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Harold Hutchison

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Everything posted by Harold Hutchison

  1. My first choice would be Kikuchi - going 5 years, $75 million at most ($5 million bonus, $10 million in 2019 and 2020, $15 million in 2021 and 2022, and $20 million in 2023). After that, Miley at 3 years, $18 million with an option for a fourth year at $12 million makes a ton of sense.
  2. Because, the shift made the Brewers a contender, and Major League Baseball wants its playoffs to be in the big markets. It's the same with the way they're messing with draft compensation over the years. It's become less and less costly for a big-market team to sign free agents. In essence, Milwaukee, Kansas City, and a few other teams we can all name are really to be an advanced farm team for the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals, and a couple others that we can probably name off the tops of our heads. MLB doesn't like having Milwaukee as the team with the best record in the NL. So, they're gonna change the rules to screw the Crew over.
  3. If they do need starting pitching help, that help is likely to come from Brown/Supak being called up or with Woodruff/Peralta/Burnes sliding from the pen (or AAA). I do not see the Crew trading for a pitcher unless it is on very favorable terms.
  4. I'd disagree to an extent: I see Stokes as a Brady Clark with more pop - and he will be at AAA. Corey Ray is a left-handed Keon Broxton at worst. Lucas Erceg is also close, and there are Dubon, Hager, and Weston Wilson. Supak, Brown, and Olczak are all going to be very good, I think. It's the lower levels where I see some folks emerging. Ryan Aguilar, Jesus Chirinos, David Fry, Cooper Hummel, Tristan Lutz, Bryce Turang, Clayton Andrews, Victor Vargas, Scott Sunitsch, Cameron Roegener, and Aaron Ashby all look like they could be in the next wave or two of major league players. Some other folks take a while to develop - I think we may need the patience shown for Tyrone Taylor with Trent Grisham, for instance. Jorge Ortega and QTC are both coming off injuries.
  5. The Brewers would be smart to add him to the pen. Three years, $18 million. Why settle for one Hader when you can have two?
  6. No kidding I am NOT happy. Pazos was a guy the Crew could have used. Get him, sign Andrew Miller, the Crew has a pen to go to war with.
  7. How about this: Mariners get: OF Keon Broxton RHP Jacob Barnes Brewers get: LHP James Pazos 3B Kyle Seager SS Connor Kopach The Brewers can then make a deal with the Mets. Mets get: 1B Eric Thames Brewers get: C Patrick Mazeika SS Andres Gimenez 2B Felix Valerio Brewers lineup: cf: Cain rf: Yelich 1b: Aguilar 3b: Seager lf: Braun 2b: Shaw c: Pina ss: Arcia
  8. I think the Brewers will be getting left-handed relief pitchers, but I wonder, with the money cleared by letting Schoop go, if Andrew Miller may be a target. Jeffress, Knebel, Hader, Miller, Peralta would make for the heart of a devastating bullpen.
  9. In which case, tendering is a good idea, IMO.
  10. The thing is... Schoop's past performance indicates 2018 was the anomaly due to injury and the trade to a team in the midst of a playoff race. If the BABIP goes from .253 to .300, he becomes an overpay, but a decent bridge to Hiura. If it goes to the .320 range he averaged from 2015-2017, then when Hiura forces the issue, Schoop can be dealt for a few prospects, even if it is at $10 million.
  11. Only way I take Cano: Mariners get: 2B Jonathan Schoop RHP Chase Anderson 1B Eric Thames RHP Phil Bickford Brewers get: 2B Robinson Cano LHP Justus Sheffield 1B Evan White IF Joe Rizzo OF Julio Rodriguez
  12. That is very true. I was higher than a kite on Ronnie Gideon after 2016... and he flamed out and was released two years later. Gabriel Garcia still has the OBP skills and pop I liked two years ago, but can't get his average above the Uecker line. Weston Wilson had a rough 2017, but he's rebounded to be a very solid utility player prospect. But then there are the surprises. Aside from me, how many folks thought Brent Suter would have become a key part of the rotation until he had to have Tommy John surgery?
  13. Stokes and Hiura both look to be very excellent contributors with the bat. Down in the lower minors, I named a number of other interesting players. Eddie Silva just screams Jeff Cirillo to me with the doubles, some power, and a .320 average. Edwin Sano looks like a Hernan Perez who switch hits and draws more walks. David Fry and Jesus Chirinos look like the catching tandem for the 2025 Brewers... if Cooper Hummel hasn't taken over.
  14. For me, it's hard to tell unless you have the prospect play actual games. Victor Vargas, for instance, is someone I will be keeping an eye on, largely because of very good OBP skills and speed at second base. He's looking like a right-handed Jeff Pickler, and since he is 18, he can still develop some power, but that hit-for-average tool and the OBP skills look very good.
