Harold Hutchison

I've always wondered if a platoon of Segura and Gennett at second base might maximize their bats.

Yeah, but he's a shadow of the McGehee who was with the Brewers. I am a little upset. I liked Perez, he seemed like an option at short or third, definitely a decent utility player. I hope it's more a case of protecting some folks from the Rule V draft (there are some I am VERY worried about losing).

Actually, looking over Suter's 2015 game logs, that one rough outing in Venezuela was his only bad outing all year! Prior to that, he had never given up more than four earned runs in a game - and that happened over seven innings against Tacoma on August 19. It looks like he has put together a breakthrough season this year.

I can see that point. Still, I can think of seven or eight pitchers who would be ahead of Smith for the starting rotation. I don't disagree that it is possible for Smith to up his value if he can pan out as a starter. Jorge de la Rosa proved that a lefty starter can develop later in a baseball career. That said, I think the possibility that Smith could up his value is much higher if he becomes the Brewers closer for two or three years.

Of the starters I listed, Jorge Lopez seems to be higher than back-of-the-rotation, Suter put up very good numbers in Biloxi and Colorado Springs (note, Taylor Jungmann posted a 6.37 ERA there, over three points higher than Suter's), and Ortega seems to have extremely good control (his 0.7 BB/9IP in 2015 is in Greg Maddux territory). Tyler Thornburg also looked like he could have been a front-of-the-rotation guy based on his 2013 numbers. Looking a little past the players I listed, Josh Hader seems to have top-of-the-rotation stuff, Cody Ponce is mowing folks down, Kodi Meideros has shown some stuff, and I think the Brewers could have a pair of DSL sleepers in Rodrigo Benoit and Carlos Luna. I don't think there is just one profile that fits an ace.

Yes, I understand the whole underslot thing but no player shouldn't get almost the whole slot. The teams have no power in this situation. You either sign the player or lose the money. With slotting the league is saying "this is how much you are worth but you can sign for less than that if you want." There is no reason a player shouldn't sign for less than that. Which is why, if there is a deep draft, the Brewers should bust the draft pool.

Exactly - although I'd give him 2016 and 2017 as a closer, so that there's more of a track record. Remember how Danny Kolb and Derrick Turnbow had one good year, then flopped a bit afterwards? Two years as closer, with 65-70 saves total, ought to be enough to get a nice little bidding war for Smith going. And if we don't like the offers, there would still be 2018 and 2019 where he could close out games for the Crew, so who not buy out the last two years of arby and a year or two of free agency and then see what happens? Win-win either way.

He posted a 0.6 WAR in 90 innings as a 22 year old just breaking into the big leagues, and that was three years ago. I fail to see how that is "pretty bad" or "not very defensible" as clancy put it. As for his splits, his career OPS against is .745. For comparison, Peralta's is .739, Nelson's is .716. And 64% of batters Smith has faced in his career have been right-handed, so it's not like he's unused to seeing them. When I see a WHIP of 1.606 in the rotation and only 5.6 K/9IP, that's not a good track record. Smith's blossomed as a reliever, averaging 12.2 K/9IP over the last three years from the pen. Giving him the closer's spot is much more likely to ensure his trade value goes up. Three years from now, when the Brewers try to move Smith, 65-70 saves will make teams pay more.

It's not about Smith's age. As a starter, he was not very good. A 5.32 ERA, 1.606 WHIP, and a K/BB of 1.79 just aren't very defensible. But over the last three years as a reliever, we're looking at a 3.22 ERA, 1.232 WHIP, and a K/BB of 3.55. So, I think that tells the tale. Now, the 12.2 K/9IP Smith has posted tells me that the best route to maximize his value is to make him the closer by trading K-Rod this off-season. K-Rod should net a top 30 prospect (albeit closer to 30 than 1). Buy out his arby years, and have him close for two or three years, rack up a few dozen saves. Then the Brewers can flip Smith for a higher return than if he is perceived as a LOOGY/middle relief guy. I hope you mean Top 30 as in an organizations Top 30...not all of MLB. That was what I meant. Seriously, though... Smith as the closer might be the best thing for the Brewers in the short term (he'd be lights out, IMO) AND for the long haul (I think some teams would overpay for him, especially if there is a couple of years on the contract). K-Rod might net only one top 30 prospect from an organization, but Will Smith after three years as the Brewers closer might bring back a bigger return.

