Fear The Chorizo

I think metrics in determining overall player value for DHs aren't worth very much - particularly when part of the argument against Soler being a valuable hitter for the next 3 seasons as a DH continues to lean on defensive metrics from earlier in his career that discount the offensive production he provided while playing a butcher in left or right field. To me, a primary DH's value is better measured by traditional counting stats as an offensive player in the middle of a lineup - once it gets more nuanced beyond OPS I stop paying attention. Sanchez's career OPS is 780, while Soler's is 797. Comparable, but Soler is a better hitter despite being pretty inconsistent due primarily to injury history in recent years. Also, Sanchez hasn't had a season that significantly outperformed his career average OPS since 2019. Soler OPS'd 0.853 last season.

There was a noticeable dip in viewership, and the NFL skirted the issue by changing their policy to not require people who didn't want to stand for the anthem to be on the field during it. Revenues were still increasing due to tv contracts, but the nfl got a ton of pressure from networks and corporate advertisers to put a stop to the visibility of it because viewership did decline, particularly on a per capita basis. Had the NFL not changed course after a bunch of scmucks changed the channel, the current avalanch of tv $ wouldn't be nearly as lucrative. I hate comparing anything nfl to mlb in terms of tv revenue - just two completely different season models.

There was a noticeable dip in viewership, and the NFL skirted the issue by changing their policy to not require people who didn't want to stand for the anthem to be on the field during it. Revenues were still increasing due to tv contracts, but the nfl got a ton of pressure from networks and corporate advertisers to put a stop to the visibility of it because viewership did decline, particularly on a per capita basis. Had the NFL not changed course after a bunch of scmucks changed the channel, the current avalanch of tv $ wouldn't be nearly as lucrative. I hate comparing anything nfl to mlb in terms of tv revenue - just two completely different season models.

Soler is a better hitter with more power than Garcia, and he is a DH. Not a comparable player just because Soler played OF when he was younger. Again, if the Giants play Soler consistently in the OF, this contract is a mistake because his lack of defensive ability and propensity to get injured out there will negate his bat. If they take away his glove and tell him to just worry about hitting 0.250 with 35+ HR and an OPS over 0.800 the next 3 seasons from the 5 or 6 spot in their order, this contract is a steal.

I think the Dodgers already have like 17 injured veteran starters on their payroll...they might have lost track and just assumed they did sign Woody already.

Soler is NOT an OF in my book, so the fact the Brewers have a trio of prearbitration OFs + Chourio who all play quality defense but haven't proven to be above average hitters for their positions doesn't really change my mind on what a hitter like Soler would have been to this roster the next 3 seasons. He'd have been this roster's primary DH, Hoskins is the roster's primary 1B for 2024 - then the team doesn't have to get cute overplaying Yelich/Contreras at DH when they should be getting actual days off during the season. And Yelich will not become a primary DH for this roster making $25+M a season, even if the Brewers have a bunch of good and young defensive OFs....at least until more than one of them (Chourio, Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer) prove to be plus offensively for the OF positions they play. This is all besides the point with Soler now a Giant....although I'd have a similar take on JD Martinez for a 1-2 year deal as well.

True, but I also don't see a 3 yr contract for an established free agent DH in his early 30s to be a huge risk, and I think dramatically upgrading their weakest offensive position from last season is more valuable than what amounts to marginal upgrades/status quo at two roster spots with basically the same financial cost. Particularly when the Brewers are already flush with catchers even without Sanchez.

If he is their DH, absolutely no reason to be worried about years 2 and 3 of this contract. Soler is 31, not 38. If the Giants plan to play him alot in the field, then yes this is a bad contract. But I would have loved the Brewers to sign this guy to be their DH the next 3 seasons at that cost.

I don't know why you'd be surprised given the fact the Kelces have been everywhere the past few years, and that is Jason's personality - not going to bash someone for being themselves instead of just being a polite clichet robot. Sticking a microphone in front of people right after winning a title to capture the raw emotion of it, oftentimes without a tape delay or filter, is going to lead to this. He's not a politician, he's a football player. I do agree with you on the incident with Reid on the sideline - that's unacceptable behavior no matter what the moment/level of emotion. People never want the Chiefs to win anymore because of their success, but I am surprised they aren't getting hate for the way they act. That being said, I hope Jordan Love turns into an insufferable personality. It seems like a requirement to be the best QB in the league. It's more to do with the fact they keep winning and are in the spotlight all the time because of it - this sort of stuff happens on sidelines and in locker rooms across the rest of the league, too. There just isn't 5,000 cameras looking for every little thing on every other team's sideline when it's not the Super Bowl and it's not the Chiefs - who have the best player in the league, probably the best coach in the league, a star TE who's dating TSwift and drawing all sorts of non-football fan interest, and carrying a pretty young and inexperienced roster around all of this while playing a ton of postseason/high pressure games.

Would tend to agree, but if I'm the Brewers I can't trade Mis right now either because the upside is just too amazing to give up with that arm and his stuff...even if it's a coinflip chance at best he stays healthy and improves his command enough to be a Frontline starter.

