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pete

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Everything posted by pete

  1. pete
    Gee, the "clown" McClung was awesome again today. And the mighty Dave Bush goes again tomorrow. I'm sure if Yost had his way, he would be a lock for the rotation as long as he was manager, but if Bulldog doesn't improve from being a bad pitcher, or as Ned calls it "great," maybe others will force him to let go of him.
  2. pete
    A guy who hit .091 against RH and .244 against LH and not a very good OBP last year. The "pop" wasn't and isn't very evident. A decent defender but not much more. Not even close to what Gwynn brings to the team. Definitely a better team this year. I can't believe that people wanted to use a roster spot on the guy.
  3. pete
    April 22 versus Cards McClung: 13 pitches, 9 strikes, 3 outs, 2 Ks, 1 win
  4. pete
    I would think that he's already had an MRI if he was sore since the day after NY and they sent him back out.
  5. pete
    Dave Bush is on the team because of the bias of Yost. The idea of taking mediocre from the #3 through #5 is a recipe for finishing in the middle of the division or lower. I doubt he'll be in the league a long time. People point out that there was one play that wasn't perfect, but never mention when the defense bails him out.
  6. pete
    Bush had excellent defense behind him last start. They bailed him out a couple of times. He was below mediocre, which is much better than he was the first two times. That being said, he probably stays due to his relationship with Yost and perhaps others in the organization. He probably has to lose 7, 8, 9 games in a row or 12 of 14 or something like that before he suffers any consequences.
  7. pete
    McClung: 45 pitches, 28 strikes, 9 outs, 2 Ks, 1 BB. "McClung came in and was outstanding. He was the key to our victory right there." - Ned Yost
  8. pete
    But I was criticized for pointing out a logical fallacy. That is what a straw man argument is. The guy does it repeatedly as well which is argumentative and dishonest. Now pointing out the logical fallacy is a good thing? And no, the comment isn't patronizing, "darn" or otherwise. And by the way, using "darn" is prohibited plainly by the rules. So what's the story on FWIW and IIRC? Do you really stand by the comment that using "lol" is teen like and difficult for others to interpret? Seems like using abbreviations to a point that makes posts nearly incomprehensible is relatively common. How do you think a general baseball fan feels when a statement of opinion gets a response of a post that has ten or fifteen abbreviations (all or almost all of which are unknown to anyone but stat-heads)? The posts usually end with a clear conclusion though, they usually state that truth has been determined, the opinion is in error and no further question exists. Doing it is condescending and borderline insulting, yet it is quite popular. Does the relationship of "the board" with ennder and toolivebrew go beyond us all just being "posters"? That seems unlikely. If "the board" doesn't want to answer say that rather than being evasive or non-responsive.
  9. pete
    All right, i'll spell out an abbreviation. Are FWIW and IIRC okay? And c'mon, now you're defending being plainly and openly argumentative as okay? Please, look up condescension in a dictionary.
  10. pete
    Its hard to imagine anything that would be more valuable to a forum that is overwhelmingly dominated by stat-heads, than being able to point out logical fallacies. There is a reason that logic is taught in the same department as statistics. If you wanted to promote discussion and cordial, friendly behavior, you should be critical of people using straw men arguments. Instead you are critical of it. How do you explain that? You criticize being straightforward and honest as being "blunt" and to be something that you don't want. What do you want? You ought to look up the definition of "condescension" as well. If you follow the context of the thread, I don't think its condescending at all, yet you say that it is clearly so. What is your relationship with ender and toolivebrew? I don't think that's unreasonable to ask. If they're your posse, it'll be a lot easier to understand and accept the clique.
  11. pete
    Really, you have to look at the context of the thread. I find it hard to believe that Ennder hasn't received multiple strikes just for that thread alone. You make no reference to his repeated statements that openly claimed something which the statistic openly stated that it didn't provide. Its hard to come up with a scenario that would apologize for that behavior. I guess I could have used some sort of robotic response. But I have to wonder if it is because I disagreed with Ennder or toolive brew. To call it sophomoric is openly insulting and antagonistic. I'm lost as to why it would be pretentious or juvenile. Have you received a strike for being openly consescending and making a personal attack? And if the use of "lol" is forbidden, it should be stated in the rules.
  12. pete
    The PECOTA top 100 prospects list isn't an obscure stat. I merely pointed out how poorly it performed. If you want to say that it is claimed to be for careers, you should just quote the relative material or give a url. I don't really think it matters much as the first year is so bad. And for crying out loud why are you talking about the upside stat? Better yet, is there a peer reviewed analysis of PECOTA methodologies? How about its track record? I know Nate Silver loves it, but I think he is talking about his bank account.
