Fear The Chorizo

Following this Chourio deal that basically affirms their plan to have him on their Opening Day 2024 roster, it's quite exciting knowing there's a really good chance the Brewers could field an everyday position player roster consisting of Yelich, Adames, Mr. Vet 1B Retread, Contreras, and then five 1st or 2nd year MLB players (Black at 3rd, Turang at 2nd, and then 3 young OFs between Chourio/Mitchell/Frelick/Wiemer). Not to mention Gasser in the rotation and Uribe throwing gas in the pen. Makes you wonder just how good they'd be if they could ever develop hitting... It also has me thinking they could try to make a splash 1B trade happen this offseason that does add a good chunk of salary to their payroll to offset the savings they're already baking in by nontendering Woodruff and not paying Winker to be awful on the 40 man roster. The Brewers truly are one of the more intriguing teams this offseason based on how many different directions they could go with buying/selling via trade and free agency, and it's all because they're seeing the payoff of incremental improvements to their farm system that have occurred over the past 5-6 seasons (scouting, int'l signing, drafting, pitching lab, instructional development programs, etc).

Wishing Mark A wouldn't be so cheap and signed him for over $100M for those first 8 years

I would agree - I've felt like Yelich wasn't headed to the permanent DH role for another season or two and wanted the Brewers to sign a RH fulltime DH in free agency or acquire one via trade, but now with Chourio likely destined for Milwaukee on Opening Day I think that roster construction strategy may be shifting. If they aren't trading multiple other young OFs this offseason it seems to make alot of sense to have Yelich be their fulltime DH starting in 2024 and then give LF to Chourio, With Mitchell and Frelick in center and right and Wiemer in AAA to refine his hitting approach in the batters box.

Absent a very team-friendly longterm extension club option after year 8, this is exactly what I was hoping this type of deal would look like! I also think doing this contract now sends out a signal that one of the other young brewer OFs could be available via trade as the winter meetings get rolling

I've long been one of Hiura's biggest advocates around here...but count me out on any sort of efforts to compare his status as a prospect first coming up to Chourio. Hiura/Brinson/Arcia all profiling as top 20 overall prospects at one point or another in their minor league careers, sure....but there's a big difference between being in that pecking order for a snapshot in time before getting called up and being considered the top or one of the top couple prospects overall as a 19 year old kid and then proceeding to tear up the Venezuelan Winter League. If Chourio is in AAA in 2032, let's compare what his OPS is to what Hiura did last season in Nashville.

Tatis, Jr signed that massive 14 yr, ~$350M contract when he was a mid 900s OPS offensive player as a 21 yr old - then he got injured and caught taking PEDs, missing all of 2022. Then in 2023 he was magically an upper 700s OPS offensive player. Still really good, but not the type of production teams would fall all over themselves handing out lifetime contracts to. Guessing the Rays want takebacks on what's left of that Wander Franco contract at this point, too. Even with can't-miss, young, star players, there are significant risks with issuing longterm extensions that don't have some sort of team-friendly out option baked in somewhere around when the player would originally reach free agency. I'm hopeful any sort of Chourio deal would have something structured in it that voids significant longterm financial commitment in the event of off the field issues/incidents like PEDs, felonies/legal problems, significant injury incurred with non-baseball activities, etc.

Agreed - and from the Brewers' perspective, gotta try and take that risk now so the contract doesn't have to approach Tatis, Jr./Rodriguez territory in cost to get it done.

If your $100M-$300M comparison refers to Rodriguez's deal, keep in mind his initial base extension is 8 yrs, $120M. The 8-10 yr club options that are performance escalator-based don't go into effect until after 2029, and the Mariners could opt to decline those and Rodriguez finds himself either being a FA at 29 yrs old or takes a 5 year, $90M option. Obviously those two scenarios where the Marlins decline their options are the least likely now, but alot can still happen in 5 years' time. I think a Chourio contract now would resemble the structure of Rodriguez's deal, but that lack of MLB experience may lead to significant differences - both with the length of the initial base extension and how team options are structured. Heck, it wouldn't surprise me in the least for the Brewers to gamble on Chourio's health and ability and set the initial base contract to just 7-8 seasons and include a signing bonus to try and pay Chourio more upfront than what he would earn taking things annually through arbitration, in order to have more team-friendly longterm club options after year 7 or 8.

Woody got injured during last season, and I'd argue the Brewers paying 8 million a season for any manager would be a bad idea. I don't think the brewer front office shares the same retool plan you do, at least right at this moment. If Byrnes is dealt, then yes it's a retool...but dealing Adames now wouldn't necessarily signal that they plan to take a step back in 2024.

Those 365 ABs are the outlier for his career, to be honest. Adames is a good player, but one I want no part of extending at the market rate for veteran Shortstops who have some power. If they can get a decent prospect package in return I wouldn't mind trading him this offseason and eliminate the risk of giving a QO to him coming off another down year next offseason and then seeing him accept it.

