Harold Hutchison

Someone who isn't as good as Wilson?

Nelson and Davies do have minor-league options left... given that they missed most or all of 2018, it might not be a bad idea to have one or both in San Antonio for a bit...

There is a reason I want to see the Crew lock Perez up to a multi-year extension. Maybe he is just a .730 OPS player with the bat. But he is versatile. He plays all for IF positions, all three OF positions, which lets you carry an extra pitcher. Plus, he himself is an extra pitcher as well. His only real weakness is he doesn't draw walks, but that's because as you noted, he is probably trying to make something happen. I've been on record saying I'd do a five or six-year deal. Long? Maybe, but Perez is still young, and right now, he'd be pretty cheap (maybe in the $3 to $4 million range). More importantly, once he feels secure - he'll be staying in Milwaukee - I bet his bat might improve.

He's tumbled down the rankings since he was basically first drafted. A starting pitching prospect who has yet to log 100 IP in a season after 5 years of development stops becoming a starting pitching prospect. He's got talent, but the combo of nagging injuries and seemingly poor conditioning/body type are red flags that can't be ignored. I know many posters really wished he was still in the Brewers' organization, but he simply got passed by too many other pitchers currently on the 40 man roster. Baltimore should actually give him a decent shot at realizing his potential to be a MLB pitcher, hoping for Ortiz that he can put it together - it just wasn't going to happen fast enough as a member of the Brewers. Ortiz may be destined for the bullpen. Perhaps his ceiling was more Josh Hader than ace starter.

Brewers 94 Cardinals 90 Cubs 83 Reds 81 Pirates 73 Brewers have strengthened a weak position in C, and Hiura solidifies 2B by June 15. Cardinals will be second, with good improvements, but they'll fall short. Cubs have too many bad contracts, and I don't see Darvish/Quintana rebounding enough. Reds find DJ can only work so much magic given their pitching talent level. Pirates worst off, but will play spoiler.

Just because Perez starts at second doesn’t mean he has to finish there. True, but still, having him on the bench make for more flexibility in the double switch.

Really? You must really like Spangenberg, because its hard for me to see "far better" than what they had in 2018, which was Villar (who had a very good season to his name) and Sogard (who was good in 2017) along with Perez. If you are comparing Villar straight up to Spangenberg, I would have to think you would take Villar. Villar at least had MLB success on his resume. After 2018, Villar's success seems to be illusory - a one-year flash in the pan. Villar looks better because of Schoop's struggles in Milwaukee. I think playing Spangenberg/Perez in a platoon will probably be a little better than average. The hard part is, at least against lefties, the Brewers will have their most versatile asset in the lineup instead of on the bench.

Only if he is injured and on the DL.

I'd want at least ten years, and would be willing to go $50 million.

He has the mutual option if he decides he wants to give Milwaukee another go in 2020. If the 2019 Crew does well, maybe he comes back for 2020. Two years of a .850-.900 OPS and 30-35 homers could have him get a nice deal as a 1B/C/DH for an AL team.

[sarcasm]That would be third base.[/sarcasm] Seriously, they'd get more offense by using Aguilar at third, Shaw at second, and Thames at first.

What is Cots? I was using Sportrac, is that less reliable? I've always known it as the most reliable source for salary info. It's now part of Baseball Prospectus. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl-west/arizona-diamondbacks/ OK, thanks. I took a look, and it looks like my guesses were on the money in terms of what was deferred. Based on what I'm seeing at Cots and Sportrac, I don't think Greinke's deal would be a killer for Milwaukee. He'd be closer to the 2017 version of Anderson than the 2018 version, plus the mentoring for Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta... I think it's worth doing, even for the extra $12 million a year. Especially if Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff go from solid MLB rotation assets to borderline #1/#2 starters.

