kramnoj

This is a common comment. If that is the case, would the 3B then be overrated because they are getting credit for plays that Hardy would be making if he were positioned differently? It certainly is true that the Brewers shift more than other teams, but presumably the Brewers are doing so to gain an advantage. If the Brewers are shifting Hardy out of position and he is making fewer plays, that would be good information to have and the Brewers should stop shifting him.

2008 mid-season report is out: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/national_league_leaders_at_the_all_star_break_offense_plus_defense/ The total is runs against average for the position Brewers: Prince -3.6 Weeks -3.6 Hall -9.4 Hardy 4.5 Kendall 9.4 Braun 6.9 Cameron 5.4 Hart 4.4

He's on a one year deal for $5 million.

You have to pay for ESPN Insider because ESPN is a business. They want to make as much money as they can. Obviously enough people are paying for it that they don't need to give it away for free. SI is still promoting their magazine, which is why they exist. I don't think that Gammons gets all that money. The writers don't have a choice about if they are Insider or not. Neyer didn't want to go behind that wall, but that is what the suits decided.

The irony here Joe is that if some other team tried to throw in Fred Jelson, a 25 year-old with identical numbers, in a trade to us, the same folks would say he's a 4A player. But, because he is Crew property, he's "special". What position does Fred Jelson play? CF? I would take that player as a throw in. We need someone to play CF next year. If he was a throw in and he could play CF for a year or two until the youngsters are ready, I would take that. Are you are saying that we would take Fred Jelson if he played 1B? That just doesn't make any sense. We don't need someone there. His ceiling appears to be a 1B/LF reserve. Gwynn has much more of a chance to be a major league contributor, but some are ready to give him away and argue Nelson has value. I do not get it at all...he does have a smidgen of value...but not a whole lot. His ceiling might be that. Or it might not. We won't know for sure until someone gives him a chance. As far as some giving away Gwynn and saying Nelson has value, why don't you avoid the "some say" argument and actually address what people are saying. We can make another thread about Gwynn if you want, but this thread is "what do we see for Brad Nelson". The mere mention of him in the same sentence as "replace Prince" is offensive to me. I can name at least 20 guys not starting in the bigs that are not top prospects I'd rather have as a stopgap 1B. OK, why don't you do that, and then tell us how much those players would cost to acquire. If Prince were to be traded, it would presumably only be for a young starter, which looks to be a weakness next year. A weakness that we don't appear to be able to replace in the farm system and that we either may not be able to replace in the FA market, or will pay dearly for. Nelson could be a stopgap for one year if the team thought it was the best way to build a roster next year while maintaing the development of guys like Gamel. He wouldn't be good. He would probably be below average. But he probably wouldn't be an embarrasment compared to others playing 1B. Look at 1B this year. An 800 OPS is average, but there are a dozen guys below that starting at 1B right now. This is like your thought that every single AAA team has players hitting better than Nelson. It seems like you are assuming that every team has a guy at 1B with an 800 OPS, but that isn't true. He's had 1100 AAA AB's, yet many act like the 300 from '08 are all he's had, because it favors their point. He's older than many of the Crew's current players. He simply does not have the numbers to match the hype. Not ignoring, no. But projections weigh recent performance the most, and a 25 year old in a projection is going to have an improvement. That is what the focus is on. As far as hype, what hype are you talking about? That he may be a stop gap starter at 1B for a small window? If you think that I use the word "value" as hype, than you are misunderstading what I am saying. A player that is below average playing at the minimum has value, as long as he's not truly bad. Teams often spend millions to be below average at a position. If you can get the same production at minimum, with no guaranteed long term contract, that is valuable.

JoeHova: " meant that Nelson is a failed prospect. He went from being the Brewers #1 prospect to being their #45 prospect (P50) and signed with the team as a minor league free agent for 2008. " "And what does it matter that Nelson was the Brewers minor league player of the year 5 years ago?" Joe, nobody is saying that Nelson will be a very good MLB player, in the literal sense of those words. Some of us are suggesting he may have some value. Your arguments aren't crimes, what a weird thing to say. But if some of us feel that your statements are too dismissive of Nelson's talents, we can choose to dispute them.

