GenoSeligPrieb

"Geno, i don't fully get what your really trying to get at. Are you saying that you'd prefer the Brewers had brought back Estrada instead of signing Kendall?" I'm not sure, Danzig. When I hear that he was injured in the exact areas where he was killing us last season, it made me think he was fixable, and he could bounce back a bit. With him, I'm uncertain about making a definitive asssessment, because of the injuries. But Kendall? He just got...bad...most likely from overuse...and he's probably wearing down. But apparently, Johnny was bad for the team to have around (but if you're the manager, you get a contract extension! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ), so if that's true, then fine, he can go, if he was causing that much dissension. So be it. I just feel Doug jumped REAL quickly at securing Kendall, when he could have looked around a bit. And getting Mota and his full contract in exchange? Also bad.

"I just don't think it's anything but reasonable to expect (at worst) a .330 OBP from Kendall next year. Given the crap we had in 2007, that's a very significant upgrade. EDIT: The 2007 numbers for JK tell us what we could plausibly expect from him in '08. See, they don't necessarily, though. To you, they do 100% (give or take). " More like 50-60%. I did type "plausibly expect." And again, numbers from 2007...recent stats for such an old codger, are more likely to be reflective of where his career is these days, than back when he used to hit when he was younger. You expect JK to rebound, even though there was no tangible injury excuse, or sudden league switch, or divorce, or other personal issues. And that's fine. But I'm saying it's Estrada, who's younger, and sustained 2 procedures to clean up problems in the EXACT areas (running and throwing) that we were all griping so much about. Out of the 2, they'll both probably underperform in 2008, but the bounce-back factor looks like it could favor Estarda better than Kendall, since JE at least WAS injured. My meaningless predictions for the 2, this season?: JK - .257-2-45 in 550 PAs starting a LOT with no dependable backup, stealing 2 of 4, with an OBP of .320-.325, and an OPS like the mark of the beast, .666. Double-digit passed balls, again, and the Caught Stealing rate? In Oakland, he threw out 20.2% which was bad, but for the Cubs, he threw out only 5 of 57 (8.8%), so I'll charitably spot him maybe 15%. JE - .266-7-35 in 325 PAs backing up LoDuca, stealing 0 of 0 (he won't even try, repaired knees or no!). OBP: .310, and an OPS of .720. Because he won't play as often, 3 PBs, and the CS rate will improve with the elbow healing, from his Brewers 13.2%, to a still-crappy 18%. I still wish DM could have acquired an ex-Ranger (what a novel concept!) like a Gerald Laird, or he could have gone back to the Diamondbacks again, and picked up a Chris Snyder, who at least can throw out baserunners, while playing decent D, batting 8th. Oh well...

OK, TLB, my kids are upstairs watching the "Transformers" movie, leaving me with little better to do than butt in! So, I'll bite: "His time in Oak. in 2007 saw BB/SO numbers so out of whack with his career norms, that you almost have to throw them away out of principle. I fully expect Kendall to be around a .335 OBP with defense as bad as Estrada's at worst. Basically, any hitting of his upside by Kendall will mean our improvement at C is monstrous" You CAN'T just dismiss and throw away Kendall's 2007 performance in Oakland. If it was 1997, then yeah. But less than a year ago, for the A's, he played the same position, he was healthy, and he was still used the same way. The 2007 numbers for JK tell us what we could plausibly expect from him in '08. And if you want to dismiss some 2007 stats for a Brewer catcher, make it Estrada. JE's running speed was atrocious. And he couldn't throw any basestealers out. But after the season, Estrada had arthroscopic surgery on his left knee and had a bone spur removed from his right (throwing) elbow. Don't you think those 2 surgical areas were causing him to a) run much slower, and b) not be able to throw as well as he he used to? He may have been a grouch, and Kendall's our resident Horse Whisperer. But according to an article in the Nationals' team website, Estrada's is upbeat, his knee is back to normal, and his elbow is healing: "He said Tuesday that the knee is 100 percent and that he is throwing 140 feet in a throwing program. "I'm getting stronger every day I throw. I feel great. I put something on it," Estrada said. "There's no doubt that I'll be ready for Spring Training." He may not recover fully. And Estrada may or may not be a jerk, for all we know. But Kendall was healthy, and played just as poorly. What was his excuse?

I couldn't get it to launch. Did he sound as sincere as Francisco Cordero was?

