Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

kramnoj

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,293

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by kramnoj

  1. kramnoj
    There's no reason they shouldn't have simply let him rot in AAA until he proved he could at least get AAA hitters out, even if that meant he stayed down there the rest of the season. Is that true? I thought that a team couldn't make a player stay on the DL if they felt healthy. And if Gagne isn't on the DL, they can't keep him in AAA.
  2. kramnoj
    I believe Choate signed a split contract. If I understand that correctly, it means that the Brewers can keep him in the minors now, but if he gets called up to the majors, he will need to stay up or clear waivers if sent down. I'm sure someone will correct me if I got that wrong.
  3. kramnoj
    I very clearly did so You really haven't. You have addressed the general idea that trading Sheets away is a bad idea, but you haven't specifically addressed what I've been talking about. I'm wondering if you have actually read everything I've said. I've very clearly said that Melvin has said that he won't trade Sheets and that this is hypothetical but you still feel the need to point out that Melvin won't trade Sheets. I've specifically said that I wouldn't trade Sheets for just prospects, but that's what you are talking about. I would only trade Sheets away for a deal like what Houston gave away for the Big Unit. A pitcher like Freddy Garcia who is able to start the next season and be a 1/2 type pitcher and throw 200 innings in 5 of the next 6 seasons. That would make the next team immediately better and would set them up for the next 6 years. The chance of that happening with a draft pick is lower. If we agree that we have different opinions about that, that's fine, but don't pretend that I'm not a fan of the Brewers because I want them to be better next year.
  4. kramnoj
    Braun got 8 years $45 million, Corey would certainly go for less, say 7 years $34 million The difference is that Braun was 3 years away from making big money. Hart might get $5 million in arbitration next year already, and he will earn much more in FA. Torii Hunter is somewhat similar to Hart in OPS+ for the last year and a half and Hunter just signed a 5/$90 million deal this offseason. Add the 10% or so inflation that seems to exist in FA contracts...well, it's hard to believe, but that would be around $24 million per year down the road. I know it sounds crazy, but who thought Hunter would get 5/$90 mil this offseason? Looking at the deal Braun signed, he gets $4, $6 and $8.5 mil in the three arby years. Braun obviously took a discount because it was guaranteed so early, but I think we can look at that contract and the Hall contract for comparison. I would say something like 5, 7, 9 in the three arby years and then try to buy out a FA year or two around 12-15 mill. So maybe a 4 year deal for 33 mil or 5 year 46 mil. And that is probably low.
  5. kramnoj
    Wow, Oswalt has been homer-riffic this year. His career high for HRs given up in a season is 18 and that was in 241 IP. This year he has given up 17 in 102 IP. His K-BB rate is still good, but he's giving up more hits and more runs are being scored. By ERA+ he is performing as basically replacement level so far. I can see why the Astros might entertain the thought of giving him up.
  6. kramnoj
    The Brewers control his rights for 3 years after this year.
  7. kramnoj
    Trading by far the best pitcher on the team when you're only two games out of a playoff spot is just ridiculous. I agree, it is. But I also find it ridiculous that the team hasn't made an offer to Sheets to keep him. Sheets will be gone. Once we accept that, then the Brewers should do what they can to get the best return out of him leaving. If no team is desperate and won't give up 2-3 major league ready or close pitchers, than keep Sheets and go for the playoff run. But if the Brewers can increase their odds of winning in the near future and for multiple years, I definitely make that deal.
  8. kramnoj
    Really? So the text in blue wasn't sarcastic? Why make it in blue then? I love a good discussion. Feel free to actually engage my points. The picks that the Brewers will get when Sheets leaves might not turn into major leaguers by the time that Fielder, Weeks and Hardy are on the team. I would love to watch this group compete for a championship. I strongly believe that getting major league prospects by trading away Sheets to a desperate team at the deadline is the best way to make that happen. I don't want Sheets to go at all. I want the Brewers to aggressively sign Sheets. But that isn't happening, and it doesn't sound like it's going to happen. It doesn't sound like the Brewers are interesting in trading Ben either, so this is all hypothetical.
  9. kramnoj
    Wow, utterly amazing to me that any Brewers fan would be willing to punt away this year even though we are a measly 2 games back from leading the race for a playoff berth. That's because you are thinking as a fan for this year. I'm thinking as a fan of the team going forward. If you can't accept that, that's fine, but sarcasm doesn't belong in a rational discussion.
  10. kramnoj
    Is there someone here who has said that we should expect 3 HoFers? 10 years ago Houston wanted to make a splash for the stretch run and traded the futures of Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen and John Halama for Randy Johnson. It all depends on how desperate another team is. I wouldn't trade Sheets just to trade him, but if some team became so desperate that they were willing to give up major league ready pitching that would make the Brewers better for the next 6 years I would do it. Jack does draft well, no question. But major league ready prospects are closer to contributing, will have a better chance of success and you also get the benefit of not having to pay their signing bonus.
  11. kramnoj
    wouldn't want to decrease the odds of winning this season to increase the odds next season. There are so many things that can go wrong within a season that if you have a chance to make the post season you shouldn't pass it up. Neither would I. But I would trade one season for 6 future seasons. And the other benefit of prospects as opposed to draft picks is that they would be closer to the major leagues, and could contrubute as soon as next year. The picks from Sheets leaving probably won't impact the Brewers for at least 2 years, and often 3-5 years down the road.
