GenoSeligPrieb

"it's not a projection for the future, but rather what a player would have done had they spent the year in the majors. MLEs have a long track record of accuracy, although there will always be outliers. " Although my intense contempt for this statistic is well-documented, Joe, I understand you're simply providing a service of sorts here, so that's cool. That said, if it can't be used as a projection or a predictive tool, then MLE's accuracy can't be measured honestly, right? Anyone can say Corey Hart's performance at AAA therefore means he equated to as good as an average MLB corner outfielder, but what good is it if he's not dealing with MLB pitchers, ballparks, media, paychecks, crowds, teammates, pressures? The furthest I'd be willing to go would be to equate someone's minor league performance from the lower rungs of the ladder, i.e. High-A performace *1.123456789% = AA, or something similar. But as we've seen so many times, the leap to the majors is fraught with too many personal influences/issues to invoke any kind of formula. I'm not calling you specifically on the carpet, JH...nothing personal. I just want someone who refers to this as gospel to prove why it's worthwhile to us skeptics.

"Again, look above. Runs created doesn't work well at all when looking at individual players." OK, then why is it so widely used, and quoted as gospel, when comparatively debating the offensive merits of just about every player we've ever discussed? Honestly, I'm not being combative, but we've all read the threads where someone asserts that Ichiro Suzuki is a terrific offensive force, but that person is told Suzuki isn't that good because his OPS is not high enough. It's just not true. Scrubs like Jack Cust and Keith Ginter are hailed as stars because of OPS and in reality, they can't keep a job as a starter in the big leagues. And even Vladimir Guerrero was dogged a bit in this forum because his aggressive batting behavior leads to lower OBP totals. OPS is an effective gauge to assess a player's offensive worth. But we can't lose sight of the fact that so many of these high OPSs we're seeing from partial seasons can too often be attributed to favorable splits against pitchers these platooners tend to hit better. An OPS figure is blind to a 75/25 split in a batter's favor. A Wes Helms can turn in an .844 OPS, but it doesn't discern that most of those at bats are the result of favorable match-ups. If Adam LaRoche were to face lefty pitchers regularly, he would be abysmally bad, but again, his OPS shows an interpretation-free .729 (which isn' event THAT good).

"Geno, if it is 98% accurate for teams, who are teams made up of...players. You can argue that it's slightly less accurate for individuals, but when you add them up, it's still 98%. " I hear ya, Al, but as expected, I have a few issues with this explanation: First of all, OBP is fueled by plate appearances and NOT at bats. As we know, walks aren't factored into at bat totals, so there's more than a 2% accuracy skew right there, right? Secondly, I'll never be convinced that a formula can ever be used to 98% correctly track a player's offensive contributions if it doesn't account for bad baserunning, smart situational hitting (i.e., not grounding out when there's 1 out and the tying run on 3rd) or at least SOME nod to hitting when men are on base. Also, you concede that, on a player-vs-player basis, OPS falls below the 98% accuracy rate. How far would you say, though? I'd say it drops quite a bit, even when comparing a 2004 player vs. his own 2005 output. It's that tough to factor. Finally, you've got to admit that a player valuation methodology which doesn't account for fielding shouldn't be used as the ultimate statistical tool in just about every argument one makes. Appreciate the push-back. Good debate, Al...

98% 98% 98%... Just saying it in every other post doesn't make OPS 98% accurate. I can buy the notion that OPS can be a highly-accurate tool for predictive run production measures. But on a player-vs-player basis, I want to be convinced that it returns a 98% accuracy rate.....If you can categorically PROVE it's 98% right. If not, you can't say it, Al...

...as we go for the sweep! Remember, last week I said I'd pee my Sans-A-Belts if the Brewers swept The Evil Empire. Well, to make sure everything goes as planned, I've already hit McDonald's this morning, since they've brought back their 96 oz. soft drinks. For lunch, it's a gallon of Tampico, followed up by the entire contents of a 750 ml of Cutty Sark, rocks. Let the good times flow!

