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Harold Hutchison

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Everything posted by Harold Hutchison

  1. Harold Hutchison
    It's a long way from the DSL to MLB... and it can take a while for the players to really develop. I think File and Lazar are the two pitchers most likely to emerge as TOR arms. The former has four good pitches and control - and reminds me a little of Greg Maddux in that regard. Maddux didn't blow people away, but he managed to induce weak contact and avoid the gopher ball. Lazar is something else. He has the control, and he already gets results. So, what happens if the fastball goes up a few ticks? This is not to say Ethan Small or Aaron Ashby are scrubs, but File and Lazar have some real results.
  2. Harold Hutchison
    Who do you folks think are going to be the sleepers, breakout stars, and comebacks in the Brewers farm system for 2020? Some of my thoughts: Sleepers 1. LHP Michael Mediavilla - Two sub-1.00 ERA seasons, a career WHIP of 0.640... could make a Rasmussen-like climb in 2020. 2. OF Cooper Hummel - Yeah, he was third in wRC+ last year, but he's not on the Top 30 of MLB pipeline. 3. LHP Scott Sunitsch - Better K/BB ratio than Ashby Breakout Candidates 1. OF/1B/C Thomas Dillard - Will be interesting if he can do well in first full season. 2. 1B Ernesto Wilson Martinez - Could be a big power bat at first. 3. SS Cam DeVanney - If he matches 2019 performance in first full season, things get interesting... Comeback Candidates 1. LHP Quintin Torres-Costa - Was shaping up as solid relief option before Tommy John surgery. 2. OF Corey Ray - Can he rebound to 2018 performance? 3. RHP Zack Brown - Baby seals in the Canadian Arctic had a better 2019 than he did, but could he rebound?
  3. Harold Hutchison
    I don't think the roster will be weakened. For me, the question is whether they have deferred enough money to keep the deal closer to LoCain territory over the active portion of the deal or not. If they do, the window is wide open for the rest of the decade.
  4. Harold Hutchison
    I'll personally echo this sentiment. At first I thought this was 7/200+ of NEW MONEY...taking him through age 37. Reality is it's 6/173 of new money only taking him through age 36. That extra 30+ million for his age 37 season was just a little too long in my opinion and a little too expensive. I didn't hate it, but at the same time it felt like this would be a mediocre-bad deal those last 2-3 years. This only going through age 36 is a real game changer for me. One less potential bad year. Looking ahead, we have a fringe contender this year. Very strong chance of playoffs and could be really good if the young pitching breaks out. We have a bunch of salary coming off the books next year and cheap options if any of the Sogard/Gyorko/Smoak group breaks out in a big way. Come 2022, we have a ton of dead money coming off the books and a good core to build around. It will be very important that we revamp the farm a bit and develop better over the next couple years to build around a very solid core. Overall, outlook of the team is excellent going forward. The 2-3 year window we had while Yelich was around is now blown wide open. We could very well be consistently good for a long time. This would be something new. In the 1980s, the Crew went to the World Series in 1982, but was in the cellar in 1984, and second-to-last in `85 and `86 before Trebelhorn turned it around from 1987-1991, but that tenure saw a sub-.500 season.
  5. Harold Hutchison
    I think that is a very good bet. Two of Feliciano/Henry/Fry could hold down catcher. I would not be surprised if there was a deal to lock down Hiura for roughly the same timeframe as Yelich.
  6. Harold Hutchison
    My pick: Hader Rasmussen Claudio Phelps* Suter Lindblom Black* D. Williams* * - Black replaced by Knebel * - D. Williams replaced by Clayton Andrews * - Phelps replaced by Burnes
  7. Harold Hutchison
    It made a lot of sense. I wonder how much that kneecap injury played into his thought process. He got lucky in that he could make a full recovery, that he wasn't losing a year to recover from the more serious injuries that could easily have affected his baserunning and defensive performance.
  8. Harold Hutchison
    I feel the same way. I can't believe how much money Yelich is potentially leaving on the table. He clearly loves playing in Milwaukee and trusts what the front office is doing. Yes, that is a big part of it. This is a team-friendly extension. I wonder just how team-friendly it is...
  9. Harold Hutchison
    It will be interesting to see how much they deferred. If they could defer about $50 million, then it comes to $20 million a year in the seven years after the two seasons of Yelich's current/new deal.
  10. Harold Hutchison
    I deliberately went to the years prior to the "juiced" ball. Urias has shown very good OBP skills, particularly in drawing walks. At times over his minor league career, he has walked more than he struck out over the course of a season. If he hits .270, I expect the OBP to be in the .360-.370 range. Think Brock Holt as a floor.
  11. Harold Hutchison
    Why wouldn't they play a guy in Urias acquired to play SS at SS? It makes 0 sense to give him a prominent role at 3B. Because Urias, if he puts up an .850 OPS like he did in two of the three years in the minors before the "juiced" balll of 2019, it a viable bat at third, albeit an OBP-heavy one. Urias could put up very good OBP numbers, in the .380-.400 range. Hiura, of course, would be that .950 OPS middle of the order bat. If Arcia has put it together offensively to the tune of reliable posting OPS figures in the .750-.775 range with outstanding defense, I think it would make plenty of sense. Assume the Brewers, after this season, reach a five-year/$20 million deal with Arcia, with two option years worth another $15 million. Kind of a Peralta-plus deal. You would have 3/4 of the infield manned by players under 27, all of whom have 4+ years of control. That's not a bad spot to be in. Now, if Lucas Erceg puts it all together, now things get interesting... but right now, IF Arcia's put it together offensivle, Urias may be the best bet at third base.
