DuWayne Steurer

That's a pretty wild analogy you made there, but ok. I didn't say the Brewers have a great offense. Or even a good one. Didn't even hint at it. All I said was the Cubs are hot right now, and maybe they'll cool off, as we're still (technically) in first place. That's all I said.

The reds won 12 in a row at one point (or something like that) and we're still somehow (miraculously) in front of them. I'm living with the belief that the Cubs have to cool off at some point. If not, then it wasn't meant to be.

I think the likely hood of Brian Anderson hitting a homerun, yes, was less than the Brewers scoring three runs with guys already on the corners with a .360 OBP guy at the dish. Anderson has hit one homerun since June, and has looked lost in his limited at bats since then. As Jason21 pointed out, Caratini would have been an option, or just trying to punch together a few basehits or walks.

I think it speaks a lot about the construction of the roster when we're like "yeah, Vic Caratini is the guy we'd actually want" when we're down to the last 1/3rd of the season and the division lead is on the line.

I wouldn't have argued with that. Anderson does nothing for me (and he just came back from a lengthy layoff) and I'd have been disappointed to see Monasterio pulled for Anderson.

Monasterio has a .362 OBP. When you're down, the goal (should) be to not make outs, which Monasterio does better than most of the guys on this roster. Anderson has 9 homers in almost 300 plate appearances, so it's not like we have anyone on the bench who's anything more than a moderate (at best) power threat.

Wiemer needs to take the off-season and take a long look at his approach at the plate. What worked against AAA (and AAAA) talent isn't working here.

I'm sure he's not just giving up, but he's putting Mejia in there knowing that he's saving his "better" arms that he has a better mathematical chance to win than they do today. Of course you want to try your hardest to win every day, but in a 162 game season, you have to manage your resources, not just go balls-out like every day is game 7 of the world series.

Uribe pitched 2 innings Friday, so he's not pitching 2 innings today. I"m not arguing that Mejia shouldn't be in there in a close game, but bullpen management when you have a team that doesn't score runs has to be hard. Super hard. You literally have to pick your poison, and I'm sure at this point, Counsell knew this game was a punt, more or less.

Because you can't just use him every day. Brewers (By necessity) are in close/low scoring games a lot, which makes the appearances of Payamps and Williams and Milner super valuable.

When a team can't hit it's way out of a wet paper bag, guys tend to get overly-aggressive on the bases trying to make things happen. They shouldn't, but it happens.

I'm sure they have those conversations daily. Conversely, Counsell might say to Arnold, "you've given me a roster full of .675 OPS hitters, what do you expect me to do?" GM's and managers speak daily. I'm sure lineup construction and playing time is part of those conversations.

Seems like Woody was pretty amped to start this game and burned a lot of energy early perhaps. That's alright. Just good to see him back on the mound. He'll be fine in the long run.

An alright first inning back for Woody.

I'd rather the idea of four 5-team pods or divisions so we can still get some intra division games against all the old rivals at least every 3-4 years. I don't like this. but like others have said, I understand this is how things are. I'm not a pac 10/12 fan, but it's still sad as a huge fan of college football to see a conference with such a long history and tradition be undone in such a short time by the changing landscape of tv money. it is what it is...

Unless or until MLB switches to 'bots, calls that close are gonna get missed. It is what it is. Whatever the definition of a strike "is" doesn't matter. Even good umps (if they exist) are gonna make mistakes, and that was as close a pitch as there can be.

If the Reds are out of contention to the point of trading Votto, why would they be considering Miley? In the same vein, Colin Rea is 33 and a career negative WAR pitcher. I know they shouldn't expect much for Votto, but if they're going to literally get a bag of nuts for him, why not just ride out the season, and sell some tickets and jerseys? There's no value to the Reds with guys like Rea or Miley in the short or long term future if they're not contending, so this makes no sense.

