JohnBriggs12

Why do you and everyone else assume Weeks will remain on the roster next year? Suppan was owed more dollars and was waived in early May. Weeks' contract is a sunken cost. Besides he wasn't very good against lefties either last year. Bianchi is capable of doing what Weeks can anyway with better defense. Roenicke likes bench player with versatility. Weeks has no versatility, ergo, no role. The best point he made in the article was despite struggling vs. lefties in limited AB's last year, he still put up good overall numbers and was likely to improve toward the mean splits. He did address his most recent minors years saying they were close to the mean. This is such a right hand dominant team that they can afford to bat a guy like Gennett in the 8 hole against lefties and let him work on getting better, especially if playing everyday actually increases his production against RHP. As I said before, he can always give Bianchi the occasional start too as he will need to be kept fresh.

I think the Brewers prefer a LH bat or they may have bid on Morse too. Is Pill really any better than Halton? Pill has good minor league numbers (particularly last year at age 28) but I think if you put Halton in Fresno when he's 28, he'd put up big numbers too.

As someone who had the benefit of watching the final series of the year vs. the Mets from the Mets telecast perspective, I had the opportunity to listen to a long discussion that entire series between Ron Darling and Keith Hernandez about Davis specifically. Hernandez, a great hitter in his own right, was rather critical. I don't remember the specifics, but it's the same you hear about a lot of struggling hitters. He gets behind in counts taking cookies, and then swings at pitcher's pitches. They also talked about him being the kind of guy who gets very down on himself, and that to succeed especially playing in NY, guys need to let go of things quickly.

.280/.350/.481 playing in Reno isn't that impressive. Career minor leaguer Brad Snyder hit .311/.370/.494 there last year. In 2011, Cody Ransom hit .317/.405/629 in Reno. The ball flies in Reno and pitchers have a hard time there. I once saw a game there in 1992 between Brewer Cal League affiliate Stockton and Reno which was an A's affiliate. Final score was something like 27-18. Never saw anything like that before or since, Stockton won. Matheny was only player on that team to have more than a cup of big league coffee. Somebody named Rob Lukachyk, who later had 2 ABs for Montreal, and Mike Harris, who later was on 95 Brewer "replacement team" that never got out of spring training, looked like Ruth and Gehrig in that game. That's not to say Davidson's not a prospect, but he's also not likely an All Star anytime soon.

Mike Carp should be on the list. He's expendable in Boston. I voted for Moreland though who I think will be available once Texas signs another bat.

I'd focus on Moreland, Smoak and Carp in trade discussions.

They hope to contend for the playoffs. Where have you seen anything from them to the contrary? Ramirez is good for 125 starts at 3B tops. Who would you rather have taking the other 35-40? Francisco who is terrible defensively wherever you put him and isn't the hitter Chavez is, or Taylor Green who hasn't played in over a year and at 27 is a stretch to be still called a "young guy"? Then there is this opening at 1B. True Chavez' experience there is limited, but this team tried numerous guys there last year who hadn't ever played there and who offensively weren't the hitter Chavez is. Chavez isn't long term but he could fill a platoon spot temporarily and buy a little time for Morris or even Rogers at AAA. If they don't contend, Chavez will make a nice piece for a team that does. Same as Jim Edmonds did several years ago. Ultimately, Edmonds brought them Chris Dickerson, who in turn brought them Sergio Mitre, who in turn was sold for cash to Yankees.

This, IMHO, is a seriously great post. I think you've perfectly traced a sensible thought process. Of course, JohnBriggs will probably come back with another snide and condescending dismissal, but don't worry about that; you're operating in a different zone. I don't think the Gomez question is at all easy, mainly because -- as you've illustrated -- it involves some difficult assumptions at the margin. But I think you've provided the right template for thinking about it. Since you were anticipating it, here it is though my comments aren't snide, they are though out as well as yours. Won't Gomez be worth nearly as much under those assumptions 2 years from now? Also can you give me the odds Doug Melvin who's now 61 will be around in 2016, much less 2020? What incentive does he have to be looking that far ahead? Sometime in the 2016-2020 time frame, Lucroy will be too expensive to keep too. So basically, to go from something close to a .500 team now that could if a lot of things break right contend to a bona fide contender is going to take a lot more than what you are suggesting, because as they are adding prospects, they are going to be subtracting proven talent. I suppose you could trade both Lucroy and Gomez, but there are still 42,000 seats that need to have customers in them for the franchise to remain viable. As an aside, since you decided to make this personal, wouldn't this forum be boring if I weren't here to provide the occasional opposing viewpoint? It would be an echo chamber where all of you would convince each other how insightful you all are. I'm the same age as Doug Melvin, so while I don't agree with a lot of what he does or doesn't do, I do understand where he's coming from and I do understand business and the bottom line. The Brewers aren't the Cubs who have enough fans who relish visiting a museum every year to keep the team afloat while management takes 8-10 years to try building from within. The Brewers have to maintain interest in the current team. Those projecting 77 wins this year thankfully aren't in charge of the franchise. Management sees potential for a lot more than that and they should be striving with that assumption in mind, not throwing in the towel for the next 3 to 5 seasons.

Really??? He played for $3 million last year. Are you telling me Brewers can't afford $3 million with all the new national TV money??

