bill hAll Star

I don't disagree that he'll still have some good stretches, but to me that's part of the problem. If he just played like this all year, they could DFA him and play a better player regularly. But his occasional good stretches just keep toying with our emotions and when it's all said and done, he'll probably average out to a subpar bat at 1B/corner OF, just as you'd predict based on his age and injury history. Then you will be stuck wondering what could have been if they had just given all those pa's to a "career year" candidate in his healthy prime, like Aguilar or Choi. Basically it would be a repeat of his fluke bounce-back in 2016 on a smaller scale, and played on repeat. I dunno. The way Aguilar is going lately and what his splits ended up being last year and the fact that Choi is still an unknown in the majors makes me think you're inflating the difference between Braun and what we could also try on the roster. This month, Aguilar is .240/.330/.435 basically since he got more of a full-time role from Thames being out and Braun also being hobbled. Aguilar even got a 4 game trip to Coors in there and didn't do much for his May numbers. He can't hit righties very well. Braun was exposed to more of them early in the year. Aguilar basically crushed lefties and crappy RHP whereas Braun got a dose of more righties in April. Aguilar has a .380 BABIP...still. That's not gonna stay. Phillips, maybe. I don't know with him because he could come up and put up a .250/.340/.470 line with great defense or he could K 35% of the time and be a liability at the plate (not saying Braun isn't with his recent play). Also, given the injuries, Phillips not playing 1B makes it less plausible.

Not sure what you mean. It WAS that easy. We had Puig, we had BMac, and we had a prospect. Most importantly, we had Braun off the books. We had it done and haggled over the 2nd prospect and let it all far apart in the 11th hour. Exactly. I don't blame the Brewers for trying to get more, but they should have been going into it with the attitude that they would absolutely accept Puig and McCarthy if they had any concerns that the deal might fall through. They looked a gift horse in the mouth and it's looking like a huge mistake. The only very strong assumptions on display were about Braun's future performance and how his salary might affect the team. And it's not just the fact that they made a mistake (they'll make lots of those), it's the total lack of sound principles in their decision-making. Waiving Gennett was a mistake but a forgivable one, because they used sound principles and just guessed wrong. But keeping Braun relied totally on hoping that a player with his age and injury history would be anything but a huge liability at his salary, which was a terrible gamble considering he was less than a year away from earning his 10/5 rights and when the trade market was obviously very limited to begin with. This is about wishful thinking, foolish Braun nostalgia, and fiscal irresponsibility. Any other nuances of the deal are relevant, but are footnotes by comparison. Is it time to forget it and move on? Maybe, but don't dismiss the likelihood of the same mental blocks preventing the Brewers from making the right decisions with regard to Braun moving forward, up to and including keeping him on the DL or negotiating a retirement instead of continuing to trot him out their in lieu of better options in the thick of a pennant race. It's important to revisit the thought process that went into keeping him and scrutinize it thoroughly for that reason alone. I'm not sure how you "negotiate retirement" with a guy that just has to pretend to try to play baseball for 2 more years and he will collect $50+ million dollars. I guess you could try to tell him that he can move to the front office at the cost of giving $5 million back or something, but that seems fairly rare. Braun left a little bit of money on the table signing early the first time so he probably wants to make it all back. He does also seem like a guy that wants to just retire early in Milwaukee or LA and call it a day sometimes, so I guess some weird retirement has a 1% chance of happening. In terms of the trade, we don't know if the Dodgers also played a little bit of chicken or that maybe Stearns was pretty certain it could happen in the offseason. I won't debate it much more, though, you're probably right that they could've just done it for Puig and McCarthy. We'll never know, all we have is a report that it was haggling over the prospect. They've had several other players that they held on to longer and got a better deal with. They've won some and lost some in holding out and making moves. I agree that in principle you should trade away the guy before his contract goes bad at age 34 but a situation like this may not come up again for a long time. Cain may qualify in a few years, but it's rare that a team comes in offering something like the McCarthy/Puig package.

The Diamondbacks were trying to unload him before the season started. I think it'll take a bit of a drop in the standings now so that it isn't terrible PR, but I think they do it. They've gotten the good part of the contract and want to deal him before it becomes the bad part.

I still don't think I'd make that trade today. Salary and performance wise, McCarthy and Puig have not done better than Braun over that time period, and arguably have been worse. The only potential silver lining that could have come out of the trade would be to turn around and try to trade off Puig for some minor league help. It was never about performance. It was about trading Braun before he fell off a cliff and before his 10/5 rights kicked in. If we had made that trade our books would be completely clear of Braun's contract after this season plus whatever value we would've gotten out of Puig and McCarthy. Shouldn't this be one of the first moves that you've applauded Stearns for because it likely improves the Brewers' draft pick last year, this year, and potentially the next two having Braun and his salary stuck here? Tanking!

I still don't think I'd make that trade today. Salary and performance wise, McCarthy and Puig have not done better than Braun over that time period, and arguably have been worse. The only potential silver lining that could have come out of the trade would be to turn around and try to trade off Puig for some minor league help. I'm against CHL's opinion for other reasons, because he makes some very strong assumptions as to how easy the trade was to make, but we'd be out of McCarthy and Puig's contracts this year pretty much. And McCarthy pitched fairly well last year.

