Fear The Chorizo

Hey...a stop

Would be nice if the team and conference that gets hosed is the SEC one time...particularly after what has proven to be a down year for that conference based on the limited out of conference games they actually allow their best programs to schedule - especially when it's not a reach for 5 teams from other power conferences to be worthy of a CFP spot. I still think OSU is better than several of the teams that got in this year, too - but understand why they werent going to make it based on the other teams' resumes still playing on championship saturday. FSU had two non-home game wins against SEC schools, one while playing without their starting qb. Finishing undefeated should absolutely be a deciding factor that makes Alabama’s resume this season not quite good enough to jump the Noles - especially after it took a miracle play the week prior to avoid them sitting with 2 losses before playing UGA. Had that happened, I guarantee you if Bama beat the bulldogs it would've been UGA in that #4 spot instead of FSU despite them having several key guys injured or shells of themselves, too. That's what stinks about the current format. It's not a 4 team playoff when 1-2 spots are SEC autobids every season no matter what the rest of the country does.

So, apparently the CFP formula every early December Sunday pretty much is: - Alabama, unless they have 2+ losses and there are 3 other undefeated power 5 conference teams....if there aren't, then a 2-loss Alabama can most likely make it in, too - 2nd SEC team, unless there are three other undefeated power 5 conference teams, or it there's a 1 loss non-SEC team that beat Bama head to head + at least 2 other undefeated power 5 conference teams. - Undefeated Big ten team, if there is one - if not take a long look at what resume of the best SEC team that didn't play its conference title game to see if they can squeeze a 3rd SEC team in the CFP. - Undefeated Big 12 or Pac 12 team or undefeated ACC team....or in the event of a 1-loss Big 12 champ who beat Bama needing to be in the CFP with them, pick them + whichever undefeated Pac 12 or ACC team has the healthier starting quarterback. Conference TV contract$, offseason recruiting class rankings, and preseason rankings continue to all hold more sway than onfield results in today's college football landscape do, and it really has soured me on watching the product.

Such a shame...Bama does not deserve to be in this season's CFP, and I don't even care if they wind up winning it all. FSU got hosed - an undefeated power 5 conference champ should always make the playoff over any other conference's 1 loss champ, no matter who it is. TX beat Bama head to head, so they deserve to be in over Bama. That should have left Bama out no matter what if there's four spots to fill.

I believe Ohio states 3 losses over the past two years were to undefeated MI twice and UGA in last year's semifinal - which was a game they were going to win until Harrison JR got knocked out. They absolutely have the resume to be ahead of Bama and Georgia, but it's definitely a close call. The SEC teams at the top of that conference aren't as dominant as they were in previous seasons, largely due to great players leaving for the NFL. Between Bama and uga, they played one decent out of conference team on their schedules - and that was TX beating Bama in Tuscaloosa. At some point the schedule manipulation the SEC does to prop up their best programs has to come back and bite them when there are other deserving teams. All that being said, that's a discussion they shouldn't even need to have with TX and FSU also deserving to be in the top 4. FSU's defense is what can carry that team, and at least their primary backup qb should be healthy for the playoff.

Honestly, OSU should have a better case for making the CFP than either of UGA or Bama. 1 close road loss in the last game of their season to what will be the top ranked team? Also, I get that their qb is out with an injury, but FSU dominated LSU early in the season too. An undefeated power conference champ has never been left out of the playoff, and that shouldnt start this year just because the SEC would be on the outside looking in.

My dream Championship Saturday includes TX and Mich rolling to wins, FSU finding a way to win and stay unbeaten, and then Bama finding a way to eke out a win against UGA in an ugly game. Then, hope the committee has some stones and leaves the SEC out of the CFP altogether based on the fact Bama got beat at home by Texas and having 3 other undefeated and deserving power 5 conference Champs. UGA's 2023 resume does not look like a deserving 1 loss CFP team compared to undefeated FSU or 1 loss TX. The realist in me is if these scenarios happen the committee will put both Bama and UGA in the playoff and shaft both FSU and Texas.

Just read the names of the players listed in this post...I'd be just fine with chourio replicating any of their careers, to be honest!

Can see the points in all of this, but then what happens if Chourio instead got stashed in AAA for at least part of this season or any sort of extension doesn't get signed in his 1st season or two in MLB with more of a "wait and see" approach? Suddenly that contract approaches the Mariner's Rodriguez territory or something the Brewers aren't able to afford, or Chourio opts to go the Soto route and take things through arbitration - and then the Brewers are already trying to weigh if/when the right time to try and deal Chourio away is to maximize return on a player they won't be able to even sign to a longterm extension before he reaches his prime years of production? By year 9 in this deal, $30 AAV could easily be the going rate for an above average veteran outfielder, so those options will look friendlier the closer the Brewers get to deciding whether or not to exercise them. Same goes for comparing arby salaries/contract extension amounts to players like Soto/Franco/Acuna that will have occurred 5-8 years earlier than when Chourio's increasing salaries start hitting - I think the $80M 8-yr base contract actually has a chance to save the Brewers quite a bit with Chourio in what would've been hypothetical arbitration salaries years down the road, plus that initial free agent year.