  15. Agree with this. They don't have the high-end guys, but when I went to 100 on my prospect list there were very, very few who didn't have something going for them. I recall Sickels last year having a ridiculous number of C+/C grade prospects in the Brewers system, and they were almost all Rookie/low-A guys with some upside, not meh AA/AAA guys. It's possible that 1-2 years from now the Brewers could have 20+ B-grade prospects, and that's a lot. I'd agree. David Fry (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=fry---002dav), Jesus Chirinos (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=chirin003jes), Victor Vargas (https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=680838), Edwin Sano (https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=666787), Eddie Silva (https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=656962), Alex Hall (https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=673064), and Jess Williams (https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=673135) all have me very intrigued as offensive prospects.
  16. You have this new Jesus on your list as well? I look at the numbers, and I put him at #12. Yes it's DSL, but that bat looks special at catcher, and very very good at first base.
  17. I would much rather pay $8 million for two years of Derek Dietrich than $10 million for one year of Jonathon Schoop. Schoop probably has more theoretical upside, but there is also the threat of him being an expensive offensive black hole. Dietrich can easily slide into a utility role once Hiura is up and playing regularly too. He's doesn't grade out at a very good defender, but he is very athletic, and the Brewers' shifts should help put him in the right spots to make plays. I only wish he hit left-handed pitchers better, because if he's signed, he'd likely have to be platooned with Perez. That sort of platoon wouldn't be a bad thing... although, Dietrich is valuable solely as a utility player as well. Ideally, sign Dietrich and keep Schoop. Use Dietrich and Perez as the main pieces off the bench. Schoop is likely to rebound from 2018 to some extent - his average BABIP from 2015-2017 was .321. Hi BABIP was in the .260 range in 2018. That's likely an anomaly. If Hiura struggles in 2019, then you have solid options all around. If he does well and forces the issue... then the Crew can deal Schoop.
  18. Plus, if Schoop does rebound to his 2015-2017 form, then the $10 million is less of an overpay. The ideal scenario is for Hiura to be forcing the issue, with Schoop rebounding to close to his 2017 form. Once you have that, the Brewers will have options.
  19. If he did have those injury problems earlier, he may have not only been pressing, but he also may have been less than 100%. As I said, the BABIP was quite low when compared to his 2015-2017 numbers. I think he will rebound.
  20. Taking a look at some of the advanced states at Baseball Reference (https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schoojo01-bat.shtml) Schoop had a BABIP that was .259 with the Brewers. In 2015, the BABIP was .329. 2016's was .305, and 2017's was .330. His overall BABIP in 2018 (.261) was the lowest since 2014, his rookie year. Injury, adjusting to a new league, and a playoff race may have thrown Schoop off. A rebound to a BABIP in the .320 range might very well be possible.
  21. I'd take Dietrich as a complement to Perez on the bench. Use Schoop through May of 2019 - or sooner, if Hiura forces the issue with his play.
  22. He's a great athlete, but is he a baseball player? I think he'll be a poor man's version of Keon Broxton.
  23. The OBP skills are a big thing for me, yes. More BBs than Ks tells me the guy also makes contact. The Crew is too feast-or-famine, and a high-contact guy with good OBP skills would be very beneficial.
  24. It depends on what you value and relative value. Ray could be higher on some lists simply because they aren't as high on the others, and one of the problems with rank is that it doesn't tell you distance. Rank order is about relative value and they have to place someone at that spot. Some people make these lists simply on upside. Others place more weight on risk or distance from majors. I personally give more weight to production at AA or above, and will rate guys at AA/AAA who may only project to be bench/bullpen guys higher than DSL/rookie/low-A guys who have a higher upside but high risk and mediocre production; I've seen too many guys flame out at AA (or even A+) to get real excited about the upside of HS draft picks or high bonus international signings. The Brewers don't have a strong track record of developing either (Lara, Grisham, Walters, Medeiros, Gatewood, Harrison, Devin Williams, Neuhaus, Coulter, Tyrone Taylor, etc.). I also give more weight to how difficult it is to find good players at that position (C, SS, 3B I value more than corner OF, 1B, 2B). This isn't the place to debate individual prospects, but despite Lutz being younger, looking at stats (K%, BB%, wRC, wOBA, ISO) and factoring in level of competition (AA vs. low-A) and defensive value (Ray has a chance to stick at CF whereas Lutz is a corner OF), it's not unreasonable at all to rank Ray higher than Lutz, depending on what people value. I had Ray higher than Lutz, largely because he did seem to put it all together and was at a higher level. I placed Stokes over Ray because Stokes has been at a very solid performance level over two seasons (Ray just has 2018). That said, Medeiros and Harrison both seemed to be putting it together when they were traded. Taylor and Gatewood also have been putting it together, albeit both were delayed by injury. Grisham could still put it together.
  25. Hall and Hardy both had good years from that 2002 list, but the rest... Man, injury, bad luck...
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