JimH5
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Everything posted by JimH5
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All the religious puns praising Jesus Aguilar. Honestly, enough already with those.
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Watching Suter and Max Scherzer vs. almost everyone else, I think a lot of time is wasted by pitchers just not delivering the ball. The pace of Suter and Scherzer is noticeably faster, while the pace of Pedro Strop is terribly slow. A pitch clock could reduce wasted time by the pitchers. Not sure if that's enough, though.
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2018 Baseball: The Sport That Won't Interrupt Your Knitting It was an interesting game that took an hour too long. Aguilar's homers were fantastic. Hader's appearance was awesome. Flaherty's performance was remarkable. But my baseball fandom was born in the 1970s, when it was not uncommon for a game to last between 2 hours and 2:30. Turn on any game now at 9:00 p.m. and you're surprised if they're in the 7th inning. There were 302 pitches last night. Fifteen of them resulted in field-of-play outs. Six resulted in hits. And 281 of them were fouls, swinging strikes, called strikes, or balls. Not every game is going to be full of action, but last night's game was awful. I cannot imagine being 12 years old and actually wanting to watch this sport.
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The knitting woman says it all. She knew there would be so much dead time at the sleepy old ballpark that she could crank out a blanket or two and not miss any action. For reference, none of the games in the 1982 World Series or the ALCS took 3 hours and 19 minutes. The Hank Aaron 715 game was played in 2:27. The Bob Gibson 17K World Series game took 2:29. The Roger Clemens 20K game vs the Mariners took 2:39. All those games had drama and excitement and anticipation without the knitting. -
2-1 games are by exciting by their nature. They just don't have to take 3 hours and 19 minutes. In 1975, the Brewers played 2-1 games on the following dates with the following times of games: May 23/2:08 August 4/2:29 August 16/2:32 August 26/2:34 Those games were every bit as compelling and tight as tonight's game, played in 50 or so fewer minutes. Aguilar's moments tonight were fantastic. I just didn't find watching 7 walks and 30 strikeouts to be compelling. Once the no-hitter was done (and he wasn't going to complete the game anyway), then it was just both offenses being dominated.
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A fine win, indeed. But to be the downer here...the game had 3 runs and 6 hits total and it took 3 hours 19 minutes. What non-baseball fan is going to sit through all of that to get to the drama at the end? I'm numbed by the boredom of baseball in 2018.
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Arcia has 9 GIDP this year, 8 BB and 7 XBH. His last walk was June 1st, his last XBH (a double) was May 18th. I would be interested in knowing what the coaches are working on with him today. Is it the strike zone? Swing plane? Working the count? Is he taking it in? Stubborn? Do they think he's someone who benefits from being left alone? Is there a coach or teammate who is able to reach him? Is there friction on the team? I don't expect we'll ever really know that stuff, at least until he improves, or is off the team. His defense is still excellent, which says something about his ability to keep his struggles in perspective. But his ABs are really tough to watch.
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Great research, thanks! A 126+ wRC+ at AA from a 20 year old SS is a pretty exciting. So I think the praise was justified. But he didn't make any real improvement in Colorado Springs, and with this 250 game stretch to start his MLB career, that praiseworthy season looks more like a mirage.
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Nobody knows what to do long term because Arcia hasn't shown any growth or development to merit play in the short term. Will he be good in 2021? Maybe. But we shouldn't have to sit through 3 years of dreck to find out. Maybe he'll be Andrelton Simmons or JJ Hardy by then. Maybe he'll be Rey Ordonez. It is interesting that two of the worst hitters in MLB have been the most recent top prospects of this system. It might be that the Brewers are bad at developing minor league hitters.
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The Twitterverse is displeased with Arcia. And I agree with them.
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Whenever I think I can predict the future with a player, I am reminded that I can't. Arcia looks like a bust to me, though there have been players who have had lengthy careers with similarly dismal stat lines. For now, Arcia is an incomplete player. Whatever he adds defensively (a lot), he is a negative bat, forcing the team to carry a backup infielder with a plus bat. Those guys aren't easy to find. He's on the roster now because he is cheap and because they don't have anyone better & healthy. If they are serious about a postseason run, I have to imagine they'll be looking for a 2018 improvement. Manny Machado will probably be too expensive, but maybe Jurickson Profar or Jordy Mercer. Brandon Crawford would be perfect, but his contract runs through 2021, which would require giving up on Arcia. In any case, 7 XBH and 8 BB through 172 PA forces the discussion.
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Sogard and Houser Up, Arcia and Lopez to AAA
JimH5 replied to JDBrewCrew's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
All runs are not created/saved equally. There are no ways to win if they don't score. Arcia's defense is tremendous, but the Brewers are 8-17 when they score less than 4 runs. He has to contribute more with the bat to deserve regular playing time. -
I don't see any downside to that. Saladino is playing great, while Arcia has been among the least valuable players in baseball this year. If the Brewers are going to make a serious run this year, I don't think Saladino is the answer, but Arcia doesn't deserve to play ahead of him right now. And a trip to the minors could spark a change for the better.
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Are you predicting a similar run for him the remainder of this year? He seems totally lost and stuck in a see ball, hit ball approach.
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I don't know if the instruction is the same as it was under Melvin. I hope it's different than it was 10-15 years ago. I would like the system to produce like it did in those days. Instead, it's been celebrated as being a top tier farm system without much offensive production. They made a big deal out of the Arcia callup. And both he and Brinson are hitting below replacement level.
