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1992casey

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Everything posted by 1992casey

  1. 1992casey
    You can use ezCodes: Bold stuff here Or you can use HTML: Bold stuff here or Bold stuff here Another suggestion mentioned in the FAQ is to use a horizontal rule: in ezCode; or in HTML The horizontal rule is really the best way to separate a sig from the rest of the post. You'll see one as part of my sig below.
  2. 1992casey
    Can we assume that the fact that Brady's BABIP vs. the team is another warning sign, or should we be looking at something more complex, such as groundball, flyball, and line drive rates?
  3. 1992casey
    (reposted below due to formatting problems; thanks for the help, ja002h http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif)
  4. 1992casey
    Wow. It appears that Brady's allegedly increased production is essentially entirely due to singles. Home run and doubles rates are almost exactly the same. (Two triples in three years make them irrelevant.) Home runs, 2004: 7 homers in 420 PS = 1 per 60.0 PA Home runs, 2005: 9 homers in 528 PA = 1 per 56.8 PA Doubles, 2004: 18 doubles in 420 PA = 1 per 23.3 PA Doubles, 2005: 24 doubles in 528 PA = 1 per 22 PA Would his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) vs. the team be something to look at?
  5. 1992casey
    pogokat, That addresses the kind of stuff I had in mind when I originally started this thread. And it would seem to fit in with Al's comment when he says that "forecasting OXS isn't difficult to get close. But it would also seem, then, that unless we're either getting into a more sophisticated model or at least eyeballing things like walk rates, a 50 OPS point fluctuation either way due to luck shouldn't be an unexpected surprise at all. I don't look at batting average all that often, but I wonder if this wouldn't be an appropriate time to consider Brady's 2005 BA vs. career (or recent) numbers, comparing the difference between it and his OBP. I'm tending to agree with you; it's probably a very good time to consider Corey Hart for CF if he demonstrates a comfort level there over a larger sample of games. Still, as I mentioned above, I don't think Brady is any huge contract risk for next year, even as a relatively pricey 4th outfielder. I wouldn't rush to trade him, but I think it's very possible that another GM might happily overvalue him, too.
  6. 1992casey
    A single is less likely to drive in runs than a double and stolen bases don't drive in runs at all.
  7. 1992casey
    Of course, singles are more valuable in the scheme of things. But relating to the original question of predictability, wouldn't the drop in walks be a bad sign? Might some of the singles be attributable to luck?
  8. 1992casey
    Clark's month by month OPS: April: .806 May: .932 June: .696 July: .799 August: .530 Because of sample size, August can't really count. May is high, but lots of players have months like that. Nothing else really deviates very far from his .759 career number. In a case like Brady, who can be signed year to year, I wouldn't be all that afraid to figure he'd stay close to his career numbers next year, even at 34. If we were talking about having to sign him for 3 years, I'd think a lot differently.
  9. 1992casey
    Previous OXS/OPS and age?including a cursory examination of comparable players?is generally what I would look at. Don't the more complex systems rely a lot on other stats, though, such as K/BB ratio? As far as Brady goes, he's a perfect example of why we rely on stats. People rely an awful lot on memory, and what sticks out in their minds is his career month in May.
  10. 1992casey
    The game is probably also on 99.7, Black River Falls. Brewer Radio Network Packer Radio Network Unfortunately, the Brewers site probably doesn't list alternate stations.
  11. 1992casey
    1390 Wausau; 1490 Medford.
  12. 1992casey
    In the "Who should we aim to sign?" thread on the Major League forum, Al wrote: I certainly accept the accuracy of OXS and OPS. But at the risk of splitting hairs, this quote has me wondering if it wouldn't be more accurate to say that OXS is 98% accurate in correlating to runs scored? Don't other stats do a better job at predicting OXS/OPS than OXS/OPS themselves?
  13. 1992casey
    When the time comes, Brian should pin something to the top of all the forums.
  14. 1992casey
    One category missing from the above is clutch hitting. I can find the stuff, but I'm now too tired. Maybe another time unless someone beats me to it. This has always bugged me. When we evaluate players, we always talk about 10 runs being equal to a win. I've seen it so much I accept it as fact. But I'd love to see a couple links to more information about it.
