bill hAll Star

Just want to make this clear that if Eric Sogard stayed down in the minors until age 28 and was allowed to hit at Colorado Springs, I would absolutely guarantee he'd put up a .320/.400/.480 type line playing in Colorado Springs/PCL just as Orf has. I'm glad that this is the end of Sogard, and Orf could be a modest improvement...but I really hope people temper their expectations of the older prospect with no power hitting in BABIP utopia of Colorado Springs.

Orf can't be worse than Sogard, but I don't see Orf as much more than a Sogard-type player (.650 OPS kind of guy).

It would be one thing if it was just his attitude. I'm not sure if anyone is going to be able to add 3-4 MPH back on his fastball and 2-3 MPH on his slider that he had in 2015, the last time he was very successful.

Yeah, this works really well. A lot of teams won't want Machado as a rental - but he works perfectly for the Dodgers. And LA has a deep farm system so they can make that kind of a deal. I don't think the Dodgers are going to do this unless a bunch of teams freeze out the O's (since they'll all have the "it's his last year, take it or leave it" leverage) and the bidding goes down. I think their team is truly in peril for 2018 and Friedman doesn't seem like the kind of guy that is going to dismantle pieces for 2019 and beyond to potentially still miss the playoffs.

Agree. I'd still bet on them to make it, but I'm not so sure. Seager is out for the year, Turner is out for a while, Kershaw's velocity is down, Hill and Ryu are out for a bit, Kenley's velocity is down, Puig is out, Bellinger is still a great hitter but I think is sliding in to more of what we expect - a guy that doesn't have an insane ISO and is more like a 30 HR guy, not a 40+ HR guy like he'd have been if he played the whole year. A lot of things going wrong for them. They should be back next year, but I could definitely see them not making it this year.

You're going to die on this hill, aren't you? They already had Rizzo on the DL, Bryant out for about a week, and Russell (yeah, not worth a ton but still a starter) on the shelf. I know you generally comment on their pitching staff having no depth, but they do have Montgomery if needed as a 6th starter. Eddie Butler is probably about as good as Suter if a real emergency strikes. It's true that they are a bit thin there, but they've had plenty of injuries. Epstein may have drained their farm system, but he's still shrewd in keeping replacement-level options available in some capacity.

The NL has started to turn into what the AL was the past 5 or so years. The last few years, there were about 6 teams trying and the rest were tanking or just bad in the NL while in the AL you had only 2-3 teams that were not trying or not good. This stuff is cyclical, of course, and here we are. The Braves, Phillies, D-Backs (last year), Rockies (last year), Brewers (gradual) all coming of age has made the middle of the pack much more interesting. I've always thought the Pirates are pretty well run in the past few years, so even their downturn years, they may stay competitive. What's really interesting is that I think the Padres and Reds may be coming out of their slumber in the next year or two. Of course, the Nats, Rockies, or Cards or somebody in the mix could collapse, but it may get even more competitive. The Marlins seem to be the only team that are fairly far off from competing but they'll assuredly be back in the mix in 3 years. I guess the Reds also do have the feel of failing their tank/rebuild and going right back into another one. Half of their guys have come up and are not all that impressive (yet) and they've got Senzel and others waiting in the wings, but it may not be enough given that Votto is going to start his decline soon.

Orf, but he still projects to Sogard-esque MLB numbers.

I'd imagine that he's taking games where we have a lead in the 7th, where I'd guess the winning % is something like 85% for the average team, to 95%. Not only is he a dominant pitcher, but it also trickles down that you can use other good pitchers in the next-highest leverage spots. I have nothing backing it up, but my suggestion is that he's going to win you a handful of 1 or 2 run games (the 85% to 95%) note above. He may be a 5 or 6 WAR type guy but it would be really hard to quantify.

I think the assumed issue is that there will be games where teams can foul off the fastball/slider enough to boost his pitch count or finally start to get to it 2x or 3x around the order since he doesn't have a changeup like Sale. Hader is burning through innings quickly right now, I don't know if that would translate to a game he starts and if he could get through the 2nd time around an order easily without a changeup.