In a perfect world from the organizations perspective, sure...but I think they can offset some of the catastrophic risk a deal like this would entail if they included a mutual option near the end of a 10 yr deal. Give the player incentive to outperform the contract in his prime to justify an opt-out 1 season early, then if he proves to be an all world player you've got 9 seasons to work out an extension. If no player options, then those free agent buyout years will have little to no discount baked into the contract, and those team option years will need to be a much higher overall cost.

Love still is struggling to throw deep on time....I actually would really like to see him overthrow a post or deep fly route by a few yards, which would indicate he's making the read to throw the ball on time instead of waiting to see it break open and then not be able to get it far enough out there to hit a streaking open receiver in stride.

All it takes is one major injury, and that windfall of guaranteed, life-changing cash evaporates - especially if that injury happens before arbitration kicks in and you never reach your full potential...not to mention the fact that Chourio hasn't even set foot onto a MLB diamond (although I have very little concern of him being a bust assuming good health). I think any sort of longterm contract at this stage should be buying out 3-4 years of his free agency, which should get that overall pricetag in the $175M range - with some sort of opt outs built in around years 6 (club option) and ~year 9 (player/mutual option) that allow for the contract to end early in the event of something catastrophically bad happening to Chourio or him being extremely underpaid towards the end of the deal.

Acuna was 21 when he inked his ~100 Million extension after playing in just 1 MLB season as a 20 yr old. I think somewhere between that and Carrol's extension is likely what the Brewers are hoping for, both in terms of overall dollars and years. Having zero MLB time to this point is what makes things interesting, a potential 10 year deal that buys out 4 years of free agency with some variety of club and player/mutual options would lead to Chourio still being just 30 and in line for another massive contract...then again, unfortunate injuries or turning into a pumpkin at the MLB level could also happen and the Brewers would be on the hook for 9 plus figures. Gotta think there would be some sort of club option about halfway through the contract that would kick in an initial set of escalators to pay Chourio more than what he'd earn in arbitration sooner, and then perhaps a player option towards the back year or two of a 10yr extension that could allow Chourio to opt out if his onfield production is grossly underpaid close to a decade from now.

Yes, but making that type of veteran qb contract work with what will likely have to be a market-setting contract for Jefferson this offseason plus a big contract needed soon for Darrisaw will lead to some significant holes across the rest of their roster for multiple seasons. They are a roster very much in limbo. I think they'd be better off going with Hall as the starter next season and then gearing up for drafting a quarterback in 2025 early.

Crazy to think, but GB has a playoff spot in front of them if they continue to develop on offense in a very top heavy NFC - even assuming a loss to the Chiefs, the rest of their schedule sets up very well for a good December with a remaining head to head against MN to potentially jump them in the standings, and finishing 9-8 likely gets them the 7th spot. Had they found a way to win a couple of those close losses early in the season, they'd firmly be a 10+ win team in Love's 1st season as a starter. This team's been frustrating plenty of time in 2023, but to me watching a very young team struggle and grow and likely wind up around 0.500 or even better is much more rewarding than watching a team with a veteran HOF qb in the twilight of his career scuffle around to a similar record and still wonder when the rebuild is going to officially start. All that being said, they will now probably wind up losing out, lol - such is life in the NFL blob with a really young team!

I expect Wiemer to open next season in AAA and don't really want him back in a MLB batters box until he quiets down his swing/approach. TT is a great fit as a reserve OF, being able to give any of the LH hitting OF starters (Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick) a day off and still wind up with a few hundred plate appearances - although he's getting kind of expensive in that role. The other side of this is between all the young OF's you mentioned, at least one of them should be dealt to make room for Chourio, and that should happen this offseason (or at the latest by next year's deadline if they plan on keeping Chourio down for service time reasons to open the 2024 season). That's just a roster spot #'s game with guys all having a bunch of team control and a guy who's more talented than all of them beating the MLB door down for everyday playing time. To me, the DH position should be independent from any other position grouping for their roster - so the outfield logjam they need to sort out has no bearing on what the Brewers should do at the DH position, which IMO is bring in a veteran RH hitter via free agency or trade.

Then what happens with the blazing fast and elite defensive OF winds up having just 1 player providing anywhere close to replacement level offensive production at those positions? You're expecting way too much from young talent - there will be hiccups. I'm hopeful Chourio is in Milwaukee this coming season, too - but that doesn't mean I want most of the diamond occupied by prearbitration talent in the field behind what will most likely be a thinner pitching staff in 2024. A trade for Jimenez would likely be a 1 year stopgap, and Yelich could easily wind up as the team's primary DH in 2025 making his $26+ million salary. Let Yelich make that much in LF i 2024 and give him actual days off - particularly against LH starting pitching. Simply put, even if Yelich is one of the team's best hitters, I don't want him getting significant playing time as the team's DH when he is given days off in the field that are necessary to preserve his back. In order to do so, the Brewers need to add more offensive-minded talent to their roster - and hitters like Jimenez do make a ton of sense to achieve that goal. I don't care if you can't play Jimenez anywhere in the field - again, there is plenty of room on a 26-man roster for an offense-only slugger you can pencil in the lineup almost everyday as the team's primary DH.