And in other "Too Late Now!" news, snuck by at a more opportune time, and released to the media, well after the fact: - The mozzarella cheese used to make those Pizza Hut Stuffed Crust pies that you already ate? The cheese came, not from cow milk, but from rats! - Britney Spears's publicist revealed that the pop star already signed a deal last March, to open her own chain of hair salons. - RC2 Corp says that your toddlers are already playing with millions of toys, manufactured in China, of the new Thomas the Tank Engine locomotive, Asbesty and the new engineer, Mr. Paint Chips. - Dr. Phil agreed to a contract extension for 3 more TV seasons...now that he stopped visiting starlets in the hospital, with cameras filming. - ESPN belatedly released a tape, showing Roger Clemens injecting Peter Gammons with truth serum. - DreamWorks announced that they secretly filmed "Norbit 2."

.296? .301? Meh. Not the major upgrade that so many here think. And I'll grant you, trwi, that the gap between Kendall's BA and OBP suggests that he apparently does work the count better. However, given their huge 94-point gap in slugging, it can be said that Estrada got more hits, and the odds were better that they could be of the extra-base variety. But since Estrada couldn't run, he must have pounded the bejeezus out of those 25 doubles he got, since he was able to coast into 2nd base all those times. Hell, he probably hit what would have been bases-clearing triples for other guys, driving in more runs, than Kendall, who in 43 more plate appearances, only hit 20 doubles and 1 triple. And I'm not even touching upon the home run disparity. Estrada's offense and defense were unacceptable in '07, and Kendall looks to do the same in '08....only for double the salary, and from the right batter's box. "As for the speed debate you have to look at who he's replacing and Estrada makes Kendall look like Rickey Henderson.' I love hyperbole, too, but RICKEY Henederson? Kendall stole successfully 3 of 7 times last year. DAVE or KEN Henderson, maybe!

"Kendall upgrades OBP at a position that desperately needed an OBP upgrade and can't possibly be worse than Estrada both behind the plate and behind the bases. By nature of his OBP and speed, Kendall is worth quite a number of extra bases this year." Not to single you out, Toby, but for a guy who's supposed to provide such a lift from an on-base-percentage standpoint, Kendall's OBP last year was .301. And as for speed, he stopped being speedy years ago. Reaching back over the last 5 years (I can't go back much further than that to compare to the 33...soon 34-year-old we have now), Kendall was successful at stealing only 41 of 68 times, for a poor 60.3% success rate. He has no power, he's another right-handed hitter, he can't throw out basestealers, and he's not cheap. Jason may be a better clubhouse presence for all we know, but as for his on-the-field production? Bad. As I mentioned before, if we're going to have a big slugging lineup, THIS is the seaosn we can afford a defense-first, bazooka-armed catcher in there, who'll bat 8th anyway. Even if Kendall scales the heights of a .333 OBP, he still can't hit, so we may as well have acquired a better arm and glove back there.

Wow. It's amazing to almost smell the condescension from someone from Fox. OK, of course the Brewers dashed a lot of hopes last year, mine included. And I can't call them the best team in the NL right now. But migod, the "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss" line he stole from Pete Townshend simply doesn't apply. The Brewers no longer have Bando and Taylor shaping our drafts, our farm system is feeding capable players to the parent club, and the new boss, Mark Attanasio is NOT the old boss because he's outspending the Seligs nearly 3 tiimes over. It's OK to read a dissenting opinion, but as you noted, it seems like Karabell didn't take the time to ready any trends, and because we're not a New York team, he wasn't interested enough to bother. If anyone's basing even part of their fantasy draft on what this careless "journalist" writes, then I hope they're in my league this year!

Oh, absolutely! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif I just picked the silliest sounding ones, regurgitated the supressed memory of the time I failed to do a full immersion into the Sabremetrics baptismal font, and had JaNelson therefore dismiss me as a "Casual Fan." Ahh, good times.

"I still don't think I'll ever understand the "good game caller". I mean is it in some way how he talks to the pitchers? Do pitchers rarely have to shake off his signs? To me it always seems like bad offensive catchers get pegged as this." True dat, Glennron. Jason Kendall: The Brewers 2008 Designated Horse Whisperer.

While I don't have the software to make the design happen, I was thinking along the lines of mixing the movie logo with an image of our manager, for "YostBusters!" Nedly could appear trapped behind the red cross-out logo, somehow. http://www.armyofinbetween.com/images/films/ghostbusters.jpg Or a derisive slogan with something like: Casual Fan on the front and on the back No VORP No PECOTA No Problem...

OK, then, Russ, since Bush, Capuano, Kendall...can all have somewhat logical statistical defenses presented on their behalf, how 'bout a nice challenge? Anything nice to say about Claudio Vargas? Tony Gwynn, Jr? Or the 3rd head of the Brewers Cerebrus, Johnny Estrada? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Have at it!