Blanton has two arby seasons after this one.

I haven't really paid attention to the Philiies. Didn't know they were doing so well except for the small problem of 40% of their rotation stinking. What's the story with Myers, does he want to go back to being a reliever and Eaton stays in the rotation? Cardenas is certainly a high price to pay, but the Phils are trying to hold onto 1st. Interesting trade, and great move by Beane to get such a prize.

I did read that. Since he has made the neccessary revision, I haven't read any other comments about any other issues.

They certainly do need a 1B, as will 29 other teams. Well, this just isn't true. I'm not going to take the time to go through all 30 teams, because I don't get the sense that you are interested in an actual discussion. The Brewers for example don't need a 1B next year. They have Fielder. The Orioles, meanwhile have a poorly performing Millar on their roster whose contract is about to end and they don't have anybody in their system who looks like they can step in and fill that void. They actually need, in the most absolute sense of the word, a 1B, because they don't have anybody there. Why would it be Nelson rather than any other guy? I think I've said why a couple of times, but I'll state it clearly here. Nelson is improving at an age where players often improve, which means that his improvement shouldn't be seen as a fluke, but progress. His age next year should be seen as a positive, not a negative. He doesn't have much value to his current team, and may be available this season in a trade, or in the offseason in the Rule V draft. I haven't taken the time to go through all 30 teams to examine their 40 man roster and who will be available for the Orioles to look at. But I imagine that Nelson is a player who would be an improvement for the Orioles over anybody they have, and he would be the least expensive player they could target to fill their need. Normally a team might look at major league FA, but there are two players they may not get, and after that not a lot. Nelson could probably give better or equal performance than a lot of the ML FA this offseason, and he could do it cheaper. Why would they give up Roberts or Sherrill for Nelson when they could grab him in a couple months (as you yourself say) for $50,000? That's what I don't understand. Well, I'm not suggesting they give up either player for Nelson. I figure Nelson would be a player that would improve their system, and he could be included as part of a larger trade, whether that includes Weeks, or some other higher prospects they Orioles may want and the Brewers would trade for Roberts or Sherrill. As to why they should trade for him rather than get him in the Rule V draft, the answer is fairly obvious. If they trade for him, they can put him on the AAA team for depth. Because you are right, he's not the kind of player that a team looks at to be their shiny acquisition to start at 1B. But he would improve their system, and he would provide depth in case their bad FA signing doesn't turn out well. So why would a guy with a similar but worse profile be a great bet to succeed instead? This is just a bad argument. There aren't a lot of players who hit better than what Cruz has done recently. That doesn't mean that teams will stop giving chances to other players. I've also never said that Nelson would be a great bet. I just think he is a guy that could play 1B in the majors without being an embarrasment, and his window is the next couple of years. I would actually argue the opposite. Guys like Salome (ie- nice prospects) are probably more likely to be manning 1st for the Orioles next year than a guy like Micah Hoffpauir or Brad Nelson. Why would you think this? The Orioles don't have a lot of prospect depth to trade away, I'm not sure how they are going to get a prospect to play 1B. If they have nice prospects, they should be hanging on to them to try to improve their team. A guy like Nelson can man the position for a year or two without being awful and can do so cheaply. Teams just don't use failed guys like Nelson at 1st very often. Anybody can play it, which means that the pool of players is everybody. I wouldn't call Nelson a failed player. I would also dispute that anybody can play 1B. Piazza coudln't for example, and he will be a HoF catcher. It is true that most players should, but not everybody can actually do so.