  12. Harold Hutchison
    What's the question? If it's a longterm shortstop, I think Urias is the answer. If it's a productive bat playing SS for the first half of the year and insurance for Urias in the second half, I think Holt/Sogard are quite possibly capable. That said, I also hope Arcia keeps it up! If the question is, "anchors on the bench alongside Gyorko while Urias, Arcia, and Hiura hold down third, short, and second," it's very good news for the 2020 Brewers if the answers are Holt and Sogard.
  13. Harold Hutchison
    Put it this way, if Arcia's for real, and put up around a .750 OPS with near Gold Glove defense, and if Hiura locks second base down, then Urias at third is not a bad choice. Looking at the minor-league stats (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=urias-000lui), Urias in the three years prior to the "juiced" ball of 2019 posted OPS figures of .850, .778, and .845. Much of that was from a VERY good OBP figure (.404 in 2016, .398 in 2017, .398 in 2018). For a leadoff hitter... that's not bad at all.
  14. Harold Hutchison
    I am coming at this more from a cost-control perspective. If Woodruff continues his ascendancy into an elite arm, he could be looking at significant salary increases when he becomes arbitration-eligible. If the Brewers could extend him past the 2024 season (when he becomes a FA at 31) for an additional year or two, it may be worthwhile. This is my reasoning for Woodruff as well. Right now, the Brewers could get a cost-contained/cost-certainty extension at $10-$12 million per year. If you can buy out two or three free agent years at that price, you get an elite arm for a Matt Garza price. Then you can either have him anchor the rotation, or you have someone with a ton of surplus value to deal for reloading the farm system.
  15. Harold Hutchison
    An improved walk rate shows likely improved eye at the plate and/or improved patience, which can lead to improved production. Much easier to hit good pitches than junk in the dirt. Arcia reduced his chase% from 34% prior 3 seasons to 30% in 2019. Chase contact% increased from 54% to 62%, tells you he's probably swinging at less impossible pitches and more pitches close to the zone that he can at least foul off. Also his whiff% is down from 29% to 24.5% from 2018 to 2019. Feel free to take a look at his statcast data for more info. Based on those advanced metrics, I'm surprised his production wasn't closer to 2017 than it was...most metrics were similar or better in 2019 than 2017. And an Arcia who can put up a .750 OPS makes for a stronger lineup. Urias could hold down third in that case, and with Hiura at second... That could be good news.
  16. Harold Hutchison
    Fair enough. Thanks for the info. My first thought was him doing something stupid like that, or surfing, or snowboarding...something with unnecessary risk. [sarcasm]Left-handed pitchers prefer rodeo competitions when it comes to side gigs.[/sarcasm]
  17. Harold Hutchison
    All of these things are true ... but it's also pretty easy to forget that he's also only 25 years old. I don't think it's out of line to have a little bit of cautious optimism for the guy. For me, the big difference is an improved walk rate. In 2019, Arcia's batting average was 13 points lower than his disastrous 2018 season (.223 to .236), but his OBP was 15 points HIGHER (.283 to .268). In fact, he drew 43 walks to 494 at-bats in 2019 compared to 36 in 506 ABs in 2017. To me, that is tangible improvement in that area.
  18. Harold Hutchison
    The difference between 2017 Arcia and 2019 Arcia was really just BABIP. All of the peripherals were about the same with 2017 having a very slight edge in xOPS. The big difference is Arcia had a career high BABIP in 2017 and a career low in 2019. I saw he had improved his ability to draw walks. If Arcia can be a .750 OPS hitter... cf: Cain 3b: Urias lf: Yelich 2b: Hiura c: Narvaez 1b: Smoak rf: Garcia ss: Arcia
  19. Harold Hutchison
    Or, if Arcia is 2017 Arcia, then a full-time of Urias at third, Arcia at short, and Hiura at second isn't so bad...
  20. Harold Hutchison
    Yeah I saw this too and agree. He seems like a pretty sharp guy, that type that's able to get the most out of his stuff. A lefty that can mix in 4 pitches and get the best out of them can be a very solid mid rotation guy even if he's only topping out in the 92-94 range. If he mixes four, I think he's beyond mid-rotation and could top out as a TOR starter. Developments this season could be interesting. Right now he's #9 on my ballot. At this point, I see Max Lazar as a potential TOR arm, with File a #2 starter. Small could go right into that same level.
  21. Harold Hutchison
    For me, it's: #1: High OBP with speed. #2: High OBP who hits for average #3: Best hitter on team #4: Top 3 hitter with power #5: Hitter aside from 1-4 with best power-speed number #6: Power hitter #7: Best hit-for-average guy NOT in 1-4 spots #8: Best OBP/speed guy not in the 1-3 or 5 spots #9: Pitcher
  22. Harold Hutchison
    To paraphrase Happy Gilmore... Uh-oh, Freddy has multiple pitches!
  23. Harold Hutchison
    Maybe he can be persuaded to return to the Crew...
  24. Harold Hutchison
    I'm for having Yelich at the 3 spot, ideally with two runners on base. So, I'd go Sogard, Cain, Yelich against lefties, maybe go Holt, Cain, Yelich against righties. It drove me crazy to see Thames batting leadoff or second so often - wasted a lot of power.
  25. Harold Hutchison
    Nope, I'm not buying a guy who's sitting upper 80s can get hitters out at the higher levels. Hopefully he can, but I value stuff/tools more highly than results when I make these lists. I'll also admit I haven't been as closely monitoring our minor leaguers the last year or two. Stuff and tools are things to keep in mind... but results count, too. I don't know much about Michael Mediavilla's stuff or his tools. But the results in 2018 and 2019, even with him missing a lot of the latter season, are impossible to ignore, and I'm rocketing him way up my list. You can see for yourself - I put his BR page (and for all my picks) on the ballot. The same for Lazar. What he showed last year was huge. If he keeps it up this year, he's top 5 in the mid-season poll.
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