Harold Hutchison

Rasmussen and Andrews... interesting indeed. Both guys who could really end up in Milwaukee this year in the bullpen. Feliciano and Henry... also interesting. Erceg... maybe he does a Trent Grisham, but I have Hummel and Wilson ahead of him as home-grown players who help the MLB roster.

Bettis sounds intriguing... But at the same time, even with Shelby Miller, the Brewers can populate the rest of the AAA rotation with a lot of young starters - Z. Brown, Supak, Burnes, and Jankins. In the AA rotation, there's Zavolas, Francis, Bettinger, Ashby, and File. Go down to Carolina, and it's Sunitsch, Lazar, Victor Castaneda, Webb, and Small.

Unfortunately at the same ages Shaw was considerably better at every level. 22 A+ 305/411/957 vs 256/307/724 23 AA 221/342/736 vs 248/306/688 24 AAA 262/321/752 vs 218/305/703 OBP and SLG go from considerably worse to just worse. Wilson for reference 22 A-A+ 254/323/701 23 A+-AA 270/326/759 24 AA again 231/324/739 And no one talks about Wilson except for Clancy. For me, Wilson's big selling point these days is the versatility and an OK bat. I have no clue on computing wOBA/wRC/wRC+, but he does seem to be someone who doesn't stink at the plate, and he holds down all four infield spots and LF/RF. To me, Wilson's rising based on a superb 2018 in the Arizona Fall League and a 2019 season that saw him boost his walk rate. Is he an All-Star at the major league level? Maybe not. But what I think he can do is be a valuable bench asset due to hiss versatility and a power bat.

I half-expect a rough year, since it's the jump to full-season ball, but the fact he walks - and that the walks carried over from DSL to Arizona - have me willing to be patient with his development.

I'm a big fan of Aaron Familia... https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=famili000aar Even in bad years, lots of walks. Plays third base and first.

Grisham in his worst year was still an above-average hitter (105 wRC+); he "didn't hit" in the context of a 1st round pick where more was expected, but he still hit. While offering value on defense and on the basepaths, as well as being young for his level every step of the way. Erceg's wRC+ has been steadily dropping, with a 69 (not nice) in 2019 and 94 in 2018. He's been a worse hitter than Grisham overall, which is troublesome when you're both older as well as playing a premium offense position. .218/.305/.398 is a bad line for a 3B; it's even worse when it comes in one of the most hitter-friendly environments ever. Which is not to say he can't find his way; you can look at someone like Mike Moustakas early MLB years for a similar kind of low BA/low OBP/low K%/low BB% profile that improved to see that it's certainly possible. I just don't think it's accurate to say that he and Grisham have had similar minor league careers. Or that he looks like someone likely to make an impact in 2020. which would make him a surprise contributor if it happens. I honestly think Weston Wilson is more likely to make an impact in Milwaukee than Erceg. Not only has he done better, he adds more versatility, playing all four infield positions and both corner OF positions. That being said, I think the 2016 draft class looks promising outside Erceg. Corey Ray had a monster 2018 when he was finally healthy. Corbin Burnes played a key role in 2018 for the Brewers. Zach Brown was doing well until 2019. Mario Feliciano and Payton Henry are arguably among the top 15 catcher prospects in MLB. Thomas Jankins didn't get killed in the hitter-friendly PCL. Braden Webb could put it back together. Wilson could easily be a solid bench option. Cooper Hummell was third among Brewers minor leaguers in wRC+ in 2019, trailing only Hiura and Grisham. Ryan Aguilar has always drawn walks, but improved his hitting in 2019. Lots to look forward to from that year alone.

Or trade those pieces for players that fill gaps in other spots on the roster. With Yelich, Braun, and Cain on the roster, coupled with the signing of Garcia, Grisham was out of places to play. Using Grisham the OF prospect to trade for Urias the SS prospect, was a stroke of genius given the abundance of OF depth and the dearth of SS depth. That is, of course, another benefit for a deep farm system. But you have to be willing to trust those kids at some point. Fill the 4/5 slots of the rotation with a Dylan File or Thomas Jankins - and see what happens. Maybe we find the next Woodruff or Davies. Maybe you don't pay Chacin $8 million a year... you're paying $750,000. What does that extra $7.25 million do for the team?

