Fear The Chorizo

He didn't have one of his options burned last season, so it makes a ton of sense to start wiemer in AAA this season and have him there the full year as injury insurance. If he develops as a hitter, he's a guy you can build around...but he's got to have a quieter approach and swing to reach that potential at the MLB level.

oh I agree and don't expect it....just knowing the Vikings still appear to have a driver's seat for the 7th wildcard spot without Cousins and Jefferson and assuming the best they're going to finish is likely 9-8 just tells you how 'meh' the whole league is besides a handful of teams. My larger point is while many of us are almost quasi rooting for the Packers to lose games to improve their draft position for next season, they're just as close to playing on wildcard weekend as they are to a top 5 draft pick in late November. Had GB won two of those close games they couldn't make play on their last drives, they'dh have made the playoffs this season.

Black has played a bunch of defensive positions mainly to keep his bat in the lineup - i wouldn't want him to be a utility guy they give a bunch of gloves to, none of which he use very well in the field - I think he's their 3rd basemen at some point next season and they likely will open with Monasterio over there instead of signing a great defender/streaky at best hitter to play 3rd for $20M+ per season. Another intriguing option would be if the Brewers choose not to sign a quality veteran DH, give Black that role instead. Of this top 5 list, only Lugo interests me, because I think the rest are going to command too large a contract or carry some injury risk that likely should disqualify them for the Brewers

It's insane, but the Packers are 1 game in the loss column out of the playoffs chasing a team that still has to play Detroit twice and doesn't have an NFL starting-caliber QB on their roster. It really feels like the NFL blob takes up like 25 of the 32 teams, with 2-3 awful teams and 3-4 really good ones at either end of the spectrum.

They pretty much have to be to simply tread water- their 2023 Opening Day starting pitcher and their best hitter opted out and are currently free agents. I do expect the Cubs to be an improved team from last year, but I have a hard time seeing them spending their way to 20+ more wins in one offseason to jump from a team hovering around 0.500 to a NL juggernaut.

I don't see how Jones can be counted on for anything the rest of this season, even if it's not a season ending knee issue...he's been injured since week 1. Feel for the guy, but it's also been bad for a developing offense to have it's best veteran skill position player player be a shell of himself all year long.

Woody got paid almost 11 million in 2023 during his arby 2 season to give them less than 70 ip due to injury. So he was grossly overpaid then. Up to this point woodruff and the Brewers didn't sign a longterm extension that guaranteed him more $$$, likely because woodruff bet on himself in hopes to cash in on a bloated fa contract - injuries blew that bet up in his face, and unfortunately for him his longterm potential for signing a 9 figure contract appears very limited. This is the downside to not signing a longterm deal early in arbitration, and it's not the Brewers being robbers for compensating woodruff annually based on the current system they have to operate in for player salaries. This hypothetical 2 year deal for $12m you keep mentioning is also a joke and totally not realistic - his 2024 arby # would've been $12m alone, and even if he's injured and out the whole season the players union would've been beside themselves if he would have signed a contract like that that also bought out his first free agent year. It's not an insane level of commitment, but it's also unreasonable to think woodruff would sign that. I thought one option would be to offer a 2 year deal in the neighborhood of $15m with a 3rd year club option of $20m, but we don't know yet if any sort of short term extension was discussed or not. That being said, I agree with others in this thread who want to stay out if debating hypothetical when we don't know what was discussed I terms of contracts with woodruff, both since his shoulder injury AND all the previous offseasons that included longterm prearbitration extensions to other brewer pitchers (Peralta and Ashby)

If they settle on an arby salary without having to go to a hearing, that salary is guaranteed.

Woodruff has made about $25M to play baseball over the past 10 or so years with the Brewers. That is a pretty nice way to treat a piece of meat. Paying a guy $10-12m to rehab because you're worried that's the only way for him to be treated like a human? Please.

The ironic thing is in terms of both W/L record and the potential for a team to relocate, the Padres are much more comparable to the Vegas A's than the Brewers are at this point in time.

I sort of disagree - they desperately need a fulltime DH that can act as another lineup anchor with Yelich and Contreras, and I don't consider OF to be a position of surplus because I'm assuming Wiemer opens next season in AAA (he didn't get optioned at all last season, so burning his 1st option for 2024 makes a ton of sense given his struggles offensively most of last year). Taylor is a reserve OF, so that leaves Yelich as the primary LF, Mitchell and Frelick in center and right, and when Chourio is called up I think one of those other younger OFs is trade bait. Soler, to me, will cost less than Candelario in terms of free agent contract value, and Hoskins missed all of last season recovering from an ACL. Belt is going to be 36 next year. I do like the idea of trying to acquire Polanco, but I think that should be in addition to adding a fulltime DH.

