1992casey

endaround eloquently put this equation into words in the Quality Starts thread. For the sake of those whose eyeballs pop when reading equations, I'll repost what he said:

Here's the data molitor fan compiled. NL 2006 Game Scores Brewer Pitchers Ben Sheets58 (17 starts)Chris Capuano53Dave Bush53Jeff Suppan48Claudio Vargas47Carlos Villanueva53 (6 starts)NL Pitchers Brandon Webb63Roger Clemens60 (19 starts)Anibal Sanchez59 (17 starts)Chris Carpenter59Carlos Zambrano57Roy Oswalt57Chris Young57John Smoltz56Bronson Arroyo56Jason Schmidt55Jake Peavy55Matt Cain55John Maine55 (15 starts)Josh Johnson55Brett Myers54Cole Hamels54Aaron Harang54Pedro Martinez54Clay Hensley53Chuck James53 (18 starts)Rich Hill53 (16 starts)Derek Lowe52Scott Olsen52Dontrelle Willis52Jason Jennings52Tom Glavine51Orlando Hernandez51Jeff Francis50Andy Pettitte50Chad Billingsly50 (16 starts)Greg Maddux50Woody Williams50Brad Penny50Ian Snell49Anthony Reyes49Noah Lowry48Mark Hendrickson48Chan Ho Park48Mike O'Connor48Matt Morris48Eric Milton47Livan Hernandez47Jon Lieber47Ricky Nolasco47Tim Hudson47Tomo Ohka47 (18 starts)Zach Duke47Aaron Cook47Tony Armas46Byung Hyun Kim46Paul Maholm46Miguel Batista46Jamey Wright45Steve Trachsel45Elizardo Ramirez45 (19 starts)Enrique Gonzalez44 (18 starts)Sean Marshall44Victor Santos44 (19 starts)Jeff Weaver43Josh Fogg43Ramon Ortiz43Jason Marquis43Oliver Perez42Wandy Rodriguez41Mark Mulder38 (17 starts)Brian Moehler38AL 2006 Game Scores Francisco Liriano65 (16 starts)Johan Santana62Jared Weaver60Justin Verlander57CC Sabathia57Scott Kazmir56Roy Halladay55Mike Mussina55John Lackey55Curt Schilling54Kelvim Escobar53Jeremy Bonderman53Dan Haren53Jose Contreras53AJ Burnett53Ervin Santana52Barry Zito52Nate Robertson52Felix Hernandez51Kenny Rogers51Jake Westbrook51Jeremy Sowers50 (14 starts)Josh Beckett50Javier Vazquez50Daniel Cabrera50Kevin Millwood50Ted Lilly50Chien Ming Wang50Vincente Padilla50Freddy Garcia50Gil Meche50Erik Bedard49James Shields49Tim Wakefield49Jaime Moyer49Adam Loewen48 (19 starts)Cliff Lee48Tim Corcoran48 (16 starts)Jon Garland48Jaret Wright47Kris Benson47Brad Radke47Jarrod Washburn46Esteban Loaiza46Casey Fossum46Casey Janssen46 (17 starts)Gustavo Chacin46 (17 starts)Boof Bonser45 (18 starts)Joe Blanton45Scott Elarton45Mark Buehrle45Paul Byrd44Mark Redman43Rodrigo Lopez43John Karonka43Scott Baker41 (16 starts)Carlos Silva40Joel Pineiro39Runelvys Hernandez39AL & NL (combined) 2006 Game Scores Francisco Liriano65 (16 starts)Brandon Webb63Johan Santana62Jared Weaver60Anibal Sanchez59 (17 starts)Chris Carpenter59Ben Sheets58 (17 starts)Carlos Zambrano57Roy Oswalt57Chris Young57Justin Verlander57CC Sabathia57John Smoltz56Bronson Arroyo56Scott Kazmir56Roy Halladay55Mike Mussina55John Lackey55Jason Schmidt55Jake Peavy55Matt Cain55John Maine55 (15 starts)Josh Johnson55Brett Myers54Cole Hamels54Aaron Harang54Pedro Martinez54Curt Schilling54Kelvim Escobar53Chris Capuano53Dave Bush53Jeremy Bonderman53Dan Haren53Jose Contreras53AJ Burnett53Clay Hensley53Chuck James53 (18 starts)Rich Hill53 (16 starts)Derek Lowe52Scott Olsen52Dontrelle Willis52Jason Jennings52Ervin Santana52Barry Zito52Nate Robertson52Felix Hernandez51Kenny Rogers51Jake Westbrook51Tom Glavine51Orlando Hernandez51Jeff Francis50Andy Pettitte50Chad Billingsly50 (16 starts)Greg Maddux50Woody Williams50Brad Penny50Jeremy Sowers50 (14 starts)Josh Beckett50Javier Vazquez50Daniel Cabrera50Kevin Millwood50Ted Lilly50Chien Ming Wang50Vincente Padilla50Freddy Garcia50Gil Meche50Erik Bedard49James Shields49Tim Wakefield49Jaime Moyer49Ian Snell49Anthony Reyes49Jeff Suppan48Noah Lowry48Mark Hendrickson48Chan Ho Park48Mike O'Connor48Matt Morris48Adam Loewen48 (19 starts)Cliff Lee48Tim Corcoran48 (16 starts)Jon Garland48Jaret Wright47Claudio Vargas47Kris Benson47Brad Radke47Eric Milton47Livan Hernandez47Jon Lieber47Ricky Nolasco47Tim Hudson47Tomo Ohka47 (18 starts)Zach Duke47Aaron Cook47Tony Armas46Byung Hyun Kim46Paul Maholm46 Miguel Batista46Jarrod Washburn46Esteban Loaiza46Casey Fossum46Casey Janssen46 (17 starts)Gustavo Chacin46 (17 starts)Boof Bonser45 (18 starts)Joe Blanton45Scott Elarton45Mark Buehrle45Jamey Wright45Steve Trachsel45Elizardo Ramirez45 (19 starts)Enrique Gonzalez44 (18 starts)Sean Marshall44Victor Santos44 (19 starts)Paul Byrd44Mark Redman43Rodrigo Lopez43John Karonka43Jeff Weaver43Josh Fogg43Ramon Ortiz43Jason Marquis43Oliver Perez42Wandy Rodriguez41Scott Baker41 (16 starts)Carlos Silva40Joel Pineiro39Runelvys Hernandez39Mark Mulder38 (17 starts)Brian Moehler38------------------------EDIT: Links seemed to break for IE users; replaced them with full text