How not? Their stats translate just as well, which is the whole point of MLEs. It shows what a player would have done in MLB. What would it matter if their translated .800 OPS was from AAA, AA or even A+? It's all equal. Because the population of players like Salome are not in the pool of candidates for playing 1B for the Orioles next year. Nelson may be. I am approaching this from an actual market standpoint. The Orioles need a 1B next year. Who will be the candidates they could target, at what cost to them? Nelson may be available in the Rule V draft, and woujld be better than anybody the Orioles have on their roster. Or they could get him in a trade that involves one of their major league players this year, be it Roberts, Sherrill, etc. Players like Salome won't be available in the Rule V draft and would probably not be available in a trade, or would be more expensive in a trade than Nelson. Probably. So what? It doesn't change my point. I confess to not understanding your point. If your point is that lots of players in AAA have OPS but it doesn't mean anything, I'm not sure what the value of that point is. Why? We're not talking about top prospects here, we're talking about performance and what a guy could do now. Because players that have improved at 25 and will be turning 26 could be improving as players. Players that are 28 or older are likely to have reached their peak, and if they haven't won a ML job yet, the chances of them earning one are quite small. It seems like we are approaching different topics here. I am looking at what value Nelson has to a specific team, looking at who is available to fill needs, doing a crude supply demand analysis. You seem to be saying there are lots of players that have better AAA stats, but aren't actually interested in adjusting for context, availability, anything like that. You are correct that Nelson Cruz is destroying AAA, but he has been given a chance to hit major league pitching and has failed. The Orioles need to start a 1B next year, Nelson is better than anybody they have in their system for that role next year, and he is probably going to be available for $50,000 this offseason. I really think the Brewers should target them as a trade partner, because I think that is the best way to get value out of Nelson and if they are going to trade for Roberts, I would much rather lose Nelson than some B prospect.

Our point is that if Nelson's .897 translates so well, what do the 50 guys with better AAA OPS's translate as? I guarantee that Nelson would translate better than many of that 50, because of park effects. I would also eliminate players of a certain age (at least 30, maybe 28 or 29). I'm also not sure what the AB cut off was, because a few of the players hitting better than Nelson have seen ML time this year and have done well. Also, MLE is not a projection, it is a translation. I've tried to avoid saying this. But I would have to think that Szym uses the MLE's in some way as part of Zips, otherwise he wouldn't have taken the time to created based on a million minor league player seasons. Nelson's projection will assuredly be much lower than whatever his MLE is this year because he has 2 horrible years preceding this one that must be taken into account. Nelson will also be entering peak season age and will be given a uptick in performance because of that. I stand by my thesis that Nelson is a fringey MLer. Maybe he'll get a shot, maybe not, but no team (including the Brewers) will make any plan that's contingent on him at this point. He doesn't have to be a long term plan, which is all that I've said. He can be a guy that is a stopgap for a short term. I don't think Nelson has much value on his own. But he might have value to the Orioles if the Brewers trade for Brian Roberts for example. also, if we're using that ZiPS calculator, we should count all the guys in lower levels whose stats translate as well or better than Nelson's Not really. The point I have been making is how attractive is Nelson for teams looking for a stopgap for next year. Salome and players like him don't enter into that conversation.

Anyone with a Baseball America can find that every AAA team has many players hitting just like Brad, or better. I have baseball reference, and I'll dispute this statement. Your claim is exaggerated, at the least, or it's just plain wrong. Nelson's OPS right now is .897. Baltimore has two guys worse than Nelson but above 800. They are 28 and 30. The Reds don't have a starter that is hitting better than Nelson. The Indians don't have a starter OPS within 100 points of Nelson. The Astros have 3 guys hitting worse than Nelson, but within 50 points, they are 28 and 34 The Twins have two guys that have hit better than Nelson, but they both have ML experience this year, and are performing above average. So they have no true AAA players hitting better than him. The Pirates don't have anyone doing as well as Nelson. Toronto only has Lind, who has performed well in the Majors this year. The Nationals don't have anyone within 30 OPS points. So I count 8 teams that don't have full-time starters at the AAA level that are performing as well as Nelson. Many of the other players performing better are a couple years older and/or are in PCL altidude-inflated parks. I also question the validity of the 740 MLE. I am more inclined to trust the work of the creator of ZiPS, whose tool calcualted Nelson's MLE this year to be above 800.

They are going all out in 2008 because they can only afford this financial hit for one season. I don't think that's exactly right. I think they are going all out in 2008 because it is the last year that Sheets will be on this team and the team is extremely close in the playoff race. The Indians falling out of it surprising quickly and CC being made available gave Melvin the ability to acquire a true ace, which doesn't happen every year. BrewersNation, I'm not sure I follow your thinking. You seem to be saying that because the team may lose money this year that they won't spend much money next year. I think it could be the case that past year's profits have allowed this year's team to go overbudget. Now, it's certainly possible that next year's payroll may go down. If that happens, I imagine it would be because the team doesn't see enough value in the FA market and/or gets outbid by richer teams on the few quality FA that will be available.