It's a dirty job, but someone's gotta start a game thread. And yes, Jeff Weaver, with his squinty eyes and unkempt long blonde hair, DOES resemble the late Nirvana icon, doesn't he? All he needs is a nasty, combative wife like Mrs. Quevedo, and he's in...

My annual game thread!

I want to thank Russell Branyan. - For having such an uneventful career up until his time as a Brewer. That made him affordable enough that even a Selig-owned team can bring in a legitimate slugging 3B, to fill the gaping hole we've had there for the last 5 years or so. - For making it almost impossible for Ned to even suggest that Helms play even 1/2 the time, now. Opening Day impressions are lasting ones, and if Ned were to start Helms again soon, he'd be a laughingstock. Now the decision is academic, where even Ned's friendship can't help Helms anymore. - Finally, and most importantly, for bringing back some pride, however little we have, regardless of how we finish up this season. He's a Brewer I can point to, with pride, and say he's one of ours. Honesttogod, as I heard the SRO crowd erupt with that 2nd center field home run, I started craining my neck upward for the first time in years. Then the curtain call made me choke up a teeny tiny bit. It was a moment in our progression from perennial debt-retiring doormats to respectable franchise. I miss that feeling. I honestly don't WANT to always be so damned negative, but the Seligs never gave me reasons to have hope, and think otherwise. I want reasons to be positive, as I was 13 years ago. OK, this is only the Pirates, and there's a long season ahead, and we still have some major holes. But here's hoping Carlos Lee, Overbay, Sheets, Doug Davis and Russell continue to provide the thrills and pride again. We're on the way back. Today, I began to really feel it...

"And if Clark aggrivates his injury, or its found to be worse than orignially thought, Magruder's going to get a lot more playing time." Can we bring up Dave Krynzel to take over center? Ya know, for like the next 160 games/ http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif Brady Pipp... Sorry, couldn't resist. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

"I don't get the Hate for Lenny if you compare Durrington's numbers and project the abysmal numbers of Cirillo. What exactly is everyone's problem with a backup who's better than league average? " Dave: Although, believe me, I had (have) negative inclinations toward The Weapon when he was here, I agree that a .355 OBP, a .305 average and some nice versatility should not have warranted the huge wave of criticism he got here. But I will say that I cringed whenever he'd bat 3rd (!), and was touted as a stud, because, as we all know, the sure way to fix a last place team is by adding a pinch hitter (and then starting him!).. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif More than anything, though, around here, he was a pariah because he was old, and he didn't make the league minimum.

"Krynzel with a fantastic catch into the wall. " That's 2 days in a row where Dave makes a spectacular running catch by the wall....while Brady lets Podsednik get one by him yesterday, and an inside-the-parker today. Hmmm... I'm just sayin'! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif

"Actually, if RB is adequate defensively, I like him a lot at 3B next year. Like I pointed out in several other threads, Branyan is not that much worse than Troy Glaus, who will likely get big bucks this offseason." Sorry, Joe, but NO, Russell Branyan is not even close to Troy Glaus. Don't get me wrong. The fact that Branyan is allowed to even occasionally force Helms to the bench is a wonderful thing, his D seems more than adequate, and his .571 slugging % (albeit in only 200+ plate appearances) this year is a welcome sight on a team with so little power. But Troy is a former World Series MVP, who's capable of stringing 30+ and even 40+ HR seasons together, while stealing around 10 bases a year. Glaus's BA is 23 points higher, his OPS is 53 points higher, and he's even 8 months younger. For the money, if you're willing to look past all those damned strikeouts? Sure, RB is a good value. But if the money's not the issue (and it finally may not be issue #1 with this team!), then I take Glaus every time.