It's not about Smith's age. As a starter, he was not very good. A 5.32 ERA, 1.606 WHIP, and a K/BB of 1.79 just aren't very defensible. But over the last three years as a reliever, we're looking at a 3.22 ERA, 1.232 WHIP, and a K/BB of 3.55. So, I think that tells the tale. Now, the 12.2 K/9IP Smith has posted tells me that the best route to maximize his value is to make him the closer by trading K-Rod this off-season. K-Rod should net a top 30 prospect (albeit closer to 30 than 1). Buy out his arby years, and have him close for two or three years, rack up a few dozen saves. Then the Brewers can flip Smith for a higher return than if he is perceived as a LOOGY/middle relief guy.

Uhh... why look outside. It doesn't make sense. The in-house options for the Brewers, who have been at AAA or higher in 2015 are: Tyler Thornburg (who had a decent run as a starter in Milwaukee before he got moved to the pen) Jorge Lopez (2nd round pick who had two starts in MIL this year) Tyler Cravy (14 appearances, and good numbers at AAA) Tyler Wagner (3 starts in MIL) Zach Davies (acquired from Baltimore, had a good six start audition) Ariel Pena (5 starts and a decent job in them) Brent Suter (who broke out this year, and had a 3.43 ERA in Colorado Springs) The only way to win this year's pitching free-agent market is not to play. There are plenty of in-house candidates. The Brewers don't need to overpay a veteran.

And That: I think Will Smith is a good reliever, period (not just a LOOGY), and has proven it over the last three years. As for trying him out in the rotation - I'll pass. His numbers as a starter just didn't impress me, and even if you figure Garza is not returning to the rotation, the Brewers have Tyler Thornburg, Jorge Lopez, Tyler Cravy, Zach Davies, Tyler Wagner, Ariel Pena, and Brent Suter who spent time at AAA or higher in 2015 to compete for the other two spots in the 2016 rotation behind Taylor Jungmann, Jimmy Nelson, and Wily Peralta. If you want to maximize Smith's value, deal K-Rod, and use Smith as a closer for a few years. The numbers seem to indicate he has the stuff to handle that role, and I think other teams might overpay for a left-handed closer. That is where my instincts are. The downside to Smith in the rotation is you're not giving one of the seven guys I listed a shot.

In some ways, teams like the Brewers are the AAAA farm teams for the big-market teams like the Yankees - and I use the fourth A for real. We're the ones who filter out the young players who turn out well, and then the Yankees, White Sox, Dodgers, Angels, or some other big market team drops that $20-25 million per year deal the Crew can't match. For me, the real problem is that the Brewers are having a paucity of success in rounds 2-10 of the June draft. Look at the picks who made the majors from 2001 to 2015. I have bolded the ones who have become significant contributors, and players in the latest Brewerfan.net Top 25 are in italics: 2001 JJ Hardy (2nd round) Brad Nelson (4th round) Dennis Sarfate (9th round) 2002 Tom Wilhelmsen (7th round - RELEASED) 2003 Tony Gwynn Jr. (2nd round) 2004 Yovani Gallardo (2nd round) Angel Salome (5th round) 2005 Mat Gamel (4th round) Michael Brantley (7th round - traded to CLE) Jemile Weeks (8th round - not signed) Steve Garrison (10th round - one appearance with the Yankees) 2006 Cole Gillespie (3rd round - TRADED) Mike McClendon (10th round) 2007 Jon Lucroy (3rd round) Eric Farris (4th round) Caleb Gindl (5th round) Eric Fryer (10th round - played with other major league teams) 2008 Logan Schafer (3rd round) Erik Komatsu (8th round - TRADED) 2009 Josh Prince (3rd round) Hiram Burgos (6th round) Khris Davis (7th round) 2010 Jimmy Nelson (2nd round) Tyler Thornburg (3rd round) Yadiel Rivera (9th round) 2011 Jorge Lopez (2nd round) Michael Reed (5th round) David Goforth (7th round) 2012 Tyrone Taylor (2nd round) Tyler Wagner (4th round) 2013 Devin Williams (2nd round) 2014 Monte Harrison (2nd round) Cy Sneed (3rd round) 2015 Cody Ponce (2nd round) Demi Orimoloye (4th round) The Brewers need to hit a lot more in rounds 2-10. Really, I think they need to put more money into amatuer scouting, and they need to be willing to bust some of the draft caps to get the "less signable" picks that might fall to those rounds.

Michael Reed's AFL OBP is .390 - on a .219 batting average. He is 7-for-32, but has NINE walks as well.