I hope he is good/healthy enough to make the 25-man on Opening Day. It would be a nice problem for the Brewers to have. That said, if he isn't 100% by opening day, the Brewers should be willing to send him to San Antonio to get back to form. He has the option(s), the Brewers should use them.

Maybe he is also looking at that. I just hope he does nothing irreversible. If this new approach doesn't work in spring training, go back to the old one.

all of the details for annual breakdowns are found on Cots. What is Cots? I was using Sportrac, is that less reliable?

This will be an interesting development.

I wouldn't necessarily assume that Nelson will get thrown into the rotation opening day, or that Davies/Woodruff get spots over Burnes/Peralta. I know it seems like Davies SHOULD get the spot, but he's also a back of the rotation soft tossing RHP...pitchers like that shouldn't be blocking someone like Burnes in my opinion. I could understand putting Peralta in AAA to work on some things, but I can't see Davies getting a spot over Burnes. Since Nelson and Davoes still have options... they could be sent to AAA. Nelson could get back into shape there (the long layoff will likely mean he needs time to shake off the rust). Davies... I'm not opposed to sending him to AAA if a Chacin-Anderson-Burnes-Woodruff-Peralta rotation is the best the Crew can send out. He did miss a lot of 2018...

If I'm the Diamondbacks, I wouldn't even counter that offer. I'd take it just "as is" in about 1 nanosecond. Only giving up Smith while not having to eat any of Greinke's salary (unless you want to count the 2.5 million owed to Albers which would be a fair assessment) and getting an immediate MLB arm to replace him in the rotation, I'd take that no problem. This would be a good, solid trade for Arizona. Yeah, I was looking at this and thinking the same thing. Yerzy, Young, Bickford, Grisham, Felicano - those guys are all filler. Call that a wash. Anderson gets $6.5M - but he's a serviceable back of the rotation arm that can be cut loose in the future if he falters with minimal financial commitments. Albers is $2.5M of nothing Greinke is owned $95.5M over the next three years. It grows to $97.5M if he is traded due to a $2M trade bonus. Some people quote $104.5M, but that's including signing bonus money - which would be paid by the original signing team (the Dbacks). $32.5M of Greinke's salary from 2019-21 is deferred - but we won't worry about that for calculating overall value. I'm guessing it drives down the overall numbers a few million. Anyhow, for ease of calculation - let's say Greinke is owed $95.5M. Albers takes that down to $93M. Greinke's real value is probably more in the 3-year/$60-70M range. That means you're paying around $25M for Pavin Smith. Smith is an interesting asset. The Brewers loved him in 2016 - and very well could have taken him over Hiura if he had been available. But the guy's star has dimmed. He hasn't developed much power, and he hasn't hit as well as expected. At best he's a borderline Top 100 guy - but more like a 150 type guy. That - plus his potential (which is still intriguing) - make him maybe a $10M asset or so. In the end, you're way overpaying for Smith. We'd definitely need more. Perhaps JosephC and his calculating wizardry would come up with a better idea of a deal. Yerzy is, IMO, a potential bat-first catcher and a big upgrade over Feliciano. MLB Pipeline has his ETA as 2021. He's also left-handed, so he'd have a good shot at doing pretty well in Miller Park/AmFam Field. Young is a back-end of the rotation starter, but could be better off in the bullpen. Either way, even though he got shelled a bit at Reno, I consider him to have a better shot at contributing in the majors than Bickford. Smith is replacing Trent Grisham. He has good OBP skills, and maybe the stats guys can figure out what is up.

