Harold Hutchison

I'd feel better with Lucroy/Pina than Pina/Kratz or Pina/Nottingham... Now, I worry we gut the farm for Realmuto, or pay through the nose for Grandal...

No, I hope not. Shaw is the one guy I would want to get to a long term deal - especially given his performance. The Crew then has options: 1. If Erceg develops, they can move Shaw for a "Yelich light" haul of prospects. 2. They can move Erceg for help elsewhere 3. Slide Shaw to first, and move Aguilar if Aguilar doesn't go for a long-term deal. 4. Move Erceg to first if Aguilar has to be moved because he won't take a long-term deal.

Well, Nelson Cruz is quite the DH...

Broxton was still 1.6 WAR with a sub-Uecker line - because of his defense. I generally default to trading defense for offense (I still think Ryan Braun should play third at least against tough lefties), but Broxton is one of those I would make an exception for. Gamel is better than Thames because his skill set is best where the Brewers have been weakest. He is also marginally able to play center field, which Thames can't. Now, the Brewers could decide to go with Aguilar at third, Shaw at second, and Thames at first, but the defense might be... adventurous. The Brewers will need to deal Thames at this point, hopefully for a Jason Rogers or Adam Lind type of return.

Fine. Then Choi is the LHB 1B and Thames PH's and plays some RF against RHP's. The point remains that literally every single one of them would have been better options than Braun when you factor in salary, trade value, availability, and/or flexibility. All things considered, he would literally be the last one I would choose for a roster spot for, behind Santana, Broxton, Choi, Davis (for trade value), Aguilar (nearly cut in ST so Braun could move to 1B), and probably Thames. Basically all those guys have been pushed to the back burner in way or another for him in recent years. It's asinine. And no, you don't have to hate him like I do to understand the economics of it or the productivity/injury issues. On the contrary, I think you have to be biased in favor of him to deny it. I get what you're saying but just don't see it the same way. We just disagree and that's alright. But seriously, Choi sucked in MIL and gave the Brewers little reason to believe he'd do what he ended up doing for Tampa. If you saw his Tampa productivity coming, you may be about the only one. If he just needed more PT to get his bat going in the bigs again, that opportunity wasn't going to come in MIL unless about everyone in front of him went in a major slump and/or got hurt since he was the 25th guy on the roster and was only there until someone better came along to take his place, and that didn't happen. He was the 25th man on the roster, but a .781 OPS and a 104 OPS+ kinda disputes the notion he sucked. Aguilar, Thames, and Shaw were ahead of him at 1B. Santana, Braun, Yelich, and Thames were ahead of him at corner OF. Brad Miller didn't work out for the Crew, but Choi was decent and caught on the outside of a roster crunch. Every GM with two functioning neurons knew it. If Miller had performed just at the level he'd performed at while in Tampa during 2018 (.751 OPS, 107 OPS+) and held down shortstop after Arcia was stinking up the joint, I think the tune would have been different.

I'd go six years: Bonus: $4 million 2019: $6 million 2020: $7 million 2021: $8 million 2022: $9 million 2023: $10 million 2024: $10 million

I think this is spot on. Perez has value to the team in the versatile bench role that he's designed to play at a modest cost. It's when the cost is no longer modest or the role involves starting at one position that he's not the player you want in that role. I have zero doubt that Perez is valuable to this team, but it isn't as an expected starter. But what price do you place on having Perez, and being able to keep 13 pitchers? He's a massive bonus in roster flexibility.

Agreed. Gamel does provide some options and decent backup. More importantly, he buys a year of time for Ray and Stokes in AAA, and adds roster flexibility. Broxton, interestingly, is a huge bounce-back candidate. His BABIP was .218 in 2018. The prior two years, it was .373 and .323. That, plus some good OBP skills, are more worth keeping. Plus, there's that defense late in games. Braun-Cain-Yelich may be a good outfield most of the time, but a Yelich-Broxton-Cain outfield is arguably one of the best defensively in baseball, for those who value that (I like Broxton's good power-speed number, myself). Broxton as the 4th OF/PR, and Gamel as the corner OF/1B will go nicely with Perez, Spangenberg, and Kratz/Nottingham on the bench. Really, at this point, the Brewers just need to deal Thames for some lottery tickets. An Adam Lind-type deal would be ideal, but I'd settle for a Jason Rogers-type deal as well.

The Reds are a mirage, IMO. Much depends on Puig and Kemp not falling apart, and Wood being a mainstay of the rotation. Post-2019 they could very well collapse. The Cubs are just patching and patching with free agents - and it's not working that well. The Cardinals look strong for 2019. The Pirates... they're in a tear-down mode. Oddly enough, the Brewers look the strongest over the long haul in the division. 2019 may be a year to take a step back to secure that 2020-2024 dominance, but they could set themselves up nicely if they use 2019 to get the young guns (Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta) into dominant shape, break in Hiura, and to move some assets (Nelson, Davies, Anderson, Thames, Aguilar) for prospects to reload the system.