I can do that for molitor fan if he wants. I think this would be easier to discuss in one thread. I'll PM him with a proposal and see what he thinks. It's not like this forum is busy or anything. Comments on the numbers in existing threads should be easy to transfer or clean up.

I think I'd put Hall in that category just because he's Billy. I also might be tempted to include Hart as a runner-up simply because he's a guy that can be depended on to hit both lefties and righties. That's an interesting thought. I think that if that happened, the team would decide to let Ryan continue his development at 3B and move Koskie to 1B. That wouldn't be a good move for the team's defense, but it'd probably be a good move for Ryan.

I'd guess that Corey's getting hit by his poor .735 OPS campaign in 2005. Toss in that he was 32 that season and the .788 OPS projection fits right in. I wouldn't knock the credibility all the way down to zero. Rather, I'd say "know thy projection system" and go from there. These things are tools and tools must be used properly. Keep in mind that by necessity, a computer must use a 'one size fits all' approach. If it didn't, it'd stop being objective. If I'm a GM, I'd want to use these systems to keep my feet on the ground, so to speak, when trying to do my own more subjective projections. Counting stats, such as home runs, will be affected by projected ABs. Prince's 2005 AB total amounted to less than that of a full-time player. While league effects should be accounted for, Prince only hit 23 homers in 2004 at Huntsville. In short, younger players are often projected to have a goofy number of ABs and counting stats are affected accordingly. Even the rate stats (averages) need to be handled with care. If you know a guy's likely to get 250 ABs and he's projected for 450, you'll have to give the numbers some breathing room. Slumps or hot streaks are much more likely to stick out. You might want to take a look at the Projection systems thread Ennder started a few days ago; it contains a couple of links that might be helpful. (I can't attest to how helpful they might be; I haven't read them yet. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif)

That Baseball Prospectus positional average page is much tougher to read than its old text-only one. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif I assume position 10 is DH and position 11 is PH. What are positions -1 and 12? (Could 12 be pinch runner?) Klements, it looks like you took each NL positional average OPS and averaged it with each AL positional average OPS. That's probably good enough for a 'quick and dirty' calculation. But note that the NL has more teams, and thus more plate appearances. To be accurate, weighing each average according to plate appearances would probably the be the best.

Pointer1VB and Russ make me feel better about using ERA for the aggregate list of all pitchers and setting cutoffs. Ennder's comment still concerns me for using ERA for the individual pitcher part of the equation. And I'm happier with ERA+ to weed out ballparks. This brings me to some questions: Can we use Jeff's baseline ERAs and place individual pitchers' FIPs, xFIPs, or DIPS next to them? Or do we have to do the baselines over in terms of FIP, xFIP, or DIPS? Is there someone out there that can take Jeff's ERAs and turn them into ERA+s? I'd like to compare them to ERA+s that SoCal posted. I can do the formula, but I'm not sure which 'league factor' to use.