Our catcher is a great clubhouse presence...he calls a good game...he handles a pitching staff well...he blocks balls in the dirt... In 2008, it's Jason Kendall. In past years, when defending a poor-hitting old catcher who doesn't throw out basestealers, all you had to do was substitute the name Keith Osik....Gary Bennett....Eddie Perez...Jesse Levis... I'm not pining for a return to the Johnny Estrada era. But he WAS injured last year. That probably had a lot to do with his failures, especially how damned slow he ran. Estrada was also bad at throwing out runners, which I can't accept from our catcher. So again, Estrada wasn't even good, but I have to say a LOT of the vitriol targeted at Estrada...and the lovefest for Kendall...is based on so many perceptions fans have of them. Think of it this way: If Estrada walked 12, 16 more times last year, and raised that OBP to the .320-ish area, would he still be so reviled around here? Sure, he still couldn't throw out my mother-in-law stealing, but neither can Kendall. Bottom line, for me at least: We replaced a more powerful, switch-hitting catcher who's 2 years younger, for half the salary, and who MAY rebound a bit from injury...with a catcher who, even when healthy, was also below average and old. Hell, given the offense we already have from the rest of the batting order, THIS is the year the Brewers could sustain having a defense-only catcher, one preferably with a cannon arm, batting 8th. The problem was that we'd always play a slob like Blanco or Matheny every day when the rest of the offense was godawful. Overall? Kendall? Estrada? Meh.

"I would like to see Fielder, Braun, and Hart locked up for a long time." Personally, I'd like to see Scott Boras locked up for a long time. He can bunk with Bonds and Clemens. I'd love to keep Prince until he's...oh...40, but Boras will "guide" him to the Yankees as soon as contractually possible. Braun may be more possible, if for no other reason than, his career is not managed by Boras. I think it may be too early for the rest of these guys, though. I'm still not 100% sold on Weeks as a guy we should invest in long term just yet. He showed some major flashes of brilliance later in the season, but overall so far? Meh. Hardy too. He's solid and all, but replaceable. Hart's beginning to distinguish himself the best of these 3, but I'd like to see how he does this year. If it's August, and Corey has 20+ HRs, and is hitting .280 with an OP above .800, keep him. And YoGa is so inexperienced that I can't see Doug attempting a long-term deal with him until at least 2010. Maybe a long-term deal for Counsell? kidding....

Sadly, she came from the same assembly line that gave the world the vanilla Chris McKendry, Dana Jacobsen and Megan Mawicke. Now if FSN could somehow lure THIS Pulitzer-Prize winner: http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/5922/ea89aayt0.th.jpg http://img183.imagevenue.com/loc430/th_09418_EA90_123_430lo.jpg to Brewer games, I'd drive up for every one!

"...whether or not a manager got the most wins out of his talent. For example -- letting Mench bat against Dempster -- DM should have seen that, and IMO, realized that most managers that could fog a mirror would not have made that move" Nice line, FTJ. I also forgot the LaRussa feud. It was a classic case of a great, winning manager taking a poor one to school. "There were also probably just as many games that Ned 'won' for us, and just as many that players 'won'/'lost'. " OK, I'm trying to be equitable here, but I just can't find instances when we said "Great move, Ned!" A key double-switch...a move that paid off, such as when Gwynn was able to leg out a roller that the guy he pinch -hit for, couldn't. A stolen base decision that got us a game-tying run (a la Dave Roberts in the '04 ALCS). To be fair, Ned very well MAY have made a move or 2 like that, and I'm not aware of them. But I'd surmise that, over the 2007 season, it was probably Ned on the Plus side of the ledger +3 game saving decisions, and Ned on the Minus side, perhaps -8 or so, for an overall loss of 5 games. Dare to dream if we had a neutral manager, whose moved cancelled each other out! Brewers/Diamondbacks in the 2007 playoffs...