Yeah, if that's the case the White Sox must be fine with rolling the dice on Cease being healthy to start this season and shopping him at the deadline...or they think they have a shot at competing in the AL Central.

I was confused at the end of the OT with the running clock, assuming if the Chiefs didn't score before the clock read zeroes that the game would've been over - not realizing it would've just cycled into a new quarter until Romo explained that as the Chiefs were scoring the TD. The way that last play unfolded it almost seemed like the 49ers didn't know the situation either, and didn't have a good defensive call in assuming the Chiefs were going to need to take a TO. To Reid and the Chiefs' credit, if there was confusion on San Fran's end they took advantage of it and ran a really well-designed play with a reasonably early snap...they had to run a play before the quarter clock expired, but they did snap with 5+ seconds left on the play clock. In that particular situation, I was shocked the 49ers didn't call a TO to set up their defense. That being said, one change I would like to see this new playoff OT rules follow is to treat the end of a quarter like an end of a game situation, too - which would give a team that can execute a long drive to drain the clock and wind up with a FG another option for winning the game outright, or forcing the opponent on their 1st possession to have some urgency getting into scoring position while also knowing they'd have 4 downs on the whole drive to do so. That 15:00 OT period expired with just the two possessions. If at the end of the OT period, the game was still tied for whatever reason, then the next OT quarter would be sudden death that would start with another coin toss to prevent the team that had possession at the end of the 1st OT period from just sitting with the ball on the fringe of scoring range and then kicking a FG to start the sudden death OT period.

Yeah that's just not realistic and a pipe dream even from their point of view. Cease pitched like a mid rotation starter in 2023, and his 2022 season where he nearly won a Cy Young has been by far and away his statistical outlier for performance and not the other way around. If the starting point for a Cease trade in the White Sox eyes is that level of prospect talent, than Cease is untradeable - which is a mistake from the White Sox' management. One thing that is noticeable in recent player for prospect trades is people undervalue what impact prospects are worth across baseball - there just aren't many trades anymore with guys 1-2 years out from free agency that return top 25 in all of MLB-caliber talent when they have yet to play at the MLB level. i actually think a trade for Cease could come together from the Brewers using some reasonably expendable prospect pieces, starting with one of the young MLB OFs and then including a less-developed minor league arm or two that may become quality MLB starters but need multiple years of development and a good amount of luck with health/performance before arriving in the majors...similar to what Cease was considered when he was part of the trade from the Cubs in return for Quintana that got him to the south side to begin with. (Jimenez + Cease went to the sox).

True, and it needs to be with how their system treats them alot like running backs. Deebo is a tough SOB but he's a walking mash unit at 28....Kittle is 30...Aiyuk is about to be playing in his 5th year option season on his rookie contract and likely needs a huge extension to stick around longterm. McCaffrey is a stud RB, but the volume of touches he's gotten is just asking for him to sustain a significant injury or just plum wear down in a big hurry, too. On Defense, Greenlaw probably just got himself cut by rupturing his achilles running onto the field (~$3M cap hit instead of paying him $8M to sit on IR all next season), Chase Young is likely signing elsewhere because they have no cap room - and multiple guys in their front 7 now have steep cap hits for the next few seasons that are going to require significant restructuring when the time comes for the 49ers to offer Purdy any kind of contract that allows him to afford living in San Francisco without having a roommates.com profile. This was the 49ers' year to win it - it now gets much, much harder for them to sustain their recent successes with the roster they have, even if they find a way to keep everyone around.

Both of those defenses were completely gassed....but credit goes to Spagnuolo being aggressive at key moments in the 4th and OT to force fg attempts by having hot reads covered behind well schemed blitzes. And Mahomes is absolutely that dude in the NFL right now. The assumption is that the 49ers will be the nfc favorite again next year, but that talented roster is now a year older, more expensive, and thinner. And while Purdy is a great fit in their system and right now is very inexpensive, the 49ers will be needing more from that position as time goes on as they won't be as dominant everywhere else on the field from a talent standpoint.

Hader was drafted out of high school and wasn't a big ticket bonus baby - even with that, he had to spend parts of 6 seasons logging about 550 IP working his way up through the minors before he wound up in Milwaukee as a reliever. I don't blame Hader for a second wanting to try and maximize his arbitration value chasing saves, and then doing what he could to preserve his health after 11+ seasons of pitching professionally when he was at the doorstep of his one shot at a huge payday in free agency approaching 30 yrs old as a high leverage late inning reliever. That being said, it's not the Brewers he's upset with/bashing - it's the arbitration system. Doubt he'll discuss/admit it, but I think his wife's pregnancy complications early in that 2022 season put alot about his baseball career and priorities for him and his family into a different perspective than the whole "aw shucks, I'll do whatever the team needs me to do" mentality.