"There it is again: "young Milwaukee hitters" " I'm willing to cut Tony Gwynn some slack from last night. Some may argue that he should know the Brewers a bit better because it's his son's organization. But a) Junior isn't even close to playing with these esteemed Brewer legends yet, and b) how many dads can rattle off the names of their sons' co-workers? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Tony's a national announcer who, understandably, doesn't follow a last place team whom he never covers, too closely. And in terms of calling the Brewers a "young" team, I think he was trying to be kind. Young almost always equals bad, like a poor-hitting catcher = defensive star, right? And for most, "young" = "This is...what?...his second year?...He must be...25?" But that crappy lineup we keep sending out there is littered with (until now) career backups like Clark, Bennett, Branyan, Overbay and Branyan, who rarely have seen extensive playing time before. So the perception is, since I haven't seen much of them before, and they stink, then they're probably young. Tony seems like a decent guy, which is welcome in this age of in-your-face commentators, and who knows?, maybe next year or if he's still around in '06, Mr. Gwynn may become more comfy in the booth and be able to speak out a bit better. Look at Rick Sutcliffe. He's getting very comfortable calling games now, but he was pretty generic and stiff at first. Friday night, when that fan in the first row in Yankee Stadium failed to grab an easy potential home run ball as Manny Ramirez reached in and snatched it away from him, Rick said, "That was a gimme...And judging by that fan in the grey shirt's reaction, that wasn't the first beer he's had tonight." Priceless!

"Well it's terrible premature to say that Hendrickson "silenced" his critics. It was just one game against the Pirates, but he has now had as many good starts on the year as Obie." Nicely stated, as always, igor. Keeping it in perspective, it was a solid effort. I hope I'm not beating this into the dirt, but as I've written before, BH had nothing more to prove in AAA, Obermueller is a proven failure, yet Ned felt compelled to demote young Ben, and, despite the fact that Obie-Wan didn't EARN being promoted back to the majors, Obermueller got more chances to blow. If Ned's hand has to be physically forced to pencil in BH's name into the starting lineup over Obermueller by Doug for the rest of the season, then so be it. We'd better not see Obie-Wan start another game for the Crew ever again.

Once a year, I get to start one!

I gots a few questions, if I were in a position to ask Ned and/or Doug... "This is the big leagues. You have to go out and get the job done on a consistent basis." - Ned Yost, on why Kinney was DFA'ed. So, who gets the promotion to replace him? Someone who goes 0-3, with a 5.19 ERA in the minors, and unspeakably bad numbers in the majors? And when Obermueller gets lit up like a blunt in Rickey Williams's rumpus room, was Ned actually surprised?

"11-6, 2 more runs and the crew is officially back "in the game" Sorry, Russ, but with one out, and Clark & Helms due up with runners on, you're not really back in the game. These 2 clowns couldn't drive anyone home if they had a school bus, and it was a block and a half away.

I give up. Obviously, Wes Helms never recovered from slipping on that wet ramp...he was never able to play baseball anymore...he voided the remainder of his contract...his wife left him...his kids won't return his calls...he developed an alcohol problem...all his friends deserted him...his credit rating was destroyed...he now lives in a cardboard box...his life was ruined forever... What? None of those things happened, he came right back to work a few weeks later, his friends and family still love him, and his loved ones are set for life, financially? Never mind. I wasn't ridiculing a handicapped person falling out of a wheelchair, or a soldier dying. An athlete took a header, and I made a joke. This will dog me to my grave, I tell ya...

"There's probably a difference between making a crack about a slick hallway and the wet ramp being selected for the all-star game. " Or more likely, there's NO difference. Ueck lightened up, and Rich Dauer joked about it last month, too. No one wanted to see him paralyzed or even his career ended, Brian...

"Little has been simple for the Brewers' offense since the All-Star break. The team is 4-11 since the break while batting 11-for-110 (.100) with runners in scoring position. On Thursday, Brewers hitters went 0-for-9 in run-scoring chances..." But I thought OBP, OBP, OBP was all that mattered. Everything else is trivial, right? Or maybe...a MIX of OBP guys with 2 or 3 more sluggers placed at the right spots to drive them IN, was a successful formula for scoring runs. RBI guys cost money, though, which Bud refuses to spend on his club...which begs this question: How many will we leave on base tonight? It was 8 yesterday, with zero runs, for a negative 8 rating. Tonight against Pittsburgh, it'll be 7 left on base, with 2 runs, for a -5. Any other guesses?