  15. 1992casey
    I like the idea of original writing by Brewerfan.net paritcipants, with links to bibliographic material. I think the way to handle this is to make this thread a rough draft for something that could be used as a more polished FAQ. I see a two pronged approach. One would be to list links to potentially useful articles. The other would be ask questions we'd like to see answered. I'll get it going with some links: General Bill James PrimerTango on BaseballCyril Morong's Sabermetric ResearchSabernomics BlogDan Agonistes BlogBaseball Players and Age The Effects of Age on HittingIs Sosa Finished?Peak ages for hittersAge and Established Win SharesThe Science of ForecastingESPN.com: MLB - Cleveland's contracts could backfire (Dec., 2001)Age and Hitting IAge and Hitting IIAge and Hitting IIIWhat is a Normal Career Trajectory?Productive Outs Yet Another Productive Outs ArticleProductive Outs Are Not ProductiveProductive Outs IProductive Outs IIThe Truth About Productive OutsProductive Outs (Dan Agonistes Blog)The Effect of Ks Neyer - Swing and a miss: Not Milwaukee's biggest problemNeyer - Why pitchers desperately need K'sDo Strikeouts Matter?Just Another Out?Stat Descriptions Introduction to VORP: Value Over Replacement PlayerUltimate Zone Rating (UZR), Part 1Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), Part 2WHIP it good ... statistically (covers 8 different stats)And the Winning Number is... OPSMisc. Stats vs. Scouts: The Great DebateResisting the feud (critiques above article)13 Reasons Why Pro Baseball Can't Teach Hitting by Rob Ellis
  16. 1992casey
    Actually, GIMP is my motivation. The X11 windowing system is a pain; it isn't nice and clean like OS X. But not paying for Photoshop offsets the inconvenience.
  17. 1992casey
    I think the moderators here do a fine job. I would have a couple small requests, though. When a thread is locked, giving a brief reason why might help a similar situation from happening in the future. That happens most of the time, but it should be the practice all the time. When a thread is locked because it's a duplicate, making it a practice to always link to the thread with current discussion would be extremely helpful. Sometimes thread titles don't make their subject matter all that apparent. One thread was locked recently with only these words: "Locked, dupe." That would be enough to throw a newbie and could unintentionally imply elitism.I see tonight's thread or threads in question have been removed, so I can't quote exactly what was said that struck me. I'll try to paraphrase, though. A member suggested something like "there should be several venting threads." That's exactly the kind of thing moderators should want to prevent, and Brewerfan.net's mods do an excellent job of doing that.
  18. 1992casey
    Do we get extra credit for running UNIX programs under OS X?
  19. 1992casey
    Here's something to chew on. ezBoard is the only message board I know of that bumps a thread to the top for every little edit. Maybe people view that as desirable. I'm not sure myself, but I think I'd prefer that a new board format not do that.
  20. 1992casey
    I see Baseball Prospectus is now offering a "Baseball Prospectus Article Search" in the form of a traditional, old fashioned search plugin. That's good news for those who don't want to bother with ConQuery. (I decided I didn't like it.) To install the plugin, go where it says "Click here to automatically install it" near the top of the Baseball Prospectus Mozilla search plugins page.
  21. 1992casey
    I'm happy when Daron talks about OPS and Bill says nothing. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I'm also glad that he also refers to a league average OPS; that helps people get used to the stat. I'd love it if he did league average by position, but I think the way it's being presented is simpler for now.
  22. 1992casey
    San Francisco Giants Lineup Omar Vizquel SS Edgardo Alfonzo 3B Lance Niekro 1B Moises Alou RF Pedro Feliz LF Deivi Cruz 2B Marquis Grissom CF Mike Matheny C Kirk Rueter P Milwaukee Brewers Lineup Brady Clark CF Rickie Weeks 2B Lyle Overbay 1B Carlos Lee LF Geoff Jenkins RF Damian Miller C Bill Hall 3B J.J. Hardy SS Doug Davis P
  23. 1992casey
    J.J.'s OPS is up to .626.
  24. 1992casey
    It's back again. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif
  25. 1992casey
    Is the Brewerfan.net portion of this site currently down? I'm getting 502 Proxy Errors on every page I try.
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