It's about UW's defense versus ND's offense, particularly ND's OL. ND gave up four sacks to Purdue, six (!) sacks to Toledo, and four sacks to FSU (who are 0-3 and lost to Jacksonville State). It's also about UW's run game vs ND's run defense. ND gave up 264 yards rushing to said 0-3 FSU and gave up a 100-yard rushing game to Toledo's RB. (Purdue has something like the 2nd lowest running % of any team in FBS over the last several years so they don't count). That's why the spread is what it is. Based on this season's performance, UW is expected to control the line of scrimmage. This. Just a bad matchup for Notre Dame on paper.