Exactly. I would also add, that the Brewers NEED to have a pipeline where young players come up and fill spots - whether as key backups, bottom of the rotation, or the middle-relief/mop-up roles in a bullpen - then the money saved can maybe keep a proven player around longer and expand a window, or bring in that free agent for a year or two. At some point, the Crew has to trust the kids in those spots at the very least. And if some get the opportunity (see Trent Grisham), they could emerge as solid contributors or even stars themselves. Furthermore, they have to be willing to look at results. With Keston Hiura graduating and the trade of Trent Grisham, the top returning minor-league hitter in terms of wRC+ is... Cooper Hummel (https://www.brewcrewball.com/2019/11/25/20982116/milwaukee-brewers-cooper-hummel-prospect-interview). So, while we hope to see Nottingham, Erceg, and Ray break out to their potential, it makes no sense to dismiss the chance that Hummel, Weston Wilson, and Ryan Aguilar could be contributors to Milwaukee.

That would be a surprise since Erceg hasn't hit since rookie ball, has he? Grisham was in that same boat. Good first year, then scuffled... until he broke out.

The soft-tossing lefty who knows how to pitch. A high-contact hitter with OBP skills but little power. The guy who will provide a consistent 110 OPS+, rather than a feast-or-famine player...

Some similarities to Grisham in that he had initial success, then fell off and struggled. Maybe he is going to have a similar breakout. But I think Hummel and Wilson are more likely. Their floors are a bit higher, even if their ceilings may be lower.

Here's my top five to "surprise" the rest of baseball: 1. OF/C Cooper Hummel - Statistically, he was the best bat in the Brewers system behind Grisham and Hiura. 2. RHP Dylan File - Could be a home-grown TOR starter. 3. LHP Clayton Andrews - On the mound, is a poor man's Josh Hader... but he also can hit and play center field. 4. IF Weston Wilson - With all the depth at AA/AAA, he might be the best infield bat, and that could get him to Milwaukee. 5. LHP Quintin Torres-Costa - The only reason he isn't in the majors in 2019 was the need for Tommy John surgery.

[sarcasm]Well, there is Ryan Braun as an option...[/sarcasm]

I agree about the age... but these numbers jump out BEYOND what would be normal age difference, I think. A career 0.640 WHIP, two years of sub-1.00 ERAs, and a career 7.29 K/BB speak volumes. He could easily rocket up.

I don't question how they handled that side of it. MKE's pitching success has come through the farm and vet reclamation projects. Equal parts of each. In 2019 they leaned on the farm and it flamed until Gio Lyles Pom Suter came in to balance it out. Move forward to 2020 and they still got the farm side covered but much like 2019 we don't have equal parts. If we believe the reports, then the Brewers have the following breakdown on their 40-man/NRIs: Starters: Woodruff, Houser, Peralta, Burnes, Lindblom, B. Anderson, Lauer, Castillo, Miller, Supak Relievers: Hader, Knebel, Suter, Claudio, Black, Wahl, Feyereisen, D. Williams, T. Williams, Faria, Grimm, Yardley, Guerra, Perdomo On the prospect front for the rotation, the Brewers will have in AA/AAA: Z. Brown, Jankins, File, Bettinger, Francis, Ashby, Zavolas, On the bullpen side, it's led by: Rasmussen, Andrews, Torres-Costa, Olczak, Barker Then there are sleepers. A big one is Michael Mediavilla. Missed some time in 2019, but in that year and 2018, his career ERA is under 1.00, he has a 7.29 K/BB ratio, and a career WHIP of 0.640. I wouldn't be surprised if he rocketed through the system.

