's a difference between what Wall Street and Main Street needs to feel like the economy is working for them, and this approach is the first thing in decades that actually puts Main Street's longterm interests ahead of the financial markets - even if it is heavy handed and poorly thought out in places. It's why private sector unions are in favor of this. Also, knowing that roughly $10T (!!!) of the existing national debt has to get refinanced this year, with almost $7T of that amount needing to be refinanced by early this summer, starts making an alterior motive for this kind of heavy handed tariff bluster in the short term pretty obvious. It's forcing a big shift out of capital and into treasuries that otherwise wouldn't have happened. From that, T-Yields have dropped 30 basis points the last couple days - the lower that yield is, the friendlier gov't debt refinancing costs are longterm. With interest rates still elevated over what they've been during the last 20 or so years (thanks Fed for a decade+ of ~zero interest to print all this money!) that most of the current national debt has been accumulated through due to the US government opting to continually spend way more than it makes, it feels like an intentional effort to drive them down a bit. The truth is the global economy needs the US much more than the US needs the rest of the global economy, and the global economy is going to have to at least make some concessions with their own tariff policies to avoid their own economic depressions while the US works through a recession. Of course, the status quo of increased deficits and debt accumulation would be less volatile over the next decade or two than what appears to be the current "plan"....but that approach also eventually reaches a point where the whole system collapses anyways. Leaving things as they are gets the US to a point in about 20 years before a debt default that makes the great depression look like a hiccup across the globe - that's roughly my retirement timeline, so at this point I'm open to any sort of shift in strategy. My gut says this back and forth will continue over the next couple months, resulting in some minor foreign tariff reductions on US goods while many of these recently announced "bad actor" tariffs set way over the 10% baseline get knocked back down - then we get a bunch of "we made a great deal" announcements just as a chunk of this national debt is quietly refinanced at a lower interest rate before money floods back into the markets.

This team will win 95 games with a -50 run differential, lol

I saw alot of that, too - people worried about losing Adames production and then the first solution is to send their best hitter to the minors because he's 21 and had a terrible opening day. That OPS is going to keep climbing, too.

They should just call them bowling pins...that's pretty much what they are. I still think the combination of a comically short porch at Yankee Stadium and atrocious Brewer pitching are far more to blame than a weirdly shaped bat for all the HRs they hit over the weekend. Particularly since Judge isn't using one of these bats. I still say the reasonably simple antidote for these bats designed to do more damage when hitters get a little jammed is to pitch these hitters outside with velocity.

no, it's balance is just different - instead of the end of the bat having most of the weight the trademark area has it, and then the bat tapers back narrower at the end.

I mean, isnt the adjustment to just pitch to the outer half of the strike zone and watch them splinter these bats or not get nearly the loud contact with the weaker ends of these bats out over the plate? Then when the players creep in on the plate you can bust them inside on the hands where they won't be able to barrel the ball either? The story is the putrid start of the season on the Brewers' staff - it's not just the bats.

When teams know an organization won't be able to afford keeping a good player on their team through free agency and may need to trade them to get some form of quality return, I don't really see why they'd be willing to pony up blue chip prospects and great players to acquire them. Devin Williams threw like 40 pitches and barely got out of blowing his 1st save opportunity as a Yankee a couple days ago - I actually don't think he should be viewed as some organization-changing dominant reliever anymore. Stating they should have gotten better players without offering up which other trades the Brewers should have made with specific prospects/players that would be realistic offseason trade scenarios isn't much more than throwing strawmen at people endlessly. The economics of baseball, IMO, actually have me thinking the best value small market teams can gain from their premium talent is to ride them out through their free agent years, don't trade them at all unless at the deadline before they walk if the team is out of it, and pick up the comp draft picks. Then again, you thought the Yelich trade was a terrible move at the time the Brewers made it for giving up all those great prospects to the Marlins, too.

I'd be all for deferred money counting fully towards a team's luxury tax payroll coupled with more significant penalties for staying over it. In other words, Ohtanis contract is counted as $70m annually per luxury tax payroll accounting instead of the 35ish M it currently is and the actual dollars payment of $2m in 2025 to ohtani's bank account. Make the luxury tax a realistic accounting for what's on the field now competing against the rest of the league vs the deferral madness

The Dodgers have an absurd financial advantage over the rest of the MLB at the moment - even including other huge market teams across the league. In the absence of any meaningful change in future collective bargaining agreements to level the playing field in terms of how MLB rosters are constructed (salary cap/floor, adjusting how deferred money in contracts is accounted for, more punitive luxury tax penalties, etc), I was wondering what other options the "have nots" organizations across MLB could offset what the Dodgers can do and actually set them up for an extended period of being stuck in the wilderness when a bunch of these high priced veterans start breaking down.... One thought I had was for the rest of MLB, particularly the small-mid market clubs, to essentially avoid making any sort of trades or transactions with the Dodgers - and force them to make some very tough roster decisions without the benefit of trading away unnecessary veterans or prospects to fill in any of their own roster gaps or refresh their minor league talent pool. The Dodgers have a ridiculous pitching staff who would all need to be added to their 40 man roster currently sitting on the IL - as those arms get healthy there's going to be guys who other organizations would line up to trade for made available. Instead of competing to give the Dodgers the best package available to acquire those guys, other teams could simply force the Dodgers' hand and make them DFA/release them for nothing in return. Same goes for a bunch of their prospects who essentially are MLB-ready but are blocked by guys they are paying for many years down the road....don't allow the Dodgers to trade some of those guys for MLB roster improvements or younger minor league talent from other organizations - instead force them to age out of their system and become rule V draft eligible players. I'm certain the players' union would cry foul if it became obvious the rest of the league was refusing to answer any phone calls from the Dodgers' front office and it would be considered some sort of collusion - but I think over time this sort of strategy could be a pretty effective way to hollow out what is essentially an all star team roster with a deep farm system and who's who of recovering players on IL on top of all that. I think this would be more fun than MLB sitting on strike for a season or two while hammering out sufficient changes to their financial system that prevents this sort of circus from happening again.