WAR for the DH position is a poor metric - basically a 0.0 WAR full time DH would be a huge upgrade to who the Brewers have had at that position. Shifting Yelich and Contreras to DH in games then significantly diminishes the offensive impact the Brewers would get from LF or C in those games, too. Specific to Jimenez, much of his WAR limitations have been a mix of being an awful defensive player and injuries. His career OPS is north of 0.800 in the range between Yelich and Contreras' 2023 production. At many points of last season, I would've paid $25M plus for another hitter of their caliber in the everyday lineup, so $16M seems more than reasonable.

While I don't necessarily want the Brewers to trade for Jimenez specifically if the asking price is too large in terms of prospects, I'll continue to disagree with the notion that DH for the Brewers is just fine with a multiplayer approach assuming Contreras and Yelich cover roughly 1/3rd of the games at that position. That still leaves 2/3 of those starts given to guys like Winker or other marginal hitters pulled off a bench that has consistently been built with defensive versatility as the priority. And again, giving Contreras and Yelich DH starts on days they would typically get a day off in the field winds up not really giving them days off they need to avoid burning out or getting injured down the stretch. That was a necessity more than a luxury for last year's Brewers team, because they were putrid enough offensively without those two in the lineup that they had to keep them in the lineup. Yelich OPS'd under 0.700 in August after playing basically every day from June on and then missed about half of September with a nagging back issue. Swinging a bat and back issues don't go well together, so I struggle to see how Yelich DH-ing in games once or twice a week is actual rest that he needs at this stage in his career. Contreras was strong down the stretch last season, no doubt, but asking that much of a catcher at any age is a recipe for him breaking down, too. I would much rather have the Brewers allocate significant payroll to acquire a quality RH bat that profiles as a DH (Soler) for a multiple year deal, than go into another season with a piecemeal approach and repeat the same roster building mistakes they've been doing for several seasons. They have plenty of youth set to play everyday in 2024 to offset any payroll dedicated to an impact veteran DH, heck it doesn't even need to be much more than the ~$8M thrown at Winker last year. This team NEEDS offensive impact from the RH batters box, and it has to be a priority to improve that sole position on a 26 man roster that emphasizes offense ONLY to give the Brewers another lineup anchor along with Contreras and Yelich.

While I agree with most of this article, I think it still sells Chourio a little short in terms of the helium he's earned with his performance the last two years in the minors as a kid. The Brewers haven't had a prospect of Chourio's caliber at his age since perhaps Robin Yount - and Yount barely spent any time in the minors, winding up in the majors the year after he was drafted as a 17 yr old, primarily because he was already a really solid defensive shortstop. The article also doesn't mention one of Chourio's best tools that benefits him both offensively and defensively - speed. He's a legit 40-50 stolen base threat to couple with elite bat to ball skills with plenty of pop for a guy his size. His one offensive tool that needs further development to avoid being exposed at the major league level is taking walks when he's being pitched around and limiting bad balls he swings at. The OBP sitting 50-60 points above his BA is ok, and Chourio will likely always be a more aggressive hitter in the batter's box, but I'd like to see a hitter of his caliber get that OBP up closer to 80-100 points above his BA with better plate discipline. A walk for Chourio could frequently turn into a double a couple pitches later with a SB. The comps Chourio has with the mix of production, minor league levels, and age are truly unicorn-like.

Unfortunately for him, the one thing Mellusi has proven to be consistently good at is getting injured - I doubt he has an NFL career ahead of him whether he tries to latch on as an UDFA this year or finds another year of eligibility at UW and is an UDFA in the 2025 draft. Guys that are on the NFL fringe to begin with don't get many opportunities to find a NFL career, and guys in that talent level who are frequently injured are given even less rope. I think the best case for Mellusi would be to roll the dice on having a healthy and productive 6th collegiate season to at least boost his profile and guarantee an opportunity to make a team's practice squad if he stays healthy.

That wide open basketball on grass passing game that also features a ton of deep passing routes doesn't look very good when your offensive line struggles in pass protection, and you're facing really good talent along the dline. I think the ideal fit for this offense is a more athletic offensive line (wi has always recruited road graders), and a a true dual threat quarterback. Hopefully another year or two into the roster turnover will yield offensive personnel better suited to play in this style.

If an organization like the Brewers finally starts getting young talent infusions from their farm system every year, their payroll will fluctuate as one core of talent reaches free agency/leaves and is replaced by prearbitration players on their roster. It's the system they have to play within, and even the successful large market teams operate that way to an extent. That's what I see happening over the next couple of seasons - id rather they give Black the 3b spot next year at league minimum salary than spend $20+ million annually to sign a guy like Chapman to play there.

They're going to go from an exciting young team with alot of draft capital that a great veteran quarterback could lead on a run to a team in search of a new front office in less than a season because they listened too much to the qb they traded for and added guys he wanted to come with him and he instantly got injured. Checked Cobb's statline for the year...3 catches for about 20 yards...