kramnoj

He said that we are very well built for 2010. I don't agree that having a 22 year old that is better than Bush is now makes the team very well built.

You have a lot more confidence than I do in 20 year olds that haven't shown anything in AA yet.

Where do you see Gamel playing in 2010? Do you see Hall as an expensive super-sub? I agree that there should be plenty of talent on the offensive side, but I don't see it on the pitching side right now. Of course, the June draft could change that.

I thought it would be fun to look to 2010 to see what a Brewers team could look like. There are obviously many, many variables here, and this is just one guys opinion based on some facts, some guesses, and a lot of opinions. First I'll look at guaranteed contracts. Jeff Suppan: $12.5 million Bill Hall: $8.4 million David Riske: $4,5 million So far we are looking at $25.4 million for a back of the rotation pitcher, a starting 3B, and a relief pitcher. We don't know what the budget will be for 2010, but that figures to be at least 25% of the budget, and probably more. Let's look next at current starters that will still be under control for the next two years. I'm using hardballtimes Win Share value as an estimator, because it's easy, and because I would just be guessing if I did it any other way. JJ Hardy, 5 years service time: $7 million David Bush, 5+ years: $8 million Weeks, 4+ years: $7 million McClung: 5+ years: $1 million Fielder: 4+ years: $12 million Hart: 4+ years: $10 million Villenueva: 3+ years: $5 million These are obviously very rough numbers, but that looks to be about $50 million for arb eligible players. So we are talking about $75+ million for 10 players. I don't know what Braun's Super 2 status is, so I'll leave that alone. That leaves us with pre-arb players in the majors. Braun Gallardo Parra Stetter We're now at 14 players and over $77 million. With a big assumption that the Brewers money will be spent on retaining current players, I don't think there will be much, if any money available to spend on free agents. I'm going to guess that the rest of the roster will be filled with current minor leaguers in the system, or stopgaps like Cameron and Kendall while monitoring the development of players in the system. So our rotation could be Yo, Parra, Villanueva, Suppan, Bush. The bullpen could include Riske, Stetter, McClung, plus young guys in the system, or fringe major leaguers. The starting 8 could be fairly similar to what we have today, with one of the young Brewers or a stopgap instead of Kendall and someone new in CF. My personal hope is for Hart in CF and LaPorta in RF. The bench could have Gwynn and Escobar, or some combination of major league filler and other young talent. There's obviously lots of things that could be different. Some team may offer a trade for Suppan that Melvin wants, Bush could be traded or non-tendered, Weeks or Hardy could be traded to make room for Escobar. I obviously also am not including anybody that will be taken in this year's draft. It's possible that some of the talen taken in June could make it to the 2010 roster as significant contributors. I did this mostly for my own education, as I wanted to understand the tough choices that this team will have to make in the near future. Since I did the little research that I did, I thought I would share it, to see what others thought.

Thanks for the responses. For some reason I thought defensive positioning was given by signals, but it makes sense to have a gameplan in place.

I hadn't seen this before. Last night, there was a shot of Ryan bringing a piece of paper out of his back pocket. Anyone know what that was? Does he have a cheat sheet telling him where to stand against certain players? Thanks in advance to anyone who knows!

I've been thinking about starting a thread predicting the 2010 Brewers. There are so many variables that it would be impossible for me to do a good job, but I wanted to get a sense of what our young players will be making in a couple of years, and how that is going to affect roster construction. I don't envy the choices Melvin will have to make over the next couple of years.

I wonder if at some point teams will test manager's knowledge of baseball before hiring them. Do they know the run expectancy table, what is their plan regarding how a bullpen is used, etc. Heck, it would be interesting to have a candidate play Diamond Mind for a couple of seasons and see how they manage.

I'd expect Hardy to be a good .050 better than Escobar in OPS and Escobar to be a below average major league SS. He is backup type player. Escobar may well be a below average major league SS, but that doesn't mean he is a backup. There have to be below average players starting in the majors. In 2010 when Hardy is expected to make $6 million or more the Brewers may decide they can live with a below average SS and want to spend money elsewhere on the team.