You are 100% right but here's my question. Is the trash heap big enough in the pitching department? I don't think they collected enough "trash" to sort through until they find something of worth. Where we differ is that I think a lot of the "hidden treasure" isn't exactly trash heap - it's developed. San Antonio will have Shelby Miller from the "trash heap" in their rotation. They also will have Corbin Burnes, not long ago considered a top-flight prospect until he was shelled in most of his 2019 outings. But a lot of the others are prospects, like Trey Supak, Zack Brown, and Thomas Jankins. The San Antonio bullpen is going to be centered on legit prospects like Drew Rasmussen, Angel Perdomo, Quintin Torres-Costa, and Clayton Andrews. In Biloxi, the rotation will have Dylan File, Alec Bettinger, Bowden Francis, and Aaron Ashby. That also doesn't include the possibility of Freddy Peralta having at least a slider to go with his fastball - and that could make him a legit rotation piece instead of a dominating bullpen asset. I've said it a lot, but I really think that the "treasure" that is found this year will come more from prospects than the usual "trash heap" that we've seen the last two or three years.

Per McCalvy, team expects full recovery, no lingering effects. IIRC, didn't Brad Nelson have a fractured hamate?

Short answer: Yes. They have done enough to match 2019, and get a wild card spot - where anything can happen. For me, the big questions center around folks who will be in San Antonio and Biloxi this year. Will some of Drew Rasmussen, Corbin Burnes, Quintin Torres-Costa, Clayton Andrews, Cooper Hummel, Trey Supak, Jake Gatewood, Zack Brown, Lucas Erceg, Corey Ray, Tyrone Taylor, Weston Wilson, Dylan File, Alec Bettinger, Bowden Francis, and Josh Nottingham step up and contribute? If they do, it could be the kind of boost the Crew got from Peralta and Burnes in 2018 - and that year, the Crew was one game away from the World Series.

Here's what I cobbled together using BaseballTradeValues.com: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-22207/ Brewers get: RHP Chris Archer SS Ji-Hwan Bae Pirates get: OF Tristan Lutz Pirates are $700K ahead on surplus value... Brewers get Archer, and SS prospect Ji-Hwan Bae, who has a good hit tool, OBP skills, and speed.

With an opt-out after 2020.

I remembered MassHass posting something about that...

Didn't MassHass post something about Peralta havign worked on at least a change-up and another pitch (Iforget if it was splitter or slider) earlier this off-season? Then someone made a Happy Gilmore reference involving putting...

I'm certainly going to be watching his pitch count per AB in Wisconsin. Maybe he's just hitting the first strike he gets but if he's keeping ABs alive by fouling off balls or costing himself outs by softly putting bad pitches in play, then I won't get too excited about him. His GBOs are on the bad side of average. His speed, contact skills and rumored defense in CF makes him a pretty hard type to wash out. However, controlling the strike zone is the difference between being a 5th OF and being a lead-off man. I'd also like to see him up his SB/CS percentages. Right now he's a fast kid who can't steal bases. According to the stats, he does seem to be Tony Gwynn minus the ability to draw walks. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rodrig026car https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gwynnto01.shtml

Well, when you look at the fact that the HOF does state that character, sportsmanship, etc. should be considerations on the ballot, I see no problem with that, or with Jeter coming within one vote of a unanimous election.

I get it to a degree but it's really hard for me to get excited about a guy who has 13 walks in 410 AB. Yes, he's putting his bat on everything but swinging at trash is still swinging at trash even if you hit it. It's not going to go for a hit or at the least it's not as likely. Unless his average AB is a crazy 2 pitches or something and he's hitting a ball that's a strike before they can possibly throw 4 balls, I have my concerns. 327/356 is quite the low split for a guy who is about speed, not power. If he was 327/400 now we are dreaming on him and looking into his defense. Wisconsin, I think will tell the tale. That said, if he is still hot in Wisconsin, I may use him to get a piece at the deadline. This is a profile that can flame out, especially if pitchers figure out how to get him to swing at trash more.