JimH5

I don't have any data to back this up but my guess is about 10% of these types of FA deals favor the team and the other 90% favor the players. Free agent deals rarely end up being worth it when you go to 5 years. Looking at the 2014 offseason here are all the contracts signed for at least 3 years & decent money, with how they turned out (so far in Max & Lester's cases)... Max Scherzer | 7/210 | 32.5 fWAR, 34.7 rWAR | TEAM Jon Lester | 6/155 | 16.8 fWAR, 17.9 rWAR | FAIR Pablo Sandoval | 5/95 | -1.1 fWAR, -0.1 bWAR | PLAYER Hanley Ramirez | 4/88 | 1.3 fWAR, 1.4 rWAR | PLAYER Russell Martin | 5/82 | 12.5 fWAR, 8.4 bWAR | FAIR James Shields | 4/75 | 0.8 fWAR, 2.7 rWAR | PLAYER Victor Martinez 4/68 | -3.7 fWAR, -1.8 bWAR | PLAYER Yasmany Tomas | 6/68 | -0.6 fWAR, -2.5 bWAR | PLAYER Nelson Cruz | 4/57 | 15.7 fWAR, 17.0 bWAR | TEAM Ervin Santana | 4/55 | 7.2 fWAR, 10.8 rWAR | FAIR Chase Headley | 4/52 | 5.9 fWAR, 4.9 bWAR | PLAYER Brandon McCarthy | 4/48 | 2.7 fWAR, 1.9 rWAR | PLAYER David Robertson | 4/46 | 6.0 fWAR, 5.8 rWAR | FAIR Nick Markakis | 4/44 | 5.8 fWAR, 6.6 bWAR | FAIR Melky Cabrera | 3/42 | 2.2 fWAR, 3.7 bWAR | PLAYER Francisco Liriano | 3/39 | 4.6 fWAR, 2.7 rWAR | PLAYER Andrew Miller | 4/36 | 7.2 fWAR, 8.8 rWAR | TEAM Billy Butler | 3/30 | -1.1 fWAR, -0.6 bWAR | PLAYER By my count that's 18 deals with the team "winning" three, five more that were fair then the last ten being overpays of varying degrees. In total it looks like $1,290,000 (yes, that is one billion two hundred ninety million dollars) were spent on those 18 players, who have produced in the neighborhood of 105-132 WAR, with three years total left to go between Max & Lester. Assuming another 10 WAR for those last three Max & Lester seasons & you're looking at somewhere between 9.1 & 11.2 million per win. You could almost say when it comes to free agency, it often pays to not spend. That's good research. My only quibbles with the no free agent strategy is that teams have to fill out their rosters, and sometimes the only players available are those on the free agent market. And by signing free agents (instead of trades), nothing is lost from the organization except for money. And all WAR isn't valued equally. Getting enough wins to reach the postseason is more valuable that other wins.

I don't have any data to back this up but my guess is about 10% of these types of FA deals favor the team and the other 90% favor the players. Free agent deals rarely end up being worth it when you go to 5 years. That's possible. Though I don't know that teams all use the same formula to determine if a contract was good or not. The Nats were adamant that they needed to go big on the Jayson Werth deal to get other players to know they were serious about winning. Whether that's hogwash or not, it's not really something that fits into a Dollars per WAR calculation. One thing that's pretty clear is that younger players under team control are often producing at levels way above their pay.

I think half the deals should turn out to be regrettable by the teams, and half the deals should be regrettable by the players. Then it would be a fair market. If every deal was great for every team, then the players didn't get enough.

Good for them and good for him. I like that he stays in the NL West and gets to compete with the Dodgers.

I think I've had enough of Rob Manfred. I'm with him on pace of action, but everything else, he seems to be a dud. Noncompetitive teams, cheating scandals, the HR spike, a looming work stoppage, and now this MiLB stuff... He hasn't had many successes in his term as commissioner.

Not with the farm as it currently looks, no. But Trent Grisham was seen as a failed draft pick by some at this time last year. So new guys could emerge between now and July. And that's also true of guys on the major league roster. If Arcia hits, then they have a surplus of middle infielders. If they sign Avisail, then maybe the OF is crowded. I think they could package guys in July to land a big pitcher. The thing is, when top end pitchers are making $1M per start, it might not make sense to buy 33 of those starts, but it could make sense to buy 12 or 15 of them. And the postseason starts are unpaid labor, so they could maximize their opportunity while minimizing their financial exposure.

We were very fortunate last season that a discarded SP by the Pirates, pitched like an Ace for us down the stretch for us to get the wildcard. It would be wiser to get the Ace at the start of the season as he could help us win the divison. I agree. But they said they lost money last season. And whether that is true or some kind of accounting gimmick, it seems to be affecting how they're building this roster. I think they can't/won't sign a top starter, and it doesn't make sense to have a great pitcher on a poor team, so I think they're going to wait until the trade deadline to see if they're competitive, and who is available in trade. That way, they can have a top end starter for the most important games of the year, and only be stuck with paying the high salary for August & September. Just my guess.

It's a very long season. I think they're operating on the Sabathia model. They'll get an ace when they have proven to be a contender and only for the part of the season when his salary is most meaningful.