I'm going to create an All-Star Team of Brewers' minor-leaguers. To be eligible, they had to have been in the system at the end of the season. It's kinda arbitrary on my part, but maybe this kicks off discussion. C: Adam Weisenburger, Biloxi - He was simply an OBP god with a cannon arm. He's been at Biloxi the last three seasons, and perhaps it is time to see what he can do at AAA. 1B: Garrett Cooper, Brevard County/Biloxi - A doubles and OBP machine in the tradition of Lyle Overbay and Jeff Cirillo, Cooper mostly played first base, but had some playing time in right field this year, and at third base last year. 2B: George Iskenderian, Helena - Speed, hits for average, and some OBP skills. SS: Orlando Arcia, Biloxi - The Opening Day 2016 or 2017 shortstop for the Brewers. But can he develop power? 3B: Nathan Orf, Biloxi - Showed an ability to get on base, and mostly played third base. OF: Trent Clark, Arizona/Helena - Speedy professional hitter did not disappoint. OF: Brett Phillips, Biloxi (with Milwaukee) - Looks like a complete offensive package who can play center field. OF: Demi Orimoloye, Arizona - Flashed massive power in brief Arizona stint before joining Team Canada. DH: Michael Reed, Biloxi/Colorado Springs - Brings speed, OBP skills, and can play any outfield position. Starting Pitcher (RHP): Jorge Ortega, Brevard County/Colorado Springs - Simply dominated at Brevard County, then did well in one AAA start. Starting Pitcher (LHP): Brent Suter, Biloxi/Colorado Springs - Broke out big. Just got outs. Relief Pitcher: Damien Magnifico, Biloxi - Could be in-house replacement for K-Rod in 2017. Maybe even sooner. SECOND-TEAM C: Carlos Leal, Wisconsin 1B: Nick Ramirez, Biloxi 2B: Yadiel Rivera, Biloxi/Colorado Springs SS: Jake Gatewood, Helena/Wisconsin 3B: Yerison Pena, DSL/Helena OF: Victor Roache, Brevard County/Biloxi OF: Clint Coulter, Brevard County OF: Troy Stokes, Helena DH: Steve Karkenny, Helena Starter (RH): Jorge Lopez, Biloxi Starter (LH): Josh Hader, Biloxi Reliever: Brad Kuntz, Arizona/Helena

How about some thoughts on superlatives: Who is the most likely to be first graduate off the list? Who will be the biggest climber? Who will have the biggest drop? Most likely to make a comeback?

[sarcasm]At what point do we start to question if clancyphile is Suter's parent or coach?[/sarcasm] This is starting to give me flashbacks of Ben Hendrickson's dad or Angel Salome's coach... I get it, I get it. Seriously, though - it seems that Suter's prospect status is polarizing. Those who put him on the Top 25 list (myself included) think he is a VERY good one - he was on three ballots, but he got the 25th highest point total. Have there been other prospects this polarizing?

It would be fascinating to see the average points per vote for each player. Suter, for instance, only appeared on three ballots, but averaged 19 points per ballot (there was my first place vote, another in the top five, and one with him at 15).

Aren't you going to post one?

But what would getting McMahon cost in terms of the Top 25 or Top 30 prospects?

The decision to edit came after thinking more and more on the 2015 performances. The fact is, I'd probably consider my top two tied, but someone had to be #1 and someone had to be #2. Ultimately, it was Suter's Colorado Springs numbers that decided it for me as I kept thinking about it. Colorado Springs is a place where pitchers ought to get clubbed like a baby seal in the Canadian arctic. Yet Suter wasn't. He's legit, and the numbers are far better than those of any other left-handed starter in the system.

Not bad... the pitching line was even better, and I feel that editing my Top 25 ballot was warranted.

Nothing really earth shattering at first glance. Cravy and Wagner have really dropped - much of that is simply because we have better players - but also the growing realization that both guys have limited skillsets - thus limiting their upside. Also, fewer and fewer votes for guys who project as part timers - Wren, Rivera, relievers, etc. Again, probably the simple fact that we have really improved our system over the last two years. The community tends to focus on potential impact players over guys that look like role players. How many points will it take for someone to make the top 25?

We've got 20 so far, which is pretty good. I was shooting for at least 25. We had over 30 this past mid-season, but I'm just not sure how many people are hitting the boards at this time. OK. BTW, any surprises based on the ballots so far?

How many votes are we looking for for the poll?