This winter, the Crew will look to shed some salary room (Mota, Gagne, Sheets, Sabathia, Cameron). The team doesn't have that much money to spend this off-season either I'm not sure how these statements reconcile. I think the Brewers will have plenty to spend this offseason. Gagne, Mota and Turnbow represents $16 million or so that will be available. That might be enough to cover the arbitration increases that will occur. Then there are the questions of Counsell and Cameron and whatever happens to the two aces and their salaries. I figure they sign some FA pitcher like Penny or Wolf for $12 mil/year and then overpay a reliever or two. Regarding the thread topic. If I was the GM of this team in a sim, I agree that the best possible way to build a team for next year is to trade Prince for a good young pitcher and promote Gamel and put him at 1B. I don't know if that's the best option for the future of the team, but it could put together a nice roster for a run next year.

Aurilia is playing 1B for the Giants now, but he was a SS for most of his career and has played 2B and 3B. He was an awful hitter last year but is basically league average this year and has been for most of his career. But he is 36 and bats righty, so I'm not sure he is the ideal target for the Brewers. Durham does have the switch-hitting OBP that the Brewers would like but is awful defensively. Brian Roberts represents the most dramatic improvement that the Brewers could probably make. It would probably come at the cost of Weeks plus one or two more B level prospects. Grudz I think represents the best combination of offense and defense while not requiring much to give up, but he is RH as well.

They ignore it because it isn't relevant to the situation. Attanasio isn't saying "poor me, we are losing money". He is saying that the team will be over-budget this year. That's it. And the team being over-budget isn't going to stop the Brewers from making a couple of more moves if that is what is needed. Once Attanasion starts saying that the team is losing money and can't afford any decent FA, then we can all blast him for that. We're not there yet.

An average 1st baseman is an extremely high bar, it's about a 117 OPS+. Why are you setting the bar at average 1B? Just under half of players that man 1B will be below average. Millar isn't just having a below average season for 1B, his OPS+ is below 100. That is pathetic for a team that wants to be able to contend. Nelson doesn't have to be above average for every team. He just needs to be able to provide value for one team to be able to make a deal. This is true for the Orioles. Here is a list of potential FA 1B this offseason per Cot's: Rich Aurilia SF Ben Broussard TEX Carlos Delgado * NYM Nomar Garciaparra LAD Jason Giambi * NYY Wes Helms PHI Kevin Millar BAL Richie Sexson SEA Mark Teixeira ATL Frank Thomas OAK Jim Thome CWS Daryle Ward CHC That is not exactly an enticing list. If the Orioles miss on Texeira and Thome, they are going to be left with old and or bad players. Obviously I've focused on Baltimore here, but they are just the first team that I looked at. Nelson would be an attractive target for them to get for a few years until they have better options. For pre-arb players, that's all you need.

Part of Nelson's value lies precisely in that he is near his peak and should be a decent ML hitter for the next couple of years. Nobody is saying that Nelson should have a 10 year All Star career. Look at the Orioles for example. They are starting Millar at 1B and he is having a below average season. They have a 30 year old playing 1B in AAA and a couple of 24 year olds that aren't hitting well. The Orioles are a team that would be improved with Nelson, and he should be part of a trade package if one could be worked out for Brian Roberts or a reliever.

I think another thing here that matters is how teams stock their farm teams. The lower levels are clearly about development. But the AAA team is often used as an extended bench for the majors to stash players who will be called up in case of injury. There are probably a few Huntsville players that are better than their AAA counterparts, but there isn't a drastic difference in AA and AAA in terms of opposition faced. There is also an intangible in keeping a bunch of propsects together in AA, they will form a bond that hopefully leads to a better clubhouse when those players get to the bigs. I remember reading Gammons say when Vlad was coming up that the Expos kept Vlad in AA longer because the AAA team was filled with a bunch of miserable veterans, and the positive friendly atmosphere in AA was more important than the minor bump in talent faced in AAA.