With the deadline to file closing on Friday, the Brewers and ten arbitration-eligible players agreed to contract terms. The Brewers agreed to terms with several pending arbitration-eligible players on Friday, the deadline for filing for the 2023 season. As of the filing deadline, starting pitcher, Corbin Burnes remained the only eligible player who did not agree to the terms of a new deal. The Brewers and Burnes can still agree on a one-year or multi-year deal before his arbitration hearing. Left-handed reliever Hoby Milner, who was a mainstay for the Brewer bullpen for most of 2022, agreed to a $1.025 million deal for the upcoming season. Backup catcher Victor Caratini earned a raise to $2.8 million. Keston Hiura signed for $2.2 million, so if he's used as a trade chip at this point, there's a little more cost certainty for anyone looking to acquire him. He may still be in the Brewers 2023 plans, but it's hard to see where he fits into the lineup with any regularity. Slugging first baseman, Rowdy Tellez saw his pay bumped to $4.95 million, which may very well make this season his last in Milwaukee. With Tellez being roughly a 1 WAR player, it's hard to picture the cost-conscious Brewers paying much more than this at a premium production position. Eric Lauer gets a pay bump to $5.075 million on the back of his strong 2022 campaign. Depending on how they view the rotation after the Wade Miley acquisition, Lauer's best value to the Brewers might be as a trade chip to fill in other areas of need. Likely closer, Devin Williams agreed to a $3.35 million contract. Despite the rumors of extension talk, nothing has materialized yet, and the Brewers and Willy Adames agreed to a one-year contract for $8.7 million. Of course, this doesn't preclude the Brewers and Adames from continuing to try to hammer out a multi-year deal, but with the mega-deals that have been handed out this off-season, it's become difficult to imagine the Brewers and Adames coming to terms. Infielder Luis Urias secured a $4.7 million contract. Today, Urias looks like he'll be the third baseman on opening day. With a 3.1 bWAR each of the past two seasons and entering his age 26 season, Urias is a solid bet to recreate that number. Newly acquired infielder Abraham Toro agreed to a $1.25 million contract for 2023. Lastly, starting pitcher, Brandon Woodruff agreed with the Brewers to a one-year deal for $10.8 million. With just two more years of team control, it will be interesting to see where things go from here with Woodruff, whether the team tries to extend him, deal with him and maximize their return on him, or ride him until next season. With only Corbin Burnes yet to sign now, the Brewers payroll situation comes more into focus. While it's doubtful that we'll see Burnes sign any multi-year deal, it wouldn't be unrealistic for the team and Burnes to figure out a deal before his hearing date. For payroll purposes, it would be helpful for Matt Arnold to know what kind of flexibility he might have going into the tail end of free agency while looking at any remaining nuggets. What do you think, Brewer fanatics? Arbitration signings aren't usually exciting, but sometimes we see some interesting contract numbers or last-minute multi-year deals. Did the Brewers overpay this year? What's the next move of the off-season? Let us know what you think in the comments. View full article