Then tell the pitcher not to stand on the entire bag and get his foot on the fair side edge of the bag where it's supposed to be. And practice that play at game speed so he doesn't risk injuring himself. Rodon almost dislocated his ankle on a play like that yesterday on Opening Day and it wouldn't have mattered if there was an orange bag or not. High throws or ones up the line in fair territory would force the 1b to reach further into foul territory to tag a runner flying down the line who then dives towards the farthest corner of an orange bag in foul territory. Throws into foul territory down the line would still lead to 1b/runner collisions even if there were two orange bags extending into foul territory. I think this is a case where adding that bag at the MLB level will limit injuries on certain types of plays only to make injuries for other types of plays more common.

That's the spot to attack if you get your pitch against a guy like Devin - not faulting Turang for getting into that hitters count and then taking a rip at a fastball he knew was coming even if it wasn't middle middle

Chourio's game bat needs to have already gone through a wood chipper Go get 'em saturday!

One of those plays where a second bag makes no difference in the pitcher rolling his ankle

Brewers lead the league as a team in 3B OPS Write that down... lol

Lotta game left

How does mlb allow field dimensions that would make a summer legion team giddy about going yard to happen with new stadium builds?

Supposed to be in the air on flight home, dreaming of checking game score when I land in an hour... Instead stuck on plane while maintenance is fixing "something metal" in the back of the plane before we take off, check score and see a leadoff HR bottom 1. Ish...

Having the bag extension be a different color helps (but doesn't make it obvious) to see if a batted ball hitting the bag is fair or foul I dont know what percentage of injuries at 1b on these plays would actually be prevented by the extra bag...most of the time the pitcher is rolling an ankle clumsily trying to find the bag and/or the runner is intentionally running through the middle of the bag to try and disrupt the play. Extending the bag gives the runner alot more room to reach safely on a throw that pulls 1b off the bag and avoid being tagged out, too - that itself could lead to other injuries for guys reaching back further. I say leave it alone as is and be more aggressive with both runner and fielder interference calls on those plays if you want to promote more safety. Draw a line through the center of the existing bag for which sides fielders/runners need to step on...or do something different with bag materials and metal spikes that really aren't very compatible.

I think a bigger question would be if Contreras would be open to a role where he'd be the primary DH/backup catcher on a roster, enabling him to have a longer career even if it meant devaluing his AAV by not being viewed as an everyday starting catcher. In that scenario, I'd entertain the Brewers giving him a longterm extension. If he wants to play everyday behind the plate then I'd trade him this or next offseason for the best prospect haul you can get. Then again, the Brewers could just play the arbitration game and have Contreras the next 3 seasons before watching him leave in free agency as a 30 yr old catcher who some other team will pay huge dollars to watch him decline....I'd honestly be just fine with that, too.

94-68, NL Central Champs The organization will continue to lean on its ability to get outs with underappreciated pitching depth in front of elite defense and a sneaky good offensive roster that doesn't have to rely on power to score enough runs to consistently be winning 6 out of every 10 games. If Yelich can stay healthy and Chourio takes the next step, there will be plenty of pop despite Adames cashing bigger paychecks out west. If healthy, I expect a breakout year of sorts for Mitchell, too. Until proven otherwise their model is a machine that grinds out more wins than the March sum of its parts always projects.

Cool read....i think another informative article could be written about actual value of contracts based on state/provincial tax hits players take for signing them. Having to pay Canadian taxes on half your games and then also be taxed for playing a good chunk of your road games in NY, Boston, Baltimore eats alot into takehome pay for Blue Jay players. They at least had Fla for one of their division road game states, but now who knows where the Rays will call home lo term after their crappy stadium got wrecked.

All of Chourio's minor league #s occurred while he was a teenager, starting with typical DSL time logged as a 17 yr old. PCA had all of 32 plate appearances in the minors as a teenager in his 1st minor league season right after getting drafted. I'm not saying PCA hasn't put up solid production when you look at counting stats as a minor leaguer - there's a reason he's already in MLB as a 23 yr old player. However, PCA's minor league hitting production shouldn't be compared to Chourio while hinting in any sort of way that PCA might develop into the same type of talent offensively. PCA has been up at MLB long enough where his age has less and less significance with room for hitting improvement at the game's highest level compared to his actual MLB service time logged, while Chourio OPS-d around 0.900 from June through the end of last season at 20 yrs old. And of course I'm a bit biased and want to be quick to react to what I feel is yet another severely overrated Cub prospect - I actually have felt this way about PCA since he initially broke into MLB in late 2023, and that was based on his less than pedestrian batted ball exit velo #s in the minor leagues. He has made some improvements in that department, but his chase rate remains a big problem. PCA's a great outfield defender who will have a good MLB career provided he avoids significant injuries that diminish him defensively - he just won't be able to hit enough to be viewed as a great all-around player.