Still seems as though it's LAD or Toronto for Ohtani based on the rumor mill, despite the Cubs making an offer. If LAD makes an offer in the same realm as whatever the Cubs gave, tough to see him leaving LA since he's already established roots in that market with the Angels on the west coast. I don't know why anyone would want to play in Toronto and have such a huge chunk of their salary go to Toronto/provincial income taxes, either - which are much higher than either CA or IL. Who knows? Maybe the Cubs' offer is as insane as the one they gave Counsell to manage them. Ohtani is, at this stage in his career (29 yrs old), a generational talent deserving of a mountain of $$ - but I don't think he's going to be a pitcher/DH longterm, he'll need to pick one of those options as he ages and stick with it to prolong his career. That will wind up looking bad on whatever team's payroll he's on in his mid 30s making $50M a season to be their DH in a couple years

Those are the type of position moves to keep impact bats in the lineup who struggle at their primary defensive positions...Wiemer's best value at present is elite OF defense, so moving him to a corner IF position that requires no arm strength and can be played by the least athletic person on a roster isn't doing him any favors when his sole focus should be improving his hitting approach and not having to learn to play a new position. From what I can tell, Wiemer has zero IF experience dating back to his college days at Cincy. I think a guy like Wilken moving to 1B in the next season or two could make some sense if he doesn't stick at 3rd (or if Black actually does stick at 3rd). With the volume of prospects working their way up through the Brewers' system that actually profile as MLB-caliber players, we are going to need to get used to seeing a good number of them traded away to improve the MLB roster at thinner positions - to me that's a better approach than trying to move prospects/young talent from a deep position group to a hole on the MLB roster.

Didn't mention Frelick in my previous thread post, because I like his hit tool in the lineup and think the Brewers value him more than Wiemer at present....but IF the Brewers feel like Wiemer can sort himself out offensively he'd carry a much higher ceiling as a RF with that defense/power toolset than Frelick longterm and I'd be ok with dealing Frelick at a time when it very much wouldn't be selling low on him, either.

If reports are correct that Chourio is slated to be their CF starter, then I really do think one of Mitchell or Wiemer is getting dealt this offseason as part of a trade to improve the roster elsewhere (or package with Burnes to land other impact prospect talent at positions that don't have multiple pre-arby big leaguers already in MLB like they do with OF). It's not like either Mitchell or Wiemer couldn't play a corner OF position if Yelich is moved to the team's primary DH role - but they carry more value as CFs. Both of them aren't going to stick around Milwaukee longterm if the Brewers plan to insert Chourio in centerfield and not have to worry about that position for the next 8-10 seasons. They could easily wait another season or so to see how things shake out further, but every year they wait is one less year of team control and/or one less minor league options these guys would have to the team trading for them - that's why despite Wiemer struggling offensively and Mitchell struggling to stay healthy, I don't know if a trade now would be considered "selling low" for either of those players. That extra year of pre-arbitration control carries alot of value with players talented enough to be everyday outfielders in the right situation if they're healthy, and both of them have enough warts (Wiemer - hitting approach, Mitchell - health) to question just how good they can be on a consistent basis as a MLB player. Don't get me wrong - trading either of them before they have more of a chance to establish themselves in the majors risks sending off a guy who could become a stud outfielder...but they've already rolled the dice banking on Chourio as their longterm CF option across what will likely be the full careers of both these mid-20's guys. I'd argue that standing pat too long also carries risk of not getting value for one of them before they could flame out due to their above-mentioned warts.

Yeah, but based on scouting reports and onfield results for a guy who hadn't yet turned 20 playing in his 2nd minor league season I'd say it's more like a pretty well-informed roll of 2 dice with 12 outcomes. only rolling snake eyes is the outcome of Chourio being a bust, 2 outcomes being disappointing, 4-5 outcomes being decent to good, and 4-5 outcomes being Chourio developing into a guy who plays in all star games routinely.

So, Brewers lock up who is likely their best prospect ever before he sets foot in Milwaukee through what could be his age 30 season at what appears to be a pretty team friendly deal even if Chourio just becomes an average MLB OFer, and the thread talking specifically about that deal devolves into someone complaining their primary owner (not sole, far from sole owner, actually) shouldn't be so cheap with his illiquid assets and instead throw that $80m at a veteran 3B for a handful of seasons who goes long stretches of a season not being able to hit even before the deal is formally announced? Or somehow bashing others for saying they'll do so even though the really haven't? What are we yelling about again??? That's normally page 35ish or so territory on a thread like this, 😆

Turang sure did seem to wither in September, but he had a decent stretch from July - August after he spent a few weeks in AAA where he was able to maintain an OBP over 100 points higher than his batting average. And he still managed to be a 1.6 WAR player as a rookie in just over 400 plate appearances - primarily due to defense, but he was replacement level offensively at 2B. He's never going to hit 30 HR a season, but if he bumps his BA into that 0.230-240 range and get on base at a 0.340-350 clip, that's really valuable at the bottom of the order with his base stealing abilities even if he will struggle to reach a 0.725 OPS due to limited slugging. I think he'll continue to develop into a decent offensive player and be a valuable everyday starter with add gold glove-caliber MIF defense.