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This is what people need to keep in mind - it's been one month. Players have bad months - it happens. But it's only one out of six months, not even 20% of the season. There's a reason most trades don't happen until July - the first month of the season is a small sample. I'm not for trading Arcia, but now, 40 games into the season, he's at 217/262/296. And the other great Brewers gem, Lewis Brinson, is at 177/230/308. And Corey Ray has been bad and Trent Grisham has been bad. And Keston is trending down and Tristen Lutz's stat line is uninspiring. And Jake Gatewood and on and on... This highly considered farm system hasn't produced star major league offensive talent, while other guys from Arcia's prospect list--Aaron Judge, Ozzie Albies, Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi--have graduated to greatness. I get it that prospect lists are suspect, and there's a lot of guesswork in projecting players. But what if year after year, a highly considered farm system under produces? Then isn't it less about the player and more about minor league instruction? This franchise has sold us on patience and development and building from within. But if they can't produce star hitters, then we're doomed to rooting for scrapheap guys.
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From Fangraphs: Of the 106 players in the NL with 100+ plate appearances, Arcia ranks 105th in wRC+. If you want to add in his defensive value and look at overall WAR, he rises to 97th. So whatever he shows with the glove, it doesn't make up for his anemic bat. He's been the least valuable SS in the league. The fact that the Brewers really don't have anyone else to play the position on a regular basis doesn't mean Arcia has been valuable. He's fortunate that the team has no other options. The statement was that he is costing the team wins and he isn't. Could he be better right now? Of course. No one is debating that. This is what you deal with sometimes with bringing up young talent. People always gripe that we don't go with a youth movement but when we do, and they don't come out and swing it like the Babe, then it said that they suck and are worthless and never will be good. It truly is amazing. Patience is something the Brewers must and should have. And by Fangraphs, he's playing at -0.1 WAR. Isn't that indicative that he's costing them wins? Or at least 0.1 win? Playing young players is fine, but it's also ok to point out when they're playing poorly. I don't know if he's going to be worthless in the future. But the stats are what they are. He's walking less, hitting more ground balls and fewer line drives. There are no underlying stats that show he's growing in any real way on offense.
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From Fangraphs: Of the 106 players in the NL with 100+ plate appearances, Arcia ranks 105th in wRC+. If you want to add in his defensive value and look at overall WAR, he rises to 97th. So whatever he shows with the glove, it doesn't make up for his anemic bat. He's been the least valuable SS in the league. The fact that the Brewers really don't have anyone else to play the position on a regular basis doesn't mean Arcia has been valuable. He's fortunate that the team has no other options.
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His solid numbers weren't anything special. .324 OBP .407 SLG. 25th in (FG) WAR, 21st in wRC+. among SS with 300×+ Plate Appearances. He has youth and a cheap contract on his side, and maybe he'll get better. But right now, he pounds it into the dirt way too much. He's got a .248 OBP and has scored 6 runs all year. In a thread about offensive woes, Arcia is a deserving target of criticism.
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He's in a battle with Escobar and Freddy Galvis for least valuable regular SS in baseball. He's showing an unwillingness or inability to draw a walk. And he's leading all shortstops in hitting the ball on the ground. His wRC+ is 46, which is Yunieskyesque. Once the strikeout bullpen takes over a game, his defensive value becomes unnecessary, so it's easy to double switch him out of games. He was the top prospect in the system, and now, 200+ games into his career, he looks more like a bust than a star. He's still young enough to turn it around, but I wish he would, because this year, he's been an easy out.
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It's not just the Brewers, the watchability of MLB has been declining for ~5 years now. Strikeouts at an all-time high, batting average near top-10 lowest in history. More strikeouts than hits for the first time ever. Time of game still ridiculously long. Virtually all pitchers currently using illegal substances. The attendance decline has been accelerating so I assume there will be more action taken by the league in the offseason. What I especially noticed at Sunday's game was how quiet the crowd was. There were 38,000 people there, and the events on the field seemed to have little impact on the noise level. I guess getting dominated by Chad Kuhl will do that to a crowd. And having to watch Arcia, Bandy, Sogard and the pitcher hit gives little hope for anything positive. We left in the 6th after the Pirates went up 7-0, and I hadn't heard many boos up until that point. Not sure if they came out later. But I did see a late in the game photo, and the stadium had cleared out by more than half. There was no reason to stay, and this team is giving us little reason to go at all.
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Lots of people watch soccer, so... Thats their problem.
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Is that last comment specific to the Brewers, or to the product MLB is putting on the field these days? http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/18486/olney-have-big-swings-big-flies-and-big-whiffs-broken-baseball Perhaps both, but I was specifically (and emotionally) talking about the Brewers with my research and criticism. If someone told you that you were obligated to spend 3 hours watching a game, that your team would score 2 runs without the aid of a homer, and they would fail to score at all in more than 75 percent of the innings, would you do it? And, would you do it at the stadium, with all the expense and (perhaps) inconvenience of getting there and back? I'm a 20-game seat holder, and I'm leaning heavily toward giving them up after this year. This is supposed to be a contending team, and even with their winning record, it is a dreadful watch.
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Through the first 35 games, the Brewers have scored in 74 out of 315 offensive innings. More than 75 percent of their innings end with a 0. That seems bad, and more than that, it's boring. To add to the boredom, they have scored just 74 of their 132 runs without the aid of a homer this year. Just over 2 a game. And those games are still 3 hours long. Why are we watching this snoozefest as entertainment?
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[sarcasm]clearly you need to stop going to games.[/sarcasm] I'm getting closer and closer... I think this is going to be my last year with a 20 pack, and might just do day of game after this year. The little stuff that didn't bother me in the past is starting to add up, and when they play like crap, I can't get out of there fast enough...