After the Yelich contract, can you blame him for not wanting to extend huge dollar contract extensions the past few offseasons in free agency when Yelich frankly underperformed in seasons 2020-2022? Meanwhile, arbitration salaries for their best players have steadily been climbing. The Brewers have been able to sprinkle in homegrown, pre-arbitration players onto their roster rather than playing heavily in veteran free agency, and that's likely to continue in 2024 with some of the prospects they have knocking on the door. Would you rather the break Chourio in at some point next season making league minimum the next few seasons, or instead would it be better to throw $12-15M a season at a 30-something hitter on the downside of his career so payroll stays higher? The combination of replacing Tellez with Bauers and nontendering Woodruff likely shaves off around $15-17 million in 2024 payroll commitments they would have been obligated to spend had they tendered those two players. Both of them spent large parts of last year on IL, Tellez had a bad year when he was healthy and Woodruff just got done with a shoulder surgery that likely has him out all of 2024. Let's see what the Brewers wind up doing with that $17M in budget first in free agency or in the trade market before jumping to a conclusion that they're ultra cheap. If they turn that savings into a free agent DH or starter that is actually healthy and able to contribute to the 2024 MLB team, then that's making the team better on the field with the same budget they would've had to pay guys who were going to be a net negative for 2024. Also, the Brewers could trim payroll by quite a bit from their 2023 amount and still have a more talented roster while keeping Burnes' and Adames' increased Arby salaries around and adding a FA or two, because they had roughly 25% of their 2023 payroll give them next to no positive onfield contributions last season due to injury and/or poor players collecting checks. Or perhaps you want them to go on an unsustainable 2-3 year spending binge like what the Padres just did, only to not win a WS and now look at having to watch an expensive and aging roster get steadily gutted while taking out loans to cover bloated payroll commitments.

Hader? Btw, how many titles has the Rays' model earned them? I think the thing to learn is that pitching is fickle and incredibly injury prone, and the organization has got to excel at developing pitching talent - something the Brewers have proven to be able to do.

With regard to Hiura, Keston didn't give the Brewers the option to retain him another year. He opted to become a free agent and find a fresh start.

That didn't answer the question you were asked. Also, look how well stockpiling injured pitchers worked out for the Dodgers just because they had money to 🔥. Wishing woodruff well - hope he can continue pitching at a high level somewhere, but tbh the odds are against that.

by big free agent payday, I meant a healthy Woodruff at the end of this season could likely get a 3-4 year contract from someone at around $75M...that's not even close to megadeal territory for starting pitchers nowadays, but it's probably the best he can expect given his age and injury history. Sucks for Woody, but taking a gamble and not signing a 2-3 year deal now gives him a shot at getting a sizeable contract next offseason instead of being guaranteed between ~$20-30M for the next two years and being a full year older before reaching unrestricted free agency.

I'd rather they do a trade like this for Bauer than a trade like they did for Winker again and handcuff options for adding a starting pitcher via free agency, or a legitimate DH. Basically shuffle some deck chairs around at 1B and wind up with that position costing slightly less for now...although I assume this also means 37 yr old Santana isn't in the mix to resign, either. Not a huge fan of the trade, because Avina is still plenty young enough to take a jump in his development and could become a more valuable prospect a season or two from now even if the Brewers viewed him as heavily blocked in the MLB outfield longterm...but then again this is a very similar trade to the ones happening all over baseball this week. Once the dust settles on the tenders/nontenders and 40 man shuffling around MLB, then more significant trades and free agent signings start happening.

I think the new CBA in 2022 had a stipulation that for players who settled with their teams on a salary for the year without going to a hearing would receive full season termination pay even if released prior to the start of the season....what I take that to mean is that if the Brewers do tender Woodruff in a couple hours, Woodruff could simply accept that tender and be guaranteed that salary for 2024 no matter what happens with his health or any future trade. I do agree that there isn't necessarily a rush to have to trade Woodruff at this point - the Brewers have plenty of room on their 40 man, too....however tendering Woodruff would in effect guarantee him at least some level of compensation by the Brewers to potentially contribute nothing at the MLB level in 2024 and walk in free agency.

Would you prefer they tender Woodruff and potentially have to pay him close to $10M to rehab? The theoretical 2-3 year contract offer to Woodruff that includes a significant pay cut for 2024 sounds well and good for folks on message boards, but if Woodruff really does feel like he can get back to pitching later this season and prove to be healthy, I bet he's willing to take that gamble at this stage to still try and set himself up for a big free agent payday after this year. So, if that short-term contract extension at a discount is a pipe dream, then the next best thing the Brewers can do is try to drum up some sort of trade for Woodruff rather than just nontendering him and using the payroll savings to sign a different FA starter that can actually be in the Opening Day rotation for 2024.

