bill hAll Star
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Everything posted by bill hAll Star
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Oh...OK.
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I'm not a major fan of acquiring Archer or Realmuto but I would probably take both of those packages. Hiura would be the one big loss but I think I could handle it.
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I'd suggest that following professional sports teams may not be for you, then. Nearly 100% of owners are like this and I don't think it's changing. If I was to put my rich guy glasses on for a moment, it isn't just Attanasio. He has a group of investors to appease. He needs to keep the profit for them as well. I'm sure they'd all live if a theoretical Machado deal went belly-up. But, I mean, I'll just guess and say you're a late 30s guy with $250k in the bank/savings for retirement someday. Would you give up $50k for a Manny Machado 10 year contract? It's impossible to compare apples to apples here, but in theory, you should be fine without that $50k, right?
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I think we need to remember that the end goal of player acquisition and building the minor league system is to win a World Series. Literally nothing else is as important than that. I'd take a Series win over 5 straight division championships with NLCS bow outs any day of the week. Edit: I'm agreeing with you 3and2Fastball, if that was unclear. This is a business run by rich people that are rich for a reason. We can yell this at a cloud all we want, and by all accounts, by greedy rich person standards, Mark and Co. have gone somewhat further than some franchises have in terms of spending close to a deficit some years...but outside of maybe a few Mike Ilitch years where he probably pushed it, I don't see many owners running a deficit because a few fans on a message board are imploring them to do so. I also find it funny that half of this board is chalking up a World Series victory if we make some "win now" moves like Machado. It probably increases our odds from 5% to 8% for one season. If we're maybe more certain of a playoff spot later in the year, maybe it takes it from 9% to 12%.
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Here's the thing, though: Last offseason "freaked players out" because 4 or 5 of the big dogs tried to sit under the luxury tax threshold specifically because they were waiting it out until this coming offseason. Those teams will all be back in play and bidding against one another. And to add to that, the players that were freaked out were non-elite, late 20s/early 30s players. Machado is not that. Someone will think he's elite enough. And he's only going to be 26.
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7 years $210-$230 million, front loaded with $120 million over the first 3 years, opt out after 4 years. It can be done. 1. I don't think that's enough for his contract. He can do better. 2. If it is and you frontload $40 million/year for the first 3 years, that means that the Brewers' payroll is going to likely be $150 million in 2019 and probably 2020 unless they do some drastic payroll slashing elsewhere. I doubt we see that. I know someone will bring up that they will "pay it forward" with their savings from 2016 and 2017, but not that much.
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I was trying to craft a Machado contract for fun and the issue is in the short-term. If one wants to basically hitch their wagon to Machado for the next decade, in theory, it could be swung. It's probably stupid but it would not be insanely shocking. I even think that if he was willing to go to $130 million team salary for 2-3 years and backload the contract it could be done. The problem is that Machado will likely want an opt out after 2 or 3 years with some huge $ in years 1 and 2. Unless Mark wants to go to $150 million for his team salary, I don't see that happening.
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There is no such thing as a "missing piece." We could trade for Kershaw, Machado and Harper and there's still a good chance we wouldn't win the World Series. Then why even try then The Brewers currently are trying. Their GM is very shrewd and won't make a deal unless it seems to be very much in his favor. It may be more of an extended window with many playoff opportunities. Now, at a certain point you may just have to go for it, but I'm not sure we're there yet.
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Pitching at the deadline
bill hAll Star replied to Madhawk23's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Liriano is Brent Suter with a luckier start to the season. I'd consider Ross, Happ, and a compelling argument would have to be made for the top list. I probably convince myself that the asking price is going to be too high for most of them. I mean it's not like getting deGrom would be a bad thing but I just am too afraid of the depressing idea of still missing the playoffs and emptying the farm. -
The Padres have about 14 young-ish OFs that are or were highly rated with some sort of flaw (mostly strikeouts) that they basically have a revolving door with for tryouts plus Wil Myers, so Broxton is not someone that they'd want.
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I tend to assume the best intentions in people with things. Even knowing that the O's don't like to fully rebuild, I feel like their ownership cannot be stupid enough to try to quickly retool. They have to be looking for rebuild-ish players.
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What should be DS targets
bill hAll Star replied to brewmann04's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I dont disagree with that. I rather pay a little for a guy like him however.. than overpay for a Hamels or other guys discussed who will command more and for in - most cases - not give you any more than we currently get. That's fair...if any move is only $ and the $ isn't huge, I'm fine with it. That said, it seems to not do much. Get an upgrade or just roll with what you have. -
What should be DS targets
bill hAll Star replied to brewmann04's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Colon does absolutely nothing for me on this team. His only advantage over guys like Suter is that he can go longer into games generally with the same caliber of pitching (maybe). If we're adding a pitcher, it's somebody that gives us marked improvement in innings 1-5 or 6 in the playoffs. The extra innings pitched does not help much with the team we have. We can handle guys like Chacin and Suter going shorter, especially once we get to September. Colon's BABIP against is also .210. There may be something to generating some weak contact, but his surface numbers are likely going to regress. -
Trading From Depth- 1B/OF
bill hAll Star replied to pacopete4's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I agree with the majority of your post, but I'd be really careful with that comparison. Mark Reynolds, save for this hot stretch to open the year and the Coors juice of the 2 prior years, had not done anything for a long time. And Reynolds was just as bad as he always had been away from Coors. I think there may be a bit going on here with Jesus, though maybe it's an early season sample thing. He has bumped up his fly ball % and line drive %. I was not a "Aguilar is for real" backer early this year, but I'm getting on board. Now, your point does remain that it still is tough to broker a trade given that a contending team is probably who would want Aguilar and I doubt any of them would be handing away good pitchers, but Aguilar, even if he's closer to last year's version, is still probably well above Reynolds in value. -
What should be DS targets
bill hAll Star replied to brewmann04's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Corbin's velocity has been way down his past 4 starts. I am a big fan of his curveball revolution, but the velocity dip does scare me. -
Im sure he looked at the only numbers he thought matters to glod glove voters. The offensive numbers. I think after backlash to that controversial Jeter year 8 years ago where he was one of the worst defenders in baseball and won the award, they basically defaulted to picking out of a hat between UZR, dWAR, etc. for the award. They actually do a decent job now.