Certainly a valid point of view. The Cubs have a LH dominant pitching staff, too. I get it. Still, MLB is something like 70% RH Starting Pitchers, and Stearns specifically mentioned wanting to get another LH bat. Now, maybe he is just saying that and the main reasons he wanted Gamel is because of being able to option him and the lower cost/more control. adambr, I always enjoy your point of view. You are right, we need more RH bats, too... In general we would benefit from more offense all around if we are going to take that next step. I think this is a small step in that direction. As much as I liked Domingo he really was a bit of a liability defensively, too Hi 3and2, thanks for the kind words, I almost always agree with your POVs. You are right to say that as far as the regular season goes, typically we get matched up against RHP. With that said it seems to me that we struggle to match up against LHP heavy teams. It really hurt us in the NLCS in my opinion, and I'd like to see us with a better chance if we get back. I guess my point is -- our best bat, Yelich, was a 160 OPS+ guy, and Shaw is generally around a 120+. Aguilar might settle in around that same 120+, but other than that, our best RH bats, Braun, Cain, you're probably talking 110+ OPS bats. Above average, but nothing that is going to strike fear in a World Series caliber lefty heavy staff. Someone like Goldschmidt probably is a big difference maker, but he's obviously only a bandaid and that ship has sailed anyway. It's the main reason I really wanted Wilson Ramos, but it sounds like he had his heart set on New York anyway. Keston Hiura will be up and playing 2B at some point this season. There is still plenty of time for Stearns to add a RH bat at 2B/3B for the short term.

Same here. For the good of the team, they need to get their Venezuelan players out of there.

I like Gamel - played all three OF spots in majors, plus some 1B. Real interesting is how he picked up his walk rate from 2017 to 2018. That is a sign he can make improvements. Kid brother of Mat Gamel. The real question of how this deal turns out falls on Zavolas. If, like Suter, he emerges as a solid MLB contributor, the Crew wins the trade. Plus, this also means Thames or Aguilar will be on the move. Can't see the Crew keeping both with Gamel on the roster.

High-80s fastball with movement, late round pick out of Harvard, multiple breaking pitches. Sounds like anyone we know? A right-handed version of The Raptor?

You guys have a lot of faith that someone who has played a grand total of 96 games above Class A ball (and not one game at the AAA level) is going to be significant contributor in 2019. I won't be surprised if Hiura spends all of 2019 in AAA. Maybe I'm stubbornly sticking to my line of thinking from around early May 2018, when Hiura 1st started seeing the field and wasn't just DH-ing in A+ ball - I mentioned then that if his throwing arm proved to be healthy and he held his own defensively at 2B, Hiura would find himself in Milwaukee before the 2019 season ended. I'm not saying I expect Hiura to be up by mid June 2019 and hitting 3rd in the Brewers' lineup - I'm saying it's kind of naive to think the best 2B options available on the FA market are going to take 1 or 2 year deals from the Brewers when everyone knows the future of that position is Hiura. And, that future could arrive at some point next season. If he isn't in Milwaukee in 2019, he will be in 2020. Guys like Lowrie and LeMahieu are either looking for way more years, way more annual $, or a combination of both than what I'd want the Brewers to spend. They are looking for a Zobrist-like FA contract or something very close to it. You left the last part of my previous post off your quote - the part where I mentioned looking at a guy like Tulo makes a ton of sense for the 2019 Brewers. I'd much rather take a 1 yr veteran flyer on a guy like Tulo - who you can pay league minimum - to add to the MIF mix for 2019 instead of exhausting a large chunk of remaining payroll budget to entice one of the other FA options to come here for 1-2 years (Lowrie, LeMahieu, Dozier, etc). If the Brewers upgrade at C and add a pitcher of significance, and then still have budget available to bring in one of the top remaining FA, I'd be fine with it. Maybe that will be the case if there aren't other teams willing to spend significantly at 2B due to their own budgetary limitations or perceived better in-house options. Tulo for one year, plus a team option is a good idea, IMO. If he works out well, he can still be an asset. If not, how much would a buyout cost the Crew?

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A big leap of faith Thames missed time with injury in 2018, and then had spotty playing time because Jesus did emerge. I don't think a 2019 rebound is out of the question - and if the Brewers play their cards right, they could deal Aguilar at a high this offseason, and a hot Thames could be moved mid-season.

I find myself wondering... after the successful rejuvenation of Miley, could the same happen with Lucroy thanks to the Brewers' analytics and the tech they are using? Would come cheap, no pick gets lost...

Dillard was someone I thought would be a very durable starter for the Crew... the guy did well in Brevard County (find a pitcher who didn't), but what was notable was how many CGs he notched. A real workhorse. Will miss him as one of the guys I thought would be great...