There isn't much about Soler's offensive profile that should bring Adames to mind as a comparable player offensively. I'd be open to Candelario as well, but I think he's in for a bigger payday than Soler given the fact he can still play adequate defense in the IF. The Brewers' roster already has plenty of players that offer defensive versatility over power and OBP - I consistently fail to understand why a 26-man roster can't have what amounts to a full-time DH capable of hitting 40HR in the season on it just because he'd be a below average defender at the corner OF position. Having a roster full of players with defensive versatility limits how good your DH is during most of the games when Contreras is catching and Yelich is playing LF - the Brewers for years have had problems scoring runs, so improving the lineup should be paramount. The easiest way for the Brewers to do that is to throw $$$ at a full time DH. And I will add that I'd also love to sign Bauer this offseason for the rotation - I think there is going to be some payroll available for the Brewers to play in free agency this offseason, particularly if they don't tender Woodruff if they can't ink him to a short term contract that pays him a much lower amount in 2024 than what they would have budgeted to pay him in arbitration had he ended the season healthy.

If he's not willing to take a 2 yr ~$18-20M contract that pays just a few million to rehab this season and $15-17M in 2025, with a club option year for 2026 to pay him another $20M, it sucks to say but I'd rather nontender him than offer him arbitration and risk paying him only to rehab and leave in free agency next offseason. The shoulder injury is also alarming enough to me to justify a simple nontender and wishing him well. The Brewers are not the Dodgers, who can throw large chunks of payroll at wounded pitchers in hopes they fully recover and can impact the team in future seasons. Slightly different circumstances, but the Brewers should also take a long look at the dilemma the Rays now have with Glasnow after giving him a small contract extension after he blew out his elbow a few years ago in the midst of his arbitration. They're now trying to trade Glasnow for what probably amounts to peanuts, because there's no way they want to pay him $25M in 2024 given his injury history and uneven production since he came back from TJ in 2022.

They desperately need a DH, and Soler is the best FA DH option besides Ohtani. yes, he can still play a couple dozen games in the OF if you need him to, but that shouldn't be plan A for Soler (for the Brewers or any other team he'd sign with). And I'd also add that pretty much anyone in the "crowded" Brewers OF can make room for Chourio when he shows up...he's one that simply isn't blockable. If Wiemer isn't traded this offseason, my money is on him opening in AAA this year, and that doesn't mean either Mitchell or Frelick aren't tradeable assets once Chourio is deemed ready for the Show.

Starting to sense a trend and wondering if throwing up competing clickbait between team message boards owned by the same entity is some form of weird marketing strategy to generate more revenue for the sites. Looking forward to the "Cubs likely to sign Hader", "Chourio could net Brewers top pitching prospect in Horton", and "Williams to Wrigley makes sense for Counsell's Cubby pen" threads to hit this board all before the Winter Meetings begin.

Are the Orioles smart though? The reason they currently have so much young talent is because they were awful for soooo long at the MLB level. It will be very interesting seeing how their GM navigates trying to improve their roster without thinning out their farm system or increasing their payroll to a place where their ownership isn't comfortable as young talent starts working through arbitration and adding impact via FA gets overly expensive. I think Baltimore should be very active in the trade market to solidify pitching, so Burnes makes a ton of sense for them. He also makes a ton of sense for the LAD - if Burnes truly is on the trade market, Brewers need to get a bidding war going between these two teams.

After a very solid offensive season, Jorge Soler opted out of his contract and became a free agent. After a few injury-plagued years, Soler managed to stay pretty healthy and returned to producing plenty of pop - what was surprising was the K rate reduction. Soler profiles as the type of bat that I think the Brewers should covet in their lineup this offseason as their DH, who can occasionally play a corner OF spot if Yelich or Frelick need a day off against LHP - RH power bat with solid OBP who's still young enough to make a 3-5 year FA contract offer worth it. He passed up making about $12 next season when opting out - If he'd be open to inking a 2-3 year deal worth around $36-54M, or a 4-5 year deal worth around $60-75M, I'd hope it's the Brewers signing. I feel like DH has been such a black hole on this roster that the Brewers need to be aggressive and pay for a middle of the order power bat who isn't a scrap heap veteran or a guy coming off a neck surgery they hope can regain being a replacement-level hitter. IMO, Soler is the guy that checks the most boxes for what the Brewers need more of offensively and who they could have a realistic chance of signing.