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I'd add that given Reyes coming up, O'neill turning into Khris Davis Jr. potentially, etc. and the Cubs probably still being pretty good the next 3 years, I'd further like to play the long game and not put all of our eggs in one basket. We' have to have a substantial lead right now before I'd be OK emptying things out. The above paragraph does suggest that we're going to have tough competition for several years, but the last thing I want to see happen is emptying our farm system out for Machado or Realmuto with a 2 game divisional lead and have the Cubs get white hot and win 98 games and we lose the Wild Card game. Yes, I get the idea that getting Realmuto means a good MLB team for 2-3 more years, but I'd rather keep the pipeline stocked. If we've fallen short of the playoffs or going very far in 2-3 years, then we can talk about getting more impressive, maybe.
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Nothing like emptying out the next 4-5 years of exposure and success for a game or two extra games on FS1 in August.
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Amen. I get that their ownership has been penny-pinching, but it's basically Prado and Chen as the only contracts on the books after this year. It would have to be a serious cash grab by ownership at this point because the books are very clear coming up. They could probably run a $75 million payroll next year without any shakeup and then a $50 or $55 million payroll in the final (hopefully) year of their tank with zero contracts on the books after that.
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Texas Rangers - open to trade vets
bill hAll Star replied to Matt Breen's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Is it worth $20+ million dollars to acquire a cliche that we are not completely sure exists in him? As a pitcher I'd be on the fence. I'm all for the salary absorption type moves and his K/9 is promising but we may be stretched pretty thin in 2019 with his buyout or if we pick up the option. -
Was the Bandy/Maldy trade something along the lines of options? Like, the Brewers had a bit of depth at catcher in their rebuilding years and wanted to try several guys out whereas they were stuck with Maldonado on the MLB roster? I don't remember the exact terms but it seemed to be a "we get slightly less value but some added flexibility" in the catching swap. The Vogt thing hurts. I think the plan was Pina/Vogt 2018 and then see if Nottingham is ready or if Pina was really as legit as 2017 for your 2019 plan. Now if they'd bring up Nottingham he probably has to be your starter because otherwise you want him developing in AAA getting regular work. So enter Jett Bandy who just exists because he's a warm body that can catch every 4th or so day while we wait.
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He has a small enough number of ABs against lefties that even that LHP number may go down just a bit given his lucky BABIP so far. That said, I agree that he's a great righty platoon hitter either way. We were just saying that if he's exposed to a regular role, he begins to become more of a mediocre asset to the team.
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His BABIP is .380 right now, which is 40-50 points higher than his career, which was probably a lucky season last year to be honest (and last year is basically his total career numbers). If we have the luxury of a nearly full platoon he faces mostly lefties and some righties off the bench when days off are needed or pop off the bench is needed, he's a .260-.270 hitter. If he's exposed to a lot of righties, he's a .240 hitter. When Thames comes back, he doesn't have to be. I've been skeptical of Aguilar but he killed lefties last year and continues to do so this year even more so. (.902 OPS last year, 1.032). Incredible as it may sound -- there is no reason for Braun to continue to supplant Aguilar in the 1B platoon once Thames returns. That's obviously subject to change again, but as of right now, can't see any reason not to play Aguilar at 1st vs. any lefty. Yes...exactly as I said, Aguilar is fine as a righty platoon bat and pop off the bench. He's going to be a mediocre/subpar hitter (for a poor defensive 1B) if exposed to everyday work.
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His BABIP is .380 right now, which is 40-50 points higher than his career, which was probably a lucky season last year to be honest (and last year is basically his total career numbers). If we have the luxury of a nearly full platoon he faces mostly lefties and some righties off the bench when days off are needed or pop off the bench is needed, he's a .260-.270 hitter. If he's exposed to a lot of righties, he's a .240 hitter.
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As much as Arizona would want to get rid of that thing, they probably are becoming more and more "win-now" and just let Greinke's contract rot in its final year or two. Factor in that Walker is probably useless for 2019 or cannot be counted on, and it seems like all-in this year with the Dodgers struggling, somewhat in in 2019, and 2020 is probably in flux and they start trading off anything left if it doesn't look good prior to or early in the season. Players' contracts up after this year: Pollock Corbin JDLR Descalso Players' contracts up after 2019: Goldschmidt Avila Owings Boxberger Yasmany Tomas' dead contract they are paying for Players' contracts up after 2020: Ray Walker Lamb Souza Peralta I just don't know if you bring back Goldschmdit, Pollock, Corbin, anyone in the 2018/2019 list given that everyone else is in expensive arbitration at that point that you can go anywhere given that I don't think they have a loaded farm system. So now they're left with keeping Greinke and praying the next 2 years and just letting him take the ball every 5th day and put up a 4.80 ERA in the twilight of his career on a 75 and then 70 win team while the rest of their payroll is nothingness.