The 7 above average guys are all borderline MLB prospects. The bottom ones are all scrubs. I also get that you're pimping wRC+. First, that is a good thing to use. The issue is that a lot of fans are seeing the video game numbers from these guys at Colorado Springs and never would look at wRC+. Not saying anyone on this thread, but it's a general comment that overrates players to the general fan. Second, I don't think it's the best minor league judgment. A lot of guys can get by against journeyman pitching and put the ball in play at a much better clip. This is coming completely from a guess, but I don't think wRC+ projects any better really than avg/OBP necessarily. A lot of it is K/BB% combined with those things, I'd think.

Ivan De Jesus had a 136 wRC+ last year in AAA for Colorado Springs. His previous years in AAA, he had a wRC+ of: 2015: 125 2014: 109 2013: 134 2012: 145 Not out of line at all. Guilty as charged to not really seeing that DeJesus was a that good hitter of a hitter at other stops in the minors. That said, I've noted that I think Nottingham has the potential to have a Zunino or Iannetta type career. The original premise that we can use the first month of 2018 to project him closer to Mejia is a bit out of wack, is all I'm saying.

It's literally 50 plate appearances in the best hitting environment possibly in any league of baseball where he has a .500 BABIP. He has essentially not played on the road this year. I'm sure he could hit .280/.340/.500 in Colorado Springs. If his K% changes, then we can start to talk about a change/improvement. The fact that he's hitting pretty well tells me he could maybe put on an MLB uniform for an extended period of time. Beyond that, it doesn't say much. Brett Phillips crushes CS. Ivan De Jesus does. Brinson hit .331 last year. Garrett Cooper hit .360 last year. Eric Sogard put up a .937 OPS hitting .330. I am literally having a hard time finding someone that got an extended stay there that didn't hit around .300 with all-star caliber numbers other than pitchers. Nieuwenhuis is basically the only sub-.800 OPS regular in 2017 and he's getting back on track in 2018. Nieuwenhuis is in Tacoma now. I agree that Colorado Springs is a hitter's paradise. But you seem to be writing off Nottingham as a AAAA player, while saying his Colorado Springs numbers are empty. Personally, I think that isn't fair to a 23-year-old catcher. We're talking about 50 freaking plate appearances. I'm just saying that I'm not going to call it turning the corner. Take a look at Brett Phillips' numbers there and also Cooper and Brinson. Those guys have larger samples at Colorado Springs and they are not maintaining those .330 batting averages in the pros. They aren't facing journeyman pitchers in cavernous ballparks where every time you make contact it falls for a hit anymore. Now, you can use logic to project those guys in the majors. Phillips may always be a AAAA bat but has potential to be a good power/low average mainstay in the majors if he improves. Brinson is going to struggle to hit early but has a chance to be a star. Cooper is probably a AAAA righty platoon hitter. All of those guys crushed CS for a long time. The fact that they all did what they were supposed to there basically just tells you that they are definitely good enough to be good AAA hitters. That's about it. When you rate someone, you have to take weight off of their gaudy stats at Colorado Springs. Because if you put that into the formula just like any other stop that someone would make in the minors, guys like Ivan De Jesus would be studs.

Guess we'll have to agree to disagree. But it's not that I dislike Mejia. He's a great prospect that any team would be lucky to have. I'm sure he'll turn it around, but he's been bad so far this year in AAA. I just think penalizing Nottingham for doing exactly what he's supposed to be doing isn't fair to him as a prospect. And, to me at least, his existence in the Brewers system would make giving up a ton of value for a guy like Mejia a poor investment. Maybe I'm wrong, but I just don't think Mejia is a "can't miss" guy. I'm not penalizing Nottingham for it. I'm just choosing to put very little stock in a small sample in an ideal environment. Same goes for Mejia. First time regularly in AAA. He can turn it around. Do we think Domingo Santana is a 0 HR, sub .600 OPS hitter? Maybe Santana isn't the guy we saw last year, but I think that he's going to get back up towards that .800 level at least, right? Give it time.