  13. pete
    Not sure what question you're referring to, but the whole point of the discussion was that the designation of liners didn't define being hit hard and that the BIS number is of unknown quality and they admit to multiple factors in data collection that could only be described as crude. And I never claimed that the only thing was that he was being hit harder. You know I can even add acronyms to that but absolutely nothing you said refutes my point. Go back and look at the statistic I gave. Referring to a long list of attempts to quantify defense doesn't mean you've determined anything. All of them are based on two basic methodologies and the people who create them refer to their flaws and shortcomings. Thats why new ones are still being created every year and the ones that exist are always being rejiggered. The people who create them say that they aren't accurate enough to draw conclusions over short periods like seasons. A better sample period is a career. But hey, since RA is league middle, you must believe that Brewers pitching is well above average. Or maybe the team was lucky all year. (cleaned up code --1992)
  14. pete
    I'm capable, you're capable, and Endder is capable. Why would you make a statement like that? The last thing I'm doing is taunting him. I'm trying to get him to actually engage. LOL - YO - helloooooo... something that doesn't claim to provide data can't be more accurate at providing that data. How hard is that to understand that it has to be repeated? I hate to break it to you, but observation is fundamental to science. Its illogical to conclude that a pitch by pitch analysis is more accurate than observation of even a subset of those pitches.
  15. pete
    My understanding is fine. But hey, you argue that it isn't supposed to predict 2007 at all, and in the next sentence say that PECOTA projected them as impact players for 2007. But hey, I guess almost all those players rated as higher than Tulo will be "impact players" sometime during their careers. I wonder what percentage of them will make major league rosters.
  16. pete
    lol... actually I didn't and I wasn't planning on it. Why don't you give it a shot? The video observation doesn't claim to report the information!! That's a low threshold for accuracy.
  17. pete
    Jason Kendall hits right handers better than leftys unlike most of our lineup - sort of like having a quasi-lefty in the lineup. Mike Cameron hit four home runs against Rich Hill in four consecutive at bats (over two games) on four different pitches including one that was his high fastball. Do those qualify as "silver linings"?
  18. pete
    Ennder, if you look at what I wrote, I don't think you really addressed it. If anything you confirmed my impressions. But forget that. Are you able to describe Cappy's skillset? Not statistically, but description. I'd add that your "safe assumption" is highly debatable. The absolute best statistic for defense is runs allowed and the Brewers had 776 (IIRC) and I believe that would put them right about the middle in the NL. It is a statistic that rates pitching and defense simultaneously. If the defense was terrible or horrid or putrid or atrocious it would mean that the pitching was very, very good.
  19. pete
    You didn't really answer, but I confess, I already knew the answer. Its a stringer of unknown ability or accuracy, watching videotapes and categorizing them generally. BIS won't tell you how many stringers there are or if they are tested or rated against one another. Heck, the number and placement of cameras could have a major affect on the results. It could be what statisticians refer to as GIGO. But hey, you were claiming that scrappy Cappy wasn't hit hard and that raw data openly admits to not giving that information, so what good is that? Heck, if you said you like him as a player and your impression was this and that, it would work for me. Its not like you or I are going to affect the decisions of the team or his performance.
  20. pete
    Is that a yes or a no? Is it derived from a stringer looking at videotapes and assigning a general value? And you have no idea whether observation is more accurate or not.
  21. pete
    A porous infield or a lot of hard hit balls. Is your declaration of line drive numbers based on stringers looking at videotape and assigning a general value to hit balls?
  22. pete
    Pity the defense that has to play with him pitching. Its like a guy doing the soundtrack to a Marvel comic movie... BAM... CRACK... POW...
  23. pete
    Save the straw man arguments. I didn't say "the system is poor because of one of the more obscure stats it spits out didn't instantly project Braun, Tulo and Pence as top players." Please. The system did poorly with those three players despite your selective choice of statistics, and bolstering your argument by claiming accuracy of missed projections only raises the question of all the others who were projected higher and how they performed.
  24. pete
    but I think Braun, Tulo, and Pence are gonna have pretty good careers.
  25. pete
    I thought PECOTA was a Nate Silver creation. Am I wrong? Are the formulas secret? Isn't Kevin Goldstein another non-scout who sells his own products? Who says it has the strongest correlations of any system? My recollection is that the PECOTA top prospects for last year is the one you're noting had Braun/Tulo as 36/75. Those two guys ran away with the ROY competition. That's atrocious. Makes me wonder what Pence's rating was. Like I said, I wonder how many times he has to hit drives into the rough before somebody wonders if he is a good golfer - so to speak.
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