"God i hate Obie,why does this scrub get so many chances to stink up the joint.Even most of the outs he gets are rockets that find a glove." I'd LOVE to get on a call-in show or a Q&A on the web, and corner Ned, asking him why he continues to give the Brewers virtually no chance in hell of winning just about every game Obermueller starts. I'd also ask him why Clark has to start so damned often, too, of course, but that's for another thread... Honesttogod, what rational explanation could Ned give for putting this team behind the 8-ball every 5th game? Ned CAN prevent this, but chooses not to, and I'd like to know why. Again, I don't wish physical harm upon Obermueller. But for the longer term future of this season, for the greater good if you will, if tonight's latest ass-kicking forced Obermueller either to the pen, to the Indianapolis Indians or to his life's work riding shotgun on a garbage truck, then yes, I'm GLAD it happened. Just watch, the Brewers, down 5-1 thanks to this clown, will rally and win 6-5, and people like Bill "Big Unit" Michaels, Drew Olson and Harold will note our W/L record in games Good Ol' Oby starts, and say "he kept us in the game...he didn't LOSE...he battled, but was getting squeezed...he actually pitched pretty well...it's Grieve's fault, and...it was a quality start!!" And next week, when his turn comes up again, he'll be right back out there, as Matt Wise watches... *sigh* OK, my venting is over. I fell better...

"I probably agree, unless they put Obie on a 60 pitch count or a five inning limit." How about this? Ned puts Obermueller on a strict, 1-pitch count tonight. If Cristian Guzman homers on that pitch, which is very possible, we may not recover, given our offense. But I'm banking on Good Ol' Oby bouncing it in the dirt or hurling it to the screen on a fly. If that happens, then you bring in the REAL starter, Matt Wise, and he takes it from there. That's the only way we have a fighting chance with the fool on the hill out there tonight. Ned believes that We Can Work It Out, but it'll be a Hard Day's Night. OK, I'll stop now...

"We're happy with Haynes' progress. That's why we extended him (his contract)." Reds GM Dan O'Brien, after Jimmy Haynes turned in a 2-12 record with 6.30 ERA last season, and agreeing to pay him $2.5 million in 2004. - Bud Selig....the man who added multiple, unnecessary, underfunded expansion teams, detonated the traditonal playoff and division structures, sold out Opening Day to be played on foreign soil, and made interleague play a meaningless addition to the baseball season. - Brewerfan rookie, bucksbeat If we're not, then we'd better get out of the way of the other 29 teams who are. RoCo Sorry, RoCo, but... Carl Yastrzemski? Cecil Cooper? Joe Morgan? Rickey Henderson? Mike Hargrove? "Facts make it that much harder for me to prove my case.... hehe, I'm gonna make a great trial lawyer, and a great democrat " Brewerfan rookie, MachMeister5 - Vice President Dick Cheney on NBC's Meet the Press, March 16, 2003 - Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, at a hearing of the Senate's appropriations subcommittee on defense, May 14, 2003

"Is it time to point out that Grieve now has a higher BA, OBP, and SLG than Brady Clark? By 100 or so points. The gap is even larger if you take out Brady's 1 huge game against St. Louis the first week of the season." After Clark's 0-for-5, he's now down to .216, ending 3 different innings, and stranding 7 runners. He's one of those flawed hacks our GMs seem to bring in all the time, for the league minimum, who can't handle playing too often. As part-timers, guys like Clark, Echevarria, put up occasionally decent OPS's (in limited samplings of course), and fans extrapolate those numbers onto a full season, and get excited. But he's a 5th outfielder...TOPS.

Way to go, Brady! Bases juiced, 2 down, Glavine walking everyone in sight, and he.......................pops up to CF on the second pitch. Samplesize me if you like, but so far this year, Clark is hitting .091 with Runners in Scoting Position, stranding runners at a Grissom-esque pace.