The Brewers' bullpen had its share of ups and downs in 2022. With the midseason trade of closer Josh Hader, the entire group saw a change in roles, and the 2023 bullpen will look a bit different. We'll take a look at the Steamer projections and more today. The Brewer bullpen took on a new look at the trade deadline in July of 2022 when All-Star closer and fan favorite Josh Hader was sent to the Padres for a package of players, including Padres closer Taylor Rogers. The Brewers pen struggled at times down the stretch, with Rogers never regaining his previous form and Matt Bush (acquired from the Texas Rangers) giving up six home runs in only 23 innings pitched. The Brewer relief corps still had its share of bright spots in 2022. Devin Williams was a dominant force after a rocky first month, posting an ERA of 1.93 and striking out 96 in just 60 2/3 innings. Hoby Milner became a useful middle-inning reliever and should figure into the Brewers' plans again in 2023. Peter Strzelecki, a 27-year-old rookie, pitched well in limited use, with an ERA under three and punching out just over ten batters per nine innings pitched. Looking ahead, however, the Brewers' pen is going to have a very different look next year. Gone (obviously) is Hader, as are Taylor Rogers. Brad Boxberger, Brent Suter, and Trevor Gott who have signed free-agent contracts elsewhere. As we stand near the end of December, what does this leave the Brewers relief corps looking like? And what do the Steamer projections think of the arms they currently have? Name Team GS G IP W L QS SV HLD H ER HR SO BB WHIP K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP WAR RA9-WAR ADP Devin Williams MIL 0 65 65.0 4 3 0 28 2 49 22 6 84 29 1.20 11.69 4.07 3.12 3.20 0.8 0.9 999.0 Matt Bush MIL 0 63 63.0 3 3 0 2 12 52 25 8 77 23 1.19 10.93 3.22 3.53 3.46 0.6 0.6 999.0 Jake Cousins MIL 0 58 58.0 3 3 0 0 10 49 24 7 67 26 1.29 10.34 4.07 3.72 3.80 0.3 0.4 999.0 Hoby Milner MIL 0 62 62.0 3 3 0 1 12 60 27 8 58 19 1.27 8.48 2.70 3.88 3.96 0.2 0.3 999.0 Joel Payamps MIL 0 54 54.0 3 3 0 0 6 53 25 7 46 18 1.31 7.72 3.03 4.11 4.23 0.2 0.1 999.0 Peter Strzelecki MIL 0 63 63.0 3 3 0 1 14 56 28 8 67 25 1.29 9.55 3.60 4.03 4.07 0.1 0.3 999.0 Jason Alexander MIL 5 43 65.0 3 4 2 0 1 70 32 8 46 21 1.39 6.32 2.90 4.40 4.47 0.1 0.1 999.0 Ethan Small MIL 3 37 52.0 3 3 1 0 1 49 25 7 48 25 1.42 8.35 4.40 4.33 4.61 0.0 0.2 999.0 Janson Junk MIL 2 14 21.0 1 1 1 0 1 21 10 3 18 6 1.29 7.55 2.54 4.39 4.44 0.0 0.1 999.0 Elvis Peguero MIL 0 20 20.0 1 1 0 0 1 19 9 2 18 8 1.34 8.09 3.38 4.01 4.08 0.0 0.0 999.0 As always, it's important to remember that these projections are middle-ground models, Devin Williams, "The Last Airbender," as affectionately named by fans, looks to slot into the closer role, as he did down the stretch in 2022. While understanding how projections work, I'm a bit surprised at the projected K/9 rate, as he's been at 14.5/9 and 14.2/9 each of the previous two seasons. It's unlikely the Brewers will spend whatever budget they have left on a closer, so it's a solid bet that Williams takes this role. Despite the relative volatility of relievers, I think the Brewers have seen enough dominance from Williams to hand him the role and expect results. Hoby Milner pitched well for the first half of 2022 but struggled a bit down the stretch. A high 80's sidearm lefty, Milner had struggled in the majors before last year but found success on the Brewers' staff. Steamer's projections for Milner see a return to form, but it remains to be seen if Milner's season was marred by wearing down or if the league has seen his offerings enough not to be fooled by his sidearm delivery. Steamer's projections for Matt Bush look solid enough, and if he can punch out 10.9/9ip and post an ERA in the mid three's, he could vie for the seventh or eighth-inning role. He'll need to get the home runs under control, as he gave up eleven in under 60 innings between Texas and Milwaukee. Jake Cousins has been very good for the Brewers when he's healthy but comes into 2023 with less than 50 major league innings under his belt. Steamer projects him conservatively for an ERA just under four but also projects 58 innings pitched. If Cousins can stay on the field and pitch well, he may also contend for a late-inning role. Newly acquired Joel Payamps should figure strongly into the mix in a middle-inning role. Payamps has been effective in the previous two seasons as a heavy ground ball pitcher, striking out less than seven per nine but having an over 2-1 ground ball to fly out ratio. Steamer projects Payamps to take a bit of a jump in his strikeout rate but conservatively projects him to have an ERA over four this season. I don't know if Steamer projections are taking the ban on the shift into account, but that definitely will hurt groundball pitchers like Payamps. Peter Strzelecki was brought up to the big club in June and pitched effectively out of the pen for the Crew, pinning down an ERA of 2.83 and striking out ten per nine innings. Strzelecki should be in the club's bullpen blueprint for 2023. Steamer projects him for an ERA just a shade over four while maintaining his strikeout rate. Depending on how he continues to develop, he could slot into a long or middle-inning role. There are other players, of course, and the Brewers will likely end up with fifteen or more players contributing in the pen. These are the guys they have now who are the most prominent contributors. As it stands, one of the more pressing needs for the Brewers for the rest of the off-season is a front-end bullpen piece. Aside from Devin Williams, there appear to be only a few who project to be dominating, a shut-down reliever who can reliably nail down a late-inning role. The Brewers' bullpens recently have had fairly well-defined roles, with Josh Hader, Devin Williams, and Brad Boxberger handling those duties. Despite these projections being "regression to the mean," nobody here stands out (and I even feel that Williams' projection is overly conservative). But it may be that someone like Cousins or Strzelecki takes a step forward and becomes that next dominant eighth-inning reliever that Williams did in 2020. What do you think, Brewer Fanatics? Is the bullpen ready to tackle 2023? How do the Steamer projections look? How do you think the roles will shake out in the coming season? Let us know in the comment section! View full article

1987 isn't *that* long ago, relatively speaking, and I think it really needs to be appreciated that Chuck Crim "averaged" 106 innings out of the pen for a five year period. That will probably never happen again.