Clancy, I think you're likely mistaken. The Brewers wouldn't logically be on the hook for the first 3 years of the deferred money. Those years are Dbacks responsibility unless they asked us to cover it. I did divvy that up, based on the details of Greinke's contract at https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/zack-greinke-407/ - but I double-checked. The $62.5 million is deferred over the six years. I'm going to assume $10.5 million deferred from 2019, and $11 million for 2020 and 2021. I am assuming that the first three years had $10 million deferred each. 2019 - the AAV is 34.5 million. The bonus, I assume, has already been paid, so we're really looking at $31.5 million. The deferred salary puts the Crew as owing $21 million. Since I am sending Anderson and Albers to Arizona, that's $9 million off the books in 2019 - so the net increase is actually at $12 million. 2020 - The AAV is $35 million. Bonus (paid by D-Backs) takes it down to $32 million. $11 million deferred takes it down further to $21 million. Anderson's team option (which I assume would be picked up - especially if he rebounded from 2018) is $8.5 million. Net increase in payroll is $12.5 million. 2021 - The AAV is $35 million. Bonus (paid by D-Backs) takes it down to $32 million. $11 million deferred takes it down further to $21 million. Anderson's option in 2021 is for $9.5 million. That puts the net increase down to $11.5 million. 2022-2026, the Brewers owe $32.5 million in deferred salary over those five years - or $6.5 million a year. I am not saying Greinke isn't expensive. But compared to what the Crew would already be spending with arby increases, etc., the deal is not outrageous. Plus, if the Crew can pull off a good holdup in terms of prospects in exchange for taking the entire deal off Arizona's hands... they can mitigate the arby raise hits by dealing Pina/Aguilar, and replacing with Yerzy and Smith. I think the Crew gets no worse than Anderson 2018 with Greinke, but more likely, it's something akin to the Anderson of 2017 for 2019 and 2020. And if the D-Backs don't give up prospects, they'll give up cash. Maybe they just take up all the deferred money. But when you think of the value Greinke will add, not just to the numbers, but also as someone who could be an example for Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta... I think it's worth the money. This isn't going to be a Matt Garza type of situation. Greinke seemed to like Milwaukee when he was last here.

This draft class has been a bit underwhelming. A lot of injuries. From the guys taken after Ray, you have Kirilloff. Whitley, Trammell, Kieboom all looking pretty good. But even the guys picked before Corey aren't tearing things up (outside of Senzel). Groome was the big wild card - but the Brewers were never going to draft the guy. There were issues that the team did not want to do with regarding the guy. And he TJ last May and probably won't be back until mid-summer. The 2016 draft was a bad one to have a high pick in (if that's really a bad thing). It was weak at the top but had some solid depth. Ray, despite being a college bat, was (and still is) a work in progress. The team knew that. I was really happy about his 2018 performance, but the late swoon was really disappointing. He had a .262 BA on July 29 - then saw his BA plummet over the next 5-6 weeks. If he could have maintained that BA to the season's end - he would have really made some people take note. Still, 66 xbh and 60 walks is pretty sweet. If he can even hit .250ish - he can be really valuable. Maybe not an all star - but still valuable. A lot of people will be watching. I always thought he could be a left-handed Keon Broxton at worst. K issues, yes, but speed, decent OBP skills, power, and defense. And being left-handed, he'll post better numbers than Broxton simply because there are far more righties than lefties on pitching staffs.

I'd actually call it about six weeks' worth of games, assuming that there are off days (schedule) and days where a player is rested. Braun has averaged just under 130 games a season. I think LA will regret this deal.

That's a very good point. I guess theoretically, it would be best to have guys in AAA ready to fill in. At 3b for example, if Shaw went down...it would be best to have Erceg ready to get called up and fill in and be better than Perez. I understand it's completely unrealistic to have a better guy at every spot. Perez will probably have to be the best backup option at SS and 2b at minimum...and possibly 3b. He'll probably be the 3rd best option at every other position besides pitcher. There is an additional argument that Dubon will be ready to steal Perez job from him at some point this year...and Perez will be off the roster and completely replaced by Dubon to open 2020. I don't quite buy that. Perez's positional flexibility has been a 75 on the 20-80 scale, IMO. I'd try to sign him to some king of extension (4 years, $12 million). He's not just a supersub for double switches, cover for an injury, etc. He lets the Crew keep 13 pitchers on their roster with that flexibility and serves as a 14th pitcher.