"My thoughts exactly. The performance of a team is based on the performance of the players." Sure. But if a manager puts the wrong player in a situation he's not best-suited for, then it's on the manager. It would have been hilarious if, on August 30th, in that situation, Mench heads out to the on-deck circle, but Jenkins tackles him, subdues him, and screams at Ned: "NO! I'M batting against Dempster! For the good of the team!!" After the dugout applause subsides, Jenkins succeeds and we tie the game. But no, that can't happen, because players can't take the situation into their on hands. "There's no real way to prove or disprove these claims because their no magical algorithm to calculate a managers performance. I find it amusing when people pull out some random number and say "Yost cost us _ wins." If they can find some way to prove that other than saying "he made a bad move here, here, and here," I'll give them a cookie." I agree that there's no reliable formula to determine manager effectiveness (although I'm sure someone here will deliver one, this morning http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ), but I cited specific examples (hell, I even gave quotes and game dates!) when Ned's decisions, and not the players forced to execute them) cost the Brewers at least 4, maybe games in the standings. What if Sheets gets sprayed by a skunk in his yard, and is out until May, and Ned tabs Prince Fielder as our Opening Day starting pitcher? Through a combo platter of bad umpiring, bad pitching and bad luck, Prince gives up 8 earned runs in the 1st, and we lose. Prince was the one responsible for pitching poorly, but if Ned sent him out there in a poor managerial decision, then who's to blame? OK, that was a bit of hyperbole on my part of course, but was it REALLY all Corero's fault for the loss when he was sent out there for a 3rd straight day on August 5th against the Phillies, and he lost the game? Was Counsell really a # 3-hole hitter all those times Ned yanked Braun for defensive replacement iin the 7th inning, and Counsell wound up batting an inning or 2 later? It's the manager's job to place players in the optimal situations to maximize their effect, but so, so often, Ned failed to do that. By the way, I'm partial to white chunk macadamia cookies!

"I just don't think the Diamondbacks are one of them to an extreme extent. They probably deserved to out perform it by a small amount because of how strong the bullpen was but I still see them as a .500ish team going into the year and Haren alone doesn't turn that into a playoff team." Ennder: Your point is well-taken on Arizona, but they DID augment that talent this winter, and Randy Johnson just may be good for a few more wins. The Diamondbacks seem legit. But don't you think the Rockies were a fluke, like the White Sox in '05? A perfect storm seemed to converge so neatly for Colorado last year. Pitchers like Herges, Affeldt, Corpas, even Redman somehow managed to shave a run to a run and a half off their career ERAs last season, much like Chicago did 3 years ago when hacks like Garland, Hermanson, Politte, Cotts and Buehrle started pitching lights out all at the same time, and then reverted right back to usual in the next 2 seasons. I see stars like Holliday, Atkins, Helton and Hawpe staying as solid as ever, but it's entirely possible that the league may catch up to guys like Tulo, Tavares, Spilborghs, Ubaldo, Franklin Morales... That winning streak, a bad call at home plate by that ump against San Diego, guys like Ubaldo? I'd bet against that all happening again so quickly.

"I guess the question would be "why is Yost on the hot seat?"....I really don't care who the manager is, I just disagree that changing the manager is going to make much difference." Logan: The short answer comes from George W Bush, via Pete Townshend: "...fool me once, shame on....shame on...we won't get fooled again!" The first time Ned guided the Brewers to a monumental collapse was 2005. OK, that may have been an aberration. The talent wasn't there, perhaps. Injuries...all that. But 2007's collapse suggests a trend. Ned apparently can't seem to manage for the stretch run. When the chips are down, he doesn't adjust and react to the situation. If we're leading on the road, it's chiseled in stone that the Closer therefore must be brought in, but not before the bottom of the 9th. Hell, Ned has quoted that one directly to Haudricourt from the Unwritten Rules of Baseball Guidebook. If he prefers Mench, and the situation calls for a lefty bat, he's sticking with Mench. It's the 7th inning, and we're down 1, but because the book says Braun has to be replaced, defensively, guess what? Counsell's batting 3rd now, ahead of Prince in the 9th. When we need that extra bat in the lineup against a high-powered offense, but Ned's calendar calls for the backup catcher to start that day? Then a .210 hitter is in there, regardless. No adjustments on the fly. He's incapable. And a team with talent like ours demands a capable, experienced strategist as manager. We've matured past the days of "rah-rah-get-the-young-un's-some-inspiration." Prince will be the Yankees 1st baseman in a few years when Scott Boras guides him there. Weeks, Hardy, Braun...they won't be Brewers indefinitely. We're at the level now where the Brewers are ready to move up to playoff-caliber baseball, and with Ned costing us 2, 3, probably 5 games a year, we may not make it to the playoffs due to his bumbling. And then, when Mark and Doug discover we missed the boat a few times maybe, just maybe, because of Ned? It'll be too late, and this rare window of opportunity when the Cardinals and Astros are asleep at the switch, coupled with our once-in-a-generation Brewer talent level, will be closed. Think of it this way, Logan. You say a manager makes no difference? If we had someone even half as talented as Piniella, Leyland, LaRussa, Francona...would they have stubbornly kept Mench in there against a tiring, punchy righty reliever, when better lefty (and righty!) bats were available? Multiply that situation by 3, 4 or 5 other similar bad, game-changing, game-losing decisions, and it DOES make the difference between the Brewers making the playoffs or not.