  12. kramnoj
    Trading Sheets, in my opinion, is giving up on the season. I agree with you. My point was that I would rather decrease the odds of winning this season and increase the odds of winning in future seasons, if it meant that I could get prospects that would be better than 2 draft picks. But that doesn't matter, as it seems clear that the Brewers won't trade Sheets.
  13. kramnoj
    I'm not quite sure what "6 future years of near major league ready prospects" means, It means having 6 controlled years of the best prospects of another team that should be able to be plugged into the Brewers roster tomorrow or at the latest next year. Are some really ready to give up when we are 1.5 games behind the wild card leader and have the third best record in the NL??? I don't know if some are or not. That's not my personal preference. But if the team has absolutely no interest in retaining Sheets, I would prefer him to be dealt for star prospects than let him walk for picks. But it doesn't really matter what my preference is. It sounds like the Brewers aren't going to trade Sheets and it sounds like they've come to the conclusion that some other team is going to offer more than they are in FA. Based on the Doug Melvin conversation talked about it in another thread, it actually sounds like Melvin is going to make a trade for another pitcher and really go all in this year. Should be an interesting summer.
  14. kramnoj
    They aren't in the playoffs if the season ended right now, and I don't think that the recent performances of Bush and McClung are sustainable and chances are high that Torres is eventually going to blow a couple of games. I don't really think that the Cards can hold this up either, but I never thought they would last as long as they have. There is talk over at BBTF that the Brewers might trade for Sabbathia for the stretch and go for the playoffs Marlins style, letting both Sheets and Sabbathia leave for the draft picks. There is a certain appeal to that approach, which entirely depends on how much Sabbathia will cost.
  15. kramnoj
    Yes, lets never try to compete for the playoffs, lets just keep developing prospects forever. It's so much fun to lose every year as long as I can read here about how the major league team would be improved if they just brought up _______ from AAA or AA. As good as the Brewers have been for the last month, they aren't currently in the playoff picture. Which would you rather have: 3 months of rolling the dice and hoping this team makes it, or 6 future years of near major league ready prospects? I would personally like the team to keep Sheets and aggressively try to keep him in the offseason, but if the Brewers have aleady determined that they have no chance of retaining Ben, I would love for them to put him on the market and see what we can get.
  16. kramnoj
    Huh? Having less wins is an advantage? Heavy is the head that wears the crown. I do get the sense that some teams play tighter when they have a lead in the standings and a team is chasing them. Certainly the Cubs don't seem to be showing that, but I thought that at times about the Brewers last year. Same could be said of the Mets last year. Sure, it's psychobabble, but that doesn't mean it's not sometimes true.
  17. kramnoj
    Suppan is a number 4 or 5 starter I don't really think you can make a case that Suppan is a #5 starter on the Brewers. You can say that he would be a good #5 starter for a team that expects to make the playoffs. But for baseball in general Suppan is right at the margins of a 3/4 and he has been a 3 for most of his career. The Brewers don't have anyone in their system that would push Suppan out of a starting job, and I doubt they would be able to get his production cheaper in the FA market. He signed a market value contract and the Brewers are a better team with Suppan on it.
  18. kramnoj
    Taking a quick look at ESPN player stats, it looks like Fielder is in a 4-way tie for 8th with 61 DPs. There are obviously DPs that don't involve Fielder, but it was the quickest way that I knew to look into it. Edit: Just realized that I was looking at 1B only. Disregard.
  19. kramnoj
    From the creator of ZiPs, there is a new spreadsheet that he is calling zMLE: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/zmle_worksheets/ . Fun toy to play with. Thought I'd post it here for anybody that doesn't get to bbtf regularly.
  20. kramnoj
    http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html shows how much a team can expect to score in given situations. I know it's not what you are basing your bet on, but it is helpul. With the minimum situation of a guy on 3rd and one out, a team average .983 runs in that inning. Of course, there are lots of variables. There will be innings in that situation where a team might score 6 runs in that inning, so it doesn't tell us how often a team actually scores in that situation.
  21. kramnoj
    I heart Sheets. I really want him to come back next year.
  22. kramnoj
    There is no way he is going to continue slugging .800, so this is definitely a hot streak. In 2005 in Milwaukee hit .257 and got on base almost 38% of the time (I'm guessing that's where you got your numbers since they are so close), so those are definitely in his reach. I think a slugging of .525 isn't unreasonable either. There is a chance he can go through some slumps where some people will call for him to go down, but it certainly looks like his new stance has helped him.
  23. kramnoj
    But when I dared to copy-n-paste an excerpt from endaround, *boom!* here comes his buddy, Ennnnnder to get all worked up, and make it personal. *sigh* What was personal in that, other than pointing out that you wrote it? Also, do you really not know how many "n"s are in Ennder, or is this you putting in a shot against another poster?
  24. kramnoj
    You think a difference of just under 80 IP is eerily similar? There's no question that Harden has a lot of talent. I'm just disputing calling him a proven ace when he acutally hasn't done that for anything close to a full season.
  25. kramnoj
    In my opinion, I would love to have Counsell back next year, it's just a question of budget. If the Brewers keep Sheets and all their arby players, it might be tough to fit Counsell in there as well. The utility role might go to Crabbe, or Irribarren, or make Hall the platoon 3B and spot him at other positions as needed (although his defense has slipped this year, not exactly what you want out of the utility infielder).
×
×
  • Create New...