Following this Chourio deal that basically affirms their plan to have him on their Opening Day 2024 roster, it's quite exciting knowing there's a really good chance the Brewers could field an everyday position player roster consisting of Yelich, Adames, Mr. Vet 1B Retread, Contreras, and then five 1st or 2nd year MLB players (Black at 3rd, Turang at 2nd, and then 3 young OFs between Chourio/Mitchell/Frelick/Wiemer). Not to mention Gasser in the rotation and Uribe throwing gas in the pen. Makes you wonder just how good they'd be if they could ever develop hitting... It also has me thinking they could try to make a splash 1B trade happen this offseason that does add a good chunk of salary to their payroll to offset the savings they're already baking in by nontendering Woodruff and not paying Winker to be awful on the 40 man roster. The Brewers truly are one of the more intriguing teams this offseason based on how many different directions they could go with buying/selling via trade and free agency, and it's all because they're seeing the payoff of incremental improvements to their farm system that have occurred over the past 5-6 seasons (scouting, int'l signing, drafting, pitching lab, instructional development programs, etc).

Wishing Mark A wouldn't be so cheap and signed him for over $100M for those first 8 years

I would agree - I've felt like Yelich wasn't headed to the permanent DH role for another season or two and wanted the Brewers to sign a RH fulltime DH in free agency or acquire one via trade, but now with Chourio likely destined for Milwaukee on Opening Day I think that roster construction strategy may be shifting. If they aren't trading multiple other young OFs this offseason it seems to make alot of sense to have Yelich be their fulltime DH starting in 2024 and then give LF to Chourio, With Mitchell and Frelick in center and right and Wiemer in AAA to refine his hitting approach in the batters box.

Absent a very team-friendly longterm extension club option after year 8, this is exactly what I was hoping this type of deal would look like! I also think doing this contract now sends out a signal that one of the other young brewer OFs could be available via trade as the winter meetings get rolling

I've long been one of Hiura's biggest advocates around here...but count me out on any sort of efforts to compare his status as a prospect first coming up to Chourio. Hiura/Brinson/Arcia all profiling as top 20 overall prospects at one point or another in their minor league careers, sure....but there's a big difference between being in that pecking order for a snapshot in time before getting called up and being considered the top or one of the top couple prospects overall as a 19 year old kid and then proceeding to tear up the Venezuelan Winter League. If Chourio is in AAA in 2032, let's compare what his OPS is to what Hiura did last season in Nashville.

Tatis, Jr signed that massive 14 yr, ~$350M contract when he was a mid 900s OPS offensive player as a 21 yr old - then he got injured and caught taking PEDs, missing all of 2022. Then in 2023 he was magically an upper 700s OPS offensive player. Still really good, but not the type of production teams would fall all over themselves handing out lifetime contracts to. Guessing the Rays want takebacks on what's left of that Wander Franco contract at this point, too. Even with can't-miss, young, star players, there are significant risks with issuing longterm extensions that don't have some sort of team-friendly out option baked in somewhere around when the player would originally reach free agency. I'm hopeful any sort of Chourio deal would have something structured in it that voids significant longterm financial commitment in the event of off the field issues/incidents like PEDs, felonies/legal problems, significant injury incurred with non-baseball activities, etc.

Agreed - and from the Brewers' perspective, gotta try and take that risk now so the contract doesn't have to approach Tatis, Jr./Rodriguez territory in cost to get it done.

If your $100M-$300M comparison refers to Rodriguez's deal, keep in mind his initial base extension is 8 yrs, $120M. The 8-10 yr club options that are performance escalator-based don't go into effect until after 2029, and the Mariners could opt to decline those and Rodriguez finds himself either being a FA at 29 yrs old or takes a 5 year, $90M option. Obviously those two scenarios where the Marlins decline their options are the least likely now, but alot can still happen in 5 years' time. I think a Chourio contract now would resemble the structure of Rodriguez's deal, but that lack of MLB experience may lead to significant differences - both with the length of the initial base extension and how team options are structured. Heck, it wouldn't surprise me in the least for the Brewers to gamble on Chourio's health and ability and set the initial base contract to just 7-8 seasons and include a signing bonus to try and pay Chourio more upfront than what he would earn taking things annually through arbitration, in order to have more team-friendly longterm club options after year 7 or 8.

Woody got injured during last season, and I'd argue the Brewers paying 8 million a season for any manager would be a bad idea. I don't think the brewer front office shares the same retool plan you do, at least right at this moment. If Byrnes is dealt, then yes it's a retool...but dealing Adames now wouldn't necessarily signal that they plan to take a step back in 2024.