Ok, he's 36, but he would seem to be a nice fit and he seems to have a little life left. A left handed bat that can play 3B spelling Ramirez and has also played a few games at 1B, and logically should be able to handle either position better than Francisco. Besides, he's put up .800+ OPS the last couple years albeit in part time role. When he's not playing he's that veteran lefty bat off the bench that Melvin loves.

You are believing the smoke screen. Just as Melvin put up a smoke screen saying they weren't dealing Aoki, it was in their plans all along. Davis and Gennett won jobs in 2013 and that's the direction they are going. They have to say or imply some sort of role for him because he's still on the roster. The only reason Weeks is still on the roster is because they are hoping a decent spring and they'll be able to deal him and save a few million dollars. The Weeks ship sailed. He has little to no value as a one position part time player.

At this point, I'd just go to Arizona and let the guys they do have battle it out. Then see who might be available from cuts or in trade. Melvin waited too long on Hart, and assumed way too much. The most logiical "free" options are gone. He never moved on Morneau or gave a thought to Morse. Both guys signed modest deals. Give Morris and Halton long looks this spring. If between them in a platoon they could get .260/.325/.440, with 25 HR and 80 RBI, that's as good as the guys currently available. Maybe throw Green into the mix as well, and lets not forget Lucroy when he's not catching.

He'll most assuredly start the season in AAA. I'm pretty certain he'd be out of minor league options and he needs the ABs after two years of inactivity.

I don't think he'll stick but the Brewers will offer Pittsburgh something of value to keep him.

I agree with your first paragraph, but I heard recently that every major league team is getting $26 million extra this year from the TV deal. They would have only "risked" $6 million of that on a player who was the longest tenured Brewer. It wasn't the kind of PR move that this fan base which is enduring the Braun fiasco really needed. When healthy, and apparently Seattle thinks he is, Hart's normal production is worth a lot closer to the max of $13 million being offered by Seattle than the relative paltry maxed out $6.5 million offered by the Brewers.

Given how poorly Gennett has hit vs lefties through his minor league career, it would be pretty hard for Weeks to do worse. Gennett was never platooned in the minor leagues and hit .330 vs. lefties in 2010, and .282 vs. lefties in 2011. The last couple seasons, he hit .241 and .235 against them, but that's not as bad as you suggest. Weeks slumped against all pitching the last couple seasons. Last year he hit just .226 off of lefthanders. Bianchi hit .258.

It's a lot easier to trade during spring training than it is once the season starts. Either they find a trade partner in spring or they'll just release him and eat the contract. I don't buy the platoon idea. I think they are pretty committed to Gennett. They'll give starts to keep Bianchi fresh against lefties.

Two things worked against him. Melvin has a theme every offseason based on what contributed most to the prior year's failure. In 2013 is was injuries so this year's theme? Don't risk any cash on players coming off injuries. Morse had some injury issues though like Hart is supposed to be fully healthy now. But if he wasn't willing to risk more than $4 million to bring back the player with the longest tenure on the club, he wasn't going to be interested in $6 million for Morse. The other issue for Morse is he's right handed, and if Hart wasn't coming back, they wanted to fill that spot with a lefty bat. We've seen this over and over again with Melvin. He always addresses the problem that occurred LAST season. The problem with that strategy is that no two seasons are alike so you need to take a broader look and protect yourself against any number of issues that can derail a season. Not signing either Hart or Morse could turn out to be a huge mistake. Either or both could have huge years so really, he is taking a risk of missing out on maximizing the production at a position. But if that happens he'll be subject to a lot less criticism than if he signed one and the guy got hurt.

I could live with Davis, if the Brewers don't have to give up any of the following: Thornburg, Nelson, Peralta, or Will Smith. Those guys should be off limits. If it is Davis, I'd be sure to hold on to Halton to face lefties. They can also use Lucroy there too. Davis' splits vs. lefties are awful.

A strikeout to walk ratio of 10.5 to 1 is impressive at any level.

A strikeout to walk ratio of 10.5 to 1 is impressive at any level.

Haudricourt is said to have tweeted that teams interested in Weeks will likely wait to see him in spring training. If he shows up healthy and in shape (not givens by any means), Brewers stand a better chance of moving him.

After seeing the Brewers modest offer, I have to admit you're right. The stuff about Hart being a priority was all fluff. Melvin had to know in this market somebody would blow it out.

In this day and age any veteran regular getting a deal with an average salary under $10 million cannot be considered "ridiculous". Ike Davis has upside, but also carries with him extreme downside. Like him or not, Loney's done well enough to maintain an everyday 1B job for 7 seasons. He's not an All Star, but the risk of him being a bust on the level of Davis' 2013 is nearly non-existent. Think of his contract in terms of if the Brewers were in need of an innings eating consistent yet not dominating starting pitcher to round out their staff. A guy getting $8-9 million per year to fill that role would be a bargain. The Brewers lack a quality 1B in a lineup that is otherwise set and where they are getting a huge bang for their buck at several positions. Investing in a guy who's reliable to fill that one open spot is fine. They project to get better than average production at a number of other spots: Catcher, CF, RF, 3B, SS. As long as they have average or close to elsewhere, then it's a good offensive team.

It's being reported Hart got a deal similar to Napoli's last year: $5 million base with incentives going up to around $13 million. That's a far cry from what the Brewer offer supposedly topped out at. I'm sure the base was close, but the incentives weren't in the ballpark.