I didn't like the show that Johnson had years ago on the afternoon, but I think he's fine now. I think he's learned to be a better host. What is it about him that irritates others so?

Big Reed, these are some moves Melvin has made this season: has traded away an outfielder, has demoted a starter that had led previously led the team in victories, and DFAd a former All Star closer. And you think he isn't doing enough? As I see it, there are a couple of other moves that people want Melvin to make: 1. Fire Yost. I'm not a supporter of Yost, but I'm not convinced that whoever replaces him would be better. 2. DFA McClung. I wasn't sure why he made the roster, but the team obviously believes in him. I trust their judgment over my own. 3. Bring up Branyan. I think this could be a good idea. Enough has been said about him elsewhere. 4. Bring up Weaver. I think this is premature. 5. Bring up LaPorta. This too is premature, although it has to be tempting if he continues to mash down in AA. I think Melvin is doing fine. The Brewers had a tough week and fans want to see things change. Patience and fandom are a tough combo.

They have to wait until the swelling goes down. They figured that would take a week or so.

I'd just like to point out that the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals won a World Series with an 83-81 regular season record This is true, but I don't expect this 2008 division to be Comedy Central, and I don't expect the Wild Card to be available for a mid 80's win team. Your point stands that if the Brewers got lucky with the combination of others misfortune, a playoff bound Brewer team could go deep. I think it's safe to say that the Brewers making the playoffs isn't likely, but not impossible.

I don't hate Hardy, but he is the first guy that I would let go among the current stars on this team once he becomes more expensive. I can see him on this team for another year or two beyond this year. Beyond that, I woud prefer Escobar and have Hardy's money to spend on another need.

" If you feel this nucleus can win are you prepared to have 3 or 4 guys take up over a third of the salary?" I am. That's why I think it's good to have cheap young talent like Escobar and LaPorta ready to step in and contribute. "If you think you can win now with 6 picks in the first 2 rounds you can snatch one and get him up. That was the point. If you don't believe that this nucleus you could see the Brewers draft high school kids or high ceiling college kids. That was the point, what do you want? " I personally think it's a mistake to base a draft pick on what might happen later in the same season, or even the next season. Pick the best player that you can sign.

" I have seen on Baseball Tonight and on heard on Fox Sports Radio that Matt LaPorta is the most ready guy in the minors to come in an make an immediate impact. Who's blocking him? Braun, Hart, and Fielder...the three CORNERSTONES of this ballclub." Hart isn't blocking LaPorta. When LaPorta is ready as a package, offensively and defensively, bring him up and move Hart to CF. That should work for a couple of years, when Hart will need to move back to a corner and LaPorta can take up 1B after Fielder is gone. "When the owner says he couldn't imagine spending as much as he is I can't realistically see Ryan Braun (who they have acknowledged they are negotiating with), Ben Sheets (who is gone regaurdless) , Prince Fielder (who is likely to get 10 million), and Corey Hart (who is quietly just doing what he does and that is produce). With 6 picks in the first 2 rounds and a talent the level of Ben Sheets and what he attacts in the trade market I think it is a questioned that seriously needs to be addressed." I don't understand what you are saying here. The Brewers should be able to afford all of those players next year, if they wanted to. I also don't understand what draft picks this year have to do with the talent of this year's team and how they can compete this year and next. How much help do you expect out of the draft picks in the majors over the next year? I'm also not sure that Sheets will get much in a trade. Unless the other team signs an extension with Sheets, they aren't likely to give up a whole lot for a rental.