I understand the argument, but there are definitely more catchers available than jobs for catchers. I tend to agree with a poster above that half the league probably called on Realmuto, but only a handful are seriously pursuing at this point. Of the Mets, Nationals, White Sox, and Astros...who have filled the catcher position and are basically OUT on Realmuto...all but the White Sox were seriously in pursuit of him at some point in the last year. At this point, the Dodgers, Reds, Braves, and maybe the Brewers/Red Sox/Padres are in on Realmuto. The Dodgers will probably end up bringing back Grandal, the Reds will probably stick with Barnhart, and the Braves historically don't make bad trades and probably won't meet the Marlins asking price. Also factor in at least 5 or 6 solid/unspectacular options available in FA besides Grandal...yes, the market for Realmuto is shrinking quickly. Also, how many teams will get frustrated with the Marlins for not budging on the asking price? As the trade market shrinks, the Marlins get fewer and fewer buyers. I remember reading about one football player who was picked far later in the NFL draft than he expected. He also had been accepted by Harvard Law School. So, one day, he went to work out - and his sweatshirt read, Harvard Law School. The NFL team that picked him gave him a much bigger bonus than other late-round picks got. Why? Because he had more than one buyer. Time is NOT on the Marlins' side. The more time that goes by, the less they get for Realmuto - and they may end up having him in Miami and then having much less in return. If the market decreases, Stearns can and should wait out the Marlins. Maybe it's not a bad idea to have another free-agent catcher (Lucroy?) come in. I wonder what miracles the Brewers' analytics team could work with him. I bet pitchers aren't the only players who can be rejuvenated...

The Cleveland model is something to emulate, and Stearns was a big part of the successful Houston turnaround. They went from losing 100+ games in 3 of four seasons from 2011-2014 to making the playoffs three out of four seasons from 2015-2018. Plus, the Brewers have had reasonable success since 2005. There was only one 90-loss season from 2005 to 2018, and that was 2015. There was an 87-loss season in 2006, 2010 was 77-85, and 2016 had a 73-89 record - none good seasons, but not horrible ones. Then, 2017 happened, and 2018. There was an 88-loss season in 2013, but the Crew rebounded in 2014 to a 82-80 record. Over the last 14 years, the Brewers have averaged 81.7 wins. These have not been the 1993-2002 doldrums. There have been decent teams most years. The question is how to sustain the success. IMO, the key to that is to get more international bonus money, and stock up on the CB picks. Deal Thames to the Rays to get their CB-A pick. Deal Anderson for San Diego's CB-B pick, SS Owen Miller and Eduardo . We'll send Houser, Taylor, and Nottingham, Arizona, but cough up those two CB-B picks, and $3 million in international bonus money. Cody Ponce is Rule V eligible - hey Baltimore, take him, we'll take the CB-B pick and $500K in international money. Pull that off, and get picks 28, 36, 66, 72, 74, 75, and 78 in the draft, get an extra $3.5 million in international bonus money, and now I think the Crew has a good chance. No, there may not be a Braun or a Hirua, but I see seven chances to get the next Corbin Burnes, Troy Stokes, Jake Gatewood, Monte Harrison, Mitch Haniger, Zach Brown, Aaron Ashby, or Tristan Lutz.

Olivares is a power-speed OF wh had double figures in doubles, triples, homers, and steals. Miller is a decent SS (may move to second due to arm issues) who hit .335 between the Northwest and Midwest leagues. Not much power, but a spray-hitter from line to line. Due in 2021.

Padres get: RHP Chase Anderson RHP Jacob Barnes Brewers get: SS Owen Miller OF Eduardo Olivares CB-B pick 74 This is kind of a change of scenery deal for Anderson, who's gopher ball tendencies won't work well in Miller Park (plus, the young guns have passed him by). Barnes looks to get crowded out, and I think he is out of options.

Brewers get: LHP Robbie Ray CB-B pick 75 CB-B pick 78 $1.5 million in international bonus money Diamondbacks get: RHP Adrian Houser OF Tyrone Taylor C Jacob Nottingham

Between shifts, the sense that the Brewers can replicate what they did with Miley, and his GB rate, I think he could be a poor man's Hader. Losing the pick does smart - and I'd rather be the one stockpiling CB picks in a given year rather than dealing them away, even for what I think is a clear diamond in the rough. I'd rather have dealt Nate Griep instead, if only to try and keep that pick.

I can't fathom the Crew not protecting him. Let Cedeno/Jennings go to free up the spot, but this was just poor roster management. Does it still qualify as poor roster management now that Olczak wasn't selected or is it possible Stearns & company just had the market accurately gauged all along? I think it was an unnecessary risk that thankfully didn't come back to bite the Crew.