Oh yeah, that's right.

And Cruz's name has shown up in a few reports with no suspension.

Rosenthal has confirmed the rumors.

Very unsubstantiated reports that Cano may be suspended for PED use today. So far just some Dominican radio station guy is the beginning of this rumor, as far as I can tell.

Right, somebody mentioned "3 top 100 prospects" as the asking price to the Astros last year. And I agree that the Rays will be stingy with him. That was my initial point of contention with Meyer Bombs. They don't really need to get rid of him until they get good value. Not much of a point in giving him away unless the owners really want to put more money in their pockets.

That's fine - and you win some/lose some with that. Sometimes it's hard to know who that person is that will add power to their game. If it becomes a pattern that the Brewers keep giving up on guys that just needed a tweak or a bit more time, that's one thing. They made a mistake in judgment on this one in hindsight. It is what it is at this point.

I doubt him demanding a trade will really do much, but at what point do you ever find the happy middle point? Path A: Archer continues to suck. Even if the demands go lower and lower, how much of a risk do you want to take at a potential $30 million investment for the next 3 years (sure, you can decline his option, but what's the point there?) when he's a big risk to even outperform what we already have? Path B: He starts to pitch well again. Demand/price goes back up to several top 100 prospect type things that blocked the Astros and Brewers from trading for him in the last calendar year anyways...and he still has the risk of going right back into the tank.

Says the guy with a lot of hot takes himself. Why is it that you think a change of scenery will make him any better? His career numbers are heavy on strike-outs, but nothing else. I don't know that it will ... but I'll gladly take a chance on a proven workhorse with a successful past career, who is still relatively young and signed to an affordable deal with multiple years of control left. At the contract he's on, even if you need to throw him in the bullpen, it isn't going to kill you. Who knows what the Rays are asking via trade, but I can guarantee you that ask hasn't gone up in the last month. Also, all I was asking for was a little reasoning behind your opinion. I don't know how badly the Brewers need a "workhorse" anymore, though. Take a look at what they're doing with Chacin. Now, obviously, even if things are trending that way, I'm not sure you can get by with 5 Chacins and a bullpen that is expected to go 4 or 5 innings every single night. The Rays were asking for a ton before the season and that's why it never happened. If the price goes way down, sure, maybe. After this year, he's effectively on a 3 year, $30 million deal with options to end it every year now. This year would only be a $3-4 million hit when we trade for him, which I doubt is much of an issue. This year was "wait and see" with a bit of optimism towards competing now. The first quarter of the year is suggesting that we are going to likely be in the mix. That said, I'm not going to give up high prospects for a guy that I'm not sure is a mid/high rotation piece anymore just to see if we can turn it around for him...and the Rays probably won't be selling low. They can afford to wait even into next season if he's not pitching well right now. Finally, Archer throws a hard fastball and a hard slider. The velocity is dipping just a little bit this year but haven't dropped off...but those are the 2 pitches that do not last with all guys into their 30s. Tommy John risk goes up and if he's only throwing 92 instead of 95 or his slider has to be used less, he's probably a guy that won't be able to stick in the majors anymore. He's not a pitcher with a wide array of plus pitches to reform what he does to stay effective into his 30s.

I don't think Archer stinks at this point for eternity and I see the potential for him to return to being good, but the cost to trade for him had better be pretty small or I'm not doing it. Career numbers are generally are what I use for guys to tone down some overreaction, but for pitchers like Archer, he may never be able to return from a downward trend.

I don't know if anyone in baseball believes that Orf is higher upside than any of the current guys we have out there. Might be an explanation. I don't think Dubon is very high upside either but he might've gotten a shot before the injury.

Drake - yes, there were some MLB caliber young guys behind him and maybe they waited a few weeks too long or never should've had him on the roster this year. Who are these high-upside guys you speak of behind Franklin, Sogard, etc? Hiura is not really an option yet for reasons discussed like his arm injury. I agree with giving Villar a bit more of a role, but beyond that, we don't have a ton of upside...and Villar has not exactly done much with it.

As has been battled on this board with about 10 prospects discussed from Colorado Springs, the Rockies play in similar conditions. I'm glad we got the hits, but if we hit the ball all over Coors, I'm not calling it a cure for our ailments.

It's even more weird because Aguilar, Santana, Braun, and probably Cain should be feasting on LHP. Might it somewhat be that we've faced a disproportionately good set of LHP, many of which were benefiting from the "book isn't out on them yet" advantage? Lucchesi - good young pitcher, MLB debut Lester Quintana x2 - Owns us, wind blowing in @Wrigley for one of them Matz - hit him pretty well Carson Smith - First time seeing him, promising pitcher Kingham - First time seeing him, promising pitcher Matz in his later days of decreased velocity and lack of slider is basically the only pitcher there that I'd have a good feeling about knocking around. Just trying to figure it out, because we should be smoking lefties.