Brett Anderson is fine. I do wonder why the A's didn't bring him back for that money, but they have a lot of young pitchers for their rotation. The Brewers don't, so until they do, it will be more of these cheap, one-year flier types. Twelve guys made starts for the Brewers last year, so it's possible to patch together a staff with guys like Brett Anderson.

At least he's not on the Cubs or Cardinals. The Brewers aren't alone in being unable/unwilling to sign him. Most teams are out of the market for the top free agents. Anthony Rendon isn't coming here, either. My worry with all of these high priced deals is that they might also be priced out on Bumgarner, Ryu and Keuchel, too. Then they're left cobbling together Gio and Tanner Roark and other Suppans and Garzas.

Steele Walker is a cool name. Though it also sounds like something that an elderly person would use to get around following hip surgery.

I can't imagine there is any player to whom the Brewers would offer 7/245. Whether they could or not is immaterial. Ryan Braun may be the last star player to spend his whole career with the Brewers.

Actually it could have...because when I gave that example, it was merely an example based on AAV and not years or anything else. I was assuming it would take about $30 million per year..Stras's contract is about $35 million per year..So I was in the ballpark..and actually when you consider his contract is really 7/165 with 80 million deferred..That's actually only 23.5 million per year. Doable for the Brewers. Deferred money isn't optional. They still have to pay it. In Strasburg's case, it's paid with interest over the 3 years after the 7 year playing contract. 5/120 is nowhere close to 7/245.

Stras is getting paid the equivalent of a fortune 500 CEO salary. Would you say his skill set is more or less unique than a CEO's? Every player should get every dollar he can get. Otherwise it just goes back to the owners.

If Tim Raines is in the HOF for what he did from 1981-1987, then Fernando Valenzuela should be in the HOF for what he did from 1981-1987. Not his fault that Lasorda ran him into the ground throwing so many pitches at such a young age. If the test is if you can't tell the history of baseball without mentioning that player, you sure as heck cannot tell the history of baseball in the 1980's without mentioning Valenzuela. Not just performance, but what he did from a cultural standpoint in LA in reviving the Mexican community's interest in baseball is rivaled by very few pro athletes. I think all players are in for the totality of their careers, not just their peak years. Raines was a great leadoff hitter with more than 800 SB at a high success rate and over 1500 runs scored. He also benefitted from a very persuasive campaign by Jonah Keri to get elected. Fernando was tremendous as a pitcher and cultural icon. It's a shame that he was so abused as a pitcher.

Simmons was so good. Very glad that he was elected while he was alive. Miller's posthumous election is troubling, as he said he didn't want to be elected after he was dead. It really is an injustice to him as the HOF gets to have him there without giving him the opportunity to speak. His family also indicated that they wouldn't participate in his induction. We'll see if they change their minds.

He's a fine signing, especially if they decide to include a minor league OF in a package.

I can't invest emotional energy in the Brewers getting or not getting Jordan Lyles. True, they seemed to unlock something in him and get good work from him, but I can't imagine that he would be the difference maker in making it deep into the postseason.

The Pilots ownership group borrowed money until they couldn't, and then were forced into bankruptcy.

I'm guessing it would be borrowed money from a lender. The Brewers carried (and maybe still carry) debt for many years. There were times when payroll was low that they announced some of the savings was going toward debt service. Businesses (even huge, rich businesses) carry debt all the time if the terms are to their liking.

I'm guessing the Brewers could spend the money if they chose to spend the money. The money is tied up in the value of the franchise, but the track record of MLB teams is that they have always gone up in value. There is very little risk in losing money invested in MLB. Interest rates remain low, so borrowing would be cheap. Would it be a wise investment? I don't know. None of us can say yes or no with any certainty, nor are we privy to the books or the motivation of the team's owners. The Brewers consistently place near the top of reports that measure the engagement of the local fan base. Local ratings, attendance for the market size, etc. Ownership might think they are getting all they can from a market of this size, and to spend more on payroll would be bottom line losses. Or they could be in this game the way that Jane Pettit and Herb Kohl were invested in the community, with an eye toward benevolence and outreach. But the money is there for them to do with what they please. And actually, we don't even know that the ownership group hasn't already borrowed on the franchise value for Brewers-related stuff or anything else. MLB most likely has rules on debt-to-franchise value ratios. So I'm going to change my answer to that emoji shrug guy.

Good one for Stearns on this acquisition. The bottom of the order looks a lot better than it did with Pina, Arcia and the pitcher. I don't know who they're sending back, but the Brewers know their minor leaguers better than I do, so I won't quibble with their decision.

Narvaez is the anti-Pina, which makes for a good platoon partner. Lefty bat with good production. 119 and 120 OPS+ the past two seasons. Has a reputation as a bad pitch framer. Just 18 pct CS rate last year.

Ken Rosenthal says the Mariners are sending Narvaez to the Brewers for minor league right-hander Adam Hill and a Competitive Balance draft pick (currently slotted as #71). There's the other half of the catching duo.

Soooo many homers allowed. Not sure that Miller/AmFam would have helped him. The Brewers need pitching for sure, but I'm fine that they weren't the winners of this derby.