I haven't looked at it myself, but according to this site, the Baseball Prospectus reference is on p. 138 of the 2005 edition. That was noted in the text of the article but not in the bibliography entry. If it would please Wikipedia, I could figure out how to put page numbers in the bibliography entry. But given comments like this on the whine page, I'm not optimistic that that would be enough: Digging up some of the chats online seems to be a good idea, though. If Baseball Prospectus and a page number isn't enough, it would seem that the issue is quantity rather than quality. EDIT: Great idea about the WSSP stuff, Russ.

This is a wonderful piece. I wish he would have used a stat that's better than ERA. Then again, even though it's not a great stat, it's probably a fair tradeoff for the sake of simplicity. Jeff promises more on Friday. It should be interesting.

The page has been deleted again. So it won't be necessary to start from scratch again, here's a workable backup copy. Except for the Baseball Prospectus reference Adam added at the end, I think everything is preserved. Maybe someone who knows the ins and outs of Wikipedia can ask exactly what's needed. Apparently there's a deletion review process. This page may offer a clue. In the meantime, maybe we can pool some of the stuff pogokat suggests here in this thread.

The thread is old and the Suppan discussion has moved to a better place. But I had to mention this. Much more than any of the bad contracts, the two collusion rulings hurt the Brewers more than anything else before the 1994-95 work stoppage. Besides sending salaries spiraling to new highs, those huge payouts caused the franchise to be in significant debt for the first time in its history.

I was with my dad a couple years ago when that happened. The old sign saved him $100 on a TV. We pretty much insisted that he was entitled to the discount, especially since the sign caused him to choose Best Buy over a similar model at Circuit City across the street. Speaking of my dad, he got carded buying a six pack of beer last summer. He was four months shy of his 79th birthday, and it's probably fair to say he looks his age. Pick 'n Save cards everybody.

It's only eight figures, but it's still a good point.

You're probably right that many people here tend to blow off defense a bit. They probably have a decent excuse, however, in that defense is so hard to quantify. I have no problem with the idea that a player can 'make up' for some offense by being a good defender. "How much?" is always the question, though.

site:p092.ezboard.com would include some other ezBoards, but I can't imagine them getting in the way if the intention is to find something on Brewerfan.net. Google actually offers a free search gizmo for use on individual web sites. However, I don't have a clue what work would be necessary to adapt it to this message board.

site:p092.ezboard.com may be enough to do the trick. For those who aren't into remembering all the parameters Google offers, their advanced search offers a GUI.

The browser's in-page find feature is a nice supplement to TC's method. I use it a lot within threads, too, especially when something is quoted and I want to find who wrote the snippet in the first place.

I wouldn't get my undies in a bunch. In one article, Doug came right out and said that he didn't want to say too much. For all we know, he's lying. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif I'll even go a step further. If Suppan is signed, Melvin can probably look to deal Jenkins or Mench for anything his heart desires. With a starter acquired through free agency, he'll have the luxury of looking for the best available return. If that return isn't bullpen help, he could go for prospects.

For those who feel inclined to get into the nuts and bolts of a possible Sheets deal, let me suggest this thread: Should Brewers extend Sheets now, ala Carpenter? Otherwise, carry on..... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

I think that's the pertinent point when comparing Sheets' current contract to a potential Suppan deal. The 16-16 stuff would come into play if we were talking about a new deal for Sheets. It really doesn't have much to do with Suppan.

Sheets was signed in a different year and under a different pay scale (two of the contract years were pre-free agency). If Suppan is signed to a larger deal, there should be no reason for Ben to pout.

There are a couple articles somewhere where this was mentioned tenuously as somebody's speculation. In other words, the information was about as thin and sketchy as it gets. The rumor may have started in that not-very-dependable paper in Denver. At the very least, the thread title should have ended in a question mark. ------------------ EDIT 1: Voila! There's a "?" in the thread title now. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif EDIT 2: It appears that I gave the "rumor" too much credibility above. The only thing I'm finding connecting Milwaukee to Willy Taveras is a "proposal" on the team's mlb.com forum. A link posted in response to the original message erroneously connects what's said about Taveras near the top of the article to what's said about the Brewers at the bottom.

Most ranking systems tend to have a set of criteria that we can refer to. We can usually tell how much a system relies on stats, scouting reports, major league readiness, or ceilings. This one relies on points scored based on rankings by 17 different voters. There probably is no explanation to cover perceived discrepancies except for the fact that while there were 17 voters, there was one writer.

Yes, Marcus is a free agent. Had he been re-signed, there'd be a huge thread about it on the Major League forum by now. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

I didn't see the game, but what AJAY and obsessed are saying makes sense. It would have made sense to kick the series off with a biggie from the past.