Yep, artifact of an era where it was a surprise when starters didn't go 7+IP

In the specific situation that led to him getting suspended during his prime as a pitcher, Bauer was the victim. Dislike him for shining light on it if you want or criticize him for putting himself in that situation to begin with based on terrible judgment, but I'm not going to be upset at him for trying to clear his name. And he's not trying to say he's a saint in all this, either. He has spoken about making reckless decisions and mistakes in the past - and has openly stated he's tried to learn from that and change his off the field personal life. I'd honestly rather have a person continue to be out there publicly dealing with what comes with trying to earn a second chance rather than effectively canceling himself by deleting social media/shying away from publicity/etc. What people see who are open to signing Bauer on this type of deal is a pitcher who's won a Cy Young award and could have easily won more had he been able to pitch in MLB the past 3 seasons - he's proven to be a durable starter to give a team 175+IP a season. Without the baggage, some well-earned and now some assumed/implied, a pitcher of Bauer's caliber would be making $30+M a season.

You forgot, "Brewers make trade, but didn't get enough in return after comparing any actual trade package with their cherry-picked or at times nonexistent package that always includes at least one untradeable prospect from a different team. " Or, find a way to insert piggybacking any pitcher even if it means having a 20 man staff on a 26 man roster, along with worrying about how any position player signing may limit Yelich's playing time at 1B. Brewer offseason in a nutshell

I still think the Brewers should make a splash move and sign one of the FA righthanded DHs - JD Martinez or Jorge Soler - to solidify their everyday lineup and add more pop, particularly against lefthanded pitching. I also think 1 more veteran starter that has the track record of taking the ball every 5th day and giving you 200 IP would be incredibly valuable to this team....which is why Bauer makes a ton of sense from an onfield performance standpoint. Frankly, they probably have the budget to still do both, and I hope they make at least one of these type of moves.

Junis is an ideal arm to plug into this staff at a very team-friendly cost - solid option for a long reliever but could easily fill a bottom of the rotation spot coupled with one of the lefties (Hall/Gasser/Ashby) as sort of a piggy back role to give hitters dramatically different looks between the 1st and 2nd time through the order.

I'm quite alright with Adames being shopped a bit right now, because I'd rather get some sort of prospect package in return for him now than risk him repeating his 2023 season and be left stuck with not even offering him a QO next offseason for fear he'd take it. I also think if a trade does happen that sends Adames out of Milwaukee, the Brewers would turn around and sign a veteran starter, DH, and/or 3B to bolster their roster at other positions.

It wouldn't surprise me to see him wind up in Dallas if McCarthy goes down in flames next season - it seems like that'd be oil and water with how much Jerry Jones meddles, but the two of them have a longstanding relationship - with the hard decisions and contract extensions + Dak's huge 2024 contract on the books, next season is the wrong time to bring a new coach into that spot.

The irony also expands with the fact that had Bauer been able to pitch the entire 2021 season in LA, Burnes probably doesn't have a Cy Young in his trophy case at all. Bauer won it in 2020 with that short COVID season as a Red and his numbers in 2021 were right there again.

What the Brewers appear to be getting ready to do in 2024 (i.e., turning over a bunch of rotation spots to prospects/young starters) is pretty much the exact same thing they did in 2019 when Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta first saw a bunch of starts together in the rotation after their 2018 playoff run with a makeshift rotation. at least that was the plan, until injury (Peralta) and performance (Burnes) had two of them out of that rotation In 2019 before it every really got rolling, Burnes was probably the worst starter in baseball and actually wound up back in AAA before being bumped back up in the pen during the wildcard push late in the season. Freddy had shoulder issues by late April that season and came back largely in a bullpen role when he did get healthier, and he really pitched pretty poorly that year. And last season's Brewer starting rotation was far from the strength of the roster - it was the bullpen, then the defense, then starting pitching and hitting was the weakest link for most of the year. This offseason, the bullpen has either stayed the same or got even better/deeper, two key starters moved on due to injury (Woody) or trade/contract (Burnes). Lauer was a complete nonfactor and Woodruff missed a ton of the 2023 season - people look at the names on the 40 man compared to what they had headed into last season and assume their rotation will be worse, without realizing two of the key starters in 2023 didn't provide enough innings or positive production to even factor into the overall success of a team that won its division easily. I'm not singling you or anyone in particular out, but to me it seems like some posters upset about the return for Burnes still act like he's coming off his his 2021 season (no doubt top 5 starter in the game), and not his last two seasons (#20-30 starter in the game range). 1 year of performance for a guy that will win a Cy Young award for you is worth more than what the Brewers got from the Orioles via trade, however 1 year for a guy who "might" be a Cy Young contender for you if he pitches better than he has the past couple seasons is much more in line for what the Brewers got in terms of prospect/mlb ready player with upside/draft capital. And even if some people disagree with that assessment, what they got is alot more than a package for Burnes at the deadline this year would've netted. The debate IMO may be if the current Brewers' roster with Burnes was good enough to roll the dice on getting more value overall for the franchise by a "run it back" rotation approach headlined by Burnes and Peralta, and trying to win a WS with him and then getting nothing in return but a QO pick in the 2025 draft, or if trading him this offseason was the right move and giving the organization flexibility to backfill his roster spot with cheaper young talent knowing there will be bumps in the road with the rotation that need to be navigated to get that part of the roster in better shape longterm.