I have no idea how reliable the probable pitchers are at brewers.com, but they already have some of the rotation set. They list CC, Sheets, Parra, Blank, Suppan. If this is the case, I think one of two moves happens: Mota DFA or Dillon sent down. I think it will be Dillon down, he just doesn't have much of a role right now. That would mean McClung starts 7/21. 7/23 CC 7/24 Sheets 7/25 Parra 7/26 Bush (could be used as a reliever in the first few games after the ASB) 7/27 Suppan 7/28 CC 7/29 Sheets 7/30 Parra 7/31 Bush 8/1 Suppan 8/2 CC 8/3 Sheets 8/4 Parra 8/5 McClung (he goes two weeks without a start, probably gets a few short relief stints) 8/6 Suppan 8/7 offday 8/8 CC 8/9 Sheets 8/10 Parra 8/11 Bush 8/12 Suppan 8/13 CC 8/14 Sheets 8/15 Parra 8/16 McClung 8/17 Suppan 8/18 CC 8/19 Sheets 8/20 Parra (or put Bush here and Parra goes to BP for a short period to rest his arm and limit innings as some are suggesting) 8/21 offday 8/22 McClung 8/23 Suppan 8/24 CC 8/25 offday 8/26 Sheets 8/27 McClung/Parra 8/28 offday 8/29 Suppan 8/30 CC 8/31 Sheets 9/1 Bush 9/2 McClung/Parra 9/3 Suppan 9/4 CC 9/5 Sheets 9/6 Bush 9/7 McClung/Parra 9/8 Suppan 9/9... I think Yost only goes out a month in advance, so I've done too much anyway, and this is obviously just guesswork. I think they could do it, if they wanted to. Will be interesting to see what develops.

In all subforums, our goal is to maintain a civil and mature posting environment, where the discussion is thoughtful, substantive, and respectful. Was that respectful? silversurferr obviously has his biases. We can choose to engage his points. He can choose to respond or ignore them. Some people are just conditioned to think that a hitter can't be valuable if they are hitting under .250. We can do our part to inform or educate, but if a person chooses not to expand their knowledge, we should let it go. I thought that remarks like that were not encouraged here.

.284/.370/.442 is the translation for this year that comes up with the new tool from the creator of ZiPS. I linked it in the Stats forum for anyone that wants to recreate it. That OPS would place him right in the middle of 1B this season. Since this is a Nelson thread, I'll ask here: In another thread someone looked at the future offseason 40 man roster and minor leaguers that will need to be protected and thought that there might not be room to protect Nelson. Is that the general consensus? It would stink to lose a guy who is having such a good season. I figured that Nelson would be traded this month to a team that isn't deep at 1B as part of a package for a reliever.

Well, in this day and age, I can follow the West Virginia Power almost as easily and fully as I can follow the Milwaukee Brewers -- so why, in the big picture, is it weird for me to be happy if the Power run off a winning streak, even if the prospects on the team are regressing? As a Brewer fan, I don't know what the benefit is of the Power winning lots of games. To offer an extreme example, the Brewers could load up the Power roster with 27 year old non-prospects. They may win more games, but that isn't going to make the few prospects that are on the team better players. I've lived in a couple of minor league towns. I went to high school in Las Cruces, NM which is about an hour from El Paso. The Diablos were the biggest professional sports team in town. But as a fan you don't grow attached to players, because they aren't going to be there for a long time. You go to the game because it is cheap entertainment, it's a fun way to spend a summer night, and there are promotions and other entertainment besides the game on the field. I've also lived in Sioux Falls and Sioux City, which both had Northern League teams. They weren't affiliated, so you didn't see rising stars, but you had the same experience as you would get in going to a AA game. The main difference is that players making a comeback would use the Northern League as a way to get back. I saw a Saints game in Sioux City that featured Jack Morris and Dwight Gooden. That was a lot of fun.

The ninth inning today is an excellent example of why Hall is a better offensive player than BranyAn in all aspects except raw power. This isn't true. Branyan's career OBP is better than Hall's and is also better compared to league average. BTW can anyone tell me how Braun is grading out defensively this year, I know he has no errors but that doesn't always tell the whole story, I didn't want to start a new thread. Zone Rating has Braun as the 6th best LF this season.