No, he didn't stink. You just brought up the BABIP argument, so I'll throw it back at you here. Nottingham had absolutely terrible luck last year, with a .255 BABIP to prove it. That's about 70 points off his career average. And despite that, he was still above average for the league, with a 103 wRC+. Not to mention the vast improvements on defense. He still hit .209 (with a good OBP given his average). Bump that BABIP up to normal and what, you've got a .250/.340 type of season? Like I said, a season like that does not disqualify him from getting to the majors, that's pretty standard for a power-hitting catcher. He's still young enough that he could really come of age in the next few years. I just need more than 50 plate appearances on the moon to tell me that...and it's very improbable that he catches Mejia in terms of hitting the ball.

That's kind of a facile argument though. Many players do hit well in Colorado Springs, that's true, but at the same time, you can't dismiss performance out of hand without considering other factors. Nottingham's wRC+, which normalizes production for league and park factors, is 199 so far. In other words, he's been excellent and about twice as good as the average player. I don't think anyone expects Nottingham to maintain this, especially given his BABIP as you noted. But even depsite just throwing on a Sky Sox jersey, he's been lights out. Mejia's wRC+ so far this year is 40, which is awful. I'm not trying to argue Nottingham is a superior prospect to Mejia or anything - I don't think he is. However, context, and not just superficial context, is key. It's literally 50 plate appearances in the best hitting environment possibly in any league of baseball where he has a .500 BABIP. He has essentially not played on the road this year. I'm sure he could hit .280/.340/.500 in Colorado Springs. If his K% changes, then we can start to talk about a change/improvement. The fact that he's hitting pretty well tells me he could maybe put on an MLB uniform for an extended period of time. Beyond that, it doesn't say much. Brett Phillips crushes CS. Ivan De Jesus does. Brinson hit .331 last year. Garrett Cooper hit .360 last year. Eric Sogard put up a .937 OPS hitting .330. I am having a hard time finding someone that got an extended stay there that didn't hit around .300 with all-star caliber numbers other than pitchers. Nieuwenhuis is basically the only sub-.800 OPS regular in 2017 and he's getting back on track in 2018.

Basically every player that puts on a Colorado Springs uniform "destroys AAA." Even with those gaudy, BABIP-inflated stats, Nottingham is striking out 25% of the time, which is pretty much the norm over his minor league career. Mejia is striking out a bit more early this year, but generally has been at 15%. That's a huge difference. Mejia probably profiles to a .280-.300 guy with 20-25 HR and a .360 OBP. Potentially a prime Jonathan Lucroy-type bat. Nottingham, while he still has time to turn it around, profiles to a .230 guy with 15 HR and a .300 OBP. Maybe a poor man's Mike Zunino or a Chris Iannetta if he actually even makes it. They aren't in the same galaxy currently. I think you are looking at absolute best case for Mejia and worst case for Nottingham, but to each his own. AAA numbers are AAA numbers, and when comparing the two age wise, Nottingham is destroying Mejia right now. It's not Nottingham's fault that he's playing his home games in a hitter's paradise. But we've seen offensive prospects fail there, too, so writing off his numbers completely as a product of where he plays isn't fair at all. But where in the world are you getting those prospective power numbers from for Mejia? The guy has never profiled as a power hitter, and his very slight frame (for a catcher at least) lends credibility to that. I think if can hit .290-.300 with 10 HRs and a .350 OBP in a full season, that's his ceiling. And that small frame is an injury concern to me. Would I trade Nottingham for Mejia? Yeah, probably, just because hit hit tool is significantly better, and his contact skills would be a nice contrast to the "All or nothing" approach that many of this team's current hitters have. I'm just saying that the two of them are not a night and day difference in prospect value, in my opinion. Due to Nottingham's stint in the majors, he has essentially not played any road games in the minors this year (and the road games are good in the PCL as well) so that is contributing. You're literally elevating Nottingham based on 50 plate appearances where he has a .500 BABIP. I could spend several hours picking out AAAA caliber players that hit .300+ with Colorado Springs. I'd put some stock into Nottingham's gaudy stats if he didn't have the exact same K% that he's always had. This is like comparing Corey Ray to Lewis Brinson and saying they look about the same for MLB projection, which I'm not even sure is fair because I think Mejia's majors production is more of a certainty that Brinson's, IMO. Where am I getting the HR power from Mejia? He hit 14 HR in 92 games at age 21 last year. Nottingham at age 21 (AA): 112 games, 456 PA, 11 HR, .234/.295/.347 Mejia at age 21 (AA): 92 games, 383 PA, 14 HR, .297/.346/.490 Nottingham had to repeat AA (and still stunk) at age 22. Mejia is now at AAA at age 22. So Mejia looks like a better HR hitter than Nottingham.