The Brewers rotation has been the team's strength the last few seasons and looks to be so again in 2023. We'll break down what the rotation will look like in the coming season. Despite injuries to top-of-the-rotation starters Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta, the Brewers starting staff once again bolstered the team amid a season where the bullpen struggled at times, especially after ace closer Josh Hader was dealt to the Padres. The Brewers' top seven starters from 2022 remain with the team as of mid-December. Let's take a look at the projections and break things down. Name Team GS G IP W L QS SV HLD H ER HR SO BB WHIP K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP WAR RA9-WAR ADP Corbin Burnes MIL 32 32 197.0 13 10 21 0 0 161 69 21 239 55 1.10 10.92 2.51 3.15 3.03 4.9 4.8 999.0 Brandon Woodruff MIL 31 31 182.0 12 10 18 0 0 156 70 23 209 51 1.13 10.29 2.50 3.47 3.39 3.7 3.8 999.0 Aaron Ashby MIL 21 37 127.0 8 7 10 0 1 110 48 12 138 53 1.28 9.78 3.76 3.43 3.51 2.1 2.5 999.0 Freddy Peralta MIL 26 26 138.0 9 9 11 0 0 119 61 19 150 52 1.24 9.80 3.41 3.99 4.04 2.0 2.1 999.0 Eric Lauer MIL 28 28 156.0 9 10 12 0 0 148 74 24 150 59 1.32 8.69 3.39 4.30 4.42 1.3 1.8 999.0 Adrian Houser MIL 13 61 117.0 6 7 5 0 1 122 58 14 88 47 1.44 6.76 3.62 4.46 4.49 0.5 0.4 999.0 Jason Alexander MIL 5 43 65.0 3 4 2 0 1 70 32 8 46 21 1.39 6.32 2.90 4.40 4.47 0.1 0.1 999.0 Robert Gasser MIL 2 2 9.0 1 1 1 0 0 9 5 1 8 4 1.38 7.69 3.53 4.52 4.71 0.0 0.1 999.0 Ethan Small MIL 3 37 52.0 3 3 1 0 1 49 25 7 48 25 1.42 8.35 4.40 4.33 4.61 0.0 0.2 999. Corbin Burnes was once again the unquestioned ace of the staff; after winning the National League Cy Young in 2021, he followed up in 2022 by leading the senior circuit with 243 strikeouts while sporting a 2.94 E.R.A, 3.14 FIP, to go along with his 12-8 record, while finishing seventh in the Cy Young voting. The Brewers are getting close to a point where they'll have to decide about his near-term future in Milwaukee, but for 2023, they can ride it out and hold onto Burnes if they're in or close to a playoff spot. General Manager Matt Arnold's hand isn't forced just yet, but trading Burnes could become a reality if the Brewers fade from playoff contention by mid-summer. Steamer projections have solid confidence in a follow-up season from Burnes, with an ERA just a shade over three and projecting almost 240 strikeouts. Brandon Woodruff played a fine second fiddle to Burnes in 2022, going 13-4 with a 3.05 ERA (3.08 FIP) along with 190 strikeouts in just 153 1/3 innings pitched. Woodruff spent a few weeks on the disabled list in June and returned strong, giving up two or fewer earned runs in nine of his next 11 starts. After a five earned run hiccup against the Diamondbacks, he finished out September by going six or more innings and allowing two or fewer runs in six straight starts. A healthy Woodruff looks like a safe bet to be a quality number two again in 2023, with Steamer projections of a 3.43 E.R.A and 209 strikeouts. Like Burnes, however, the Brewers have some tough decisions about Woody's future in Milwaukee, regarding whether they will trade, keep, or even try to extend him. Freddy Peralta pitched well to start the year but spent a fair amount of time on the disabled list. Steamer projections have Peralta notched at 26 starts, 138 innings pitched, and a 3.99 ERA and 2.0 WAR. Peralta has pitched well when healthy and, entering his age 27 season, should be reaching his peak, so those numbers seem on the conservative side, but Peralta has to get and stay healthy. Peralta was incredible in 2021, striking out nearly 200 batters and posting an ERA under three in 27 starts, so there is potential to be a dominant mid-rotation pitcher. Peralta's strikeout rate fell off quite a bit in 2022, which may be concerning, so it'll be something to watch and see where that trends in 2023. Steamer doesn't project much more of a falloff in that category, but it's still concerning to see Peralta regress in that area. Steamer projections look at Aaron Ashby as a pitcher who will take a step forward this season. Ashby struggled at times last year but also suffered from some extreme bad luck. Season Team Level GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% SIERA xFIP- xFIP 2018 MIL R 2.00 22.4% 51.7% 25.9% 6.7% 20.0% 39.7% 20.7% 39.7% 4.89 2018 MIL A 2.13 23.5% 52.0% 24.5% 8.3% 4.2% 37.4% 26.3% 36.4% 2.25 2019 MIL A 1.43 16.8% 49.0% 34.2% 15.7% 7.8% 38.2% 22.8% 39.0% 3.13 2019 MIL A+ 1.52 19.3% 48.6% 32.0% 36.2% 1.7% 46.0% 20.3% 