"If you plan to move Hardy to 2nd or 3rd in the future you have to be sure Escobar is going to be an above average offensive player at the MLB level. " Why does Escobar have to have above average offense? He can be valuable for a few years with excellent defense and below average offense. As the stars of the team get more expensive, players like Escobar, cheap young players are exactly what the Brewers will need to fill out the rest of the roster. "Then then have to decide if Tony Gwynn Jr. is the answer in the outfield. He has shown some flash but will a guy who doesn't scare you with any sort of power project to anything more then a bit player?" If Gwynn can provide good CF defense and get on base at a league average clip, he will also be a valuable player for a few years. I don't think this decision has to be made by the trading deadline. At the end of the year there should be a little more evidence to indicate whether Cameron's option is worth it or if we can live with Gwynn at center for a year (or possibly, option 3, Hart to CF and LaPorta to RF). "Now you have to decide if Prince Fielder is worthy to be 1/10th of your salary next season and most likely higher after that. There is no doubt that the potential to have a 45/110 guy on your team is great but he could have a short run and is he going to be worth the potential contract he is in line for?" I don't understand why you think this decision has to be made so soon. Prince won't get the big award unless he puts up another monster year. If he puts up another monster year, than yes, he is worth it, for at least one more season. It's too early to blow up this team. The team should still be a fun team to go watch at the ballpark, and Melvin should be able to put together a near-contender next year with all of the controlled players on this team.

Why would you call me arrogant? There are words that can't be used here because they have different meanings. You have already agreed that this has been considered by some to be profane. I'm trying to understand why a mod would use a word that he knows has a vulgar meaning, and then would call a poster arrogant for trying to gain clarification.

"My plan would be to let Gagne walk, try to trade Soup and sign Ben to a 4 year contract. " I agree with much of what you wrote, but who do you have in the rotation if you trade away Suppan? Do you have confidence in a more expensive Bush, or one of the minor leaguers becoming a major league regular? Or do you think we can get a similar pitcher to Suppan for less money? I guess this is the tough thing about hitting the payroll limits, you have to choose where you want to be weak. If you retain Sheets and Suppan, we have to rely on younger players in our bullpen.

Ah, that does make sense. Don't teams have to offer arbitration in order to get compensated? Isn't that why the Braves traded Millwood away, because they were afraid he was going to make too much money? I realize this only affects the Brewers if Sheets doesn't get attractive FA offers and accepts arbitration. I know it doesn't happen often, but teams sometimes don't get picks because they don't offer arbitration for that reason.

"Get what you can for Sheets (and I mean a bigger trade, not draft picks). Get what you can for the other assets with value" MLB doesn't allow trading of draft picks. You can't even trade for a player in the first year after they were drafted. To answer the thread question, I guess it depends on the definition of good. I think the Brewers have players that are near average at most positions and they have a couple of players who could be very good-great this year. That meets my personal definition of good. I'm still hopeful that the Brewers can put together a good season, but with Yo gone, my confidence in that is not high.

I guess I'm curious. Is it then okay to curse here in foreign languages?

I was one of those who agreed with the Tulowitzki deal, and argued similar deals would be good for some Brewer players. At the time I argued for Braun, and I think I was considering Hart. IIRC, I said that injuries are a part of any long term contract, whether it be for a FA or to lock in salary before arbitration. Someone brought up career ending injuries, and I questioned how often that happens to young players. It's certainly true that the Rockies have lost some value in this deal now, but I still don't think it's a bad deal, and I wouldn't let this change how I felt about proposing a similar deal for the right Brewers.

Considering the other meaning of this word, I'm surprised it's not on the profanity filter.

Every body is different, but this is somewhat similar to my experience. I shredded my ACL in high school, and I couldn't even stand on it right away. After a few hours, my body did whatever it needed to do to adapt, and I was able to walk with a limp. I just thought I had tweaked it, and didn't do anything about it. A week later, my parents noticed that the swelling hadn't completely gone down and we went to a doctor, only to find that I had done the unusual, completely torn the ligament, like a rubber band that had been stretched too far. At that point the doctor said I had two options, have a ligament replacement surgery and go through a few months of rehab and wearing a brace for a year, or do nothing and just let the body heal, although it would never be fully healthy, and I would be more likely to suffer knee injuries if I did anything strenuous. Of course, this was back in 1986, so it probably has no relevance to medicine of today.