"Isn't that only counting the number of ER, though? I'd bet Turnbow let waaayy more inherited runners score than Howry.' You beat me to this one, TLB. And guess what? When you give up more than 1 earned run in your appearance, that makes your ERA skyrocket! 9 of those 15 times last year, he gave up 2 earnies or more. Those'll turn close games, tie games, into blowout losses, quick. Howry gave up 2 earnies or more, letting the game he was supposed to be preserving, get away, only 5 times, of course a 4-game swing, which can help explain why Howry with his 3.32 ERA was more effective more often than 'Bow.

There's this one dork on WSCR middays who sounds like Dr. Demento, Mike Murphy. He skews old as hell, practically shines the shoes of his sponsors, interrupts the flow of the show by clapping and singing the sponsor's names and jingles, and overall comes off as if he's doing radio in the Council Bluffs instead of the #3 market in the country. And when Santana Claus got traded to the Mets, he whined "Why can't the CUBS get a major star like this?" Obviously, he forgot about Fukudome, Soriano, and the salary-absorbing trades of Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee and Michael Barrett, to name a few. Again, I don't hate the Cubs. I just can't. But when I hear crap like this, I'm just not as sad when they fall short.

"In 2007, we had the talent to win a very weak, easy division, and we didn't do it. Somehow, after a 24-10 start, we managed to add Gallardo AND Braun and stay relatively healthy, and still finish the season 10 games under .500 after the 24-10 start, while choking away an 8.5 game division lead. Honestly, I was a big Yost fan until '07. He lost me last year." Every sentence is on the nose for me, except the 2nd-to-last one, adam, but you were close! From a 1 to 10, with 1 being a hater, and 10 being a Ned-lover, I was more like a 3. But I can pin it down to ONE game which crystallized his crapulence as a manager, when he specifically lost me, too: That night game at Wrigley, August 30th in the top of the 9th. With righty Ryan Dempster on the ropes, and better options available, defying logic, Ned stuck with Mench, and....well, you can imagine what happened. From Tom's game article the next day in the Journal-Sentinel : The Brewers had their chance to avoid another tough loss in the ninth, when they loaded the bases with two outs against Cubs closer Ryan Dempster, who walked Corey Hart to force in a run. But Kevin Mench bounced to short on the first pitch he saw from Dempster to end the game. Mench was hitting .215 against right-handers and Yost had Geoff Jenkins, a .271 hitter against righties, available on the bench. But Yost said he didn't consider Jenkins' career numbers against Dempster (4 for 17) compelling enough to make a switch. "I went with the flow of the game," Yost said. "That was it for me. (Mench) was in the game." If this was a playoff game, Ned would have barbecued worse than Grady Little. The team continued to circle the drain, for a 2nd Ned collapse of biblical proportions. But not only did he escape with his job intact, but management didn't even hold it against him. If we make the playoffs this year with Ned still in charge, it'll be either because a) our talent is as good as Boston's or Detroit's, or b) The Cubs and Reds will have major injuries to half their teams.

"A catcher just makes a suggestion, the pitcher has to approve it." - adambr2 "This is what always baffles me about the 'calls a good game' pat on the back for catchers. It just seems like something for which you give credit when you don't have much else good to say about a C." - TLB Both very well said, fellas. I've always held that, as catchers go, the worse a hitter you are, the better you call a game...and don't forget how well you're suddenly able to block balls in the dirt....like Keith Osik, only he was pretty bad. Conversely, if you're a slugging catcher, you're probably labeled as a defensive liability. Like Russell Martin, only he's pretty good.

Sadly, I don't think it is Ned's Last Stand. When Mark jumped in with those 2 horrifying votes of confidence in Septembe 3rd and on the last day of the season, among the things he noted was that the Brewers are playing before bigger crowds, TV ratings were up, and the team finished with a winning record. "Ned is fine" we were told. And that 500-lb. gorilla in the room - another historic 2nd half choke job by a team managed by Ned - was never mentioned. THAT'S how low the bar is set. And if Sheets gets hurt this season? Any other starting position player? Ned may even get an extension. If his job hasn't been even questioned yet, why now?

1. Diamondbacks 2. Mets 3. Cubs 4. Brewers 5. Phillies 6. Rockies 7. Dodgers 8. Braves 9. Reds 10. Padres 11. Astros 12. Cardinals 13. Giants 14. Pirates 15. Nationals 16. Marlins