33.7% 4.10 2021 MIL AAA 5.69 21.3% 66.9% 11.8% 6.3% 25.0% 44.8% 20.3% 35.0% 2.26 2021 MIL MLB 2.45 13.8% 61.3% 25.0% 0.0% 20.0% 10.2% 100.0% 42.0% 30.9% 27.2% 18.5% 55.6% 25.9% 3.18 72 3.05 2022 MIL MLB 2.17 16.9% 56.9% 26.2% 6.6% 19.7% 12.7% 33.3% 40.5% 34.8% 24.7% 17.9% 54.7% 27.4% 3.48 83 3.29 Total - - - MLB 2.23 16.2% 57.8% 25.9% 5.2% 19.8% 12.1% 42.9% 40.8% 34.0% 25.2% 18.0% 54.9% 27.1% 3.41 80 3.24 Ashby has an above-average strikeout rate for a starter (10.6 per 9 innings), has a solid groundball-to-flyball ratio, and doesn't allow much hard contact. The crazy outlier in his data set is that a whopping 19.7% of flyballs hit off of Ashby went for home runs in 2022. That's almost double the major league average, and probably (hopefully) an anomaly, and something that reverts to the mean in the future. Ashby's ERA this past season was 4.44, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 4.06, and his xFIP (fielding independent pitching normalized for an average home run rate) was 3.29. Ashby's a good pitcher. There are control issues with the walks but there was also a bit of bad luck. Here's to a big bounce back in 2023 and Steamer appears to agree. Eric Lauer started hot for the Brewers in 2022. He was so good through early June that he was referred to as the Brewers' "fourth ace," deservedly so. As all good things must, his hot streak ended, and Lauer returned to earth. He still put together a solid campaign, winning 11 games against seven losses with a 3.69 ERA while striking out a batter per inning. Lauer has been talked about as a trade chip and asset that could bring some much-needed hitting talent to Milwaukee. Still, until one of the younger pitchers like Ashby, Gasser, or Small forces Lauer out of the picture, it's tough to see how a number four guy with Lauer's stuff will be removed from the rotation. Eventually, he may price himself out of the Brewers' plans but for now, having a pitcher at the bottom of the rotation with Lauer's makeup is a luxury most baseball teams do not enjoy. Steamer projects a relatively large jump in ERA for Lauer this coming season, despite putting up a 3.19 and 3.69 ERA each of the previous two seasons. It'll be interesting to see how Lauer performs this coming year after having a stellar start to the season, followed by inconsistent ball down the stretch. Adrian Houser could be the odd man if the Brewers go with a five-man rotation. Houser's ERA jumped by a full one and a half runs to 4.73, while his FIP actually dropped from 4.33 to 4.21. Steamer projects him to be adequately mediocre again in 2023. Houser isn't a bad guy to have around as a long bullpen piece or a starter to run through the rotation four or five times if someone hits the disabled list for a few weeks, but it seems like the league has seen his stuff enough times to know what he has to offer. Houser may still have some trade value for a team looking for a back-end starter, so like Lauer, it will be interesting to see how the rest of the off-season plays out with a few of these players. The rest of the starter depth is about what you'll expect out of number seven starter material. Jason Alexander (no, not THAT Jason Alexander), a rookie at age 29, had a few successful weeks filling in for injured starters, and then when the league had some looks at him, it became clear why he was a rookie at age 29. Still, he was serviceable for a short time and may fill that emergency starter role again in 2023. Neither Ethan Small nor Robert Gasser figures to play any significant role in the rotation in 2023, but Steamer has each of them making a few starts. Small profiles as more of a reliever at this point, but the Brewers have made no indication yet that they aren't going to try to have him stick at starter. If things go wildly out of control on the injury front, we could see Small or Gasser making a start or two or possibly see a September call-up, but aside from that, I wouldn't figure to see either of these prospects see significant time in the rotation. So, what do you think, Brewer Fanatics? Based on what we see today, the Brewers will "run it back" with the same rotation. Is that the right approach? Do the Steamer projections look about right to you? How does the rotation stack up? Let us know in the comment section! View full article

If we get an .850 - 860 OPS and 100 catcher starts from Contreras, plus some DH starts, I'm sure most folks will be over the moon. I wouldn't be disappointed with anything around/over an .800 OPS with 20+ homer power.