Nottingham is 23 and destroying AAA. Mejia does profile with a higher average than Nottingham, but Nottingham profiles with better power. I know we almost traded for him once, but I guess I don't see the infatuation with this guy ... especially with the ransom the Indians would likely put on him. Basically every player that puts on a Colorado Springs uniform "destroys AAA." Even with those gaudy, BABIP-inflated stats, Nottingham is striking out 25% of the time, which is pretty much the norm over his minor league career. Mejia is striking out a bit more early this year, but generally has been at 15%. That's a huge difference. Mejia probably profiles to a .280-.300 guy with 20-25 HR and a .360 OBP. Potentially a prime Jonathan Lucroy-type bat. Nottingham, while he still has time to turn it around, profiles to a .230 guy with 15 HR and a .300 OBP. Maybe a poor man's Mike Zunino or a Chris Iannetta if he actually even makes it to the majors for a long-term stay. They aren't in the same galaxy currently offensively.

I’m not sure we have what it takes in terms of players we’d actually trade.

Unfortunately, I think they've already made that move with Saladino. And to a lesser extent Blanco. You're right that those guys may be options as the next heir to the throne of garbage, but it would be nice to aim a little bit higher. Phillips doesn't do much for me, but I could at least imagine a scenario where he puts up a .750 OPS. The rest of the guys, it would take a 2017 Sogard-esque string of luck for that to happen. There aren't a ton of decent 2B just lying around, but maybe someone in the Neil Walker tier of player is available.

Its noteworthy that his flyball % jumped 10% last season which is part of the reason he showed some power output. But basically if the downside is we replace Eric Sogard with Eric Sogard? I can live with that to see if Orf can provide something more. This should be their line of thinking with pretty much any young infielder to replace Sogard. We know what Eric is, terrible to slightly less terrible sometimes. Maybe Orf is as bad or worse than Sogard. Maybe he's better, but we won't know that until we see what he can do. All of this is fine, but what it tells me is that I'd rather go out and make an early season acquisition, potentially. Maybe not time to completely panic, but I'm suggesting that there's a pretty high probability that Orf will not be much of an upgrade over Sogard. That is evidenced by his earlier minors stats and the fact that the Brewers' organization has never given him a major league chance (with not much blocking him) and I believe that he has been exposed to the rule 5 and never picked. Maybe "slightly better than Sogard" is enough to hold us over until the deadline, but I guess one could call Brandon Phillips or see if a team is willing to throw away an aging/blocked lower tier utility IF for a song.

I'm also not sure that I'd be too enthused about Orf. He couldn't slug anywhere prior to being 27/28 years old playing in Colorado Springs/Pacific Coast League. The .320/.390 can turn into .250/.310 with no slugging very quickly against MLB pitching and defense if you can't hit it where they ain't when other teams have their outfielders halfway in towards the infield against you.

Disclaimer A: I'd absolutely go with Dubon and would've before the season. Disclaimer B: I realize Sogard is older and Dubon is closer to a prime age. All of that said: Take a look at Sogard's minor league stats compared to Dubon. Basically the same player and Sogard was arguably better given K/BB rates. Now, that isn't a perfect comparison. Not all guys are even coming out of the minors. But I'd also pump the brakes on Dubon hype. Again, though, I'd rather go for him simply for what we saw today. I would just completely assume that Dubon is more of a defensive asset at this point in his career and make that play.

With Feliz, you had a stretch of good years and a former elite asset (100 MPH arm). You had the time to try to wait it out and see if he got it back. With Sogard you've got an OK defensive player (at 2B) that has been a basement level hitter except for 2 miracle months last year. Please use said data to pull the plug much faster.

I hope this is Sogard's final plate appearance with the Brewers. Make it a good one!