Villar is still better against LHP's for his career. I don't think anybody really wanted Franklin or Sogard or Blanco over Orf this week. It's the negativity about the front office's decision-making and the complaining that rubbed several of us the wrong way. The idea that Orf is likely to be a little better than any of those guys is just not really supported by any objective evidence. The evidence actually supports the other 3 as being slightly more talented players, although Sogard and Blanco might be too far past their primes. It's already kind of annoying when fans complain about moves the team made, but when the front office is actually doing a great job and making the rational choice and people complain so adamantly, it's 10x more annoying. People could be right or wrong about Orf, but on the whole the front office is so much better than any of us that's it not even funny. People should enjoy it while they can because that's not always the case. See the Bucks for the last 25 years, for example, if you want to understand how frustrating it can be to be a fan of a team where you would literally probably do a better job than the front office. I bet my salary that the Brewers' front office crushes every single one of us in decision-making over the last few years, even if a few of us have, by pure luck, occasionally out-guessed them on what they should have done in a situation. And yet, outside of the first two months of last year, they've put together a totally craptastic offense. And to remedy the problem they replace a proven failed hitter (Sogard) with an equally proven failed hitter (Franklin) and replace him with an even worse proven failed hitter (Saladino). Don't get me wrong, I think Stearns has done a great job. But a lot of the moves made since the end of last year have been confusing to baffling. The Sogard one can be criticized. Maybe they thought he turned some corner or after for whatever reason they didn't pursue Walker (who is struggling) more or they blew the timing of it not realizing he'd come so cheap, they went with Sogard, who I never believed in, but yeah, you can criticize that because you're going with a very low ceiling option as possibly your starting 2B. Beyond that, that's baseball. They have a great prospect that they're not ready to call up for very understandable reasons in Hiura. Everyone is going to be stuck with proven failures as backup options if they don't have a great prospect waiting in the wings. I randomly chose the Braves, for example: If Albies goes down for the year, their options are: Ryan Flaherty Phil Gosselin Christian Colon Rio Ruiz In AA, I don't have a strong read on these prospects, but I don't think they are studs by any means or are not currently ready to be one: Luis Valenzuela Travis Demeritte Alay Lago That entire list is probably going to give you Saladino/Franklin-type production. Flaherty is actually having a magical year as their utility/replacement guy, but he's a career .650 guy. There are only probably 10 really good 2B in the league, maybe 20-30 serviceable ones like a later career Starlin Castro. And after that, you're going to be trotting out the Nick Franklins of the world unless you've got another stud waiting there that you want to promote potentially early. You guys are somewhat right about the offense somehow not being right, but I also don't expect magic out of my GM. Again, going with Sogard might have sucked, but if anyone's starting 2B goes down, you're likely going to be starting a Saladino or Phil Gosselin. The only teams that can withstand this are maybe the Yankees or somebody like that that will just call Miami and buy Starlin Castro and not worry about the prospects they may have to give up.

I actually despised Sogard being on the roster and getting so many chances and ditto on Drake. I have no affinity for Franklin. I'm OK trying something different (I'd like to get creative going out-of-house). I just am totally fine with a guy like Orf not really getting a chance because I tend to agree with them that he's very likely to be worse than the other options. If they want to give Orf a shot, go ahead. It can't be much worse, that's for sure. And yeah, go with Villar for the bulk of starts for now.

It's already happening this year - Aguilar is much worse against RHP. I definitely understand the struggles of Domingo, but give Aguilar more ABs against RHP and his numbers will begin to plummet.

This is actually an interesting fandom question and maybe it can answer your "scouting" question that "we don't know" (I'm trying to give a hint to what the scouts may see). Can you find more than a handful of players that hit less than 5 homers in an MLB season that do not have elite speed that routinely put up over a .700 OPS? We can quibble over projected homers, but I think given that Orf won't be a full-time guy and that Colorado Springs helps him out a bit, that he is probably a ~5 HR type of guy. Tommy La Stella is one of the few I can think of and he has displayed much more power than Orf coming up.

That's different. Houser and Williams are projected major league talent. It lays out the logic perfectly though. Our coaches/scouts said Drake projected better so why would you question it? They should go that route then. Turns out they were wrong. Lol, you can convince yourself it's logic. Instead, the scouts/coaches projected Drake to be a better fit given Drake's standing on the MLB roster compared to Houser/Williams, both of which had just progressed to the MLB level. Both Houser and Williams project to guys that could stick in the majors. Orf does not. That's a difference. Houser and Williams are like Hiura in this case. We can be pretty sure that Hiura is better than Sogard, Villar, etc. but it won't be until 2019.

He's been an above- to well-above- average hitter every year except for 2016, when he was about average for his league(s). Whether you want to look at wRC+: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa579765&position=2B Or WARP: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/103573/nathan-orf (5.2 WARP in 2015!) He was also one of the older players at each level. Saladino put up great wRC+ numbers the past few years at AAA when he was "older" for those leagues and also at AA once he matured into it. He struggled earlier on but he was also in his early 20s. Sogard and Franklin also put up good wRC+es at younger ages. There is context to this instead of just plugging wRC+ in.

That's different. Houser and Williams are projected major league talent.