I agree - which is why I have no problem acquiring him. Not only does he become arguably the best starter on the staff, but he may be a good mentor for Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta (among others). The Crew's had them to a point where they all won't be super two, and the better they do... the higher the return if they end up being dealt down the road. Besides that... I'd be happy to take his full salary provided the Diamondbacks give the Crew some prospects. Diamondbacks get: RHP Chase Anderson RHP Matt Albers C Mario Feliciano OF Trent Grisham RHP Phil Bickford Brewers get: RHP Zach Greinke C Andy Yerzy LHP Alex Young 1B Pavin Smith Well I'd be happy if Jeff Bezos would just take 90 pct off everything I ordered from Amazon...but I think just like Mark A might have something to say about adding ANOTHER 34 million dollars to this payroll, Bezos may have a problem with this. Also...I don't think this serves the D-backs. The Brewers weren't looking to give up prospects for someone to just take Braun when were started our rebuild. I think it makes far more sense to not make this trade, but if it DID happen, I think the D-backs would rather eat some money and get something back than actually give away prospects which only delays they're rebuilding. Especially one of their top young prospects in Smith, the guy who's likey slated to take over for Goldschmidt, Yerzy's a catching prospect that has a big upside and Young is an MLB ready lefty. This makes very little sense for either team. I have a pet peeve with people who speak in absolutes, but I'm ALMOST positive this wouldn't happen. This totally hamstrings the Brewers the next 3 years while they have Yelich in his prime and Cain at the end of his from doing anything without dumping salary. And while you'll probably respond by saying Braun's contract will be gone in 2 years, the young guys on the Brewers and their raises through arbitration will negate those savings. Unless the Brewers are going to be pushing their payroll up to the 170 million region...which I find pretty unlikely(about as Likely as the Angels waive Trout after a poor opening month)...this seems totally unrealistic other than on a video game where you don't have to worry about real life finances. Well, the D-Backs can either fork over money or fork over prospects to get rid of Greinke's contract. I'd rather have the prospects. If the Crew gets top prospects and Greinke's contract, the financial hit is mitigated. But the hit isn't as big as some think. Plus, a bit of Greinke's money ($62.5 million of the original $206 million) is deferred to the 2022-2026 timeframe. That means the Crew is paying about $24 million each of those years. So, the 2019-2021 salary comes to about $25 million a year. A lot, but I proposed dealing Anderson and Albers. Their 2019 salaries come to $9 million. So that is off the board. Anderson also had an $8.5 million team option for 2020 off the books and a $9.5 million team option for 2021 off the books. In 2021, Braun's deal is off the books as well if he doesn't exercise a $15 million mutual option. That takes the net salaries for 2019 and 2020 to $16 million and $16.5 million, respectively. The 2021 salary could be covered by Braun not taking the mutual option and Anderson's 2021 team option. Then, from 2022 to 2026, the Crew gives Greinke what amounts to roughly $6.5 million a year. So, yeah, I'd tell Stearns to take the full contract, and see what prospects he can get in return. It's almost a no-lose scenario.

I agree - which is why I have no problem acquiring him. Not only does he become arguably the best starter on the staff, but he may be a good mentor for Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta (among others). The Crew's had them to a point where they all won't be super two, and the better they do... the higher the return if they end up being dealt down the road. Besides that... I'd be happy to take his full salary provided the Diamondbacks give the Crew some prospects. Diamondbacks get: RHP Chase Anderson RHP Matt Albers C Mario Feliciano OF Trent Grisham RHP Phil Bickford Brewers get: RHP Zach Greinke C Andy Yerzy LHP Alex Young 1B Pavin Smith

Same here. The Brewers had already denied Stearns an interview with another team. This move will make it near impossible for another team to grab Stearns before the end of his new contract. Hopefully, that contract is at least ten years... if not more.